Welcome back to FOMC day! We had a rare home run yesterday with everything clicking for us. Check out our results below:

We've already got two 0DTE's working this morning. Our goal will be to pull them at a profit prior to FOMC and then we pounce once again and double dip.

Also...big news! The regulators have FINALLY approved the 1 hour to expiration trades! It's been a regulatory nightmare and took almost a year longer than planned but they are very close to being rolled out to a few select platforms in the U.S. and we are one of the lucky ones!  If you're not already signed up for Kalshi so you can trade these, now it the time! There's no cost and you can trade with twenty bucks if you like so there's  no reason to not get set up to take advantage. Frankly, I'm not sure what the best way to trade them is. It will be a learning opportunity for us all. Grab your spot below:

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.22%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.26% this morning as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of the year.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the red. Managed care stocks came under pressure after Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla said U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is “very committed” to reforming the pharmacy benefit manager industry, with Humana (HUM) plunging over -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and CVS Health (CVS) falling more than -5%. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) slumping over -10% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Broadcom (AVGO) sliding nearly -4%. In addition, Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) dropped over -7% after reporting weaker-than-expected FQ2 results. On the bullish side, Pfizer (PFE) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the drugmaker reaffirmed its 2024 guidance and provided a better-than-expected 2025 adjusted EPS forecast. Also, Tesla (TSLA) gained over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Mizuho upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral with a $515 price target.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales climbed +0.7% m/m in November, beating the +0.6% m/m consensus. Also, U.S. November core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, edged up +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m. In addition, U.S. industrial production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m in November, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m, while manufacturing production rose +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later in the day. Fed officials are widely expected to lower interest rates by a quarter percentage point, but the trajectory for the following months is less clear. While the U.S. economy remains resilient, the prospect of inflationary import tariffs proposed by the incoming Donald Trump administration may cause policymakers to reconsider the pace of future interest rate cuts. Market watchers will closely follow the central bank’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference.
“Whether [today’s] Fed decision is positive, negative or neutral for stocks and bonds likely won’t be determined by any actual rate cut, but instead by what the FOMC says about cuts in 2025,” wrote Tom Essaye, president and founder of Sevens Report and a former Merrill Lynch trader.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Micron Technology (MU), Lennar (LEN), General Mills (GIS), and Jabil Circuit (JBL) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast November Building Permits to be 1.430M and Housing Starts to be 1.350M, compared to the prior figures of 1.419M and 1.311M, respectively.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -1.600M, compared to last week’s value of -1.425M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.407%, up +0.50%.

Let's take a brief look at the markets before FOMC.

The technicals are still bullish but...

There are different stories going on, depending on what index you choose to look at. SPY is stalled at ATH's, IWM and DIA are in one their longest losing streaks in a while. Just clinging to their 50DMA's. Its only the QQQ's that continue to climb and climb.

Internally this market looks tired. Take a look at a few things I'm thinking about today. ​"Something Unprecedented Is Happening": This Is The 2nd Longest Run Of Market Bad Breadth In 100 Years

​We now have a CONFIRMED Hindenburg Omen after two bearish signals occurred within one month. The last two times this has occurred for $SPX: Dec 2021 and Feb 2020. Tune in today's episode of CHART THIS for a deeper discussion and implications of this rare but powerful bearish signal! https://buff.ly/3P04dTh

S&P 500 Value Stocks have declined for 11 consecutive trading days, the longest losing streak in history ​

See you all in the zoom shortly. I'm excited to talk about the 1HTE trades and auto trading.

Welcome back traders! Well?...another day of low I.V. Our day trades were fine. We rolled the call sides of both the NDX and SPX and those look like they should cash flow well today so we may have a bit of a gift coming this session. Scalping killed my yesterday so we'll look for better results today. It feels like we are topping here. More on that lower down. Here's my results from yesterday.

We have about $3,400 of potential profits today on our rolled calls so hopefully we can get a bigger score today than we've been getting. Let's take a look at the markets and see where we think today's trend will take us.
We've got a sell mode signal coming into today. We've had a few of these and EVERY SINGLE ONE has been a "buy the dip" opportunity. One of these times is going to be a clear "change of direction" signal. Will today be that day? Who knows? We've got FOMC tomorrow. I do think we are getting close to a retrace.

You could make the argument that the markets been in decline for over a week now. SPY is stuck and can't go higher. DIA and IWM are in a clear downtrend with the DIA in one of it's longest downtrends in recent time. It's the tech heavy QQQ's that keep exploding to new ATH's every day, it seems.

I've mentioned this before. The market internals don't look great. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.45% this morning as investors braced for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting while also awaiting a new batch of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the retail sales report.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching a new all-time high and the blue-chip Dow posting a 3-week low. Broadcom (AVGO) climbed over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, extending last Friday’s rally after it reported better-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS and provided upbeat FQ1 revenue guidance. Also, Tesla (TSLA) gained more than +6% after Wedbush Securities raised its price target on the stock to $515 from $400. In addition, Honeywell International (HON) rose over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after saying it’s exploring a separation of its aerospace business. On the bearish side, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Nasdaq announced that the stock would be removed from the tech-heavy index later this month.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in December, weaker than expectations of 49.4. Also, the Empire State manufacturing index came in at 0.20 in December, weaker than expectations of 6.40. At the same time, the U.S. December S&P Global services PMI unexpectedly rose to 58.5, stronger than expectations of 55.7.
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. While Fed officials are widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, the trajectory for the following months is less clear. Market watchers will closely follow the central bank’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which shows FOMC member forecasts regarding the path of interest rates, and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-decision press conference. 
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that November Retail Sales will stand at +0.6% m/m, compared to the October figure of +0.4% m/m.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.1% m/m in October. Economists foresee the November figure to be +0.4% m/m.
U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released today as well. Economists forecast November Industrial Production at +0.3% m/m and Manufacturing Production at +0.5% m/m, compared to October’s figures of -0.3% m/m and -0.5% m/m, respectively.
“Near-term momentum may depend on what Fed Chair Powell says after the announcement, and whether retail sales or the PCE Price Index catch the market off guard,” said Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.423%, up +0.53%.

One thing I'm thinking about today: P/E ratios. Take a look at where we are at. Compare that to historical levels. You tell me. Are we overvalued?

Once we get an exit on our current 0DTE's I believe it's time to switch over to some bearish debit anchors.

​Let's take a look at our intra-day levels for 0DTE.
/ES: While we are still inside the "chop zone" that I've laid out for over a week now, we are sitting right on top of the support level of 6047. A drop below that could trigger a sell all the way down to 6011. Resistance is up at 6096.

Today's a big one for us with our 0DTE's. Firstly, we could book a nice profit if the market stays down and our rolled calls hit for a full profit but secondly, With FOMC incoming tomorrow it would be nice to start tomorrow with a fresh, clean slate.

I'll see you all in the trading rooms shortly. Let's make some money today!

Welcome back traders! New week...same old low I.V.! That may change this week though. We had our extended family Christmas get together yesterday. The Christmas season is in full swing. I love this time of year. I hope you all have a wonderful holiday season. Let's take a look at our results from last Friday. On the surface, the numbers look good and "normal" for a successful day for us but oh man!...We had to stretch to get it done. If it weren't for scalping and the Event contracts we wouldn't have much to show. 

We've got FOMC coming up Weds. and that could just be the catalyst we need to get things moving again. Let's take a look at the markets as we start this new week. After recording some weakness for the first time in weeks, we get some strength to start off the week.

​Unfortunately for small-cap bulls, IWM was yet again the weakest index of the group, closing notably lower at $233.07 (-2.47%). The orange grid on the GoNoGo Squeeze indicator has now hit the max compression reading, suggesting that the next move will be a powerful one. With this in mind, keep an eye on the blue oscillator line, as the direction it breaks will be a strong indication of where price is headed next. If that move is lower, all eyes will be on the summer highs, around $225.

Let's take a look at the expected moves for the week. The expected move in the SPY is still almost 40% lower than we would like for selling options. The QQQ's are better. We may focus our 0DTE's today on the NDX instead of the SPX.

Once I.V. pops above 14 the selling of options should carry a viable risk/reward. That's not happening today!

There is however, a divergence in the major indices with the DIA and IWM continuing to roll over. While our major focus is on the SPX and NDX, keep an eye on the DIA and IWM. If they continue to roll over from here they could build enough momentum to drag everything else with them.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!

Good morning and good Friday to you all! We had a solid day yesterday. Nat gas took a little work to get back in line but when doesn't it!. See our results below: 

Let's take a look at the markets:
​Bullish bias is pretty locked in, I'd say.

We are seeing a break though between the QQQ's and SPY vs. the DIA and IWM.

Both the IWM and DIA are now down through there respective 50DMA. That's bearish looking to me. The $DJIA has casually dropped over 1,000 points since last week's peak and nobody's even taking about it...

See you all in the live trading room! Also...have a great weekend!

Welcome back traders! CPI came and went. Now we have PPI and Jobless claims kicking off today. I was super happy with our results yesterday. Not because it was a home run day but rather, risk management was strong. Debit trades folks...that's a better risk/reward right now. Here's our results from yesterday.

Let's take a look at what's happening in the market. Yesterdays rally brought the technicals back to buy mode.

Most indices were actually flat to down but the QQQ's continue to rip. Up to new ATH.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.15%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.23% this morning as Treasury yields marched higher, while investors awaited crucial U.S. producer inflation data as well as the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching a new record high. Broadcom (AVGO) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after The Information reported that Apple was working with the chipmaker on a server chip exclusively designed for artificial intelligence. Also, megacap technology stocks advanced, with Tesla (TSLA) gaining more than +5% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +3%. In addition, GameStop (GME) rose more than +7% after the videogame retailer reported a surprise Q3 profit. On the bearish side, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) slid over -5% after analysts cast doubt on the likelihood of Sycamore Partners acquiring the drugstore chain. 
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices increased +0.3% m/m in November, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation picked up to +2.7% in November from +2.6% in October, in line with expectations. Also, the November core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, remained unchanged from October at +3.3% y/y, right on expectations.
“The debate for the FOMC next week between cut or skip is over. This inflation print should be risk asset friendly and provide a tailwind to equity markets as we move through one of the strongest seasonal periods of the year,” said Jeff Schulze at ClearBridge Investments.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. November PPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect November figures to be +0.2% m/m and +3.2% y/y, compared to October’s numbers of +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 221K, compared to last week’s number of 224K.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), and Ciena (CIEN) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.300%, up +0.66%.

Even with an "up" day, more stocks are declining than gaining.

PPI numbers are out. Hotter than expected.

See you all in the trading room soon. We have two 0DTE's already going that should cash flow for us today.

Welcome to CPI day traders! That's our main economic news driver for today. We'll see if the "buy the dip" apprears today. I was wrong yesterday. I thought we'd trend higher. Instead is was lower for most of the day. I got shellaced yesterday! Everything day trading wise lost money. What happened? Two things, I think. #1. We really need to be out of our postions prior to the power hour. Sometimes it's hard but it's but it's a real neccesity now with such low I.V. the Gamma effect is bigger. #2. If the VIX1D is below 14 we need to stick to debit anchor positions. We can work credit trades around it but the debit needs to carry the weight of the trades success/failure. Debit trades as anchor positions will lower our win % but they will get our risk/reward back in line. Were is the VIX1D now? Below 10.

You can check out my miserable results from yesterday below:

Let's take a look at the markets. Markets are flashing a mild sell signal. I don't buy too much into it unles the selling continues today.

The rolling over continues. It's not super strong but were working on a few days now of retrace. I'm mostly focused on IWM and DIA which are both back to key consolidation zones. They are also close to their respective 50DMA. A further drop below could open up the selling. 

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending up +0.10% this morning as investors awaited the all-important U.S. inflation report for clues on whether the Federal Reserve will lower or hold interest rates next week.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed in the red. MongoDB (MDB) tumbled over -16% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company announced that its Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer, Michael Gordon, would step down on January 31st. Also, Moderna (MRNA) slumped more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after BofA reinstated coverage of the stock with an Underperform rating. In addition, Oracle (ORCL) slid over -6% after the IT giant reported weaker-than-expected FQ2 results. On the bullish side, Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) soared more than +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Wall Street Journal reported that the drugstore chain was in talks to sell itself to private equity firm Sycamore Partners. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the tech titan discussed breakthroughs made through the use of its new Willow quantum computing chip.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. Q3 nonfarm productivity was unrevised at +2.2% q/q, while Q3 unit labor costs were revised lower to +0.8% q/q from +1.9% q/q, a smaller increase than expectations of +1.3% q/q.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. November CPI will come in at +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +2.6% y/y.
The U.S. Core CPI will also be closely watched today. Economists anticipate the core CPI to be +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y in November, matching October’s figures.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 37% of investors expect the market response to the consumer inflation report to be “risk-off.” Also, investors are evenly split between those predicting a “risk-on” reaction and those expecting it to be “mixed/negligible.”
“A softer print can clear the path for a year-end rally, with the second half of December being the second strongest period of the year. On the contrary, a firmer print can revamp volatility,” a team led by Ohsung Kwon said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 13.9% chance of no rate change at the December FOMC meeting.
On the earnings front, Photoshop maker Adobe (ADBE) is set to report its FQ4 earnings results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.245%, up +0.52%.

CPI should be the big driver today.

One thing I"m thinking about today:
​​We have now experienced 6 consecutive days with more S&P 500 stocks declining than advancing. When we dig into the data, the top 10 stocks by market cap have an average return of 4.9% since last Monday, while the rest of the S&P 500 has an average return of -1.8%. Is this large-cap leadership going to be the theme for 2025?

CPI data release: 

Look for debit trade "anchor" positions for our 0DTE's until the VIX can get some juice back in it. That may not happen for a very long time unless we get a substantial retrace. See you all in the trading room shortly.

Welcome back traders! We had a very mixed day yesterday. Our net liq. (or account value) was up nicely on the day but virtually every day trade lost money. DOCU, NatGas, IWM, LRN, MRNA, PLTR, UAL all worked together to rescue the day. Let's see if we can get BOTH day trades and the model porfolio to work together today. Here's our results from yesterday. 

Yesterday brought the first real selloff we've seen in about a month! The question today is, does it get bought up or is it the trigger we've been waiting for to usher in a downside move? I favor the "buy the dip" as that's what's happend on EVERY single sell like this over the majority of this year.  Technicals swung to a neutral to start the day. 

We are absolutely seeing a retrace or, in a best case scenario, a pause in the major indicies but...we are also back to key support levels in the weakest of the two. The IWM and the DIA. Today could be key. Will they hold or not?

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.03%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.04% this morning after three major U.S. benchmark indices finished the regular session lower as investors grew more cautious ahead of Wednesday’s release of a key U.S. inflation report.
In yesterday’s trading session, the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 retreated from record highs, while the blue-chip Dow dropped to a 1-1/2 week low. Omnicom Group (OMC) plunged over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after agreeing to acquire Interpublic Group in a deal valued at $13.3 billion, excluding debt. Also, Comcast (CMCSA) slid more than -9% after the head of its cable business said the company expects a Q4 broadband subscriber loss of just over 100,000. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) fell over -2% after China Central Television reported that the State Administration for Market Regulation had launched an investigation into the chipmaker over alleged violations of anti-monopoly laws. On the bullish side, Hershey (HSY) climbed more than +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that Mondelez International was exploring an acquisition of the chocolate maker.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. wholesale inventories rose +0.2% m/m in October, in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, market participants are awaiting the U.S. consumer inflation report for November, due on Wednesday, that will help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy. The CPI is expected to pick up slightly to +2.7% y/y from +2.6% y/y in October, while the core CPI is projected to remain unchanged from October at +3.3% y/y. 
“This Wednesday’s inflation data may hold the key to the Fed’s next move,” said Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets. “So far results have been in line with economists’ expectations and haven’t scared the market. However, an upward surprise should raise eyebrows at the Fed and could put another rate cut on pause.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 13.9% chance of no rate change at December’s policy meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast final Q3 Unit Labor Costs to be +1.3% q/q and Nonfarm Productivity to be +2.3% q/q, compared to the second-quarter numbers of +0.4% q/q and +2.5% q/q, respectively.
Investors will also keep an eye on earnings reports from several notable companies today, including AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson (FERG), and GameStop (GME).
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.217%, up +0.41%.

Welcome back traders! It's a new week. We just came off an absolute stellar set of results last week. Was it our highest grossing profit week ever? Not even close! It was, however a very tough market enviroment for credit traders and we do A LOT of credit trades. We had a home run day last Friday to cap of winning days all week long. I'm so grateful for last weeks results. We earned them. See our Friday results below: 

Who doesn't love putting $4,000 bucks in their pocket? An offshoot of this horrible I.V. enviroment has been that we've had to get more creative (and better) at setups. I'd love to say we are just brilliant traders but honestly, the setups were key.

Let's take a look at the markets to start this new week. Bulls are hanging on but starting to look a bit tired.​

Two things appear clear. #1. The bull just keeps on marching. #2. It's looking tired. SPY is maintaining. IWM and DIA are looking more weak than strong. It's only the QQQ's that are still blasting higher.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.10%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.14% this morning as investors looked ahead to the release of U.S. inflation data later in the week, which will be scrutinized by Federal Reserve officials before their final meeting this year.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. Lululemon Athletica (LULU) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the athleisure retailer posted solid Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance. Also, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) climbed more than +10% after the IT giant reported better-than-expected FQ4 results. In addition, DocuSign (DOCU) jumped over +27% after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and issued above-consensus Q4 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Smith & Wesson Brands (SWBI) tumbled more than -20% after posting downbeat FQ2 results.
The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 227K in November, topping the 218K consensus estimate. At the same time, the U.S. November unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%, weaker than expectations of no change at 4.1%. Also, U.S. average hourly earnings rose +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y in November, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to an 8-month high of 74.0 in December, stronger than expectations of 73.1.
“[November’s] jobs report came out right in the ‘Goldilocks’ zone,” said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments. “With things more or less steady, the Fed should be in a position to continue to ease monetary policy over the next several months, and recent comments suggest the pace at which they will do so will be more gradual in 2025.”
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Friday that the U.S. central bank is “at or near” the point where it should moderate the pace of interest rate cuts, pointing to a robust economy and still-elevated inflation. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said, “I would prefer that we proceed cautiously and gradually in lowering the policy rate as inflation remains elevated.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12.9% probability of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
In the coming week, the U.S. consumer inflation report for November will be the main highlight. Also, investors will be keeping an eye on other economic data releases, including U.S. PPI, Core PPI, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, the Export Price Index, and the Import Price Index. 
Market participants will also focus on earnings reports from several high-profile companies, with Broadcom (AVGO), Adobe (ADBE), Costco (COST), Oracle (ORCL), MongoDB (MDB), Toll Brothers (TOL), AutoZone (AZO), and GameStop (GME) scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.
Federal Reserve officials are in a media blackout period before the December meeting, so they are prohibited from making public comments this week. 
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Wholesale Inventories data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the final October figure to be +0.2% m/m, compared to -0.2% m/m in September. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.161%, up +0.29%.

Expected moves for the week are low, once again.  That's O.K.. We've had low I.V. for weeks now and done just fine. We'll look at starting today with some Iron Flys or Chicken Iron condors. 

Just when you think the VIX can't go any lower...it does. ​

A couple things I'm thinking about today. The ratio of assets in leveraged long ETFs to short ETFs hit 11.1x, the most on RECORD. The difference has TRIPLED this year and is nearly 2 TIMES larger than at the 2021 market frenzy top. Greed has rarely been greater.

Here's something scary out of Apollo group: Via Apollo: "GDP growth in the third quarter came in at 2.8%, and the Atlanta Fed estimates GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be 3.3%. Combined with the recent uptrend in inflation, the probability is rising that the Fed may have to raise interest rates in 2025"

Welcome to Friday! I have to say, I'm pretty happy with our week so far. It's been a week of different setups but it largely worked out for us. Here's our results from yesterday:

Markets still look bullish:

We continue to bounce along the ATH lines with IWM continuing to show the most weakness. Our IWM trade it built with a bit of a brearish slant.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.08% this morning as investors cautiously awaited the all-important U.S. jobs report that will help determine whether the Federal Reserve will lower or hold interest rates later this month.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended lower. Synopsys (SNPS) plunged over -12% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chip design software firm provided below-consensus 2025 revenue guidance. Also, SentinelOne (S) slumped more than -13% after the cybersecurity company reported a wider-than-expected Q3 loss. In addition, American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) tumbled over -14% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 revenue and cutting its full-year comparable sales forecast. On the bullish side, Brown-Forman (BF.B) climbed more than +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat FQ2 results. Also, Tesla (TSLA) gained over +3% after BofA raised its price target on the stock to $400 from $350. 
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +9K to a 6-week high of 224K, compared with the 215K expected. Also, the U.S. October trade deficit narrowed to -$73.80B from -$83.80B in September, better than expectations of -$75.70B.
“We’ll get a fuller picture from [Friday’s] monthly jobs report, but for now, the story continues to be a labor market that occasionally appears to bend, but avoids breaking,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 32.5% chance of no rate change at December’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that November Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 218K, compared to October’s figure of 12K.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 45% of investors expect key U.S. jobs data to be “mixed/negligible,” 32% anticipate it will be “risk-off,” and 23% foresee “risk-on.”
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will also be closely watched today. Economists expect November figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.4% m/m and +4.0% y/y.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to remain steady at 4.1% in November.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will come in today. Economists forecast the preliminary December figure to be 73.1, up from last month’s figure of 71.8.
U.S. Consumer Credit data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to stand at $10.10B in October, compared to the previous figure of $6.00B.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.195%, up +0.32%.

A couple things I'm thinking about today:
​Credit card defaults are rising at record levels This is WORSE than the 2008 Financial Crisis

​S&P 500 price to book basically at 2000 levels. Not sure if you all remember 2000?

/NQ. Range is a bit bigger here. 21,542 is resistance with 21,389 support. Not much change from yesterday.

What a day yesterday! This is such a tough market for credit traders. If you build soley credit setups, even if you win you lose because your risk/reward is horrible and you are trading setups with no positive expectancy. If you trade debit setups you need big moves and those have been rare. Traders are really between a rock and a hard place right now. We stayed on top of our setups and managed risk well. Even with the cost of adjustments our day went pretty darn well. Our net liq was up and all our 0DTE's made money with the exception of our small BTC trade. Check our performance below:

Let's take a look at the markets. Technicals are still bullish. It would take a pretty decent retrace to change that at this point.

"ATH's all day long" seems to be the theme right now. IWM is wavering a bit but it sure looks like we are coiling to push higher. We are at an amazing 12 days of up, up, up on the SPX. It WILL pause and retrace at some point...it always does but when? Nobody knows.

The fear and greed index isn't off the charts greedy as you'd suspect when we keep bouncing to new ATH's.

No matter how much bullishness we get, I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't make the counter argument for downside.

​The US govt brings in about $5 trillion per year in revenue from taxes, fees and tariffs. The US govt is on pace to spend about $1.4 trillion for interest payments on the $36 trillion in debt during 2025. That will be about 28% of all govt revenue going to interest payments.

As strong as the market is the A/D line isn't that impressive and you'd think more stocks would be above their respective 50/200 DMA.

Volume has been dropping during this current bull run going all the way back to October.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.05%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.13% this morning, taking a breather after yesterday’s rally, while investors turned their attention to U.S. jobless claims numbers due later today and key non-farm payrolls data scheduled for Friday.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher, with the S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq 100 posting new all-time highs. Marvell Technology (MRVL) soared over +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat Q3 results and issued above-consensus Q4 guidance. Also, Salesforce (CRM) climbed about +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after the software giant reported better-than-expected Q3 revenue and raised the lower end of its full-year revenue forecast. In addition, Pure Storage (PSTG) surged over +22% after the data storage company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and lifted its annual revenue outlook. On the bearish side, The Campbell’s Company (CPB) slid more than -6% after reporting weaker-than-expected FQ1 net sales.
The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 146K in November, down from 184K in October (revised from 233K) and missing the consensus estimate of 152K. Also, the U.S. November ISM services index fell to 52.1, weaker than expectations of 55.7. In addition, the final estimate of the U.S. November S&P Global services PMI was revised lower to 56.1 from the 57.0 preliminary reading. Finally, U.S. factory orders rose +0.2% m/m in October, in line with expectations.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the U.S. economy is in “very good shape.” He added that policymakers could afford to be “a little more cautious” with lowering rates. Also, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem stated, “It seems important to maintain policy optionality, and the time may be approaching to consider slowing the pace of interest rate reductions or pausing, to carefully assess the current economic environment, incoming information, and evolving outlook.” In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly stated that there is no immediate urgency to lower rates.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that economic activity saw a slight increase in November following little change in previous months, with U.S. businesses becoming more optimistic about demand prospects. The report noted that modest or moderate growth in three regions offset flat or slightly declining activity in two others. The Fed’s districts also reported that prices increased at a modest pace. “Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors,” according to the Beige Book. “Business contacts expressed optimism that demand will rise in coming months. Consumer spending was generally stable.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 74.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 26.0% chance of no rate change at December’s policy meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 215K, compared to last week’s number of 213K.
The U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today as well. Economists forecast this figure to stand at -$75.70B in October, compared to the previous figure of -$84.40B.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Dollar General (DG), Kroger (KR), DocuSign (DOCU), Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), GitLab (GTLB), Lululemon Athletica (LULU), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.214%, up +0.77%.