The market got it's rate cut and certainly seems to like it. We continue to hit new ATH's over and over. How much more gas in the tank do the bulls have? Who knows? Certainly I don't. I had a reality check with my emotions yesterday as my wife and I talked to a good friend who got a life insurance payout. She needs the income from it to support herself and was asking if putting it all into the market right now was a good idea.  I had a visceral reaction!  These valuation levels are getting scary. If you've been around long enough to have gone through the 2000 tech bubble burst and 2008 financial crisis you too may have some PTSD! This article I read early this morning is a good read. Keep some powder dry folks. That's all I'll say. 
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/18/a-stock-market-crash-may-be-just-around-the-corner/ ​

​Nasdaq has closed “overbought” on more than 90% of days in the last 4 months. That’s only happened 0.04% of the time in history. When markets get this stretched, volatility doesn’t disappear ~ it’s actually building up kinetic energy.

​Japan’s stock market falls -2.5% as Japanese bond yields extend their run into record territory. Japan is just a glimpse of what will happen to the U.S. if we do not solve our deficit spending crisis.

It might just be my optics but everything I see right now points to an overvalued market.

We had a solid day yesterday. It was a small capital allocation as I have been trading in my sons small $2,000 acct. He's home for a week and wanted to see what we could do. I think he's pretty happy with the results and it also shows we don't need to use $10,000 dollars every day to get good results. 

Let's take a look at the markets as they continue to climb and climb.
​Not surprisingly, technicals remain bullish.

What can you say? The Russell especially is on fire!

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.17% this morning, extending yesterday’s gains, while investors await a phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Trump and Xi are scheduled to speak at 9 a.m. Washington time, or 9 p.m. in Beijing. The conversation is expected to decide TikTok’s future and could also help ease trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.
“A deal for the social media app might act as a catalyst for improving the relationship between the two largest economies amid an ongoing trade war,” according to Danske Bank strategists.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow notching new record highs. Intel (INTC) jumped over +22% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Nvidia said it would invest $5 billion in the chipmaker as part of a partnership to jointly develop PC and data center chips. Also, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) surged more than +12% after the cybersecurity company gave a strong fiscal 2027 forecast for net new annual recurring revenue growth. In addition, 89bio (ETNB) spiked over +85% after Roche agreed to acquire the company for $3.5 billion. On the bearish side, FactSet Research Systems (FDS) plunged more than -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS and issued soft FY26 guidance.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to an 8-month high of 23.2 in September, stronger than expectations of 1.7. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -33K to 231K, compared with the 241K expected. At the same time, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.5% m/m in August, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m.
“The Federal Reserve is cutting interest rates during a time when stocks are at record highs and the economy is still growing. This dynamic is bullish for stocks,” said Robert Schein at Blanke Schein Wealth Management. 
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8.1% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in October.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. According to data from SpotGamma, options tied to about $6.3 trillion in stocks and equity indexes are set to expire today, making the September expiration one of the three largest triple-witching events on record. However, market watchers are largely downplaying its significance.
“The quarterly option expiry is increasingly becoming a non-event, especially when volatility is low,” said Garrett DeSimone, head quant at OptionMetrics. “So don’t expect big price jumps [on] the Monday post expiry.”
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will likely focus on a speech from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.122%, up +0.46%.

My lean or bias today is bullish because...well, because what else can you be? This ride will stop at some point and reverse. It always does. The unanswerable questions are when and by how much?

We shared some insightful training Monday of this week and yesterday. Mondays are usually the designated days for our trainings. I'm not sure what will be on the agenda for this coming Monday but I'm sure it will be helpful! Be sure to tune into the zoom feed then! 

​The SPX continues to edge higher toward fresh highs, but the seasonality score has recently slipped back into negative territory after holding neutral-to-positive for much of early September.
This shift suggests that short-term seasonal patterns may be less supportive over the coming sessions, even as price action remains firm. In the near term, traders may want to watch whether the index can sustain its upward momentum against this seasonal headwind, as further weakness in the score could signal a period of consolidation or slower gains.

Let's take a look at our intra-day levels for today on /ES: NOTE: We are rolling over now to the Dec. Futures contract. That is the /ESZ5. Note the difference in levels. Charts will look more "normalzed" after a full days trading data is compiled. 6712, 6725, 6730, 6746 are resistance zones. 6699, 6681, 6675, 6671, 6660 are support.

Keep in mind Volume profile level on the 15 min. chart is around 6095.
I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's have a great finish to the week!

Well, we got our 25bp rate cut that most expected. What does that mean going forward now? Markets fluctuated yesterday but ended relatively flat. Futures are up this morning. We do have jobless claims incoming this morning but the market seems to like the cut so far. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the year pans out. The market has baked in two more cuts this year yet 10 FED members are looking for two rate cuts. 7 are looking for zero. 2 are looking for one. That doesn't seem like a lock on two more cuts to me. We'll see. That's why we show up each day.

We had no results yesterday as we placed a 1DTE trade that we'll continue to work today.
Let's take a look at the markets price action. 
Technicals are holding bullish.

Markets are hanging on to the ATH zone. 

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.84%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +1.10% this morning, pointing to a sharply higher open on Wall Street after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since December and signaled more reductions could follow soon.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to lower the target range for the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 4.00%-4.25%. Newly sworn-in Governor Stephen Miran was the only policymaker to dissent, favoring a larger half-point rate cut. In a post-meeting statement, policymakers said the unemployment rate had “edged up but remains low,” adding that “downside risks to employment have risen.” At the same time, officials acknowledged that inflation has “moved up and remains somewhat elevated.” Policymakers also updated their economic projections and now anticipate two more quarter-point cuts this year. They project one quarter-point cut in 2026 and another in 2027.
At a press conference, Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s dual mandate challenges, noting that inflation pressures persist while labor-market data weakens, meaning “there’s no risk-free path” forward. Mr. Powell struck a cautious tone on the outlook for additional rate moves, saying the Fed was now in a “meeting-by-meeting situation.”
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed mixed. Nvidia (NVDA) fell over -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the Financial Times reported that China’s internet watchdog had banned the country’s biggest technology firms from buying Nvidia’s AI chips. Also, Uber Technologies (UBER) slid nearly -5% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after rival Lyft and Alphabet’s Waymo announced plans to expand their fully autonomous ride-hailing service to Nashville in 2026. In addition, General Mills (GIS) dropped about -0.8% after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ1 revenue. On the bullish side, Workday (WDAY) climbed more than +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after activist investor Elliott Investment Management disclosed a $2 billion stake in the company.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. August housing starts fell -8.5% m/m to 1.307 million, weaker than expectations of 1.370 million, while building permits, a proxy for future construction, unexpectedly fell -3.7% m/m to a 5-1/4-year low of 1.312 million, weaker than expectations of 1.370 million.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.2% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in October.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists anticipate that the Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 1.7 in September, compared to last month’s value of -0.3.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will also be closely monitored today. Investors will be watching to see whether the prior week’s jump was a harbinger of a sustained downturn in the labor market or was merely a one-off. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 241K, compared to last week’s number of 263K.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists expect the August figure to drop -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.1% m/m.
On the earnings front, notable companies such as FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN), and Darden Restaurants (DRI) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.047%, down -0.74%.

​The SPX continues to grind higher, now holding near the top of its recent range, with the momentum score firmly elevated at 5. This marks one of the strongest readings over the past few months, signaling sustained buying pressure despite intermittent pullbacks along the way.
In the short term, this consistent momentum suggests that dips may find support quickly, though traders will want to monitor if the score can remain at these elevated levels any sharp downtick could hint at waning strength and open the door for consolidation.

​

This isn't a good sign of how consumers are doing. 

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly! 

Do we get a rate cut as most believe? Is it the 25bp that's expected or a more aggressive 50bp? Most important (probably) will be what Powell says about the future. How hawkish or dovish he'll be. This will set the stage for the next two potential decisions for the rest of this year. Regardless of all this, it should be a good day for traders with ample movement to trade. The options market is implying a .07% move for the day. Come trade with us. These days are usually pretty good.

My lean or bias yesterday was for a neutral day will little movement and that's exactly what we got. We traded small and it was a successful and non eventful day. We placed a 0DTE on the QQQ's which expired fully profitable and a butterfly on the SPX which doubled in value. See our results below:

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.01%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.04% this morning as investors refrain from making any big bets ahead of a highly anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Stock index futures’ subdued tone reflects investor caution over how the Fed will signal the interest-rate path, with a quarter-point cut at this meeting and three more by April already priced in.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended slightly lower. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. Also, Rocket Lab (RKLB) tumbled more than -12% after the rocket launch company announced a $750 million at-the-market equity offering. In addition, Dave & Buster’s Entertainment (PLAY) plunged over -16% after the arcade-restaurant operator posted downbeat Q2 results. On the bullish side, chip stocks gained ground, with ON Semiconductor (ON) rising more than +3% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Marvell Technology (MRVL) advancing over +2%.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales climbed +0.6% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m, and core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, grew +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m. Also, U.S. August industrial production unexpectedly rose +0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m, and manufacturing production unexpectedly rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.2% m/m. In addition, the U.S. import price index unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of -0.2% m/m.
“The American consumer appears to be in good spirits. That’s good news for the economy, but it may heighten debate over how aggressively the Fed needs to cut rates,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. Market watchers will follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for any indications on how quickly rates may fall from here. Following recent data painting a picture of a slowing labor market, U.S. money markets have almost fully priced in follow-up rate cuts in October and December. Market participants will also closely parse the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer key guidance on how policymakers expect the interest-rate path to unfold over the next few years.
The equity options market is predicting about a 0.7% move after the Fed meeting, matching the second-lowest expected swing in the past 18 months, according to data from Susquehanna International Group.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 43% of respondents are leaning “risk-on” in reaction to the Fed meeting, 31% said “mixed/negligible,” and 26% said “risk-off.”
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect August Building Permits to be 1.370 million and Housing Starts to be 1.370 million, compared to the prior figures of 1.362 million and 1.428 million, respectively.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 1.400 million, compared to last week’s value of 3.939 million.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.014%, down -0.25%.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. 

The FED meets today, and we'll see Weds. What is the result? The questions are: #1. What size will the cut be? #2. What will that mean for the rest of the year and our next two decisions? #3. What will Powell say and how will he guide? It's certainly the big news item for this week's trading. We had a training session yesterday where we went over the data and what the past has taught us. Here's my projection for potential moves. This is obviously just one man's opinion (mine), but I do see some real potential for a "buy the rumor, sell the news" as a possible market reaction.

I was looking for a retrace yesterday and while we got close and the risk/reward was quite good never the less, it didn't hit. Here's a look at my day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. Those ATH's just keep getting higher.

Technicals are still firmly bullish, as you would imagine. 

Much like yesterday, I'm looking for more of a neutral day as traders prepare for FOMC tomorrow. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.23% this morning as investors brace for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, where it is widely expected to cut interest rates, while also awaiting U.S. retail sales data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. Seagate Technology (STX) climbed over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Bank of America raised its price target on the stock to $215 from $170. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) gained more than +4% after Citi raised its price target on the stock to $280 from $225. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) rose over +3% after CEO Elon Musk bought about $1 billion worth of the EV maker’s shares. On the bearish side, Corteva (CTVA) slumped more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after several analysts questioned the merits of a potential breakup of the agriculture company’s seed and pesticide businesses.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the Empire State manufacturing index fell to a 3-month low of -8.70 in September, weaker than expectations of 4.30.
The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. The central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25% on Wednesday. Investors will be watching Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for any indications on how quickly rates may fall from here. Following recent data painting a picture of a slowing labor market, U.S. money markets have almost fully priced in follow-up rate cuts in October and December. Market watchers will also closely parse the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer key guidance on how policymakers expect the interest-rate path to unfold over the next few years.
“Now the discussion will turn to how aggressively the Fed will act. The Fed may remind everyone that it may be focused on jobs now, but it hasn’t forgotten about the other half of its mandate,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
In other Fed news, a federal appeals court ruled on Monday that Fed Governor Lisa Cook can continue serving at the central bank while her legal case proceeds, upholding a lower court’s decision. Also, President Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Miran is set to join the Fed’s board after the Senate confirmed him to the post on Monday night.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that Retail Sales will show a +0.2% m/m increase in August following a +0.5% m/m climb in July.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which rose +0.3% m/m in July. Economists expect the August figure to climb +0.4% m/m.
U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released today. Economists expect Industrial Production to drop -0.1% m/m and Manufacturing Production to be unchanged m/m in August, compared to the July figures of -0.1% m/m and no change m/m, respectively.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes will be released today as well. Economists anticipate the export price index to drop -0.1% m/m and the import price index to fall -0.2% m/m in August, compared to the previous figures of +0.1% m/m and +0.4% m/m, respectively.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.040%, up +0.12%.

​The SPX continues to hold near record highs, but MACD breadth signals show mixed short-term momentum. The number of stocks generating MACD buy signals has pulled back from recent peaks, with the 10-day average trending lower, suggesting participation in the rally has thinned.
In the short term, this divergence could point to a need for consolidation if breadth doesn’t improve. Watching whether buy signals expand again or continue to contract will be key in gauging if the index can sustain upward momentum or faces a pause.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels I'm focused on today on /ES (still on Sept. exp) 6635, 6650, 6659, 6674 are resistance. 6624, 6600, 6585, 6576 are support. Note: The delta between the support vs. resistance levels is a lot larger. I'm not sure we get a retrace today but there certainly seems to be more potential for a big move downside vs. upside.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly!

Today we'll do a deep dive training of some FED data and market reaction over a big historical period. Will it be a 25bp or 50bp cut and how will the market react both short term and long term? Come join us for a live training session today. 

Our Friday was pretty quiet. Our SPX position rolled into today (Monday) and a few scalps on QQQ did not deliver. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the market coming into an FOMC week. Markets are mostly sitting right on those ATH's.

​The SPX continues to press higher, but the volatility framework shows some short-term shifts worth monitoring. One-month realized volatility has eased back toward the three-month measure, reflecting calmer trading after the spring spike.
However, the volatility ratio, while well off its peak, has started to curl upward from recent lows suggesting that near-term fluctuations could resurface. In the short term, the index’s ability to hold momentum while this ratio edges higher will be key, as a sustained pickup could challenge the current grind toward new highs.

Let's take a look at expected range for this week.  It's a little surprising with FOMC this week that I.V. is still low. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.19%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.08% this morning, pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street amid optimism ahead of a widely expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve later this week.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 underperformed as Nvidia (NVDA) fell over -2% in pre-market trading after China’s market regulator said in a preliminary probe that the chipmaker had violated the country’s anti-monopoly laws. Also, Texas Instruments (TXN) and Analog Devices (ADI) slid about -3% in pre-market trading after China over the weekend launched an anti-dumping investigation into some U.S.-made analog chips, including those produced by the two companies.
Investors also await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data this week, with a particular focus on the retail sales report.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended mixed. Arista Networks (ANET) slumped over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company’s long-term projections failed to impress investors. Also, shares of vaccine makers retreated after the Washington Post reported that U.S. health officials plan to link Covid shots to the deaths of 25 children, with Moderna (MRNA) and BioNTech SE (BNTX) sliding more than -7%. In addition, RH (RH) fell over -4% after the home furnishings retailer reported downbeat Q2 results and cut its full-year revenue growth guidance. On the bullish side, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) surged more than +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, extending Thursday’s gains after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount Skydance was preparing a majority cash bid for the entertainment giant.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell to a 4-month low of 55.4 in September, weaker than expectations of 58.2. Also, the University of Michigan’s U.S. September year-ahead inflation expectations were unchanged from August at 4.8%, in line with expectations, while 5-year implied inflation expectations unexpectedly increased to 3.9%, higher than expectations of 3.4%.
“The Fed is pulled in opposite directions by rising inflation on the one hand and a weak job market on the other. The Fed can be expected to cut rates further in the coming months; the question is how much, not if,” said Bill Adams at Comerica Bank.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference will take center stage this week. The central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. However, there’s also a small chance that a larger 50 basis point cut could occur. Investors will scrutinize remarks from Mr. Powell for any indications on how quickly rates may fall from here. Following recent data painting a picture of a slowing labor market, U.S. money markets have almost fully priced in follow-up rate cuts in October and December. Market watchers will also closely parse the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer key guidance on how policymakers expect the interest-rate path to unfold over the next few years.
“Despite inflation running above the Fed’s 2% target, [recent] weaker-than-expected nonfarm payroll figures, coupled with revised data showing 911,000 fewer jobs created in the 12 months to March, have strengthened the likelihood of monetary policy easing,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at Moneyfarm.
Investors will also keep an eye on U.S. economic data this week. The retail sales report for August will be the main highlight, as it will provide insight into the state of consumer spending. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, the Export Price Index, the Import Price Index, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index.
In addition, several notable companies, including shipping giant FedEx (FDX), homebuilder Lennar (LEN), and cereal maker General Mills (GIS), are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.
Meanwhile, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg will open the company’s annual Meta Connect conference on Wednesday evening, where the Facebook parent is expected to highlight product offerings such as its AI glasses.
On the trade front, U.S.-China talks on trade, the economy, and the status of ByteDance’s TikTok began on Sunday in Madrid. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the U.S. is nearing a deal with China regarding TikTok. The talks resumed on Monday.
Today, investors will focus on the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee the September figure coming in at 4.30, compared to 11.90 in August.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.064%, up +0.12%.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels we'll be focusing on today on /ES. 6605, 6614, 6624, 6630 are resistance zones. 660, 6594, 6585, 6577 are support zones. 

My lean or bias today: Futures are up as I type. The news docket is pretty light. Technicals are all bullish. All that being said, I think we could be flat today, waiting on Weds.results. 

I look forward to seeing you all in our live trading room today and don't forget to tune into zoom for our weekly training session.

Markets are holding at incremental new highs. We had two days of solid inflation numbers and it all seems like a lock that we'll get a rate cut. The question is, will it be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" situation? The market sure seems stretched to me. We'll see soon enough.
I had a bad day yesterday with both my 0DTE's missing. Our Thetafairy and scalping made money but not enough to offset. Here's a  look at my day. 

Let's look at the markets. That's a pretty solid up trend. New ATH's. Is there any resistance in sight? Not yet.

Technicals are bullish as you'd think they should be with a trend like we currently have. 

The fear and greed index is not overly optimistic here, which is a bit surprising. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.11%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.04% this morning, taking a breather as investors assess how much further the record rally fueled by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts can continue.
Higher bond yields today are also weighing on stock index futures.
Investors now await the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on U.S. consumer sentiment due later in the day.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed in the green, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) jumped over +28% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount Skydance was preparing a majority cash bid for the entertainment giant. Also, Centene (CNC) surged about +9% after the healthcare company reiterated its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Micron Technology (MU) climbed over +7% after Citi raised its price target on the stock to $175 from $150. On the bearish side, Netflix (NFLX) slid more than -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Chief Product Officer Eunice Kim announced her departure from the company.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Thursday showed that consumer prices rose +0.4% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, headline inflation picked up to +2.9% in August from +2.7% in July, in line with expectations. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in August, in line with expectations. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly rose by +27K to a 3-3/4-year high of 263K, compared with the 235K expected.
“[Thursday’s] CPI report has been trumped by the jobless claims report,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “If anything, the jump in jobless claims will inject a bit more urgency in the Fed’s decision-making, with Powell likely signaling a sequence of rate cuts is on the way.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 7.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
In tariff news, the Financial Times reported on Thursday that the U.S. will push G7 countries to impose higher tariffs on India and China over their purchases of Russian oil.
Today, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the preliminary September figure will stand at 58.2, the same as in August. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.044%, up +0.82%.

We've got a new training module for you coming up on our next Monday zoom session. Mark your calendar for that. 

I don't have a lean or bias today. The trend is bullish so I lean that direction but a pause or even a retrace today could make sense. Let's let the morning develop.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels I'll be watching today. 
6595, 6600, 6606, 6610 are resistance levels. 6583, 6575, 6569, 6552 are support zones. 

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's see f we can finish the week strong!

We had a good day yesterday but it was a slow burn and a "full work day". Sometimes our workdays are only an hour and sometimes we need the full 6.5 hrs. to make it happen. Have you ever noticed that the things in life that are hard are usually the things that are most important? Going to the gym is hard but the benefits are amazing. Sitting our our hands. Waiting for trades to materialize. Begging for the market to hit one of our levels so we can start hitting that enter button on our computers. These are all hard things, but we know that with discipline we usually get rewarded. We had a solid day yesterday but our last NDX trade came down to the last 30 min. of the day. Here's a look at our results. 

Today is a copy/paste from yesterday. We move on from PPI to CPI today. Just like yesterday, we'll forgo looking at levels and creating bias until we get into our zoom session and see how the market reacts. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.16%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.15% this morning as investors refrain from making any big bets ahead of key U.S. inflation data that is expected to shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path this year.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed, with the S&P 500 notching a new record high. Oracle (ORCL) jumped over +35% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the enterprise software giant gave an aggressive forecast for its cloud business. Also, stocks tied to AI computing infrastructure soared on Oracle’s upbeat outlook, with CoreWeave (CRWV) surging more than +16% and Broadcom (AVGO) climbing over +9% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, GameStop (GME) rose over +3% after the videogame retailer reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results. On the bearish side, Synopsys (SNPS) plummeted more than -35% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chip design software company reported downbeat FQ3 results and issued below-consensus FQ4 guidance.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand fell -0.1% m/m and rose +2.6% y/y in August, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, fell -0.1% m/m and rose +2.8% y/y in August, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
“The worst-case scenario on inflation isn’t playing out,” said David Russell at TradeStation. “The doves will be happy to see the year-over-year number back below 3%. Combined with the weak jobs data recently, this keeps us on track for rate cuts. However, the speed and intensity might depend more on the big consumer index.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8.0% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Market watchers will assess the extent to which hefty U.S. tariffs are passing through to consumers. Slower price growth could reinforce expectations for a series of rate cuts after a likely move next week, while hotter-than-expected inflation may lead investors to price in a more cautious pace of easing. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. August CPI will come in at +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in August, unchanged from July’s figures of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that investors anticipate an in-line inflation report, with most respondents saying that the core CPI is on a Fed-friendly glide path.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 235K, compared to last week’s number of 237K.
On the earnings front, Photoshop maker Adobe (ADBE) is set to report its FQ3 earnings results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.042%, up +0.35%.

We've got a modified Theta fairy working with an Iron fly going into CPI release. We'll be looking to pull it after the vol crush after CPI release.

​The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), measures the change in prices paid by consumers for a representative basket of goods and services.
Key components include:
Headline CPI: Includes all items—food, energy, and others.
Core CPI: Excludes volatile categories like food and energy, offering a clearer view of underlying inflation trends.
YoY – Forecast: 2.9% | Prior: 2.7% | Range: 3% / 2.7%
MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.2% | Range: 0.5% / 0.1%
Core YoY – Forecast: 3.1% | Prior: 3.1% | Range: 3.1% / 3%
Core MoM – Forecast: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3% | Range: 0.4% ./ 0.2%

Our levels were pretty spot on yesterday.  6560 and 6535 are the main resistance/support levels coming into CPI. We'll drill down on all the levels in our zoom session. 

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly!

We are entering a couple potential big days with PPI release this morning and CPI tomorrow. Inflation official numbers are running around 3.3% annually. Quite a bit higher than the FED's goal of 2% but that isn't stopping the CME futures from predicting a 100% probability of a rate cut next week. Markets should react today so we'll be prepared for movement.
Yesterday was another absolutely perfect, or near perfect day for us, execution wise. We really did everything right...again but, with such little movement over the last couple of days our profits are smaller than we'd like. I know I'm repetitive here but our challenge remains the same. Low I.V. make credit trades poor risk/reward and lack of directional movement makes debit trades ineffective. As I said, I'm sure that will change today and tomorrow. Here's a look at our "perfect" day yesterday.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.25%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.15% this morning as a blowout outlook from Oracle buoyed sentiment, while investors geared up for crucial U.S. producer inflation data.
Oracle (ORCL) surged over +29% in pre-market trading after the enterprise software giant projected that booked revenue from its core cloud business would surpass half a trillion dollars in the coming months, stunning Wall Street and boosting optimism that the AI infrastructure rollout is accelerating. Chip stocks also climbed in pre-market trading on Oracle’s upbeat outlook, with Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Broadcom (AVGO) up more than +2%.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher. UnitedHealth Group (UNH) surged over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after the insurer said it expects about 78% of its Medicare Advantage members to be enrolled in top-rated Medicare plans next year. Also, Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) climbed more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after announcing plans to end its data center product over the next three years and move customers to its cloud platform. In addition, Nebius (NBIS) jumped over +49% after securing a deal worth up to $19.4 billion to provide Microsoft with AI infrastructure through 2031. On the bearish side, Albemarle (ALB) slumped more than -11% following a report that China’s CATL would soon restart its Yichun lithium mine.
A preliminary report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday showed that employers added 911,000 fewer jobs in the year through March than previously indicated in the monthly payroll data. The final figures will be released early next year.
“The labor market appears weaker than originally reported,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial. “A deteriorating labor market will allow the Fed to highlight the need to ease rates. Investors should expect the Fed to officially start the rate-cutting campaign at the next meeting.”
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC in an interview on Tuesday that the record revision to U.S. payrolls data underscores that the U.S. economy is contending with a slowdown. “The economy is weakening,” Dimon said. “Whether that is on the way to recession or just weakening, I don’t know.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.2% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting next week.
Meanwhile, a federal judge on Tuesday night blocked U.S. President Donald Trump from removing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors while a lawsuit challenging her dismissal proceeds.
In tariff news, the U.S. Supreme Court agreed on Tuesday to review the legality of President Trump’s sweeping global tariffs. The court placed the case on a fast track, setting oral arguments for the first week of November.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. August PPI will stand at +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect August figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y, compared to July’s numbers of +0.9% m/m and +3.7% y/y.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today. Economists anticipate that the final July figure will be unrevised at +0.2% m/m.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -1.900M, compared to last week’s value of 2.415M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.082%, up +0.25%.

No bias or levels today or tomorrow with PPI and CPI. They should be the drivers and we'll look at the levels as they develop intra-day inside our trading room.

​I look forward to seeing you all shortly!

We get the job revision numbers today. It's generally assumed it will be revised down. the question is how much?
I think it's big and that should solidify a rate cut come next week.

We had a perfect day yesterday. Our entries and exits were about as well timed as can possibly be but the moves were small all day and it just wasn't enough to get our daily profit goal of $1,000+ dollars. Still, it was a solid day with everything we touched working well. See our results below:

Let's take a look at the market. Bullish sentiment is holding.

We continue to just hang out around the ATH's. With CPI and PPI incoming we should finally get some movement.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.17% this morning, buoyed by hopes for multiple interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, while investors await an annual review of U.S. jobs data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Applovin (APP) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the stock would be added to the S&P 500 index on September 22nd. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising more than +4% and Broadcom (AVGO) gaining over +3%. In addition, EchoStar (SATS) jumped more than +19% after SpaceX agreed to acquire wireless spectrum from the company for about $17 billion. On the bearish side, Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) plummeted over -25% after the company released new data that raised concerns about the future of its closely-watched lung cancer drug, ivonescimab.
 Monday showed that U.S. consumer credit rose by $16.01 billion in July, stronger than expectations of $10.40 billion.
“While the Sept. 5 report showed job growth had slowed, it doesn’t appear to be signaling a recession,” according to Invesco Global Market Strategy Office. “Slower growth, anchored inflation expectations, falling yields, and anticipated rate cuts point to an optimistic outlook for stocks.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 11.8% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Today, investors will closely monitor the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of its preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls for the year through March. The figure is expected to show another downward revision to March payrolls, suggesting the labor market was weakening well before the recent spell of sluggish job growth. Wells Fargo, Comerica Bank, and Pantheon Macroeconomics economists expect the revision to show that the March payroll count was nearly 800,000 lower than currently estimated, or about 67,000 fewer per month on average. Nomura Securities, Bank of America, and Royal Bank of Canada estimate that the downgrade could be closer to one million.
“A big downward revision to job growth through March 2025 would have less implications for monetary policy than a downward revision to job growth in the most recent months, but it does set the stage for the broader context of how the economy has been doing. And all things equal, downward revisions to job growth increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy,” said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica. 
Market participants will also focus on earnings reports from several notable companies, with Oracle (ORCL), Synopsys (SNPS), Rubrik (RBRK), AeroVironment (AVAV), and GameStop Corp. (GME) set to release their quarterly figures today.
Meanwhile, Apple (AAPL) hosts its biggest product launch event of the year today. The tech giant is expected to unveil four new iPhones at the gathering, including a new iPhone 17 Air. The Air will likely be slimmer and lighter than the base iPhone models.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.065%, up +0.49%.

​Hedge funds are shorting the S&P 500 futures at nearly a RECORD pace: Hedge funds short exposure to the S&P 500 futures hit $180 BILLION, an all-time high. As a share of open interest, shorts hit ~27%, the highest in 2.5 years, only below March 2023 and September 2022.

Let's take a look at our key intra-day levels on /ES for our 0DTE today. 6517, 6525, 6538, 6550, are all the resistance zones. 6509, 6499, 6496, 6480 are support zones.

My lean or bias yesterday was begrudgingly bullish. It's the same today. Job revisions should boost futures and they are green right now as I type.

We had a good training yesterday on inverting charts to change our view and understanding of price action. We'll have another training session next Monday. Mark it on your calendar.
​I'll see you all shortly in the live trading room!

Welcome to a new trading week! We've got another exciting training module for you today based on the great Charlie Munger. We have a trading mantra "Hope for the best, expect the worst". It's based on Charlie Mungers call to "Invert, always invert". We'll apply this today to some of the top favored stocks in todays market.

We had a good day Friday with our 0DTE's and scalping. I finally cut bait on our LULU trade after a disappointing reaction to earnings. We continue to cash flow it in our ATM portfolio. Here's a look at our day trades. 

Let's check on market statistics. Bullish sentiment looks strong here. 

ATH's were not able to hold on Friday. We continue to look a little "toppy" here. 

​The S&P 500 SMA breadth chart highlights how broad participation is shaping the current rally. The top panel shows the index steadily climbing toward fresh highs, while the breadth measures below track how many individual stocks are trading above their short-, medium-, and longer-term moving averages (SMA 5, 20, and 50).
In the short term, the SMA 5 breadth looks choppy, showing frequent reversals a sign of near-term noise and rapid rotations. The SMA 20 and 50 breadths are holding in the mid-range, suggesting that while not all stocks are trending strongly, participation remains relatively healthy compared to previous dips.
For traders watching breadth as a confirmation tool, the takeaway is that short-term fluctuations are active, but the medium-term trend still shows enough support to sustain market momentum, provided breadth doesn’t roll over sharply in the coming days.

Let's take a look at the I.V. for the week and expected moves. I.V. is still in the dumps. It continues to make debit trades more attractive.

​The SPY hit another new all-time high last week, closing modestly higher at $647.24 (+0.32%). Price remains above the upper channel of the Chande Breakout Buddy, signaling that bullish momentum is still in play. However, the Multi-Length Alignment Oscillator is trending lower, suggesting signs of internal weakness as the rally grinds higher with diminishing strength.

​QQQ climbed to $576.06 (+0.99%) last week, as Broadcom’s blowout earnings gave the Nasdaq-100 a lift. Still, the index failed to reclaim green bullish candles on the Chande Breakout Buddy, and a new short-term red column emerged on the Multi-Length Alignment Oscillator. Among the major indexes, big tech is showing the most pronounced loss of momentum.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.26%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.34% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as investors boosted their expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year.
This week, investor focus is squarely on the release of key U.S. inflation data.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed in the red. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) tumbled over -18% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the athleisure company cut its full-year guidance for the second time in a row. Also, Kenvue (KVUE) slumped more than -9% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Department of Health and Human Services plans to release a report linking autism to pregnant women’s use of the company’s Tylenol painkiller. In addition, Copart (CPRT) fell over -2% after reporting weaker-than-expected FQ4 revenue. On the bullish side, Broadcom (AVGO) surged over +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor and software company posted upbeat FQ3 results and issued above-consensus FQ4 revenue guidance. Bloomberg also reported that the chipmaker partnered with OpenAI to make AI accelerators.
The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 22K in August, weaker than expectations of 75K. Also, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to a 3-3/4-year high of 4.3% in August, in line with expectations. In addition, U.S. August average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, in line with expectations.
“Bad news for employment is good news for investors wanting lower rates. A September cut is a near certainty, and October is increasingly in play,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that he remains undecided about what stance to take at the September meeting, pointing to upcoming inflation data. “I want to get more information. I’m still undecided as we’re going into this,” Goolsbee told Bloomberg Television. “We’ve got to look at the inflation side too.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 9.9% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Friday that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh are the finalists to replace Jerome Powell as the central bank’s chair. “You could say those are the top three,” Trump told reporters.
The U.S. consumer inflation report for August will be the main highlight this week. Slower price growth could reinforce expectations for a series of rate cuts after a likely move in September, while hotter-than-expected inflation may lead investors to price in a more cautious pace of easing. Market watchers will assess the extent to which hefty U.S. tariffs are passing through to consumers. HSBC economists said, “As reciprocal tariffs finally took effect in early August, markets will be keen to see if the August data reflect any uptick in prices from higher tariffs.” Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. PPI, the Core PPI, Wholesale Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary).
Market participants will also closely monitor the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ release of its preliminary benchmark revision to payrolls for the year through March. The figure is expected to show another downward revision to March payrolls, suggesting the labor market was weakening well before the recent spell of sluggish job growth. Fed Governor Christopher Waller recently projected that monthly job creation will be reduced by an average of about 60,000.
In addition, several notable companies like Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Synopsys (SNPS), Kroger (KR), and Chewy (CHWY) are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.
U.S. central bankers are in a media blackout period before the September 16-17 policy meeting, so they are prohibited from making public comments this week.
Apple (AAPL) is expected to unveil the new iPhone 17 at its Tuesday event, with other models likely to be introduced, including a slimmer “Air” version and other “Pro” models. Also, several major tech companies are set to deliver presentations at the annual Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, with Nvidia (NVDA) scheduled for Monday, Meta (META) and Broadcom (AVGO) for Tuesday, and Microsoft (MSFT) for Wednesday.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Consumer Credit data. Economists expect this figure to be $10.40 billion in July, compared to the previous figure of $7.37 billion.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.084%, up +0.05%.

My lean or bias today is a very non committal buillishness. We seem to have support here. Futures are up, as I type so I'll start my day with a bullish lean.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. I'm looking forward to our training today!