Welcome to a new week traders! I hope you all had a great weekend. Our family sent the last week up at our cabin and while we had a lot of fun activities, it was spending time with loved ones that was most meaningful. We are a little depressed now. Thanksgiving though New years is our favorite time of year. I hope all is well with you all! We had a pretty solid day Friday. We waited quite a while into the day before starting our 0DTE's and then we waited even longer to add to them. Did it cost us premium? Absolutely! Did it give us more visability and an easier day? Yes. We've tried to actually LOWER our income goals for this year. It should be (obviously) easier to obtain and take less capital commited on a daily basis. If we can average a $1,000 a day profit this year I think most of our traders will be happy with our program. Here's our results from this past Friday.

Let's take a look at the markets to start off another holiday shortened week.
I've talked alot about the "cliff" that we were sitting on and how the bulls really needed to defend those levels. They did that and then so on Friday and it looks like the futures are implying a continuation of that bullish rebound today. 

We've got the SPY and QQQ both back above their 50DMA now and the DIA and IWM still look week but seem to have stopped their slide and are at least consolidating.

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.45%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.71% this morning, pointing to a strong opening on Wall Street, while investors looked ahead to the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and a raft of U.S. labor market data.
Technology stocks led the gains in U.S. equity futures as spending plans by Microsoft highlighted the continued demand for artificial intelligence infrastructure, with chip heavyweights Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising over +2% in pre-market trading.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed in the green. Megacap technology stocks advanced, with Tesla (TSLA) climbing over +8%. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with ARM Holdings (ARM) surging more than +10% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +4%. In addition, Block (SQ) advanced more than +6% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $115 price target. On the bearish side, U.S. Steel (X) slumped over -6% after U.S. President Joe Biden blocked the $14.1 billion sale of the company to Japan’s Nippon Steel.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high of 49.3 in December, stronger than expectations of a decline to 48.2.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said Friday that he still sees upside risks to inflation and growth, which positions him in the camp of “wanting rates to stay restrictive for longer.” Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Saturday that although there has been considerable progress in reducing inflationary pressures over the past two years, inflation remains “uncomfortably above our target.” In addition, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said, “Obviously our job is not done. We’re not at 2% yet, so we’re definitely aiming still to get there, and we know the job is not done.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 90.9% probability of no rate change and a 9.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at January’s monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock markets and the federal government will be closed on Thursday in observance of the National Day of Mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Also, the bond market will close at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Thursday, per the recommendation of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. The closures follow a long-standing American tradition where financial institutions halt operations after the death of a president.
Market watchers will be closely following the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for December this week. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Exports, Imports, Trade Balance, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, Consumer Credit, Average Hourly Earnings, the Unemployment Rate, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary).
Also, investors will closely monitor the release of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the December 17-18 meeting on Wednesday, which might offer insights into how various policymakers view the impact of Trump’s proposed policies on the economy and how this could influence the outlook for interest rates.
In addition, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will be making appearances this week.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the final December figure will be 58.5, compared to November’s figure of 56.1.
U.S. Factory Orders data will also be released today. Economists forecast this figure to be -0.3% m/m in November, compared to the previous number of +0.2% m/m.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.622%, up +0.59%.

Let's take a little bigger view of the markets over the last year. 
​The SPY emerged as the top dollar gainer in 2024, adding an impressive $113.41 per share to close the year at $586.02 (+23.99%). However, Q4 delivered the most modest gains of the year, with the index advancing just +2.2%. December stood out as one of only three red months in 2024, alongside October and April, tempering what was otherwise a standout year for the ETF.

​IWM delivered the most modest returns among the major indexes in 2024, rising just $21.41 per share to close the year at $220.95 (+10.73%). Q4 proved turbulent for small caps, marked by new all-time highs followed by an equally sharp sell-off, ultimately eking out a minimal +0.35% quarterly gain. December capped off the year as its worst month, erasing November’s gains with an -8.81% decline.

Welcome back to Friday! It feels like this week has flown by. It's definately a net postive to have breaks in your trading schedule. Yesterday was quite the roller coaster. Before we talk about our results lets focus on the price action. It may certainly seem as though the erradic movement of yesterday was atypical, I would suggest it was very typical of a neutral techincal rated day when we were sitting right at critical support levels. Most of you who have traded with my for a while know, I'm not a fan of neutral rating technical days. They are almost exclusively erradic and incredibly hard to read. That coupled with the fact that the markets are just hanging on it critical support levels and well...it made for an especially tricky day. 

As far as our results, I'm pleased we were able to pull a profit on the day, even if it was slight. One key point I continue to make in our trading room is, "differsify your postions". The only reason I can think of to NOT do both SPX and NDX setups together is you purposely want to concentrate risk. That can be a valid rational, at times. The NDX has more profit potential and the SPX is generally easier to trade so selecting only one seems to make sense, however, concentrating your risk will create uneven results. 

Take the last two trading days for example. Tues. saw the NDX profit explode while the SPX did little.

Yesterday saw the SPX profit hit for a home run and the NDX lost.

Lack of buying power is NOT an issue or impediment to doing both as we've talked about the ability to use the XSP instead of the SPX and the /MNQ instead of NDX to potentially reduce your buying power requirements by 90%

​O.K. on to our results from yesterday.

Let's take a look at the market as we get ready to finish off the week. We have an ever so slight sell rating to start the day.

When I say we are quickly approaching some very key support levels, this is what I mean. With all our major indices pushing below their 50DMA and key, critical support areas hovering just below current prices it becomes critical for the bulls to hold here. Any further weakness could trigger significant downside price action.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending up +0.29% this morning, indicating an attempt by the benchmark index to snap a five-session losing streak, while investors awaited U.S. manufacturing data and remarks from a Federal Reserve official.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended lower. Tesla (TSLA) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the EV giant reported weaker-than-expected Q4 vehicle deliveries and posted a fall in annual deliveries for the first time in over a decade. Also, Apple (AAPL) slid more than -2% after Reuters reported that the tech giant was offering rare discounts on several iPhone models in China due to rising competition from domestic rivals. In addition, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) dropped over -8% after Keefe Bruyette downgraded the stock to Underperform from Market Perform with a price target of $8. On the bullish side, Constellation Energy (CEG) climbed more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after announcing it has secured two contracts with the U.S. government to supply over $1 billion in electricity and services. Also, chip stocks advanced, with ARM Holdings (ARM) and Micron Technology (MU) gaining over +3%.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell by -9K to an 8-month low of 211K, compared with the 222K expected. Also, the U.S. December S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised upward to 49.4, beating the consensus of 48.3. In addition, U.S. construction spending was unchanged m/m in November, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
“The claims data are consistent with a labor market that is strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to proceed with rate cuts at a more measured pace in 2025,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, Lead U.S. Economist at Oxford Economics.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.8% probability of no rate change and an 11.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the December ISM manufacturing PMI will be 48.2, compared to November’s figure of 48.4.
Also, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
On the political front, investors will be monitoring the U.S. House Speaker vote later today to see if Mike Johnson will retain his position. Republican infighting over his reelection might spell trouble for Trump’s agenda, according to Tom Essaye, founder of the Sevens Report.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.553%, down -0.48%. 

Trade docket today: Manufacturing PMI and FED Barkin speaking today should be the main news catalysts to drive price action Docket
10:00 ET
US ISM Manufacturing PMI for December
Median Forecast: 48.2 | Prior: 48.4 | Range: 49.7 / 46.9
Manufacturing Prices Paid
Median Forecast: 51.4 | Prior: 50.3 | Range: 53.7 / 51

Speakers
11:00 ET
Fed’s Barkin gives keynote remarks at an event hosted by the Maryland Bankers Association, in participation with the Maryland Association of CPAs, Maryland Chamber of Commerce, Maryland Realtors, and Maryland Retailers Alliance.
Text and Q&A expected
ECB’s Lane participates in a panel on “Geopolitical Fragmentation” hosted by the American Finance Association at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association/Allied Social Science Associations in San Francisco.

These happen a bit into the trading day. I don't think there is any rush to get trades started BEFORE these two events. Patience is key today. My plan today is to continue working our long /MNQ scalp which produced for us yesterday and focus on our two 0DTE's. Bitcoin price action is pretty dead at the moment and doesn't look to provide good 1HTE or swing setups for the day so I'll probably skip them.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's make some green to close out the week!

Welcome back traders! I hope everyone had a great New Years day off! It's always a good thing to take breaks from your trading routine and "sharpen the saw" a bit. We had an amazing day on Tues. Our ratio trades worked out well. In addition to the 1HTE's we've introduced on Bitcoin well be adding directional trades to BTC as well to our daily setups. These will be largely 0DTE or day trade setups but done on a swing trade basis. This, along with our Friday equity 0DTE opportunities should give us plenty of opportunities to hit our goal of $250,000+profit this year. You can, of course, track our progress here in the blog on a daily basis. Here are our results from Tues.

I start this new trading year with a good spirit and a lot of hope for the potential that we have. The market has done something it rarely does. It's booked two consecutive years of 20%+ gains. That's rare and when it does happen we usually have a bit of a let down the following year. That could be potentially a great thing for us. Down or even flat markets tend to have better I.V. than upward trending ones. Let's take a look at the markets before we start our trading day.
Tuesdays weakness has brought us to the edge of a cliff. The SPY now joins the IWM and DIA below their 50DMA's. The QQQ's are just holding on. You can see that all four indices are sitting on major consolidation zones. If we lose these levels we could get some significant downside.

Technicals have moved back to a neutral rating which seems appropriate for where we are sitting. A move higher off these consolidated levels would be bullish and a move below would trigger big potential bearish signs.

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.56%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.73% this morning as trading resumed after the New Year’s Day holiday, with investors awaiting a new batch of U.S. economic data.
Technology stocks led the gains in U.S. equity futures, signaling a rebound on Wall Street following a four-day losing streak that marked the end of 2024. Treasury yields fell on the first trading day of the new year, boosting investors’ risk appetite.
In Tuesday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed in the red, with the benchmark S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropping to 1-week lows. Tesla (TSLA) slid over -3% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after announcing a recall of 77,713 vehicles in China due to software issues and possibly faulty driver airbags. Also, chip stocks retreated, with Nvidia (NVDA) falling more than -2% to lead losers in the Dow and Micron Technology (MU) dropping over -1%. In addition, Sangamo Therapeutics (SGMO) plummeted about -56% after Pfizer terminated its collaboration and license agreement with the company to develop a novel gene therapy for hemophilia A. On the bullish side, U.S. Steel (X) surged more than +9% after the Washington Post reported that Nippon Steel proposed giving the U.S. government a veto over output cuts as part of a final effort to secure approval for its planned merger.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. October S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +4.2% y/y from +4.6% y/y in September, stronger than expectations of +4.1% y/y.
“There’s no Santa Claus rally this week, but investors received the gift of gains in 2024. [It] was a massive year for equity gains driven by a trifecta of the AI explosion, a slew of Fed interest rate cuts, and a robust U.S. economy,” said Greg Bassuk, chief executive officer at AXS Investments.
Market participants are entering the new year with several challenges, chief among them inflation and the Federal Reserve’s reaction to it, particularly after Chair Jerome Powell indicated there would be fewer interest rate cuts ahead. The markets are currently pricing in about 50 basis points of additional interest rate cuts from the Fed this year. Another question is how the pro-growth policies of President-elect Donald Trump will impact consumer prices and federal finances. The growth outlook in Europe and China will be on investors’ radar as well.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the final December figure will be 48.3, compared to November’s figure of 49.7.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 222K, compared to last week’s number of 219K.
U.S. Construction Spending data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to come in at +0.3% m/m in November, compared to the previous number of +0.4% m/m.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -2.400M, compared to last week’s value of -4.237M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.534%, down -0.94%.

Our goal, as always, is to put us in a position to make at least $1,000 profit per day. 

Let's have a great day folks. I'll see you all in the live trading room chat in a bit. I look forward to trading with you today.

Welcome to the last trading day of the year! Happy New year!

We talked about goals in our zoom yesterday and I put out a quarter million dollar goal for our day trade results for next year. We'll be tracking our progress here in the blog on a daily and monthly basis. We have put on some modified ratio 0DTE trades over the past week but yesterday was probably the first "offical day" setup. It performed as expected. Super high P.O.P. of 95%+. Low stress, Low work requirement. High consistency. The rest of this week is very low volume and I'll also  be up in the mountians with my family until next Monday with limited internet. That means no Zoom feed on Thurs. but we'll be trading both Thurs. and Friday with a primary focus on the 0DTE ratio trades and the 1HTE Bitcoin setups.
Take a look at our results from yesterday. I'm thrilled with how things went.

Let's take a look at the markets.
Sell mode is still got a firm grip on the market.

Yesterday was a strange day but maybe typical of the holiday week. Low volume and erradic moves. We started the day with a big selloff and worked to climb back all day. Our levels held perfectly and it made for an easy day.

My lean of bias for today is still slightly bearish. We are back down to some decent support levels but the pressure still seems down.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.26%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.30% this morning, pointing to a positive start on Wall Street in the final trading session of 2024.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended lower, with the benchmark S&P 500, the blue-chip Dow, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 falling to 1-week lows. Mega-cap technology stocks retreated, with Tesla (TSLA) dropping over -3% and Meta Platforms (META) sliding more than -1%. Also, chip stocks came under pressure, with Micron Technology (MU) and On Semiconductor (ON) slumping over -3%. In addition, MicroStrategy (MSTR) plunged more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company disclosed that it had bought 2,138 bitcoins for $209 million in the past week. On the bullish side, American Airlines (AAL) rose over +1% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a $24 price target.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low of 36.9 in December, missing the 42.7 consensus. At the same time, U.S. November pending home sales climbed +2.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m.
Meanwhile, the U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Wednesday for the New Year’s Day holiday. Also, the U.S. bond market will close early at 2 p.m. Eastern Time today for New Year’s Eve.
Optimism about interest rate cuts, enhancements in corporate profitability due to artificial intelligence integration, and expectations that President-elect Donald Trump’s policies could stimulate economic growth have driven much of this year’s gains on Wall Street. The benchmark S&P 500 index has been in a bull market for over two years and is set to finish its second consecutive year with gains exceeding +20%. The blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 indexes are poised to end 2024 higher by about +13% and +26%, respectively.
“Investors are looking forward to two big things [next year]: whether Trump’s policies are going to be pro-growth or not, and if the Fed is going to continue injecting easy money into the system,” said Adam Sarhan, chief executive at 50 Park Investments. 
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.8% chance of no rate change and an 11.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast this figure to be +4.1% y/y in October, compared to +4.6% y/y in September.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.521%, down -0.53%.

​US equity funds saw a -$35.3 BILLION net outflow last week, the largest weekly outflow since December 2022. This is a sharp contrast to the ~$14 billion of weekly net INFLOWS seen since Fed interest rate cuts began. What does this mean as we head into 2025?

We are getting closer to a take profit on our Theta fairy. That would be a nice start to our day. I'll see you all in the trading room shortly.

Welcome back traders to the last few days of 2024. Markets look to continue the profit taking instead of the "Santa rally" that so many were hoping for. We had a stellar day last Friday. Our results are below: 

Let's take a look at the markets:
​Sell mode continues.

The SPY is now threatening to join the IWM and DIA, trading down below their 50DMA.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.22%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.20% this morning, adding to Friday’s declines on Wall Street, as market participants reduced positions amid uncertainty heading into year-end.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed in the red. Mega-cap technology stocks slumped, with Tesla (TSLA) sliding nearly -5% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Nvidia (NVDA) dropping over -2% to lead losers in the Dow. Also, Netflix (NFLX) fell more than -2% after receiving mixed reviews for its new release, “Squid Game Season 2,” which debuted on Thursday. In addition, Viracta Therapeutics (VIRX) tumbled over -32% after announcing the termination of its ongoing Nana-val trial and that its board has begun a process to explore strategic options. On the bullish side, Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) rose over +2% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after a filing showed that activist investor Jana Partners is working with a sixth executive to advocate for changes at the French fry maker. 
“[It] feels like there is quite a bit of profit-taking across the board. We are more than two years into a pretty strong bull market ... so it’s really not surprising to see some people taking their profits and rebalancing their portfolios ahead of the new year,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. 
Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. November trade deficit widened to -$102.86B from -$98.26B in October, a larger deficit than expectations of -$101.30B. Also, U.S. wholesale inventories unexpectedly fell -0.2% m/m in November, compared to expectations of a +0.1% m/m increase.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.8% chance of no rate change and an 11.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in January.
The U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed on Wednesday for the New Year’s Day holiday. Also, the U.S. bond market will close early at 2 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday for New Year’s Eve.
In this holiday-shortened week, investors will be eyeing several economic data releases, including the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., Initial Jobless Claims, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, Crude Oil Inventories, and the ISM Manufacturing PMI.
Market participants will also focus on remarks from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on Friday. 
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. Chicago PMI, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast that the Chicago PMI will stand at 42.7 in December, compared to last month’s value of 40.2. 
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will be released today as well. Economists expect the November figure to be +0.9% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +2.0% m/m.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.596%, down -0.50%.

Some things I'm thinking about today:
​If the S&P 500 closes this 7-day trading period in the red, it would make history. This would mark the 3rd time since 1950 with back-to-back losses in the "Santa Claus" rally period. In 2023, the S&P 500 lost -0.9% during this period and it is now down -0.1% since December 24.
​

Welcome back traders! Merry and Happy Christmas eve!

We had a solid day yesterday with everything clicking. See our results below:

We have a shortened trading session today before the Holiday break so todays blog will be short and sweet.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.14%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.18% this morning ahead of a holiday-shortened pre-Christmas trading session.
The U.S. stock markets will close early at 1 p.m. Eastern Time today and remain closed on Wednesday in observance of the Christmas holiday.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended higher. Qualcomm (QCOM) rose over +3% after a U.S. federal jury ruled that the company’s central processors are properly licensed under its agreement with Arm Holdings. Also, chip stocks advanced, with GlobalFoundries (GFS) and Broadcom (AVGO) climbing more than +5%. In addition, Eli Lilly (LLY) gained over +3% after the FDA approved the company’s weight-loss drug Zepbound for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea in adults with obesity. On the bearish side, Walmart (WMT) dropped more than -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau filed a lawsuit against the retail giant and financial technology firm Branch for allegedly “taking advantage” of over one million delivery drivers. 
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index unexpectedly fell to 104.7 in December, weaker than expectations of 112.9. Also, U.S. November durable goods orders slipped -1.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.3% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. In addition, U.S. new home sales rose +5.9% m/m to 664K in November, just below the consensus estimate of 666K.
“The economic outlook is deteriorating,” said Neil Dutta at Renaissance Macro Research. “This was true before the Fed’s December confab and remains true after. The risk of the Fed flip-flopping is quite high.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.4% chance of no rate change and an 8.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure to come in at -10 in December, compared to last month’s value of -14.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.594%, down -0.11%.

Welcome back traders! I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas and were able to celebrate with family and friends. That's ultimately the greatest asset we can ever possess. We are back at it today and even though our trade docket will be light for the rest of the week, today is a HUGE day for us. My net liq is already up over $7,000 this morning just on our futures positions. We have a big /NQ cover on our /MNQ short position. Our Dec. Nat gas position could yield $5,000 of profit today and our /SI position expires today as is very close to a take profit. 
​Let's take a look at the market. 

The Santa Claus rally seems to be the real deal. Sure, IWM and DIA are still struggling below their 50DMA but everything else looks pretty solid and techs are back participating.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.45%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.52% this morning as Treasury yields climbed after cash trading resumed following the Christmas holiday, with investors turning their attention to U.S. jobless claims numbers due later today.
In Tuesday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed in the green. All the Magnificent 7 megacap technology stocks advanced, with Tesla (TSLA) climbing over +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500. Also, chip stocks extended gains after the Biden administration launched a probe into Chinese chips, with Broadcom (AVGO) rising more than +3% and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) gaining over +1%. In addition, NeueHealth (NEUE) soared more than +74% after the company announced that it had agreed to be taken private by New Enterprise Associates in a $1.3 billion deal. 
“Santa Claus rally could still be alive, with strong seasonality into the end of the year,” said London Stockton at Ned Davis Research.
A Santa Claus rally refers to the consistent gains observed in the stock market over the final five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has delivered average and median returns of 1.3% during this period, significantly exceeding the market’s average seven-day gain of 0.3%, according to Adam Turnquist at LPL Financial. 
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index came in at -10 in December, in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.4% chance of no rate change and an 8.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in January.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 223K, compared to last week’s 220K.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.621%, up +0.72%.
Most major markets in Europe remain closed today.

Some things I'm thinking about today:
​It certainly looks like we are getting a bullish signal.

However, divergence is still strong.

I would also be remiss if I didn't mention that bubbles DO happen.

To make things more scary, we are in a "concentration bubble". 

I'll see you all (or at least those who are still trading this week) in the zoom shortly!

Good morning traders! Welcome back to a holiday shortened trading week. I hope everyone is set for Christmas. Markets are closed Weds.but we'll be trading Thurs. and Fri. They can be light volume or heavy volume, depending on price action. I feel like we are at a possible turning point or inflextion point in the markets. Here's some data from the great Bravos research.
​The US stock market just erased 2 months of gains in a single day, dropping 3% after the Federal Reserve meeting.
In just 1 hour, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell managed to kill all the market's built-up complacency and greed.

​This correction's speed is particularly noteworthy.
Looking back over recent years, such rapid declines often spark comparisons to the 2022 bear market.

Our results from last Friday were mixed with some positives. We close out our BWB and BF on SPX at a loss. Down -$4,200 which was not what we wanted but, we did bring in a substantial amount of income off of those over the past week. The bright spot was our 1HTE's on Bitcoin. 5 trades. 4 wins/ 1 loss for a total of just under $1,300 of income for the day. It will likely take a few months of trading these to find the most appropriate setups. We've already learned that, while you can trade it all day long, the first four hours are yielding us the best setups. We've yet to establish position sizing or income goals for this trade. We'll keep collecting data and update it on the website 1HTE.com as we aquire it.  I believe there is a good chance we could generate $400 dollars a day consistently. This would be a nice add to our exsisting scalping program.

Let's take a look at the markets:
​We start off the day with a neutral rating. These are tough days to predict so I won't! No bias or lean for me today other than to repeat...I wouldn't be surprised to see us rollover here and continue the downward, post- FOMC move.

Neutral rated days don't usually last long before we get some directional bias back but in many ways todays rating makes a lot of sense. As you can see, all the indices we track and trade are now right back to previous consolidation zones. If we hung out here for a few days it would make sense. If we used this level as a spring board to go higher, I don't think anyone would be surprised and if we continued to roll over and head down I think we'd all say, "I saw that coming" so....neutral is an appropriate rating for today. 

​The key question now is: how long will the selling persist? After a sharp and significant correction on Wednesday and Thursday, the markets saw a strong bounce on Friday, but it remains to be seen whether this is the start of a sustained recovery or just a temporary reprieve. Let’s take a closer look at the charts and assess how things are shaping up as we head into Christmas week.

The SPY took the lightest hit this week, closing at $591.15 (–2.17%). After slicing through the 50-SMA on Wednesday, Thursday’s attempt to reclaim it hit a wall, and Friday’s sharp rebound stalled at the same level. Next week sets the stage for a showdown: a successful reclaim of the 50-SMA could keep buyers in the game, but failure might hand control back to sellers, with the 100-SMA at $573 squarely in sight.

​Though the QQQ took a bigger hit than the SPY, closing the week at $518.66 (-2.24%), its setup appears far more constructive. Despite the sharp correction, it never traded below the 50-SMA and ended the week with a strong close above this key level—signaling buyers remain firmly in control for now.

 One benefit to last weeks sell off is that I.V. has returned! It's not what it should be (IMHO) but, it's better than we've had as of late.

See you all in the trading room shortly.

Welcome to Friday, once again! This week flew by. We had a productive day yesterday but it was a little different. We set up a bearish SPX trade going into today and that should cash flow our whole SPX position today. It could be as much as a $4,000 profit after we finish working it.

We also started working with the 1HTE trades on Bitcoin. We've still got a lot of work to do. I'd like to get 10 full days of trading data before we start implementing a plan and setting expectations. This is a quick review of our results that I posted to twitter yesterday. Scaling, Position sizing and stop losses are what we need to get a handle on. Our fist day test went well but it needs to generate at least $200 a day to make it worth it. 

Bookmark the website 1HTE.com as we'll be adding more data as we build out the trading system.

Let's take a look at the markets. Sell mode is back! Will it hold? It certainly looks like it right now. 

The only major index still hovering above it's 50DMA is the QQQ. Granted, The SPY, IWM and DIA are sitting on new support levels but there's no way around it. Things look bearish.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.80% this morning as risk sentiment took a hit on worries about a possible U.S. government shutdown, while investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge for fresh clues on its policy outlook.
The United States faced renewed political uncertainty on Thursday evening after the Republican-led House rejected a temporary funding plan supported by President-elect Donald Trump. Dozens of Republican lawmakers opposed the deal to fund the government for three months and suspend the U.S. debt ceiling for two years, with less than 24 hours remaining before a U.S. government shutdown.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed. Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) tumbled over -20% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat FQ2 results and cut its annual adjusted EPS guidance. Also, Micron Technology (MU) plunged more than -16% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the memory maker issued below-consensus FQ2 guidance. In addition, Lennar (LEN) slid over -5% after the homebuilder reported weaker-than-expected FQ4 results and offered a soft FQ1 new orders forecast. On the bullish side, Darden Restaurants (DRI) surged more than +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after posting upbeat FQ2 results and boosting its 2025 sales guidance.
The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday that the Q3 GDP growth estimate was revised upward to 3.1% (q/q annualized) in its final print, stronger than expectations of no change at 2.8%. Also, U.S. November existing home sales rose +4.8% m/m to an 8-month high of 4.15M, stronger than expectations of 4.09M. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. unexpectedly rose +0.3% m/m in November, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m and the largest increase in 2-3/4 years. At the same time, the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to a 20-month low of -16.4 in December, weaker than expectations of 2.9. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -22K to 220K, compared with the 229K consensus.
“This week’s data show the economy is set to end 2024 on a solid note, which is fortunate since we’ll have to contend with heightened policy uncertainty and possibly greater challenges in 2025. We think the Fed maintains an easing bias, but the bar for rate cuts just got higher,” Oren Klachkin, an economist at Nationwide, said in a note. 
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.3% probability of no rate change and a 10.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is preparing for a quarterly event known as triple witching, during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. About $6.5 trillion worth of options tied to individual stocks, indexes, and exchange-traded funds are set to expire today, according to an estimate from derivatives analytical firm Asym 500.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y in November, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y. 
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate November Personal Spending to be +0.5% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.4% m/m, compared to October’s figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.6% m/m, respectively.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 74.1 in December, compared to 71.8 in November.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.547%, down -0.50%.

While we have serveral trades to work today, our main focus will be on the SPX. Here's what we currently have. 

This would give us a $2,100 net proift as is if it finishes in ITM. Right now it looks good. Adding  a credit put spread could juice it up to a $4,000 profit. Regardless...the opportunity for us to have a great day is in our hands. We just need to manage it correctly.

As I've mentioned. We have a good shot at a $4,000+ profit day today. Let's see if we can NOT screw it up! LOL. See you all in the trading room!

Welcome back to the post mortem on the FOMC day! It wasn't a good day for Powell. Hawkish sentiment pushed this bull market right into a nice little correction. futures are up as I type but...the damage may be done. Is this going to be a hard stop bounce or are we now in a correction phase? Hard to say yet. My short puts got run over in my scalp and my NDX. See my results below:

Let's take a look at the markets and what yesterdays down move has done. Probably not a surprise that the indicators have flipped to sell mode.

We now have three of the four indices that we trade, down below the 50DMA. This is bearish.

A note from Capital Group. "Remember when the Bee Gees’ "Stayin’ Alive" was the biggest hit on the radio? If so, you were around the last time the Dow Jones Industrial Average had a nine-day losing streak, which was reached Tuesday.
The only exchange-traded fund to track the oldest stock market benchmark, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), fell another 2.6% Wednesday on inflation concerns, extending the longest stretch of consecutive losses for the index since 1978."

I've been talking about the divergence in the market for a long time. Take a look at these.
​Every time the VIX jumped by 50% in a single session, it plunged over the next month. Every. Single. Time. Is this going to be different? Seems like it could be, but we all know the danger of "this time is different."

In the last TWO YEARS, anytime the S&P 500 has had ALL of its stocks below their respective 20 DAY MOVING AVERAGE on this indicator below 10, and we’re at 8 , we have had the bottom of every correction and pullback and it led to SIGNIFICANT rallies, will this time be different? ​

​BREAKING: The S&P 500 falls sharply after the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, but raises inflation forecast. The Fed reduced their outlook from 3 to 2 rate cuts in 2025 and raised inflation expectations from 2.1% to 2.5%. Inflation is back.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.40%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.52% this morning, partially rebounding from yesterday’s dramatic selloff after the Federal Reserve forecast fewer interest rate cuts next year, while investors awaited a raft of U.S. economic data and an earnings report from the world’s largest shoemaker Nike.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11-1 to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, marking its third consecutive rate cut. The central bank stated that while inflation has moved closer to the 2% target, it remains “somewhat elevated,” and labor market conditions have “generally eased.” The Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections showed that officials now anticipate the benchmark rate reaching a range of 3.75% to 4.00% by the end of 2025, implying only two quarter-percentage-point cuts, compared to the four cuts projected in September. “In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks,” the FOMC’s statement said.
At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank would exercise greater caution as it considers further adjustments to the policy rate. He also stated that interest rates continue to “meaningfully” restrain economic activity and that the committee is “on track to continue to cut.”
“Dots are hawkish even relative to what were fairly hawkish expectations going in - it’s taking much longer to get to ‘neutral’ - in fact it doesn’t get there in the forecast horizon,” said Scott Ladner of Horizon Investments. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed sharply lower. Heico (HEI) slumped over -8% after reporting weaker-than-expected FQ4 revenue. Also, mega-cap technology stocks retreated, with Tesla (TSLA) plunging more than -8% and Amazon.com (AMZN) falling over -4%. In addition, General Mills (GIS) slid more than -3% after the Cheerios maker lowered its full-year adjusted EPS forecast. On the bullish side, Jabil Inc. (JBL) climbed over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the electronic circuit manufacturing company posted better-than-expected FQ1 results and raised its full-year guidance. 
Economic data released on Wedensday showed that U.S. housing starts unexpectedly fell -1.8% m/m to 1.289M in November, weaker than expectations of 1.350M. Also, U.S. building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +6.1% m/m to a 9-month high of 1.505M in November, stronger than expectations of 1.430M. In addition, the U.S. Q3 current account deficit was a record -$310.9B, wider than expectations of -$286.0B.
Today, all eyes are on the Commerce Department’s final estimate of gross domestic product, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP growth will stand at +2.8% q/q in the third quarter, compared to the second-quarter figure of +3.0% q/q.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which came in at -5.5 in November. Economists expect the December figure to be 2.9.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be released today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 4.09M in November, compared to 3.96M in October.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported today. Economists estimate this figure will be 229K, down from last week’s 242K.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists expect the November figure to be -0.1% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.4% m/m.
Meanwhile, notable companies like Nike (NKE), FedEx (FDX), Accenture (ACN), Cintas (CTAS), and Darden Restaurants (DRI) are set to report their quarterly results today.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.4% probability of no rate change and an 8.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in January.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.530%, up +0.64%.

We are getting close to the 1HTE options rollout. It will start on Bitcoin and eventually work into SPX/NDX as liquidity builds. It may be live today. I'll be sure to let you know if we can start trading them.
See you all in the trading room.