Market analysis for Oct. 29th, 2025

FOMC and Powell day

Today's the day. The market is banking on another rate cut. We usually sit on our hands for most of the day until Powell speaks but we do have a 1DTE /ES trade already working so we'll see how that develops as the day progresses. I had some technical issues this morning so I'm getting started on todays post a bit late and as such, it will be a bit shorter. We'll go over our intraday levels in our zoom session.
Yesterday was a bust for me. We focus on multiple strategies and trades so that if one doesn't work we can still have a solid day. Pretty much everything lost for me yesterday. I'm o.k. with the SPX result I went 1 for 4 there so risking only $260 feels like a win but overall it was just a bad day. Here's a look at my results. 

As I mentioned, we have an /ES 1DTE trade already working. It's profitable as I type. I may pull it. Build on it or just sit on it, depending on how the day develops. We could add a credit call spread to it that removes risk to the upside and minimizes risk to the downside. Something like this. Again, lets just see how we open up.

We'll try to get two trainings in today. One on the R-multiple and one on Jessie Livermore discipline. We should have the time as we wait until Powell speaks.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.19%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.35% this morning, buoyed by ongoing tech and AI momentum, while investors await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and U.S. megacap tech earnings.
Stock index futures were boosted by a more than +3% rise in Nvidia (NVDA) in pre-market trading after U.S. President Donald Trump said he plans to discuss the chipmaker’s Blackwell AI processors with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Also aiding sentiment, President Trump said on Wednesday that he expects to sign a trade agreement with China when he meets with Xi on Thursday. Trump also said he plans to reduce tariffs the U.S. has imposed on Chinese goods due to the fentanyl crisis.
However, higher bond yields today are limiting gains in U.S. equity futures. Traders warned that any hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his post-policy meeting press conference could trigger fresh volatility in the world’s largest bond market.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed at record highs. Nvidia (NVDA) climbed nearly +5% after CEO Jensen Huang delivered the keynote speech at the company’s GTC event, stating that the AI industry has “turned a corner” and announcing new partnerships and technologies. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) rose about +2% after the software giant finalized a new agreement with OpenAI that will give it a 27% ownership stake in the ChatGPT-maker valued at around $135 billion. In addition, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted better-than-expected Q3 results. On the bearish side, Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) cratered more than -19% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the life-science-focused REIT posted downbeat Q3 results and cut its full-year adjusted FFO guidance.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 94.6 in October, stronger than expectations of 93.4. Also, the U.S. August S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +1.6% y/y from +1.8% y/y in July, stronger than expectations of +1.4% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose to -4 in October, stronger than expectations of -11.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut for a second consecutive meeting. That would take the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, the lowest level since late 2022. Market watchers will follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for clues on how far and how fast interest rates may fall from here. Notably, U.S. money markets have almost fully priced in a follow-up rate cut in December. Market participants will also watch for signals on when policymakers may stop shrinking the bank’s $6.6 trillion securities portfolio.
Third-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full force. Investors will be closely monitoring earnings reports today from a trio of the Magnificent Seven companies—Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Meta Platforms (META). They will be seeking assurances that the multibillion-dollar investments in computing infrastructure will continue and ultimately deliver returns. Prominent companies like Caterpillar (CAT), ServiceNow (NOW), Boeing (BA), Verizon (VZ), KLA Corp. (KLAC), and CVS Health Corp. (CVS) are also scheduled to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years.
“We expect another strong round of megacap tech earnings reports, given the relentless demand for AI technology and infrastructure,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth. “While profitability in AI remains an unknown, investors for right now are willing to overlook this as the AI arms race heats up.”
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast the September figure at +1.6% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +4.0% m/m.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -0.9 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -1 million barrels.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown has entered its 29th day, with no clear resolution in sight. The shutdown means that official U.S. economic data continue to be delayed. Allianz Research estimates that the shutdown has likely already shaved 0.45 percentage points off fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.992%, up +0.23%.

Technicals are still bullish 

The attempt for new ATH's continues.

Let's see how the morning goes. This afternoon is really when the sparks should fly. See you all shortly!