Welcome back traders. The week is almost done! We've had some solid days so far. I didn't get the blog up yesterday with some uploading issues so here's a look at our last two days results. 

Nothing really to complain about. I.V. is super low this week so we've worked some debit trades into the mix and that has helped.  We are starting today with another one and this will likely be the "go to" setup for us the rest of this week. 

​Let's take a look at the markets:
​Buy mode is still holding tight.

We are now back to being pinned to the ATH zone. 

Check out the number of new ATH's this year.  The S&P 500 closed at an all-time high today for the 52nd time this year. $SPX The only years with more all-time highs: 1995 (77) 2021 (70) 1964 (65) 2017 (62) 2014 (53) 1961 (53)

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.18%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.33% this morning as investors digested Donald Trump’s latest cabinet appointments and awaited a flurry of pre-Thanksgiving holiday U.S. economic data.
Trump appointed Jamieson Greer as the U.S. Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett as director of the National Economic Council. Greer had been involved in shaping Trump’s trade policy decisions during his first term.
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s November 6-7 meeting, released Tuesday, revealed that officials broadly supported a careful approach to future interest rate cuts as the economy remains robust and inflation gradually eases. “Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2% and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time,” according to the FOMC minutes. Also, the minutes showed that some participants suggested the Fed could pause rate cuts if inflation remains elevated, while others advocated for quicker rate reductions should the economy or labor market deteriorate. In addition, policymakers noted uncertainty around the so-called neutral rate, a level of policy that neither restricts nor stimulates economic growth, as a reason for caution. This uncertainty “complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually.”
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended higher. NRG Energy (NRG) climbed over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Jeffries upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $113. Also, Eli Lilly (LLY) gained more than +4% after the Biden administration proposed a rule that would require the U.S. government to cover weight-loss drugs through the Medicare and Medicaid systems. In addition, Semtech (SMTC) surged over +18% after the company posted upbeat Q3 results and issued above-consensus Q4 guidance. On the bearish side, Amgen (AMGN) fell more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after highly anticipated Phase 2 data on its experimental obesity drug, MariTide, showed that it failed to significantly outperform competitors.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index jumped to a 16-month high of 111.7, compared with the 111.8 consensus. Also, the U.S. September S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +4.6% y/y from +5.2% y/y in August, weaker than expectations of +4.7% y/y and the smallest annual increase in a year. At the same time, U.S. new home sales plunged -17.3% m/m to a nearly 2-year low of 610K in October, weaker than expectations of 725K.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated on Tuesday that “inflation is still printing above our 2% target, so we need to continue to work to bring that down.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 66.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 33.7% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in December.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y in October, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. Commerce Department’s second estimate of gross domestic product. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, in line with initial estimates.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate October Personal Spending to be +0.4% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.3% m/m, compared to September’s figures of +0.5% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data will be released today. Economists forecast October Durable Goods Orders at -0.8% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.2% m/m, compared to the prior figures of 0.0% m/m and +0.5% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will come in today. Economists expect the October figure to be -2.1% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +7.4% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 215K, compared to last week’s number of 213K.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.262%, down -1.00%.

BTC: Bitcoin finally get a little retrace. We were able to get a nice trade in yesterday on both BTC and ETH. The setup doesn't look quite as easy today but I'm going to try hard to get another BTC and ETH trade on today. 95,769 is current resistnance with 92,000 working as support. 

Let's have a great day today! See you all in the trading room. I hope you all have a nice Thanksgiving. I'm a big believer in gratitude and I'm super grateful for all our members of our trading community. I appreciate you all.

Welcome back to a new, shortened trading week! The markets will take off Thursday and have a shotened session Friday so that will damper our ability to do most of our normal weekly setups. We did have a wonderful day last Friday. Check our results below: 

Let's take a look at the markets Technicals looks strong coming into the week.

Fridays strength continued to push us higher. 

​For the first time in a while, the SPY is showing some slight relative weakness, trailing behind the other major indexes in percentage gain terms and closing the week at $595.51 (+1.66%). However, the technical setup remains clear: a textbook support/resistance flip, with the 21-EMA providing added support.

​The QQQ ended the week at $505.79 (+1.87%), finding support exactly where expected, at the October high. However, the lack of follow-through raises some concerns. Despite a constructive consolidation above the 21-EMA throughout the week, it failed to close last Friday’s gap down, so bulls will want to see a decisive move higher in the near term, especially with NVIDIA’s earnings report in the rear view.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.45%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.57% this morning as investors welcomed Scott Bessent’s nomination as U.S. Treasury Secretary, while also awaiting the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting as well as the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and other key economic data later in the week.
Market participants viewed Donald Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary as a prudent choice that could bring greater stability to the U.S. economy and financial markets. Bessent, the head of macro hedge fund Key Square Group, has signaled support for Trump’s tariff and tax cut plans, but investors anticipate he will prioritize economic and market stability over pursuing political gains.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended higher. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after announcing that it expects to file its delayed 10-K and 10-Q reports in the period available under Nasdaq rules. Also, Copart (CPRT) advanced more than +10% after reporting better-than-expected FQ1 revenue. In addition, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) surged over +14% after the AI enterprise search company posted upbeat FQ2 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Intuit (INTU) slumped more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the tax and accounting software company issued below-consensus FQ2 guidance.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to a 4-month high of 48.8 in November, in line with expectations. Also, the U.S. November S&P Global services PMI climbed to a 2-1/2 year high of 57.0, better than expectations of 55.2. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s U.S. November consumer sentiment index was revised lower to 71.8 from the preliminary reading of 73.0, weaker than expectations of 73.7.
“The U.S. flash PMIs for November were bullish in aggregate thanks to strength in services,” stated Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli, noting that the details indicated a goldilocks scenario, “with favorable growth developments and cooling price pressures.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday. Also, the stock markets will close early on Black Friday, with trading ending at 1 p.m. Eastern Time.
The highlight of this holiday-shortened week will be the October reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Also, investors will be monitoring a spate of other economic data releases, including U.S. GDP (second estimate), the CB Consumer Confidence Index, Building Permits, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., New Home Sales, the Richmond Manufacturing Index, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories (preliminary), the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and Crude Oil Inventories.
Market participants will also focus on earnings reports from several high-profile companies. Prominent tech firms such as Dell Technologies (DELL), HP Inc. (HPQ), Analog Devices (ADI), Workday (WDAY), and CrowdStrike (CRWD), along with retailers like Best Buy (BBY), Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS), and Macy’s (M), are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.
In addition, investors will closely monitor the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the November 6-7 meeting on Tuesday. The report will offer details on the policymakers’ discussion during the November meeting, where they decided to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, and may shed light on the central bank’s future rate-cut plans.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 56.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 43.8% chance of no rate change at December’s policy meeting.
The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.343%, down -1.52%.

The one day VIX is buried and not giving much hope for credit trades to start the week.

While the last few days have been bullish and our technicals and chart patterns are all flashing bullish, I'm not carryng a high conviction either way coming into this shortened week. This is a week that a lot of traders take off. 

Welcome to Friday! We almost made it. What a crazy week. It's been one of the lowest capital outlays on an average daily basis that we've had in a long time. The price action has been super tough to predict and "get on board" with so my capital commitment has been super small. Our results have been pretty much in line with norms in terms of ROI but in terms of actual dollars its been low. Here's our results from yesterday. For all the frustration it caused we still had a good day and everything we touched worked. See our results below: 

Let's take a look at the markets: Technicals are still bullish. It seems to me, the market wants to shake off the Geo-political war escalation and continue its march higher, even though the bear have been sporadically pounding the sell orders in at random times during the day.

Intra-day its been super choppy but the last three days have been clearly bullish 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.24% this morning as weak Eurozone PMI data cast doubt on the health of the global economy, while investors braced for U.S. business activity data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed in the green. Snowflake (SNOW) jumped over +32% after the cloud data storage and analytics company posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance. Also, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged more than +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the server maker submitted a compliance plan to Nasdaq and said it could regain compliance within an extension period to file its 10-K annual report. In addition, Deere (DE) climbed over +8% after the maker of agricultural and construction equipment reported better-than-expected FQ4 results. On the bearish side, Alphabet (GOOGL) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the Justice Department argued to a judge that Google must divest its Chrome browser and implement other measures to end its monopoly on online search.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell to -5.5 in November, weaker than expectations of 7.4. Also, U.S. October existing home sales rose +3.4% m/m to 3.96M, stronger than expectations of 3.95M. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.4% m/m in October, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell -6K to a 6-1/2 month low of 213K, compared with the 220K expected.
New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that U.S. economic growth has been “very good” and “the disinflationary process will continue.” Williams added that he expects “it will be appropriate over time to bring the fed-funds rate down closer to more normal or neutral levels.” Also, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said he anticipates inflation will continue to decline across the world’s largest economy. In addition, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reaffirmed his support for additional interest rate cuts and his willingness to implement them more gradually.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 62.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 37.2% chance of no rate change at December’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the November Manufacturing PMI will come in at 48.8, compared to last month’s value of 48.5.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which arrived at 55.0 in October. Economists foresee the preliminary November figure to be 55.2.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 74.0 in November, compared to 70.5 in October.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.388%, down -1.04%.

Yesterday was not very productive for me. It started weill with the selloff helping our 0DTE debit setups but the rebound caught the NDX stand alone calls and that was that. Our Nat gas trade also pressured us. My results are below: 

Today's blog will be a truncated version. I'm having an update issue with my charting.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.20%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.09% this morning as investors looked ahead to a raft of U.S. economic data that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on monetary policy.
Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after the chip giant’s Q4 revenue guidance failed to meet lofty expectations of some investors.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed. Target (TGT) plunged over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the retailer posted downbeat Q3 results and cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Also, Qualcomm (QCOM) slid more than -6% to lead chip stocks lower after Susquehanna cut its price target on the stock to $210 from $230. In addition, Fabrinet (FN) slumped over -9% after B. Riley Securities downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $178. On the bullish side, Keysight Technologies (KEYS) climbed more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and provided upbeat FQ1 guidance.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Wednesday that it would likely be appropriate for the Fed to gradually lower interest rates toward a more neutral stance, citing progress on inflation and the strength of the labor market. She added that the “magnitude and timing” of rate cuts would depend on incoming data and the economic outlook. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she prefers to proceed cautiously with further interest rate cuts as progress in reducing inflation has slowed. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that more rate cuts are necessary, but policymakers should proceed with caution to avoid moving either too quickly or too slowly.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 59.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 40.9% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in December.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Intuit (INTU), Deere (DE), Copart (CPRT), and Ross Stores (ROST) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will stand at 6.3, compared to last month’s value of 10.3.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 220K, compared to last week’s number of 217K.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will come in today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 3.94M in October, compared to 3.84M in September.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists expect the October figure to be -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.384%, down -0.50%.
​

Welcome to Wednesday traders! Yesterday was another low conviction day for me. We came close to having a great day but my NDX calls finished just outside the profit zone.  Fortunately scalping helped. Here's my results below: 

Let's take a look at the market

We've rotated back to buy mode technically. We are still at a critical level that will likely determine our future directional move. You can see that the SPY is a bit stronger but all the indices we trade are still sitting right around the level we were at right before the election bump.

​December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are trending up +0.14% this morning as investors shifted their focus to a highly anticipated earnings report from AI darling Nvidia.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) soared over +31% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the server maker appointed an independent auditor and submitted a compliance plan to Nasdaq. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Stifel and Truist raised their price targets on the stock. In addition, Walmart (WMT) rose +3% after the retail giant posted better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Incyte Corp. (INCY) slumped over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after halting enrollment in a Phase 2 trial of its chronic spontaneous urticaria candidate targeting MRGPRX2 due to findings from preclinical toxicology.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. housing starts fell -3.1% m/m to 1.311M in October, weaker than expectations of 1.340M. Also, U.S. October building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m to 1.416M, weaker than expectations of 1.440M.
Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said on Tuesday that it remains uncertain how far interest rates can fall, although the initial cuts by the Fed are a sign of confidence that inflation is moving back to its 2% target. “The decision to lower rates is an acknowledgment of the ... growing confidence that inflation is on a path to reach the Fed’s 2% objective - a confidence based in part on signs that both labor and product markets have come into better balance in recent months,” Schmid said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 59.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 40.9% chance of no rate change at the December FOMC meeting.
Market participants are awaiting Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close, to gauge future demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, particularly after The Information reported on Sunday that these chips were experiencing overheating issues when connected to server racks designed to hold up to 72 chips.
“After an exhausting election cycle, options show that NVDA results will be the most important catalyst left for the remainder of the year, notable, more so than NFP, CPI, and FOMC,” Stefano Pascale, equity derivatives strategist at Barclays, said in a note Tuesday. 
Prominent companies like TJX (TJX), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Target (TGT), and Snowflake (SNOW) are also set to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, investors will likely focus on U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data due later in the day. Economists estimate this figure to be -0.1M, compared to last week’s value of 2.1M.
In addition, investors will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.417%, up +0.87%.

I'll see you all in the trading room shortly! 

Welcome  back traders! Yesterday was a strange one. The premium wasn't there and the directional bias wasn't there. The price action was jerky and hard to gauge. I pulled the profit early on most of our day trades which obviously resulted in less of a capture rate. My day trades made $900 bucks. Is that good or bad? Truthfully I wasn't happy. Actually I was frustrated but, at the end of the day I think perspective is important. Way back when we started the program to live trade the SPX we had a lofty goal of making $1,000 a day. It was a bit of a pipe dream and while we did hit it from time to time it wasn't really expected. Fast forward to today. We have refined our approach and improved our strategies and now we are unhappy if we don't make $2,000-$3,000 a day. For even our members of "higher means" $1,000 a day is meaningful. Sometimes I forget, we don't have to shoot for the moon everyday. Slow and steady wins the race. Here's a look at our results.

Let's take a look at the markets. Yesterdays snap back wasn't enough to bring our technicals back to bullish.

We are still effectively sitting on that "fill the gap" spot. This means we are still in wait and see mode for direction. The market will either use this as its launching pad upward, once again or it will lose this support, in which case the downside could be substantial and continue for a while.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.40%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.32% this morning as risk sentiment took a hit after Russian President Vladimir Putin updated the country’s nuclear doctrine, while investors awaited fresh data on the U.S. housing market and an earnings report from retail giant Walmart.
Markets were rattled by news that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in response to a large-scale conventional attack on its territory, including by drones. Russia will consider aggression against itself or its allies by a non-nuclear state, supported by nuclear powers, as a collective attack, according to the document posted online. This follows U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy to target military sites in Russia using U.S.-made long-range weapons. A report from RBC-Ukraine indicated that the first such strike has occurred.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 as the company approached a deadline to either file its delayed 10-K annual report or submit a plan to file the form to Nasdaq to prevent delisting. Also, Tesla (TSLA) climbed more than +5% after Bloomberg reported that President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team will make a federal framework for self-driving cars one of the Transportation Department’s priorities. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gained about +3% after International Business Machines announced it would deploy the company’s Instinct MI300X accelerators as a service on IBM Cloud. On the bearish side, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) slid over -6% after an SEC filing revealed that co-founder and CEO Alexander Karp sold shares worth about $399 million from last Wednesday to last Friday. 
“Traders appear to be gauging the potential impact of a new Trump administration’s policies on the economy, and the possibility that the Fed may slow down its rate-cutting campaign,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “With a relatively light economic calendar this week, the focus will shift to earnings - especially Nvidia’s, which have the potential to dictate the market’s short-term momentum.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 64.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 35.1% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in December.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting an earnings report from AI-darling Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday to gauge future demand for its new Blackwell AI chips, particularly after The Information reported on Sunday that these chips were experiencing overheating issues when connected to server racks designed to hold up to 72 chips.
Today, retailers such as Walmart (WMT) and Lowe’s (LOW), as well as notable companies like Medtronic (MDT) and Keysight Technologies (KEYS), are slated to release their quarterly results.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data. Economists forecast October Building Permits to be 1.440M and Housing Starts to be 1.340M, compared to the prior figures of 1.425M and 1.354M, respectively.
In addition, investors are looking forward to a speech from Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.359%, down -1.27%.

It's interesting the fear and greed index is neutral. Not really giving us much of a reading either.

I'll see you all in the trading room soon! Our big Nat gas trade is now just six days out from expiration. It's generating over $1,000 dollars a day of theta at this point and looks good so far. 

Welcome back traders to a new week. I'll be trading out of Newport beach this week. There wasn't quite enough premium to get a Theta fairy on last night but we'll try again all week to get some more working. Friday was a mixed day for me. My net liq was o.k. with both our 0DTE bearish debit anchors showing nice profits but scalping killed my daily result.

We'll try to do better today.
Let's take a look at the markets. Technicals are still bearish.

For most of the indices we are right back to where we were before the Trump rally. What the election giveth...it now taketh. 

​The SPY continues to demonstrate relative strength compared to its index peers, closing just below the top of the post-election gap and ending the week at $585.75 (-2.09%). However, the daily MACD is flashing caution, with a bearish cross setting up. Should the price move lower next week, watch the aVWAP from the September low, which could serve as a crucial support level.

​The QQQ ended the week at $496.57 (-3.42%), giving back a significant portion of last week’s gains, closing below the July high, and nearly filling the entire post-election gap. With a decisive bearish MACD cross signaling the potential for further downside ahead, all eyes will be on the Anchored VWAP from the September low for a potential support level in the coming sessions.

​This week, IWM gave new meaning to the saying, “The higher they fly, the harder they fall.” After a nearly 9% gain last week, small caps led the decline among their peers, closing at $228.48 (-4.06%). Price has now dropped well into the post-election gap, with the bottom of the gap and the September low Anchored VWAP just below. For bulls, this very well might be a make-or-break level in the sessions to come.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.09%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.35% this morning as market participants looked ahead to an earnings report from semiconductor stalwart Nvidia, a new batch of U.S. economic data, and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages closed sharply lower, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 falling to 1-1/2 week lows and the blue-chip Dow dropping to a 1-week low. Applied Materials (AMAT) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the largest U.S. maker of chip-manufacturing equipment provided a disappointing FQ1 revenue forecast. Also, AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) slid more than -9% after reporting a wider-than-expected Q3 loss. In addition, Pfizer (PFE) fell over -4% after Wolfe Research initiated coverage of the stock with an Underperform rating and a $25 price target. On the bullish side, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surged more than +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after announcing that it will transfer its stock exchange listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq.
Economic data released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales grew +0.4% m/m in October, beating the +0.3% m/m consensus, while core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, edged up +0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Also, the November Empire State Manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to a 2-3/4 year high of 31.20, stronger than expectations of -0.30. In addition, U.S. industrial production fell -0.3% m/m in October, in line with expectations, while manufacturing production fell -0.5% m/m, in line with expectations. Finally, the U.S. October import price index unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated on Friday that a December interest rate cut remains on the table, highlighting that the Fed’s decision will depend on incoming data. “I do see the policy stance as being in a restrictive place, and over time normalizing that, I think, is going to be important,” Collins said. Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that if inflation continues to move toward the central bank’s 2% target, interest rates will be “a lot” lower over the next 12-18 months. However, he agreed with Fed Chair Jerome Powell, noting that policymakers are not rushing to reduce borrowing costs.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 61.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 38.4% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s December meeting.
Market participants will focus on earnings reports from several prominent companies this week, with semiconductor giant Nvidia’s (NVDA) report on Wednesday drawing the most attention. Retailers such as Walmart (WMT), Target (TGT), Lowe’s (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), and Ross Stores (ROST), along with notable companies like Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Snowflake (SNOW), Intuit (INTU), Deere (DE), and Medtronic (MDT), are also scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.
Investors will also be monitoring a spate of economic data releases this week, including the U.S. S&P Global Composite PMI (preliminary), the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), the S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, the Leading Index, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
In addition, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will be making appearances this week.
The U.S. economic data slate is mainly empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.456%, up +0.61%.

Let's take a look at the expected moves this week: Certainly not elevated but not low enough that we know we won't get any Theta fairy setups working this week. We'll look every day to see if one's viable.

I look forward to seeing you all in the trading room shortly! No big news catalysts today so the price action should be fairly "pure". We'll see if bulls can step into the action today in any meaningful way.

Welcome back traders. Well, we finally got the "crack" in the market we'd been waiting for every since the "Trump rally" exploded onto the scene. It paid off for us. We ended up cutting the losing NDX debit cover at a loss and using our scalping as a sacrificial lamb to protect our biggest NDX position but it all worked out. For the low amount of capital we used it was a home run day. Our results are below. 

The markets finally cracked. Is it a signal of a change of direction? It's still too early to tell. The downside slump has been building for the last four days. 

Technicals have turned bearish. 

The VTI is flashing a sell signal 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.58%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.90% this morning after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank was in no rush to lower interest rates, while investors geared up for a flurry of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the retail sales report.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slumped over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the embattled AI server maker delayed another quarterly 10-Q filing. Also, Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell more than -2% as the networking giant’s conservative full-year sales forecast overshadowed better-than-expected FQ1 results and upbeat FQ2 guidance. In addition, Tetra Tech (TTEK) plunged over -13% after the company provided weak full-year guidance. On the bullish side, Tapestry (TPR) climbed more than +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after announcing the termination of an $8.5 billion merger deal with Capri Holdings. Also, Walt Disney (DIS) rose over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the entertainment giant posted upbeat FQ4 results and projected high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth in FY25.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand came in at +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y in October, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y. Also, core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in October, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -4K to a 5-1/2 month low of 217K, compared with the 224K expected. 
“PPI shows inflation is waning but coming down at a gradual pace, and consistent with what Powell mentioned earlier in the month that risks to inflation and the labor market are balanced,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the U.S. economy’s recent performance has been “remarkably good” and “is not sending any signal that we need to be in a hurry to lower interest rates.” Also, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the central bank has made “great progress” but stressed that officials cannot yet declare victory. In addition, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that policymakers must maintain their focus on both the Fed’s inflation and employment goals, highlighting a cooling labor market and slower progress toward the central bank’s 2% inflation target. “If any risks arise that stall progress or reaccelerate inflation, it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts,” Kugler said. “But if the labor market slows down suddenly, it would be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the policy rate.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 62.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 37.6% chance of no rate change at the December FOMC meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that October Retail Sales will stand at +0.3% m/m, compared to the September figure of +0.4% m/m.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.5% m/m in September. Economists foresee the October figure to be +0.3% m/m.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at -0.30 in November, compared to last month’s value of -11.90. 
U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be closely monitored today. Economists forecast October Industrial Production at -0.3% m/m and Manufacturing Production at -0.5% m/m, compared to September’s figures of -0.3% m/m and -0.4% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes for October will come in today. Economists anticipate the export price index to be -0.1% m/m and the import price index to be -0.1% m/m, compared to the previous figures of -0.7% m/m and -0.4% m/m, respectively.
In addition, market participants are anticipating speeches from Boston Fed President Susan Collins and New York Fed President John Williams.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.431%, up +0.20%.

My bias or lean today is bearish. We've lost the support levels we've been focused on. Until we regain those is bearish territory. 

Welcome to Thurday! Man this week is flying by. We had a decent day yesterday. My net liq was down because of our Nat gas trade but overall is was a decent day. See our results below: 

Yesterday was a "neutral" technical rating day and I just hate those. They are incredibly hard to trade and almost impossible to pick a directional bias. We are back to a slight buy rating today but I question if it will hold. 

We are three days in on what looks like, the begining of a change of direction. It's not there...yet. We have PPI and Jobless claims this morning. They may trigger some movement.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.14%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.01% this morning as investors awaited crucial U.S. producer inflation data, remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and an earnings report from entertainment giant Disney.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) climbed over +13% after Volkswagen AG raised its investment in the electric vehicle maker by 16% to $5.8 billion. Also, Spotify Technology (SPOT) surged more than +11% after offering above-consensus Q4 guidance for operating income and monthly active users. In addition, Charter Communications (CHTR) gained over +3% after agreeing to buy Liberty Broadband in an all-stock transaction. On the bearish side, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slid more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after announcing that it cannot file its quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September, as it requires time to appoint a new auditor.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose +0.2% m/m in October, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation accelerated to +2.6% in October from +2.4% in September, in line with expectations. Also, the October core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, remained unchanged from September at +3.3% y/y, right on expectations.
“A hotter-than-expected inflation number could have convinced the Fed to stand pat at its next meeting,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “A December cut is still in the cards.”
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that, given the headline numbers from the recent consumer price report, he feels assured that inflation “is headed in the right direction.” Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that although further interest rate cuts are likely needed, policymakers should proceed cautiously, given uncertainties about the restrictiveness of current monetary policy. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem remarked that the central bank is close to achieving its inflation and employment goals, but he emphasized that officials should maintain a “moderately restrictive” policy stance as long as price growth exceeds the Fed’s 2% target. Finally, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said, “While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 79.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 20.9% chance of no rate change at the December FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech about the economy at an event hosted by the Dallas Regional Chamber later today. Also, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and New York Fed President John Williams will speak today.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Disney (DIS), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Brookfield (BN) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. October PPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, compared to the previous figures of 0.0% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely watched today. Economists expect October figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will come in today. Economists forecast this figure to stand at 224K, up from last week’s 221K.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 0.400M, compared to last week’s value of 2.149M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.475%, up +0.49%.

The VTI is what I consider to be, one of the best gauges of what the "overall" market is doing. It just triggered a sell signal on Stoch.

I'm excited to see you all in the live trading room. Let's see what PPI does to the futures here shortly!

We had an excellent day yesterday. Everything clicked for us. These are the "perfect" days when trading seems like the best job in the world. See our results below: 

Before we look at the markets I'd like to share some things I'm focusing on.
​Over half of equity ETFs are trading at least +2 standard deviations above their respective 200-day average

​The divergence between earnings revisions and S&P 500 performance suggests that investors are looking beyond current analyst estimates, potentially betting on stronger-than-expected corporate performance

​The S&P 500's CAPE Ratio has crossed above 38 for the 3rd time in history and is now higher than 98% of historical valuations

All this doesn't mean we are due for a crash but it does mean we are super stretched on valuations and "priced to perfection."

Let's look at the market. With the weakness yesterday and this morning in the futures we are back to the dreaded neutral rating. Very hard to guesstimate the directional move on these days. CPI will likely guide us.
​

Are we starting a retrace or is this just a pause?

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.19% this morning as investors held back from making big bets ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended lower. Mosaic (MOS) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q3 results. Also, homebuilder stocks lost ground after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield jumped, with Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) falling more than -3%. In addition, Novavax (NVAX) slid over -6% after cutting its full-year revenue guidance. On the bullish side, Tyson Foods (TSN) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the food giant reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results. Also, Honeywell International (HON) rose over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after activist investor Elliott Investment Management built a stake of more than $5 billion and called for a breakup of the industrial giant.
“We are on watch for potential profit taking, consolidation, or even correction for U.S. equities heading into the first quarter of the new year. Upward momentum remains strong and investor sentiment favorable, but stocks are once again overbought/extended across multiple timeframes,” said Dan Wantrobski at Janney Montgomery Scott. 
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated Tuesday that the U.S. economy is “in a good place.” “The Fed is in a position to respond appropriately regardless of how the economy evolves,” he added. Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that the central bank might pause its rate-cutting cycle in December if inflation surprises to the upside. “In my judgment, we are still at a modestly contractionary stance, but ultimately the economy will guide us, in terms of how far we are needing to go” in cutting rates, Kashkari said.
In other news, the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, released on Tuesday, showed that U.S. banks saw weaker demand for a key category of business loans in the third quarter, while demand for consumer credit card and auto loans also softened.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 65.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 34.2% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in December.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Cisco (CSCO), Tower Semiconductor (TSEM), and CyberArk Software (CYBR) are scheduled to release their quarterly results today.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. October CPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
The U.S. Core CPI will also be closely watched today. Economists anticipate the core CPI to be +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y in October, matching September’s figures.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 55% of investors expect the market response to the consumer inflation report to be “mixed/negligible,” 31% anticipate a “risk-off” reaction, and only 14% expect “risk-on.”
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a series of speeches from Fed officials Kashkari, Williams, Logan, Schmid, and Musalem.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.414%, down -0.43%.

Let's have a great day folks. We've got QQQ puts in our scalping room that we carried over from yesterday. Those could score for us right out of the gate. It would be a nice start to the day! See you in the trading room.