Market analysis for Oct. 30th, 2025

Powell gives a small surprise

FOMC has come and gone. Powell made it crystal clear that a Dec. rate cut was not a given. The algos grabbed that quickly and tanked the market. While we slowly worked our way back up towards the close, it was a cautious note that inflation is still real and stagflation (although he rarely uses that word) is a big problem. The big trio of META, GOOG, MSFT all reported earnings after the close. It was a mixed bag of results. We had (have) a 1DTE /ES trade on that expires today but we did scalp on and off. FOMC days are usually good scalping days. Here's a look at our results. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
​Technicals are still holding firmly bullish.

Are we getting a topping pattern here? Who knows? It could just be a pause before we hit another ATH but we know, at some point we'll get a retrace.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.05%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.11% this morning as investors weigh the outcome of the highly anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, mixed Big Tech earnings, and a cautious Federal Reserve.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in person for the first time in six years on Thursday, emerging from what Trump described as “an amazing meeting.” Mr. Trump announced that fentanyl tariffs would be lowered from 20% to 10% effective immediately. The decision was part of a broader framework to ease trade tensions, which Trump said included China’s agreement to lift restrictions on the global trade of its rare earth elements. China’s commerce ministry said it would suspend rare earth export controls for one year, while the U.S. agreed to keep reciprocal tariffs suspended for the same period. China also agreed to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans. The meeting’s outcome was broadly in line with market expectations.
Investors also digested earnings reports from a trio of U.S. tech giants. Alphabet (GOOGL) surged over +7% in pre-market trading after the Google-parent posted upbeat Q3 results. At the same time, Meta Platforms (META) slumped more than -7% in pre-market trading after the maker of Facebook and Instagram reported weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS. Also, Mark Zuckerberg’s pledge to ramp up spending on artificial intelligence has renewed investor concerns that the company may lack a clear path to returns on these investments. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) fell about -3% in pre-market trading after the technology behemoth reported FQ1 revenue growth in its Azure cloud-computing unit that failed to meet lofty expectations.
Investors now await earnings reports from Magnificent Seven companies Apple and Amazon.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 to lower the target range for the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.75%-4.00%, the lowest in three years. Governor Stephen Miran once again dissented, advocating for a larger half-point rate cut. At the same time, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said he would have preferred to leave rates unchanged. In a post-meeting statement, officials reiterated that “job gains have slowed” and noted that “risks to employment rose in recent months.” Policymakers also described economic growth as “moderate” and stated that inflation “has moved up since earlier this year and remains somewhat elevated.” In addition, officials agreed to stop shrinking the Fed’s $6.6 trillion asset portfolio starting December 1st.
At a press conference, Chair Jerome Powell threw some cold water on market expectations of another rate cut in December. “In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December. A further reduction in the policy rate at our December meeting is not a foregone conclusion—far from it. Policy is not on a preset course,” he said. The Fed chair also noted that the absence of economic data during the ongoing government shutdown could prompt policymakers to take a more cautious approach.
“Given these dissents on both sides, it might be difficult to put a down payment on December,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 70.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 29.6% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in December.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed mixed. Nvidia (NVDA) rose about +3% after U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to discuss the chipmaker’s Blackwell AI processors with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Also, Teradyne (TER) jumped more than +20% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the automatic test equipment designer posted upbeat Q3 results and issued above-consensus Q4 guidance. In addition, Caterpillar (CAT) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the maker of heavy construction equipment reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results. On the bearish side, Fiserv (FI) plummeted more than -44% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the financial-technology company posted downbeat Q3 results and cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. pending home sales were unchanged m/m in September, weaker than expectations of +1.6% m/m.
Third-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on. Today, market participants will pay close attention to earnings reports from Magnificent Seven companies Apple (AAPL) and Amazon.com (AMZN). High-profile companies such as Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), Merck & Co. (MRK), Gilead (GILD), and Altria (MO) are also set to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years.
Investors will also parse comments today from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 30th day, with no clear resolution in sight. In light of the government shutdown, the publication of the advance estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product and weekly jobless claims, originally set for today, will be delayed. Allianz Research estimates that the shutdown has likely already shaved 0.45 percentage points off fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.067%, up +0.20%.

​The SPX Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) has turned modestly positive at 1.2%, with implied volatility now sitting in the overvalued range and positioned near the 32nd percentile of its 3-month history.
This suggests that option pricing has slightly outpaced realized volatility as the index continues its upward momentum. In the short term, this setup points to a market environment where traders may be paying up for downside protection, even as spot prices push toward new highs.
Historically, such conditions can indicate short-term caution or hedging activity rather than outright fear. If realized volatility remains subdued and spot prices stabilize above recent resistance, implied vol could ease, potentially tightening the VRP again in the coming sessions.

​The SPY 1-month skew shows a notable call bias, sitting near the 8th percentile of its 3-month range, which suggests that upside options are relatively more favored than downside protection.
This shift often reflects improving sentiment or short-term optimism as traders position for potential follow-through in the recent market rally. The 25-delta risk reversal remains well below the neutral zone, indicating that demand for calls has outpaced puts after a period of balanced skew.
In the short term, this configuration implies a market leaning toward tactical bullish positioning, but also one that could be sensitive to shifts in volatility or macro catalysts that challenge this optimism.

Let's take a look at our intraday levels on /ES for 0DTE today.  6931, 6940, 6950 are resistance levels. 6907, 6900, 6890 are support. 

My lean or bias today is a bit bearish. Earnings came is mixed and Powell threw a bucket of cold water of future rate cuts. Today could be a good day for the bulls to sit on the side lines. 

Zoom Note for today: I've got to run my wife to the airport this morning at 11:30 A.M. MDT so I'll be away for about an hour from our zoom feed. We'll work our trades around that. 
​See you all in the zoom shortly.