The last two trading days have had a strong finish to the end of the trading sessions. Are the bulls back? Most of the indices are back to ATH levels. The Nasdaq being the slight laggard. It certainly looks like the bulls are back. NFP is out this morning and should be our main driver for the day. I had a bad day yesterday. We try to keep our risk to $500 dollars on each SPX setup and I went through four setups in the day, hitting the stop loss on all of them. Looking for a retrace that never came. I'm going to extend my wait time in the morning before jumping in. Let's see if we can get a trend to establish before getting in. Our LULU trade looks doomed as well. I was truly hopeful that earnings would show a turn around. The results were in line with expectations but the market doesn't like what it's seeing. Time to cut that trade and wait for a better entry. Here's a look at my day yesterday. 

Let's take a look at the markets. Those ATH's look like they are going to become new ATH's.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.18% this morning as optimism grows that the U.S. payrolls report will pave the way for the Federal Reserve to resume cutting interest rates later this month.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed in the green. T. Rowe Price Group (TROW) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Goldman Sachs announced plans to invest up to $1 billion in the company and partner with the asset manager to sell private-market products to retail investors. Also, most chip stocks gained ground, with Micron Technology (MU) rising more than +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and KLA Corp. (KLAC) advancing over +3%. In addition, Amazon.com (AMZN) rose over +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after announcing several positive business updates, including a new partnership for its Project Kuiper and favorable news regarding its investment in AI startup Anthropic. On the bearish side, Salesforce (CRM) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the cloud software company provided disappointing Q3 guidance.
The ADP National Employment report released on Thursday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 54K in August, weaker than expectations of 73K. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +8K to a 10-week high of 237K, compared with the 230K expected. At the same time, U.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity was revised upward to +3.3% q/q, stronger than expectations of +2.8% q/q, while unit labor costs were revised lower to +1.0% q/q, weaker than expectations of +1.2% q/q. In addition, the U.S. ISM services index rose to 52.0 in August, stronger than expectations of 50.9.
“The Federal Reserve’s free pass on the labor market has ended. You can expect the Fed to tilt its balance of risks to cut rates in September,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group. 
New York Fed President John Williams stated on Thursday that his forecast is that it will “become appropriate” to lower interest rates “over time,” while refraining from specifying the timing or pace of the reductions. Also, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is uncertain whether a rate cut will be appropriate at the Fed’s upcoming meeting, citing ongoing uncertainty over how much tariffs might accelerate inflation and how much they might be weighing on the labor market. “It’s a live meeting for me, but I haven’t, I haven’t made-up my mind on that,” Goolsbee said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s monetary policy meeting.
In tariff news, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he would impose tariffs on semiconductor imports “very shortly” but exempt goods from companies like Apple that have pledged to increase their U.S. investments.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report will serve as a key consideration for Fed officials ahead of their September policy meeting. Economists, on average, forecast that August Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 75K, compared to the July figure of 73K.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that investor attention has shifted sharply to payrolls after last month’s weak figure and large revisions. According to the tally, 36% of respondents expect a “risk-off” market reaction to the key jobs report, 35% anticipate a “mixed/negligible” response, and 29% expect “risk-on.”
“The most relevant question for the August payrolls report is: did June see the bottoming for job creation or is there still further downside yet to be realized?” said Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. “In the event that Friday’s data shows an improvement from the recent lull in hiring, then the Fed would have grounds for a patient approach to rate cuts over the balance of the year. Conversely, if NFP disappoints, the Fed could choose to express its dovishness by dropping the year-end dot in the SEP, signaling that it expects to cut in October and December,” he said. 
Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect August figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today as well. Economists forecast that the August figure will creep up a tick to 4.3%, the highest level since 2021, from 4.2% in the prior month.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.158%, down -0.43%.

Bullish technical bias is getting stronger. 

Let's finish the week with some green! Focus on SPX today. See you all in the live trading room shortly!

We had a good training session yesterday on the H.E.A.T. approach and we'll follow it up today with a review of the ratio trades. We had an O.K. day yesterday. I should have held off on scalping as it was just a chop fest. Our SPX was just O.K. most of the day. I think we had 6 total entries throughout the day and four were losers but the last setup really paid off. Here's a look at the day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. We continue to be stalled out here. We need a catalyst to either get us to new ATH's or really get a bearish move entrenched.

Technicals are bullish.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.19%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.33% this morning as Treasury yields extended their decline after the latest jobs report made it all but certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.
Investors now await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, comments from Fed officials, and an earnings report from semiconductor and software giant Broadcom.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped over +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after a judge ruled in an antitrust case that Google won’t be forced to sell its Chrome browser. Also, Apple (AAPL) rose more than +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after a court ruling allowed Alphabet to maintain an agreement under which Google pays Apple more than $20 billion annually to remain the default search engine on the Safari browser. In addition, The Campbell’s Company (CPB) climbed over +7% after the packaged food maker posted better-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS. On the bearish side, Dollar Tree (DLTR) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the discount retailer issued disappointing Q3 guidance.
A Labor Department report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to a 10-month low of 7.181 million in July, weaker than expectations of 7.380 million. Also, U.S. factory orders fell -1.3% m/m in July, in line with expectations.
“[The JOLTs report] does confirm the slowing pace of hirings being seen in a variety of stats in the aggregate, but something we’re well aware of — and why the Fed is cutting rates by 25 basis points in two weeks,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday that the central bank should start cutting interest rates this month and proceed with multiple reductions in the months ahead, noting that officials may debate the exact pace of easing. Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, “Inflation is still too high, but at the same time, the labor market is showing some signs of cooling, so it’s, we’re getting into a tricky position now for the Fed.” At the same time, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said, “The current modestly restrictive setting of the policy rate is consistent with today’s full-employment labor market and core inflation nearly one percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target.” In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated that he views one rate cut as appropriate for this year, though he noted that could change depending on the trajectory of inflation and the labor market.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 2.4% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
Meanwhile, the Fed said Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that U.S. economic activity showed “little or no change” in recent weeks. “Across districts, contacts reported flat to declining consumer spending because, for many households, wages were failing to keep up with rising prices,” according to the Beige Book. The report also said that every region reported price increases, with 10 of the 12 citing “moderate or modest” inflation and two noting “strong input price growth.” “Nearly all districts noted tariff-related price increases, with contacts from many districts reporting that tariffs were especially impactful on the prices of inputs,” according to the report.
Today, investors will monitor earnings reports from several high-profile companies, with Broadcom (AVGO), Copart (CPRT), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), and Samsara (IOT) set to release their quarterly results.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the August ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 73K, compared to the July figure of 104K.
The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the August ISM services index to be 50.9 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 55.3, compared to the previous values of 50.1 and 55.7, respectively.
U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity data will be released today. Economists forecast final Q2 Unit Labor Costs to rise +1.2% q/q and Nonfarm Productivity to rise +2.8% q/q, compared to the first-quarter numbers of +6.9% q/q and -1.8% q/q, respectively.
U.S. Trade Balance data will come in today. Economists anticipate the trade deficit will widen to -$77.70 billion in July from -$60.20 billion in June.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 230K, compared to last week’s number of 229K.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.193%, down -0.43%.

​The Conference Board LEI index has dropped in 38 of the last 41 months to its lowest in 11 years. In July, the LEI flashed a recession signal. Versus the Coincident Economic Index (CEI), it’s now at the weakest since 2008

How does this end well?

​Market breadth slipped notably on September 2, 2025, with just 27.3% of stocks advancing against 70.6% declining.
This marks a sharp deterioration from Friday’s more balanced session (39.2% advancers), and resembles the weak structure seen on August 25. The number of new highs fell to 2.8%, while new lows stayed modest at 1.1%, suggesting limited leadership at the top.
Short-term momentum clearly faltered: only 56% of stocks remain above their 20-day SMA, down sharply from nearly 75% just a week ago.
While the 50-, 100-, and 200-day readings (63.9%, 71.2%, and 59.3% respectively) still show longer-term support, the steady erosion at the shorter time frames hints at increasing fragility.
Forward-looking indicators turned less favorable as well. The weekly advance/decline balance slipped to 40.7% vs. 57.7% decliners, a noticeable reversal compared to last week’s strong weekly breadth.
Monthly and 3-month measures still lean constructive, but they are gradually softening, particularly on the monthly side where advancing breadth fell back to 65% from over 75% at the end of August.
Compared with the previous breadth update, the data confirm that Friday’s bounce was only temporary. Weakness has reasserted itself, especially at the short-term level, with fewer stocks managing to hold above their faster-moving averages.
The underlying trend is therefore tilting back toward the negative side.
Current breadth trend rating: 2 (negative).

On the topic of LULU. If nothing else, we are in the company of the great Michael  Burry who has a large call option position on LULU ahead of earnings. This is a quality company compared to it's peers.

​The SPX option score chart as of September 3, 2025, shows that the index continues to hold near the upper end of its recent range, with spot prices consolidating around the 6,350–6,450 zone.
The option score, however, highlights a volatile short-term sentiment, swinging between stronger readings and sudden dips, suggesting traders are actively repositioning.
In the immediate term, the score’s recovery off recent lows points to stabilizing sentiment, but the repeated fluctuations hint at caution. Near-term momentum will likely depend on whether the index can maintain strength above the recent high range or if pressure from option flows sparks another short-lived pullback.

My bias or lean yesterday was looking for a retrace, which we got but we did power into the close to erase most of the damage. Futures are up this morning but once again, I think we get a muted day. I'm more neutral today.

I look forward to trading with you all and reviewing the ratio trades training today!

 Google squeaked out a nice antitrust victory late yesterday that could have been costly, if lost. That pushed both GOOG and AAPL ( a secondary benefactor) up and with it, the futures markets. Is it enough to stop the bearish momentum that was building? We'll see. Today could be telling. If we give up the futures gains then I think it's right back to more bearish action.

We had a mixed day yesterday. We are still waiting on Gold to level out. It keeps hitting new ATH's. With the dollar continuing to fall it may be a while. My NDX was profitable and I just didn't pull it fast enough. That was operator error on my part. I scalped with the QQQ's yesterday and that may be a good approach again today. Our ATM portfolio hit another ATH.  Here's a look at my day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. Even though the trend was bearish yesterday, the market fought back going into the close. 

We're sitting on a neutral rating to start the morning. That means we can get anything. Futures are still up near their highs of the morning. 

September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are trending up +0.69% this morning, buoyed by a jump in Alphabet stock following a ruling that Google won’t be forced to sell its Chrome browser, while investors await the latest reading on U.S. job openings.
Alphabet (GOOGL) jumped over +5% in pre-market trading after Google escaped major antitrust penalties for its conduct in the U.S. internet search market. A U.S. district judge permitted the tech giant to retain its Chrome browser and maintain an agreement under which Google pays Apple more than $20 billion annually to remain the default search engine on the Safari browser. Apple (AAPL) also benefited from the ruling, with the stock up over +2% in pre-market trading.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks fell, with Nvidia (NVDA) sliding nearly -2% and Amazon.com (AMZN) dropping more than -1%. Also, chip stocks lost ground, weighed down by a more than -3% decline in Lam Research (LRCX) after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $92. In addition, Kraft Heinz (KHC) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the packaged-food company announced plans to split into two separate companies. On the bullish side, Ulta Beauty (ULTA) rose more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Barclays raised its price target on the stock to $617 from $589.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to 48.7 in August, weaker than expectations of 49.0. Also, the U.S. August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was unexpectedly revised lower to 53.0, weaker than expectations of no change at 53.3. In addition, U.S. construction spending fell -0.1% m/m in July, in line with expectations.
“The ISM manufacturing report indicated that companies are largely managing headcount rather than actively hiring. This may be a clue ahead of Friday’s jobs numbers. New jobs are likely slowing, but meaningful revisions to data over the prior months could mean that the report, good or bad, may not influence investors much,” said Scott Helfstein at Global X.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that his administration would seek an expedited Supreme Court ruling in an effort to overturn a federal court decision that found many of his tariffs were illegally imposed.
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.380 million, compared to the June figure of 7.437 million.
U.S. Factory Orders data will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to drop -1.3% m/m in July following a -4.8% m/m slump in June.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
Later today, the Fed will release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts, which provides an update on economic conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Salesforce (CRM), Figma (FIG), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), and Dollar Tree (DLTR) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8.3% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.291%, up +0.33%.

My lean or bias today is still a bit bearish. Futures are up solidly on the strength of GOOG and AAPL and that may be enough to push us higher but the short term trend is bearish and I think there's a good chance we give up some of these gains.

Welcome back to a holiday shortened trading week. NFP on Friday is the main focus this week and LULU earnings on Thursday are in focus for us. We had a good day Friday with the exception of our gold trade. Gold continues to push to new ATH's. We'll keep chasing it. Our ATM portfolio continues to perform well and sits at new ATH's. Here's a look at it's performance YTD. At the start of this year I expressed the opinion that, after two strong years the market would have a muted return potential and that we had a great shot at outperforming it, once again. I'm not sure if we'll get to our 30+% ROI goal but we are making good progress.

Here's a look at our Friday results.

I'm also excited about tomorrow's zoom session and training segment on H.E.A.T.. I know it will be helpful to our members in building portfolios and trade setups. 

Let's take a look at the markets. Is the rollover finally here?

Technicals have turned negative.

September is not a great month for the market. 

​The S&P 500's Dividend Yield has moved down to 1.19%, the lowest level since 2000.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.75%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.95% this morning as Treasury yields climbed after cash trading resumed following the Labor Day holiday.
This week, investors look ahead to remarks from Federal Reserve officials, earnings reports from several high-profile companies, as well as a slew of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the red. Marvell Technology (MRVL) tumbled over -18% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the chip designer provided tepid Q3 revenue guidance. Also, Dell Technologies (DELL) slid more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting a slowdown in AI server orders in Q2 and a weaker-than-expected operating margin in its infrastructure unit. In addition, Caterpillar (CAT) fell over -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after warning that it expects a larger-than-anticipated net tariff impact of up to $1.8 billion this year. On the bullish side, Autodesk (ADSK) climbed over +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and issued above-consensus Q3 guidance.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Friday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, rose +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y in July, in line with expectations. Also, U.S. July personal spending climbed +0.5% m/m, in line with expectations, and personal income rose +0.4% m/m, in line with expectations. In addition, the U.S. Chicago PMI fell to 41.5 in August, weaker than expectations of 46.6. Finally, the University of Michigan’s U.S. August consumer sentiment index was unexpectedly revised lower to 58.2, weaker than expectations of no change at 58.6.
“The good news is, in-line expectations likely keep the status quo intact, which leaves a Fed rate cut in play for September. The bad news is, inflation is continuing to inch higher, which isn’t really the environment the Fed likely wants to cut in,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly indicated on Friday that officials are likely to be ready to cut interest rates soon, noting that inflation pressures from tariffs will probably be temporary. “It will soon be time to recalibrate policy to better match our economy,” Daly wrote in a brief social media post.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8.2% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.
Following Friday’s selloff in tech stocks on Wall Street, the record-breaking stock rally now faces a critical test this month, with jobs data, inflation numbers, and the Fed’s rate decision all scheduled in the coming weeks. Tariff tensions and uncertainty over the Fed’s independence are further adding to risks in September, which has historically been the weakest month of the year for U.S. markets.
In this holiday-shortened week, the U.S. August Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the main highlight. The report will serve as a key consideration for Fed officials ahead of their September policy meeting, with many analysts anticipating that August payrolls will confirm a slowdown in U.S. job creation. Ahead of the key jobs report, additional insights into the health of the U.S. labor market will come from the JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and Initial Jobless Claims. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. Trade Balance, Factory Orders, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, the S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate.
Investors will hear perspectives from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee throughout the week. The Fed will also release its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts this week, which provides an update on economic conditions in each of the 12 Fed districts. The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee.
In addition, several high-profile companies, including Broadcom (AVGO), Salesforce (CRM), Zscaler (ZS), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), Dollar Tree (DLTR), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU), are scheduled to report their quarterly results this week.
Meanwhile, market participants will also be watching the U.S. administration’s next steps after a federal appeals court ruled on Friday that most of President Trump’s global tariffs were illegal, stating he exceeded his authority by enacting them through an emergency law. However, the judges allowed the tariffs to remain in effect while the case proceeds.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the August ISM manufacturing index to be 49.0 and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI to be 53.3, compared to the previous values of 48.0 and 49.8, respectively.
U.S. Construction Spending data will also be released today. Economists forecast the July figure at -0.1% m/m, compared to -0.4% m/m in June.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.283%, up +0.87%.

Let's look at the new intra-day levels today for /ES. 6420, 6424, 6438, are the closest resistance zones. 6400 is a big support with 6385, 6375 up next. Below 6375 we could get some nice downside action! We can always hope!

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!

I'm very interested to see the PCE numbers today. We've got more and more FED members leaning towards a Sept. rate cut. PCE is a much better inflation indicator over CPI. It could be a market catalyst today. Futures are dersking as I type. with the long weekend most traders are looking to pull back some risk.

We had a good day yesterday. We got stuck in a QQQ that we couldn't exit the day before and that cost us but overall it was a pretty clean day of profits. 

Let's take a look at the markets. I didn't think we'd get such bullish price action but the market wants what it wants and it wanted to go higher yesterday. New ATH's incoming again?

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.27%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.47% this morning as investors trimmed risk ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge, which could offer more insight into the interest-rate outlook.
Some negative corporate news is weighing on stock index futures, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) tumbling over -14% in pre-market trading after the chip designer posted in-line Q2 results and provided tepid Q3 revenue guidance. Also, Dell Technologies (DELL) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after reporting a slowdown in AI server orders in Q2 and a weaker-than-expected operating margin in its infrastructure unit.
Higher bond yields today are also weighing on stock index futures.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed higher, with the S&P 500 notching a new all-time high. Snowflake (SNOW) jumped over +20% after the provider of cloud-based data-warehouse software posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year product revenue guidance. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Micron Technology (MU) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising more than +3%. In addition, Pure Storage (PSTG) soared over +32% after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and boosted its annual guidance. On the bearish side, Hormel Foods (HRL) plunged more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ3 adjusted EPS and gave disappointing FQ4 guidance.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday that Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to +3.3% (q/q annualized) from the initial estimate of +3.0%, stronger than expectations of +3.1%. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -5K to 229K, compared with the 231K expected. In addition, U.S. pending home sales fell -0.4% m/m in July, in line with expectations.
“Slowing job growth indicates the economy will not keep up with the above-trend growth from the previous quarter. Economic growth will likely flatline in the third quarter. Softer growth in the third quarter will add fuel to those calling for rate cuts,” said Jeff Roach at LPL Financial.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his call for lower interest rates on Thursday, saying he would back a quarter-point cut in September and expects further reductions over the next three to six months. “With underlying inflation close to 2%, market-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations firmly anchored, and the chances of an undesirable weakening in the labor market increased, proper risk management means the FOMC should be cutting the policy rate now,” Waller said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 85.2% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 14.8% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting next month.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y in July, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
“In-line or lower results will likely cement investors’ confidence in a September rate cut. While a higher-than-expected print may not take a rate cut off the table next month, it could sour Wall Street’s mood as inflation concerns grow,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate July Personal Spending to rise +0.5% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.4% m/m, compared to the June figures of +0.3% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today. Economists expect the final August figure to be revised slightly higher to 58.7 from the preliminary reading of 58.6.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will come in today. Economists forecast the August figure at 46.6, compared to the previous value of 47.1.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect the preliminary July figure to rise +0.1% m/m, the same as in June.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.221%, up +0.33%.

​Out of the top 200 insider trades over the last week (by value). 0/200 were buy orders. I have never seen anything like this in my life.

Let's finish off the week strong! See you all in the live trading room!

Let me start off with a little pump of our A.T.M.  (Asymmetric Trade Management) asset allocation portfolio. We hit a new ATH yesterday on that portfolio and it continues to produce for us. Five years in we have tripled our investment and met our dual fold mandate of besting the SP500 and doing it with less risk/volatility. It's a somewhat passive approach that takes 5 min each morning to adjust and then you're done for the day. If you are either not out performing the SP500 and or you want a portfolio with downside hedges to protect you I'd encourage you to check it out. Click the link below.  You can try it for free. I'll schedule a zoom call with you to answer any questions. The results speak for themselves. 

I'm excited for next weeks training module on H.E.A,T. approach to building your portfolio to beat the market.
It should be a good one with about two hours of information. Make sure to mark your calendar for next Weds. zoom session.

We had a good day yesterday net liq wise with our LULU position continuing to perform as it nears its earnings report but our SPX 0DTE didn't hit. It was still a good setup with $400 risk for $1,325 max profit potential but it didn't hit. Here's a look at our days results. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
Small caps continue to rock higher with the other major indices hitting a wall or resistance.

Looking at the VTI it paints the same picture. Bullish bias with some strong overhead resistance.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.03%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.06% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as investors digest Nvidia’s underwhelming earnings report.
Nvidia (NVDA) fell nearly -2% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker reported slightly weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue from the important data center segment and gave Q3 revenue guidance that, while still strong in absolute terms, fell short of lofty expectations. Adding to investors’ disappointment, the company said its sales forecast does not factor in shipments of its H20 chip to China.
Investor focus now turns to fresh U.S. economic data, including the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and jobless claims figures, earnings reports from several major companies, as well as remarks from a Federal Reserve official.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green. MongoDB (MDB) soared over +37% after the database software company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. Also, Kohl’s (KSS) surged +24% after the retailer reported better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and lifted its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, nCino (NCNO) climbed over +13% after the company posted stronger-than-expected Q2 results and boosted its annual guidance. On the bearish side, Paramount Skydance (PSKY) slumped more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Morgan Stanley lowered its price target on the stock to $10 from $12.
New York Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday that the September FOMC meeting would be a “live” one. Williams said the current level of rates is “modestly restrictive,” meaning the Fed could “reduce interest rates and still be somewhat restrictive going forward, but again, we’re going to have to figure out exactly what’s happening in the economy.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12.8% chance of no rate change at September’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Commerce Department’s second estimate of gross domestic product. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annual rate of 3.1% in the second quarter, slightly above the initial estimate of 3.0%.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 231K, compared to last week’s number of 235K.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will be released today as well. Economists forecast the July figure at -0.4% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -0.8% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Dell Technologies (DELL), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Autodesk (ADSK), Affirm Holdings (AFRM), and Dollar General (DG) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.226%, down -0.26%.

My lean or bias today is undecided. Futures got taken out to the wood shed last evening after the NVDA report and they have not only recovered from that swoon but are back in the green now as  I type. Everything leans bullish with heavy overhead resistance. That makes it tough so I'll watch the ORB again and base off that.

Today should have potential in both our scalping and 0DTE effort.  I look forward to trading with you in the live trading room shortly!

I've never been one of those individuals that walks into a room and thinks, "hey I'm probably the smartest person here!" I've found that actually is good for trading. Super smart people get lots of "paralysis by analysis". It's not about being smart if you can utilize good setups. What a good setup? Something with low risk. great risk/reward ratio. Something that is scalable and adjustable. 
All three of our trades yesterday met that criteria. Let's start with our scalping. We scalp using the /MNQ futures. I try to keep my stop loss to about $50 each scalp. Four losing scalps in I was down $250 dollars. Scalping is all directional so you're only losing if  you're wrong. I was wrong most of the day but we were able to scale and DCA and that made the difference.
​We made money when we were wrong because our approach overcame it.  Next was our Gold 0DTE. I wasn't happy with our strikes but we got twice the premium we usually get. That allowed us get out early at a great profit when gold started to go crazy. Our last setup was our SPX 0DTE. We didn't have any movement at the open and that also meant we didn't have a directional bias. Most traders just wait or walk away but our setup once again came to the rescue.

There's always a setup for every day and every market. Sometimes they are not initially apparent and it's easy to get in a rut with your "favorite" setup but setups trump everything. Get it right and you have a good chance of making money. Here's a look at my day yesterday.

Let's take a look at the markets. Bullish bias is holding.

Bulls are trying to get some new ATH's.

September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are trending up +0.02% this morning, with investors in wait-and-see mode ahead of a highly anticipated earnings report from AI darling Nvidia.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher. Eli Lilly (LLY) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the drugmaker announced positive results from a late-stage trial of its experimental weight-loss pill. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) and Qualcomm (QCOM) rising more than +1%. In addition, Boeing (BA) rose more than +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the planemaker announced that Korean Air ordered 103 planes. On the bearish side, Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) slid over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after HSBC downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 97.4 in August, stronger than expectations of 96.4. Also, U.S. July durable goods orders fell -2.8% m/m, better than expectations of -3.8% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, unexpectedly climbed +1.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, the U.S. June S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +2.1% y/y from +2.8% y/y in May, in line with expectations. Finally, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to a 5-month high of -7 in August, stronger than expectations of -11.
“Consumers don’t appear afraid, but perhaps restrained. Corporate conference calls reveal what appears to be a resilient consumer, while retail sales echo similar reassurances,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday that he expects only a modest adjustment in interest rates, given his outlook for little variation in economic activity over the rest of the year.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12.7% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.
On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a hefty 50% tariff on certain Indian goods, the highest in Asia, to punish the country for purchasing Russian oil. The new tariffs, which double the existing 25% duty, took effect at 12:01 a.m. in Washington on Wednesday and will hit more than 55% of goods shipped to the U.S.
Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s second-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close. The chipmaker’s earnings reports have been market-moving since May 2023, when it delivered the revenue growth forecast that reverberated globally. Analysts expect another record in sales, driven by the continued robust demand for the company’s GPU chips used in generative AI applications. Investors will be listening closely to what CEO Jensen Huang says about demand in the current AI market after AI stocks were hit last week amid fears of a bubble.
“Today’s focus would be on Nvidia earnings, which is likely to set the tone for risky assets over the coming days,” said Mohit Kumar, chief European strategist at Jefferies International.
Prominent companies like Snowflake (SNOW), Veeva Systems (VEEV), Agilent Technologies (A), and HP Inc. (HPQ) are also set to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data, which is set to be released later in the day. Economists expect this figure to be -2.000M, compared to last week’s value of -6.014M.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.257%, up +0.05%.

Something to think about today as NVDA reports. ​$1 trillion of AI Capex spend. $20 billion of revenue. AI is a bubble.

My lean or bias today is bearish. I don't think we get above the 6500 level today.

I was working on the entry to our Gold trade last night when the futures went crazy on the indices and gold. The news had hit the wire that Trump was firing Cook from her FED post. We've learned with Trumps beef with Powell that a FED member CAN be fired, "for cause". There's got to be some dereliction of duty or malfeasance which seems to be a high bar. Cook said yesterday she's not leaving. Grab the popcorn because this should get interesting.
I had a quiet day yesterday. Our SPX trade was good and ended up going to a full profit for those that held. I locked in a small gain before the close. With scalping, I tried three retrace setups that didn't work and that was that for the day. 

Let's take a look at the markets this morning.
​We are still clinging to a buy mode.

It looks like we may be back to stalling out. I think it may take some big catalysts to get us up to new ATH's.

My lean or bias yesterday was bearish which played out well. Futures are down this morning after the Cook news as well as new tariff news. I'm looking for more of a neutral day today. It doesn't look like the overnight news is tanking the futures and I don't see a big catalyst to take us much higher. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.16%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.19% this morning as investors weigh U.S. President Donald Trump’s move to oust Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook and fresh tariff threats.
President Trump announced on Monday that he was dismissing Cook “effective immediately.” The move is based on allegations from one of Trump’s allies that Cook engaged in mortgage fraud, though the claims have not been confirmed. Cook said Trump had no authority to fire her, and she would not resign. Cook’s lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said they intend to take “whatever actions are needed to prevent” Trump’s “illegal action.” Analysts said the episode sounded alarm bells over the central bank’s independence.
Trump also threatened new tariffs and export restrictions on advanced technology and semiconductors in retaliation against digital services taxes abroad. In addition, Trump told reporters on Monday that China must supply the United States with magnets or “we have to charge them 200% tariffs or something.”
Investors now await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended lower. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after it agreed to buy Dutch coffee firm JDE Peet’s for $18.4 billion. Also, furniture stocks slumped after President Trump announced last Friday that the U.S. would launch an investigation into tariffs on furniture imports, with Wayfair (W) and RH (RH) sliding more than -5%. In addition, CSX Corp. (CSX) fell over -5% after CNBC’s Becky Quick reported that Warren Buffett told her Berkshire Hathaway has no interest in acquiring another railroad. On the bullish side, chip stocks gained ground, with Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +1% to lead gainers in the Dow and Lam Research (LRCX) advancing over +1%.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. new home sales unexpectedly fell -0.6% m/m to 652K in July from 656K in June (revised from 627K), though the figure was still stronger than expectations of 635K.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the August CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 96.4, compared to last month’s figure of 97.2.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data. Economists expect July Durable Goods Orders to drop -3.8% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders to rise +0.2% m/m, compared to the prior figures of -9.4% m/m and +0.2% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be reported today. Economists expect the June figure to ease to +2.1% y/y from +2.8% y/y in May.
The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -11 in August, compared to the previous value of -20.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
On the earnings front, notable companies like MongoDB (MDB), Okta (OKTA), and Box (BOX) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 15.7% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in September.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.302%, up +0.63%.

The U.S. just triggered its fourth straight recession signal. The LEI vs. CEI ratio hasn’t been this low since ‘81 and ‘08. The last time it looked like this? Right before the economy broke. ​

We had a good training session yesterday. We'll have another good one next week. I look forward to sharing these with you. I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. Today could be a "mover day" which is what we look for. 

Friday was a big one with Powell hinting that a rate cut may finally be incoming. Markets loved it and pushed back to ATH levels. We had a really solid day, net liq wise with our LULU position continuing to push higher and our ATM portfolio pushing back towards it's ATH's. Scalping went well for us, as you would expect on a day like we had. Our SPX 0DTE didn't hit but it had great risk/reward with $135 risk and $865 max profit potential. These are the types of setups we want, even when they don't hit. Here's a look at my day Friday.

Let's take a look at the markets:
Slight bullish lean holding after Fridays push.

Will the ATH's now be support or resistance?

​The SPX option score chart as of August 22, 2025, highlights an interesting short-term setup. After a steady uptrend in spot price from late June through mid-August, the index has recently shown some choppiness, with prices pulling back slightly from their highs.
At the same time, the option score, which had been holding mid-range for weeks, dropped sharply twice in August before bouncing back toward higher levels again. This pattern suggests that short-term sentiment and positioning have been more volatile than the underlying index movement.
The recent rebound in the option score indicates renewed interest and activity in the options market following brief periods of hesitation. In the near term, the focus will likely be on whether SPX can maintain stability around the 6,400 zone while option sentiment consolidates or strengthens further.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.24%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.32% this morning, pointing to a slightly lower open on Wall Street after last Friday’s rally as some of the optimism around expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts faded.
Investor focus this week is on an earnings report from semiconductor stalwart Nvidia, comments from Fed officials, and the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed sharply higher, with the Dow notching a new all-time high. The Magnificent Seven stocks rallied, with Tesla (TSLA) climbing over +6% and Alphabet (GOOGL) gaining more than +3%. Also, chip stocks advanced, with ON Semiconductor (ON) surging over +6% and GlobalFoundries (GFS) rising more than +5%. In addition, Zoom Communications (ZM) jumped over +12% after the videoconferencing platform posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, Intuit (INTU) slid more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company issued disappointing full-year guidance.
Speaking Friday at the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Chair Jerome Powell cautiously signaled the possibility of a September interest rate cut, citing rising risks to the labor market even as concerns over inflation persist. “The stability of the unemployment rate and other labor market measures allows us to proceed carefully as we consider changes to our policy stance. Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said.
“Powell has thrown the door wide open to a September cut with his Jackson Hole speech that sends a clear, strong signal the Fed is on track to reduce rates by 25 basis points at that meeting,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12.7% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Friday a “major” tariff probe targeting imported furniture. In a Truth Social post, President Trump stated, “Furniture coming from other Countries into the United States will be Tariffed at a Rate yet to be determined.”
This week, market participants will focus on earnings reports from several major companies, with semiconductor giant Nvidia’s (NVDA) report on Wednesday attracting the most attention. Nvidia’s earnings reports have been market-moving since May 2023, when the company delivered the revenue growth forecast that reverberated globally. Analysts expect another record in sales, driven by the continued robust demand for the company’s GPU chips used in generative AI applications. Prominent companies like CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Snowflake (SNOW), Dell Technologies (DELL), Marvell Technology (MRVL), HP Inc. (HPQ), and Autodesk (ADSK) are also set to release their quarterly results this week.
Market watchers will also keep a close eye on a slew of U.S. economic data releases this week to assess whether tariffs are driving inflation higher and to gauge the extent to which the economy is slowing. The July reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight. If the core PCE price index comes in strong, then the Fed may need another weak jobs report for August to justify lowering interest rates, according to Pepperstone head of research Chris Weston. Other data will provide insight into the state of the U.S. economy, including U.S. GDP (second estimate), the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income, and Personal Spending.
In addition, investors will follow comments from Fed officials to gauge their appetite for a rate cut in September. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, New York Fed President John Williams, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin are scheduled to speak this week.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. New Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that July new home sales will stand at 635K, compared to 627K in June.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.273%, up +0.31%.

​The SPY hit another new all-time high last week and closed at $645.31 (+0.28%). The week began with a pullback, and the GoNoGo Trend Indicator shifted to aqua candles, signaling a deceleration in bullish momentum. That changed quickly on Friday, as Powell’s comments at Jackson Hole reignited buying pressure. SPY rallied back above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, accompanied by a return to strong dark blue candles, confirming renewed strength at record highs.

Let's look at expected moves. We were just building back some I.V. and then Fridays push up wiped it all out.

My bias or lean today is bearish. Generally we get a retrace off days like Friday. Even with futures down, as I type, there is a chance the markets get one more push higher before the retrace. That's how I'm playing it today.

​Over the last 48 days, the US Federal Debt has surged by +$1 TRILLION, or +$21 billion PER DAY. Since August 11th, the US has added +$200 billion in debt. Why is US government spending running at WW2 levels in a "strong" economy?

We've got a great part-II training today to address some tendencies we have as traders. I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!

We don't have a lot to discuss this morning. Powell's speech this morning should set the tone for the day.
It's a busy morning of speeches:

We'll be patient this morning and wait to see if we get a trend to develop. Our day yesterday was slow. We had a nice opportunity late in the day with a couple of butterflies. We just caught the corner of one which helped us get some green on the day. We had a great start to scalping but I ended up giving most of it back. Here's a look at my day. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.26% this morning, attempting to snap a five-session losing streak, with focus squarely on a highly anticipated speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. Renewable energy stocks slumped after President Trump said in a social media post that the U.S. would not approve solar or wind power projects, with First Solar (FSLR) sinking about -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Sunrun (RUN) sliding more than -4%. Also, Walmart (WMT) fell over -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the world’s largest retailer posted weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS. In addition, Coty (COTY) tumbled more than -21% after the cosmetics company posted an unexpected quarterly loss and projected that steep sales declines would continue in FQ1. On the bullish side, Nordson (NDSN) rose +3% after the manufacturing company reported better-than-expected FQ3 results and raised its full-year earnings guidance.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a 3-year high of 53.3 in August, stronger than expectations of 49.7. Also, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly rose +2.0% m/m to 4.01 million in July, stronger than expectations of 3.92 million. At the same time, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +11K to a 2-month high of 235K, compared with the 226K expected.
“The great PMI numbers have made it more difficult for Powell to pivot to employment weakness... No fun in the equity space either,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. 
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that she would not support lowering interest rates if policymakers were making a decision tomorrow. “We have inflation that’s too high and has been trending upwards over the past year,” Hammack said. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still views just one rate cut as appropriate for this year, but added that the labor market’s trajectory is “potentially troubling” and warrants close attention. In addition, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said that inflation risks still outweigh risks to the labor market. Finally, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that although some recent inflation data have come in better than expected, he hopes one “dangerous” reading proves to be just a temporary blip.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 69.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 30.7% chance of no rate change at September’s policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the central bank’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors are watching to see whether Powell provides any signal about what the Fed might do at the September meeting. However, it may be difficult for him to give a clear signal, especially with some of his colleagues still not in a rush to cut rates.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 43% of investors expect the market reaction to Jackson Hole to be “neutral,” 39% anticipate “risk-off,” and only 18% expect “risk-on.”
“Key to the Jackson Hole symposium will be whether Fed Chair Powell updates his monetary policy reaction function. In our base case, Powell sticks to his reaction function laid out in July. We think this would surprise markets hawkishly,” said Calvin Tse at BNP Paribas.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.340%, up +0.21%.

Let's take a look at the market: With no idea how the market will react to Powell today it seems appropriate that we start the day technically at a neutral rating. 

With a five day downtrend developing it seems more and more likely that we get a downtrend continuation.

Let's take a look at the main key, intra-day levels today which could dictate todays trend. 6410 is the first resistance level I'm watching with 6441 being the big one. Above that bulls could be back in charge. 6380 is the first support zone I'm watching with 6349 the big one. Below that the bears continue to build downside momentum. I'm routing for the bears.

We had a good training session yesterday. I'm looking forward to Monday when we'll have part two! Make sure to tune in to the zoom then. I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's see is Powell can deliver for us today.