Market analysis for Oct. 23rd, 2025

Why do you trade?

Yesterday was very reflective for me. I feel very lucky not to have had a "job" for a couple of decades now. I wanted to become a full time trader for many of the same reasons of many. I wanted the freedom. I wanted the control. I wanted the upside potential. I wanted to not be beholden to an employer, and I've gotten all of that. I'm tremendously grateful but...let's be real. Trading is still a job. You still trade time for money. It can get monotonous and a bit "ground hoggy day." Yesterday though was just pure joy. Our ATM portfolio has some very cool short positions in Nuclear/ A.I. / Quantum stocks. We took advantage of the idiots running up BYND to make a quick 80% ROI. It was a great day for scalping (even though I gave most of my gains back!) and our day trades were spot on. I really, really had fun and enjoyed myself yesterday. Making money is nice (even necessary) but enjoying what you do it critical to having a good life. I'm excited what other shorts we can potentially add to our ATM portfolio today as our Tesla position should put some profit and buying power back into our account.

The key is to have a plan. BYND is no different than GME, AMC, or any other meme stock. All those shot to the moon, and we made money shorting ALL of them. Fundamentals ALWAYS win in the long run. We'll be selling more calls on BYND today. This is a bankrupt company... no one's just told them yet.

The same goes for all the poor retail traders who were suckered into the siren song of the Yield Max ETF scams. We knew the MSTY and UTLY junk would go down. They will continue to go down. Math simply dictates it! We are now up over 70% ROI on our long BTC/ Short MSTY trade. It was such a layup. 

We will be attending a Zoom training today from Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital. He'll share why the math told us these would be failures and a much better approach than 0DTE covered call ETFs. Join us at 12:00 noon MST today for that training. 

​Why Covered Call ETFs Suck-And What To Do Instead
Thursday October 23rd 2-3PM EST

Covered call ETFs are everywhere — and everyone thinks they’ve found a “safe” way to collect yield in a sideways market.

The truth?
Most of them suck.

They cap your upside, mislead investors with “yield” that’s really your own money coming back, and often trail just owning the stock by a mile.

Join me for a brutally honest breakdown of how these funds actually work — and what you should be doing instead.

What You’ll Learn:
 Why “high yield” covered call ETFs are often just returning your own capital
 How most call-writing strategies quietly destroy compounding
 Why owning covered calls in bull markets is like running a marathon in a weighted vest
 The simple structure that can fix these problems — and where the real daily income opportunities are hiding

As I mentioned. Yesterday was crazy busy for us in all our portfolios. It was a fun day. Here's our day trade results. 

Let's take a look at the markets: Technicals are bearish this morning. Let's go!

There's been a lot of volatility and movement, intraday this month. It's all amounted to nothing. At some point we'll get some true directional moves. It certainly seems like its a much bigger ask to see that trend going higher than lower. We'll know for sure eventually. That's why we show up every day. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.01%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.08% this morning as investors digest quarterly results from major companies, including Tesla and IBM, and await a new batch of corporate earnings reports.
Tesla (TSLA) fell over -3% in pre-market trading after the EV maker posted weaker-than-expected Q3 adjusted EPS despite a sales surge. Also, International Business Machines (IBM) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after the technology services giant reported disappointing Q3 revenue in two key software categories. On the positive side, Medpace Holdings (MEDP) surged over +18% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance.
Higher bond yields today are weighing on stock index futures. Treasury yields climbed as higher oil prices reignited concerns about inflation. Oil prices jumped more than +5% after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies over the Ukraine war.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed lower. Netflix (NFLX) plunged over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the streaming giant reported weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS. Also, Texas Instruments (TXN) slid more than -5% to lead chipmakers lower after issuing underwhelming Q4 guidance. In addition, Lennox International (LII) slumped over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the climate control solutions innovator posted mixed Q3 results and cut its full-year guidance. On the bullish side, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) jumped more than +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company reported upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year da Vinci procedure growth guidance.
Thomas Lee at Fundstrat Global Advisors said that the post-earnings drop in companies like Netflix and Texas Instruments “is not thesis-changing.” “We are not necessarily concerned about stocks selling off, short-term,” Lee said. He outlined the main reasons for a strong final 10 weeks of 2025: solid corporate earnings, a dovish Fed, sustained strength in AI visibility, and positive fourth-quarter seasonality.
Third-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors look forward to fresh reports from notable companies today, including Intel (INTC), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Ford Motor (F), Blackstone (BX), and Union Pacific (UNP). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 23rd day, with no clear signs of compromise between Republicans and Democrats. In light of the government shutdown, the publication of weekly jobless claims, originally set for today, will be delayed. Still, investors will focus on the National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 4.06 million in September, compared to 4.00 million in August.
Fed Governor Michael Barr is scheduled to deliver a speech later today at the Novogradac 2025 Fall New Markets Tax Credit Conference. With Fed officials in a blackout period before the October 28-29 policy meeting, Barr is likely to avoid commenting on interest rates.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 96.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 3.3% chance of no rate change at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.990%, up +0.96%.

Commercial Office Delinquency Rate is now worse than the past Financial Crisis ​

Against my better judgement and if you absolutely must gamble on the next "massive short squeeze" here's a list of the equities with the highest percentage of short interest to pick from. 

My lean or bias today is bearish. Let's see if the bears can take some of this weakness and run with it!

Let's take a look at the intraday levels for /ES today.
​Today is a critical day IMHO. If we break the 20-day moving average on the daily chart, the bears will continue to be emboldened.  (blue line)

6740* Fib line as well as 200 P.M.A., 6748, 6753, 6759, 6715 are resistance. 6722, 6711, 6700, 6691, 6665 are support.

Trump is scheduled to speak at 11:00 A.M. MDT. Sometimes these are big nothing burgers and sometimes they are market moving. Generally it's his tweets that come out of nowhere that shake things up. Regardless, I believe I'll start today, once again with a Gold trade and then see what we can find in SPX. 
See you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's have another great day!