Market analysis for Oct. 24th, 2025

CPI incoming

We finally get a bit of economic data today in spite of the Govt. shutdown continuing. It's likely that it's release won't effect the current risk on environment. The FED is more interested and concerned with Jobs vs. Inflation.

We had another winning day yesterday. Our SPX setup failed but we kept risk in check. Here's a look at our day
Our ATM portfolio briefly touched a new ATH before giving a bit of that gain back. It continues to look like a solid year for our model portfolio.  

Let's take a look at the markets. Bulls are back in charge.

We continue to be stuck around our ATH's.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.32% this morning as investors look ahead to the release of key U.S. inflation data for clues on the health of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
Some positive corporate news is supporting U.S. equity futures, with Intel (INTC) climbing over +8% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted upbeat Q3 results, citing strong demand for PC processors. Also, Ford Motor (F) rose more than +4% in pre-market trading after the automaker reported better-than-expected Q3 results.
Also aiding sentiment, the White House confirmed on Thursday that U.S. President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green. Dow Inc. (DOW) surged nearly +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the commodity chemicals producer posted a narrower-than-expected Q3 loss. Also, energy stocks climbed as the price of WTI crude oil rose more than +5%, with APA Corp (APA) rising over +7% and Valero Energy (VLO) gaining more than +6%. In addition, Honeywell International (HON) advanced over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow and Nasdaq 100 after the industrial conglomerate reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results. On the bearish side, Molina Healthcare (MOH) tumbled more than -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the insurer again cut its full-year earnings guidance.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that U.S. existing home sales rose +1.5% m/m to a 7-month high of 4.06 million in September, in line with expectations.
“As anticipated, falling mortgage rates are lifting home sales. Home prices continue to rise in most parts of the country, further contributing to overall household wealth,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The Department of Labor has recalled a limited number of employees to release the CPI report on a delayed basis, making a rare exception to publish data during the government shutdown. The data, originally scheduled for release on October 15th, will provide Fed officials with key insight into inflation ahead of their policy meeting next week. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. September CPI will come in at +0.4% m/m and +3.1% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in September, unchanged from August’s figures of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 45% of investors expect a “risk-on” market reaction to the CPI report, while 26% anticipate “risk-off” and 29% foresee a “mixed/negligible” response.
“But since the Federal Reserve is likely more focused on the labor market, we don’t expect Friday’s CPI to weigh heavily on next week’s Fed decision,” said Emily Bowersock Hill, founding partner of Bowersock Capital Partners. “We will likely see two more rate cuts this year, in October and December.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 1.1% chance of no rate change at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Investors will also focus on preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys. Economists expect the October S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 51.9 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 53.5, compared to the previous values of 52.0 and 54.2, respectively.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the final October figure will be revised lower to 54.6 from the preliminary reading of 55.0.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Procter & Gamble (PG), HCA Healthcare (HCA), and General Dynamics (GD) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 24th day, with no clear signs of compromise between Republicans and Democrats.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.010%, up +0.50%.

My lean or bias today is bullish unless CPI comes in and wrecks the futures. 

We had a good training yesterday with Matt Tuttle on the failure of the Yield Max ETF's like MSTY and UTLY. Next Monday should be another good one! Make sure and tune in.

Let's look at our intraday /ES levels for 0DTE trading today. While I don't think CPI will be the driver that it can be, it may still throw a spanner in the works. 6804 is really my only focus on the upside resistance. A break above that, and we could get a start to our next bull leg higher. 6796, 6788, 6782, 6777, 6770 are support levels on the way down. 

Today should be a good one for us. We've already got our Gold 0DTE started. I will be out of pocket for about 1hr. this morning between 9:15 -10:15 A.M.  MDT to get some blood work done. That shouldn't affect our trades today. I'll see you all shortly in the live trading room!