This year has been a whole lot of nothing. Talk about range bound! 

At some point we know that consolidation WILL lead to expansion and a new trend (bullish or bearish) will take hold. For now, we just trade the chop. One day down...another day up. It's hard to find meaning in the price action. NVDA sold off just as I predicted but not soon enough for my short scalps. The market got hit hard in the morning session but rebounded into the close. Does the red day mean more bearishness or does the bulls fighting back at the close mean we are going to push higher? Right now I favor the downside odds. Here's a look at our day yesterday. It wasn't huge but we finished green and considering I started the scalping day in the hole and the nasty price action, I have to say, I'm pretty darn happy with our day. Here's a look at it. 

We've already got one 0DTE working this morning on Gold. It's nicely profitable already. We've got a working entry on the put side that looks likely to NOT fill. 

Let's take a look at the markets.  As mentioned above, We are going nowhere fast. (Or slow).  We need the SPY to break below 677, I believe, to get some real selling to take hold.

Technicals are bearish to start us off this morning. 

We finished up another excellent training session yesterday on the book "First loser wins". Next week should be some more really great training. Be sure to tune in on Monday , Weds. and Thrus. live zoom sessions for those.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.41% this morning as investors continue to trim exposure to risky assets at the end of a volatile month.
The price of WTI crude rose over +2% as investors remained wary of potential supply risks in the Middle East, even after positive signals from nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran on Thursday. Negotiations between the two countries will resume next week.
Investors are now turning their attention to crucial U.S. producer inflation data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Chip stocks sank, weighed down by a more than -5% drop in Nvidia (NVDA) after the chipmaker’s stronger-than-expected Q4 results and Q1 guidance failed to reassure investors seeking clarity on AI. Also, Universal Health Services (UHS) tumbled over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q4 results. In addition, The Trade Desk (TTD) slid more than -4% after the advertising technology company provided below-consensus Q1 revenue guidance. On the bullish side, software stocks climbed, with Atlassian (TEAM) rising over +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Datadog (DDOG) advancing more than +5%.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +4K to 212K, compared with the 217K expected. The report indicated that layoffs remain relatively low.
Meanwhile, UBS said on Friday that it had lowered its recommended allocation to U.S. equities to Neutral. Strategists Andrew Garthwaite and Marc El Koussa pointed to factors such as the relatively lower sensitivity of U.S. corporate earnings to global growth, elevated valuations, a trend of funds diversifying away from the U.S., and downside risks to the dollar.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The PPI will provide further insight into the outlook for inflation. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. January PPI will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.5% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect January figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y, compared to +0.7% m/m and +3.3% y/y in December.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today. Economists forecast the February figure at 52.0, compared to the previous value of 54.0.
The U.S. Construction Spending report for December will be released today as well. The report was originally scheduled for release on February 2nd, but was delayed due to the fallout from the longest-ever government shutdown. Notably, the release will also incorporate the November figures. Economists expect construction spending to rise +0.2% m/m in December.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 96.1% chance of no rate change and a 3.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next month’s monetary policy meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.989%, down -0.70%.

The IWM is the only index that's having any strength so far this year. It continues to be a primary focus for us in our ATM portfolio. 

​The Hindenburg Omen, an indicator that correctly detected the 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes, has been triggered for the 5th time over the last month

We are entering a "risk off" environment. 

PPI is out. Higher than forecast. Does that change the probability of rate cuts?

See you all in the live trading room shortly! Let's finish the day and week green!

More Iranian discussions ongoing today. Trump has extended the timeframe out to next week before deciding on military action. Will they achieve a resolution today? I highly doubt it. Keep this is your back pocket. We know the knee jerk reaction and subsequent buying that happens when these military events occur. We had two big earnings reports yesterday. NVDA and CRM. Pre market this morning they both appear to be playing out as we thought yesterday. NVDA is flat and CRM is down. Not enough movement out of NVDA to really move the futures.

We had a good training session yesterday on sizing for zero and that's exactly how our 0DTE played out. Fortunately our Gold 0DTE worked out better than expected and allowed us a slight positive on our day trades. Unfortunately I went big on my scalping with three contracts and of course, that seems to be the days that I'm on the wrong side of the market. It took away all my scalping profits from the last two months. We'll be back at it today (with a smaller position size). 
​Here's a look at my day:

We have an initial structure of our 0DTE for today already working. We'll continue to build this out today but so far here's what we have. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.05%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.09% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as investors digest earnings from AI bellwether Nvidia, while nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran have begun.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose about +0.6% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted stronger-than-expected Q4 results and provided Q1 revenue guidance that smashed Wall Street expectations. However, investors delivered a muted response to the chip giant’s results as doubts lingered over whether strong AI sales can be sustained.
Investor attention is now squarely on a third round of high-stakes nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran in Geneva. The semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported that the two sides are holding negotiations through mediator Oman at its embassy in Geneva. U.S. President Donald Trump had set a March 1-6 deadline for Tehran to reach an agreement and has threatened military strikes if it does not comply.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the green. Axon Enterprise (AXON) jumped over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the maker of Taser stun guns reported upbeat Q4 results and provided strong FY26 revenue growth guidance. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks rallied after Bitcoin climbed more than +7%, with Coinbase Global (COIN) surging over +13% and Strategy (MSTR) gaining more than +8%. In addition, software stocks advanced, with Thomson Reuters (TRI) climbing over +10% and Intuit (INTU) rising more than +6%. On the bearish side, GoDaddy (GDDY) plunged over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the domain registrar and web hosting company issued below-consensus FY26 revenue guidance.
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid on Wednesday repeated his concerns about inflation but stopped short of outlining how monetary policy should respond. “I think we have work to do on the inflation side of things,” Schmid said. “I think we’re in a pretty good place for employment,” he added. Also, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he believes the current U.S. policy rate setting appropriately balances prevailing economic risks.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.0% probability of no rate change and a 2.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
In tariff news, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday that President Trump will sign a directive in the coming days raising his global tariff to 15% “where appropriate” and is seeking “continuity” with countries that have reached trade deals.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 217K, compared to last week’s number of 206K.
Also, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is set to testify today before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs at a hearing titled “Update from the Prudential Regulators.”
On the earnings front, high-profile companies such as Intuit (INTU), Monster Beverage (MNST), Dell Technologies (DELL), Vistra (VST), and CoreWeave (CRWV) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.047%, down -0.05%.

Let's take a look at the markets this morning. 
​Bullish technicals after yesterdays big push up. 

Gap up and strong bullish day yesterday. It puts most of the key indices back to key levels. Can bulls continue to push today? 

Our /ES 0DTE this morning currently is showing $25 risk for a potential $475 profit. That's a good starting point for today. Let's see what we can do to continue working it today. I'll see you all shortly in the live trading room. 

NVDA reports it's earnings today after the close. It's likely to be a market moving event. We are looking at it as a possible trigger to either get a 1DTE /ES entry started for tomorrow or a Theta fairy entry so stay with us after the close to get that trade started. We had another strong day yesterday with everything we touched making money. Our ROI was double digits which is a home run day for us. Here's a look at the results. 

Let's take a look at the markets. 
Yesterday continued the theme of back and forth. Nearly two months into the new year and markets have essentially gone nowhere. 

Futures are green this morning after Trumps state of the Union address. We have bullish bias to start the trading session. 

​March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are trending up +0.17% this morning as investors look ahead to an earnings report from chip giant Nvidia, whose results have become a barometer for the AI trade.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher. Software stocks advanced, led by a more than +11% surge in Thomson Reuters (TRI) after the company said its legal-and-compliance platform, CoCounsel, has topped 1 million users. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed more than +8% to lead chipmakers higher after Meta Platforms said it will deploy 6 gigawatts of data center capacity powered by the company’s processors. In addition, Keysight Technologies (KEYS) jumped over +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the electronics test equipment manufacturer posted upbeat FQ1 results and provided strong FQ2 guidance. On the bearish side, Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD) slumped more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q4 operating income.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 91.2 in February, stronger than expectations of 87.4. At the same time, the U.S. December S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. rose +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +1.3% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index fell to -10 in February, weaker than expectations of -8.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday that additional rate cuts hinge on progress in bringing down inflation. He also said the tariffs ruling “could bring relief to the inflation side” of the Fed’s mandate. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said inflation has “stalled out” over the past 12 to 18 months at a level that remains “unacceptably” above the Fed’s 2% target. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, “I think that it’s quite likely that it will be appropriate to hold the current range for some time. After 175 basis points of easing over the past year and a half, we are at mildly restrictive, perhaps quite close to neutral already.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.0% chance of no rate change and a 2.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March. Investors currently do not anticipate a rate cut until at least midyear.
Meanwhile, President Trump, in his address to Congress, reaffirmed his commitment to tariffs but did not announce any new policies. The president voiced confidence that foreign countries would honor their trade agreements and even predicted that the U.S. would generate so much revenue that it could “substantially replace the modern day system of income tax.”
Investors are keenly awaiting Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close. Wall Street analysts and investors are bullish heading into the report, expecting the chipmaker to beat expectations and deliver strong guidance for the current quarter. The report will come after a period of muted share performance, as investors rotated out of megacap stocks.
“We see no reason for Nvidia not to report a good quarter, at least maintaining the current trajectory of 50%+ growth,” said Gil Luria at D.A. Davidson. “Its main customers, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have maintained or increased significant capex growth guidance for this year that easily supports this trajectory.”
Retailers such as The TJX Companies (TJX) and Lowe’s (LOW), along with prominent companies like Salesforce (CRM), Synopsys (SNPS), Snowflake (SNOW), and Zoom Communications (ZM), are also set to report their quarterly figures today.
Market participants will also hear perspectives from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem throughout the day.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 1.8 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -9.0 million barrels.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.052%, up +0.47%.

​SPX remains near recent highs, while MACD breadth reflects a moderate level of participation. The number of stocks registering fresh MACD buy signals has been moving sideways rather than expanding, indicating stable but not accelerating internal momentum.
Current breadth readings sit below prior expansion peaks, suggesting participation has neither broadened significantly nor deteriorated materially in recent sessions. Price continues to trade within its elevated structure while momentum indicators reflect consolidation rather than extension.
This configuration highlights a period of internal stabilization within an otherwise firm price environment.

NVDA will become the focus after the close today. Let's take a look at some numbers. I.V. is 96.87% which is high but not necessarily for an earnings event. Expected move is between 205-182.5. 

That's a pretty tight range based on past moves. Premium skew is to the downside. The stock has been range bound between 105 and 180 going back to late last year. 

What am I anticipating? NVDA's numbers should be stellar, once again. Margins are great and they are selling everything they can make and their making it as fast as they can. It's not really complicated. The question is how the stock will react. I think we will, once again, get a buy the rumor, sell the news event. There is a repricing of the AI trade. NVDA's stock reaction will be an ratification of that. It's not an expensive stock with a PEG ratio below .50

Regardless of the move, it should create some entry opportunities for us this afternoon. Stay tuned.

Let's take a look at our intraday /ES levels for our 0DTE entries today. I should mention, we got a fill on our Gold entry late yesterday. That (now) 0DTE is profitable. I want to lock in that profit as soon as possible this morning.
6930, 6951, 6968 are resistance levels with 6917, 6901, 6885, 6875 working as support levels. 

We are already starting today with some working trades. We have a short scalp on. Our Gold trade is profitable. We'll see what we can do with 1HTE's on BTC this morning. Price action is a bit harder today. See you all soon in the live trading room. Let's make some money!

I had a losing /ES 0DTE trade yesterday, and that also compounded the fact that I didn't get much else working. The trade was close, but that's how it goes sometimes. Not to take defeat lightly, I set up the laptop. Got the wife and dogs on the couch, and we traded BTC with the 1HTE setups while watching Netflix before going to bed. That was enough to get us green on the day. Don't say I never go the extra mile to give us the best shot at profits that I can! Hopefully today's "work day" is a bit shorter. 
​Here's a look at the day's results. 

Let's take a look at the markets. 
​We essentially continue to go nowhere. Weakness in AI stocks continues to weigh on the QQQ's. 

Technicals aren't great going into this mornings session. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.04%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.21% this morning as sentiment remains cautious following yesterday’s selloff on Wall Street triggered by concerns over the disruptive impact of AI.
Investors are awaiting U.S. President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, a new round of U.S. economic data, and comments from Federal Reserve officials.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the red. International Business Machines (IBM) plunged over -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Dow after AI startup Anthropic said its Claude Code tool could be deployed to modernize a programming language used on IBM systems. Also, shares of big banks and other financial services firms slumped after a report from Citrini Research ignited fresh concerns about the economic fallout from AI, with Capital One Financial (COF) sliding more than -8% and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) dropping over -4%. In addition, software stocks sank, with Datadog (DDOG) tumbling more than -11% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Atlassian (TEAM) plunging over -9%. On the bullish side, PayPal Holdings (PYPL) climbed more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the company was attracting takeover interest from potential buyers.
“The AI disruption story probably hasn’t run its course yet,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. factory orders fell -0.7% m/m in December, weaker than expectations of -0.4% m/m.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that his decision on whether to back an interest rate cut at the central bank’s March meeting will depend on upcoming labor-market data. “If these data support the idea of an improvement in the labor market in January that continued in February, along with additional progress toward 2% inflation, that could result in my outlook turning a bit more positive and my view of appropriate monetary policy may tilt toward a pause at our upcoming meeting,” Waller said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.9% probability of no rate change and a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s new 10% global tariffs took effect on Tuesday. An official directive has not yet been issued to implement the 15% levies Trump threatened over the weekend. The White House is preparing a formal order to raise the global tariff rate to 15%, according to an administration official.
Today, market participants will closely watch President Trump’s annual State of the Union address for signals on trade and other policy priorities ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 87.4, compared to last month’s figure of 84.5.
The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will also be reported today. Economists expect the December figure to ease to +1.3% y/y from +1.4% y/y in November.
The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at -8 in February, compared to the previous value of -6.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the final December figure will be unrevised at +0.2% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, along with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
On the earnings front, home improvement chain Home Depot (HD), as well as notable companies like Constellation Energy (CEG), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Workday (WDAY), and HP Inc. (HPQ), are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.033%, up +0.17%.

​uesday

• US Fed Golsbee Speech 08:00 AM EST
• US ADP Employment Change Weekly 08:15 AM EST
• US Redbook YoY FEB/21 08:55 AM EST
• US Fed Bostic Speech 09:00 AM EST
• US Fed Collins Speech 09:00 AM EST
• US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY DEC 09:00 AM EST
• US House Price Index DEC 09:00 AM EST
• US House Price Index MoM DEC 09:00 AM EST
• US House Price Index YoY DEC 09:00 AM EST
• US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price MoM DEC 09:00 AM EST
• US Fed Waller Speech 09:15 AM EST
• US Fed Cook Speech 09:30 AM EST
• US CB Consumer Confidence FEB 10:00 AM EST
• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index FEB 10:00 AM EST
• US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index FEB 10:00 AM EST
• US Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index FEB 10:00 AM EST
• US Wholesale Inventories MoM DEC 10:00 AM EST
• US Dallas Fed Services Index FEB 10:30 AM EST
• US Dallas Fed Services Revenues Index FEB 10:30 AM EST
• US 2-Year Note Auction 01:00 PM EST
• US Money Supply JAN 01:00 PM EST
• US Fed Barkin Speech 03:15 PM EST
• US Fed Collins Speech 03:15 PM EST
• US API Crude Oil Stock Change FEB/20 04:30 PM EST
• US President Trump State of the Union Speech 09:00 PM EST

Alright traders! Let's get some green again today but try to cut our work load down! See you shortly. 

Welcome back to a new trading week! Let's see..what's going on? Iran and the U.S. are close to a deal (or close to war). Mexico is at war with the cartel. Tariffs rescinded (oh, never mind, they are back on!) New York is now a communist state.
Bottom line, it's a crazy, uncertain time, which is great for trading! We had a really solid trading day last Friday. Here's a look at our results. 

Let's take a look at the markets. All the indices held their ground on Friday. It could have really solidified a bearish trend had they not. 

We've got a straight neutral reading this morning on technicals. There's a lot of headline news to digest. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.48%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.65% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as heightened uncertainty about U.S. trade policy dampened sentiment.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday said he would raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%, a day after the Supreme Court struck down his “reciprocal” tariffs. “I, as President of the United States of America, will be, effective immediately, raising the 10% Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been “ripping” the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came along!), to the fully allowed, and legally tested, 15% level,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. Notably, the 15% global tariffs are imposed under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act and are permitted to remain in effect for 150 days. Mr. Trump also cautioned that additional tariffs would follow. Uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is adding another layer of complexity to markets already unsettled by concerns over AI disruption and U.S.-Iran tensions.
Investor focus this week is on an earnings report from chip giant Nvidia, whose results have become a barometer for the AI trade, a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed higher. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Alphabet (GOOGL) climbing over +4% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Amazon.com (AMZN) rising more than +2% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Lam Research (LRCX) rising over +3% and Analog Devices (ADI) advancing more than +2%. In addition, Corning (GLW) surged over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after UBS raised its price target on the stock to $160 from $125. On the bearish side, cybersecurity software stocks sank after Anthropic PBC rolled out a new security feature in its Claude AI model, with Cloudflare (NET) slumping more than -8%, and CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) sliding over -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Friday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, rose +0.4% m/m and +3.0% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Also, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its initial estimate of Q4 GDP growth, said the economy grew at a +1.4% annualized rate, weaker than expectations of +2.8%. In addition, U.S. December personal spending rose +0.4% m/m, in line with expectations, and personal income grew +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. Finally, the University of Michigan’s U.S. February consumer sentiment index was revised lower to 56.6, weaker than expectations of 56.9.
Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, said the core PCE report underscores the uneven nature of the inflation battle. “It’s not the direction that investors or the Fed want to see,” he said, pointing out that core PCE has now increased for three straight months. Separately, Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, described the combination of softer growth and firmer inflation as “unwelcome.”
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Friday that it is prudent to keep rates “mildly restrictive” to bring inflation back to the 2% level and that current Fed policy is 25-50 basis points above neutral. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she was “cautiously optimistic” that the current monetary policy stance indicates “we’re on a path for inflation to come back down toward our target.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.9% chance of no rate change and a 4.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
All eyes will be on Nvidia (NVDA) this week, as the semiconductor giant prepares to report its fourth-quarter and fiscal-year results on Wednesday. Investors anticipate that the company will beat Wall Street’s expectations and provide strong guidance for the current quarter. However, analysts said there may be little the company can do or say to meaningfully lift its shares amid growing skepticism about AI at the moment. Retailers such as Home Depot (HD), The TJX Companies (TJX), and Lowe’s (LOW), along with notable companies like Salesforce (CRM), Intuit (INTU), Dell Technologies (DELL), and CoreWeave (CRWV), are also set to release their quarterly results this week.
Market watchers will also keep a close eye on several U.S. economic data releases this week amid uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s next interest rate cut. The U.S. Producer Price Index for January will be the main highlight, providing further insight into the outlook for inflation. Other noteworthy data releases include the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Construction Spending, and the Chicago PMI.
In addition, market participants will parse comments from a slew of Fed officials. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Lisa Cook, along with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, are scheduled to speak this week.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s annual State of the Union address on Tuesday will also attract attention. Investors will monitor the address for signals on trade and other policy priorities ahead of this year’s midterm elections.
“Tomorrow’s State of the Union will likely define how far Trump wants to go with the tariff rhetoric,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Factory Orders data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to drop -0.4% m/m in December, following a +2.7% m/m jump in November.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.077%, down -0.29%.

​SPY ended the week higher at 689.43 (+1.13%), finishing right where it opened the prior week. Despite the choppy price action, there was still opportunity for intraday traders using the new ORB tools. With tariff headlines hitting on Friday, 5-minute ORB traders were able to capture a 3R move as SPY rallied 5 points following the opening range breakout.

​Small caps lagged last week, with IWM closing at $264.61 (+0.63%). While the ETF has steadily outperformed large caps in 2026, momentum paused over the past week. Despite that consolidation, the 5-minute opening range breakout strategy delivered, allowing traders to capture a 3R move in less than 10 minutes.

Expected move for the week on SPX is 1.48%. Decent enough and that should give us some premium to work with.

​SPX remains near recent highs, while short-term RSI breadth measures have moderated. The number of stocks with 5-day and 14-day RSI readings above 70 has declined from recent peaks, and the count of names trading above their upper Bollinger Bands has also eased.
This configuration reflects elevated index levels alongside cooling short-term momentum participation. Breadth readings are no longer expanding and have shifted toward mid-range levels relative to recent extremes.
At present, price stability coexists with a reduction in overbought breadth conditions, indicating a transition from expansionary momentum to a more balanced internal structure.

​QQQ’s ATM term structure shows a relatively stable and gently upward-sloping curve, with front-end implied volatility cooling compared to five days ago while longer-dated vols remain anchored near the low 20% area. This suggests near-term event premium has faded somewhat, but the market still prices steady medium-term uncertainty.
On the smile, downside strikes remain bid with a pronounced put skew, while upside calls are comparatively flatter, indicating continued demand for protection over speculative upside.
Overall, q-option positioning reflects a market that is less panicked than earlier in the week but still defensively tilted, with downside hedges carrying richer implied volatility than at-the-money or upside strikes.

Let's have a strong start to the week! Scalping could be good today. I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly!
​

I have to say, I probably have as many losing trades as the next guy but one thing I stand on is that I rarely if ever, trade scared. I've always been surprised at how many people do. BTW, we just finished up part three of an excellent training on systems and risk management yesterday. If you haven't watched the video and downloaded the power point I'd highly recommend it. Anyways...I was trading a bit scared yesterday morning. We had a rolled gold trade on and I was worried about Iran and the possibility of bombs dropping. In hindsight, even though we were able to pull a small profit, it wasn't a great setup. Control what you can and let the rest sort itself out.

That trade took most of my focus and price action was "yucky" all day so we didn't get much working. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
​Did you gain any insight about future direction from yesterdays market? Yeah...me neither. 

We start today with a slightly bearish lean. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending down -0.21% this morning as investors assess the potential impact of conflict in the Middle East and await a raft of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP.
The U.S. military is deploying a wide range of forces in the Middle East, including two aircraft carriers, fighter jets, and refueling tankers. U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran had no more than 15 days to strike a deal over its nuclear program or “really bad things” would happen. The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering an initial limited strike on military or government sites in Iran to pressure it into meeting his demands for a nuclear deal.
Market participants are also bracing for a potential Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. EPAM Systems (EPAM) tumbled over -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the software design company issued soft FY26 revenue growth guidance. Also, chip stocks slid, with Microchip Technology (MCHP) and Texas Instruments (TXN) dropping more than -2%. In addition, Booking Holdings (BKNG) slumped more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS. On the bullish side, Omnicom Group (OMC) jumped over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the marketing conglomerate reported better-than-expected Q4 revenue.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -23K to 206K, compared with the 223K expected. Also, the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to a 5-month high of 16.3 in February, stronger than expectations of 7.5. At the same time, the U.S. December trade deficit widened to -$70.3 billion, weaker than expectations of -$55.5 billion. In addition, U.S. pending home sales unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +1.4% m/m.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday that interest rates are currently probably near “neutral”—the level where they neither restrain nor stimulate the economy. Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that monetary policy is “in a good place.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.0% probability of no rate change and a 6.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y in December, compared to +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y in November.
The U.S. Commerce Department’s advance estimate of fourth-quarter gross domestic product will also be closely monitored today. Economists forecast that U.S. economic growth slowed to a still-solid 2.8% annualized pace after expanding in the previous quarter at the fastest rate in two years.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be released today. Economists expect December Personal Spending to rise +0.4% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.3% m/m, compared to the November figures of +0.5% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.
Preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys will come in today. Economists expect the February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 52.4 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 53.0, compared to the previous values of 52.4 and 52.7, respectively.
U.S. New Home Sales data for December will be reported today. Notably, the release will also incorporate the November figures. Economists expect December’s new home sales to be 732K.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the final February figure will be revised lower to 56.9 from the preliminary reading of 57.3.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.070%, down -0.17%.

With PCE and a potential ruling on Tariffs I'll wait until those are know before working a 0DTE today. 

Let's take a look at the markets to get us started this morning. 
Intraday levels are 6877, 6885, 6875, 6900 as resistance with 6870, 6860, 6851, 6838 working as support levels.

Looking at the bigger picture on the daily chart with the VTI we have NO signal. Our technicals look like they want to turn bullish but haven't...yet. Price action is muted and still below the 20/50DMA. We need some more movement to get a trend going. 

With PCE, Two FED speakers and a potential ruling on tariffs this morning we'll wait a bit to get our first 0DTE started. See you all in the live trading room shortly. 

Good morning traders! Yesterday was a bit of a technical challenge for me. Our power was knocked out late in the evening so I lacked my screens and signals and was just trading off my laptop battery and tethered mobile phone for most of the day. We were still able to get some trades done so all in all, I'm pretty happy the day wasn't a waste. We did roll our gold calls up and out to today so that will be our primary focus this morning. Here's a look at our truncated day yesterday. 

The next few days in the market could get interesting. Depending on who you listen to, the US and Iran are either close to a breakthrough agreement or...ready to go to war. Negotiations are ongoing and most media reports show progress however there is a massive build up of weaponry going on from the US, right on Iran's doorstep.
Combine this with the potential (Just potential at this point) for a supreme court ruling this Friday on tariffs. 
I'm keeping some powder dry going into the weekend.

Let's take a look at the markets. 
​We've had a couple green days in a row. Is it meaningful? Does it tell us anything? I don't think so. We are still in a "Lower lows and lower highs" trend. Markets gone no where this year with the QQQ's actually down. That could (should?) change soon. 

The technicals this morning are a bit bearish with futures pointed down, as I type. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.32%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.36% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as worries about a potential conflict between the U.S. and Iran dampened sentiment.
Investors remain on edge about the prospect of U.S. military intervention in Iran, even as talks on Tehran’s nuclear program in Geneva showed signs of progress. The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the U.S. has assembled its largest air power presence in the Middle East since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and is in a position to strike Iran. The head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog warned on Thursday that the window for a diplomatic deal on Iran’s atomic program is closing. The price of WTI crude rose above $66 a barrel.
Also adding to the negative sentiment on Thursday was renewed caution about the outlook for AI. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks edged lower in pre-market trading.
Investors now await a new round of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from retail giant Walmart.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher. Global Payments (GPN) surged over +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the financial software provider issued above-consensus FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, most chip stocks advanced, with Micron Technology (MU) rising more than +5% and Applied Materials (AMAT) gaining over +2%. In addition, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) rose more than +1% after Mizuho upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral. On the bearish side, Palo Alto Networks (PANW) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the cybersecurity firm cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders fell -1.4% m/m in December, stronger than expectations of -1.8% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, climbed +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Also, U.S. December housing starts rose +6.2% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.404 million, stronger than expectations of 1.310 million, and building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.3% m/m to a 9-month high of 1.448 million, stronger than expectations of 1.400 million. In addition, U.S. industrial production rose +0.7% m/m in January, stronger than expectations of +0.4% m/m.
“In the context of a data-dependent Committee, the incoming economic data justified last month’s pause on the journey to neutral,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets. “The open question is: how high is the bar to resume rate cuts?”
Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s January 27-28 meeting, released on Wednesday, showed that “several” policymakers suggested the central bank may have to raise rates if inflation remains above their target. “Several participants indicated that they would have supported a two-sided description of the committee’s future interest-rate decisions, reflecting the possibility that upward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate could be appropriate if inflation remains at above-target levels,” according to the FOMC minutes. The minutes also showed that a “vast majority of participants judged that downside risks to employment had moderated in recent months while the risk of more persistent inflation remained.” Several officials saw scope for additional rate cuts if inflation eased as anticipated, though most said progress on inflation could be slower than generally forecast.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.1% chance of no rate change and a 5.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 223K, compared to last week’s number of 227K.
The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be closely watched today. Economists anticipate that the Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 7.5 in February, compared to last month’s value of 12.6.
U.S. Trade Balance data will be released today. Economists forecast that the trade deficit will narrow to -$55.5 billion in December from -$56.8 billion in November.
The National Association of Realtors’ pending home sales data will be reported today. Economists expect the January figure to rise +1.4% m/m following a -9.3% m/m drop in December.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will come in today. Economists expect the December figure to drop -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.3% m/m.
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 1.7 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 8.5 million barrels.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
On the earnings front, notable companies such as Walmart (WMT), Deere & Company (DE), Newmont (NEM), and Copart (CPRT) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.094%, up +0.34%.

See you all in the live trading room shortly! 

Welcome back to another holiday shortened trading week. The theme in the market continues to be the sector rotation caused by the AI revaluation. Matthew Tuttle did an excellent overview of the Goldman Sachs pairs trade. I'll post that here:
​Goldman’s desk introduced a Software Pair Trade:

• Long basket: “AI-proof” + “AI beneficiaries”
  The kind of software you can’t realistically displace because it’s tied to:
  
  • physical execution
    
  • regulatory entrenchment
    
  • deep integration complexity
    
  • human accountability
    …plus the obvious “AI plumbing” layer (compute, data infra, observability, security, hyperscale cloud, AI dev platforms).
    
• Short basket: “AI-exposed workflows”
  Software-tilted workflows that AI can increasingly:
  
  • automate end-to-end
    
  • rebuild internally (inside the enterprise)
    
  • reduce the need for outsourced labor / outsourced workflows
    

Goldman’s key point: the long basket’s growth expectations have materially improved since 2023, while the “AI-exposed” bucket is closer to stagnation. That’s the whole trade: separate the AI winners from the AI casualties… inside software itself.

Our Take: This Is the “Software Civil War”
Here’s the cleanest way to think about it:

Two types of software exist now:

1) AI Tollbooths (the winners)
These businesses sit in the path of AI traffic.

When AI adoption rises, they don’t lose seats… they gain:

• more traffic
  
• more data
  
• more complexity
  
• more security risk
  
• more need for observability, compliance, and orchestration
  

AI doesn’t replace them. AI makes them necessary.

2) AI-Replaceables (the losers)
These companies sell software that is basically:

• a UI on top of a repeatable workflow
  
• a middle layer between you and the result
  
• a “human-in-the-loop” process that agents are designed to remove
  

When agents get good enough, these products don’t always die… but they often get:

• priced like commodities
  
• bundled into platforms
  
• pressured on seat counts and pricing power
  

Winners and Losers Watchlist (Symbols)
Important: Goldman isn’t publishing basket constituents publicly anymore, so the lists below are our translation of the framework into actionable tickers (not “Goldman’s official basket members”). I’m a client of Goldman so I could get the basket if I wanted it, but then I couldn’t write about it, and that’s no fun.

 Winners: “AI Tollbooths” to Own / Overweight
Edge + Security + Trust (AI traffic creates more attack surface):

• NET – edge network + security + dev platform optionality
  
• CRWD – endpoint + identity + threat intel flywheel
  
• PANW – platform consolidation + security spend priority
  
• ZS – zero trust as the enterprise perimeter dissolves
  

Observability (agents create chaos; someone must measure reality):

• DDOG – telemetry + AI monitoring = structural tailwind
  
• DT – large-enterprise observability execution (more defensive flavor)
  

Data + Database Gravity (hard to rip out; harder to replicate):

• ORCL – database + cloud infra + enterprise embed
  
• SNOW – data platform + governance (higher beta / execution sensitive)
  
• MDB – developer data layer (also higher beta)
  

“High-consequence” software (compliance + accountability):

• FTNT – security consolidation at scale
  
• AKAM – edge security/compute with less hype, more durability
  
• NOW – if you believe agents increase orchestration needs (debated, but fits the “workflow control plane” angle)
  

 Losers: “AI-Replaceables” to Short / Avoid / Underweight
Seat-based workflow apps with weak data gravity (risk of “feature-ization”):

• DOCU – signatures become embedded workflow, not a standalone premium
  
• BOX – storage is a feature; differentiation gets harder
  
• ASAN / SMAR – task/project layers face agentic compression risk
  
• MNDY – same category risk (work management gets abstracted)
  

Marketplaces / outsourcing exposure (if AI reduces labor-hours demand):

• UPWK – risk if “hire an agent” replaces “hire a freelancer”
  
• FVRR – similar dynamic
  

IT services / outsourcing (if enterprises internalize work via agents):

• EPAM – high quality operator, but category faces “build vs buy” shift
  
• GLOB – similar
  
• INFY / WIT – broad exposure to automation headwinds (with caveats)
  

There's a lot to process there, but these types of pairs trades are my favorite.

We had an excellent result from our trading last Friday. It was one of the best daily ROI's we've ever had. It was an excellent use of capital. Here's a look at our results. 

​

Let's take a look at the markets:
Thursday was a bit of a blood bath, and we wanted to see if bulls would show up on Friday. They tried but couldn't really break the trend. 
​We continue to sell strangles on the RUT. It's been a solid producer for us in the ATM portfolio. ​

Technicals continue to lean to the sell side this morning. 

A 1.49% expected move the this shortened week isn't bad. We could have  some movement this week! Let's hope it's to the downside. LOL 

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.40%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.85% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street after the long weekend as concerns around AI continue to weigh on sentiment.
Investors remain concerned about companies’ swelling AI budgets as well as the technology’s potential to disrupt industries beyond the tech sector. There is “lingering anxiety about whether AI spending will be profitable enough, concerns about competition, and a broader de-risking from the most crowded trades after a very strong run,” according to Aneeka Gupta at WisdomTree.
Investor focus this week is on a flurry of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the PCE inflation reading and the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Software stocks climbed, with CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) rising over +4% and ServiceNow (NOW) gaining more than +3%. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks popped after the price of Bitcoin rose more than +4%, with Coinbase Global (COIN) jumping over +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Strategy (MSTR) surging more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) advanced over +8% after the largest U.S. supplier of chipmaking gear posted better-than-expected FQ1 results and issued surprisingly strong FQ2 guidance. On the bearish side, Constellation Brands (STZ) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the alcoholic beverage company said Nicholas Fink would succeed Bill Newlands as CEO.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Friday showed that consumer prices rose +0.2% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the smallest gain since July. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to +2.4% in January from +2.7% in December, weaker than expectations of +2.5%. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y in January, in line with expectations.
“For the Fed, [the CPI report] probably doesn’t change much in the near term,” said James McCann at Edward Jones. “We do see scope for further easing later this year. However, this is contingent on a more convincing decline in inflation towards target with the urgency for additional cuts lower now that downside risks in the labor market have seemingly eased.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the central bank could lower interest rates further if inflation is on course to hit its 2% target, but that is not currently the case. “Right now, we are not on a path back to 2%. We’re kind of stuck at 3%, and that’s not acceptable,” Goolsbee said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.2% chance of no rate change and a 7.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
In this holiday-shortened week, the December reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight, as investors continue to gauge the timing of the next interest rate cut. The advance estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter will also be closely watched, encompassing a period that included the longest-ever federal government shutdown. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), the S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), New Home Sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
Market participants will also be monitoring the Fed’s minutes from the January 27-28 meeting, set for release on Wednesday, to assess the debate between officials who support keeping rates steady and those who advocate for rate cuts. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged last month following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. “The January minutes will likely detail the arguments that support a wait-and-see approach versus those that could support rate cuts, consistent with the different viewpoints expressed by various FOMC policymakers since the meeting,” according to HSBC analysts.
In addition, market watchers will scrutinize remarks from a host of Fed officials. Fed Governor Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak this week.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Walmart (WMT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Deere & Company (DE), and Constellation Energy (CEG).
Meanwhile, quarterly 13F filings detailing the holdings and transactions of Berkshire Hathaway and other major investors are set to begin appearing this week, shedding light on fourth-quarter portfolio changes.
Today, investors will focus on the New York Fed-compiled Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the February figure to come in at 6.4, compared to 7.7 in January.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.028%, down -0.59%.

​SPY ended the week in the red at $681.75 (-1.28%), as its weekly Bollinger Band Width approaches its lowest level seen in nearly a year, indicating tightening price action. Despite persistent weakness in tech, price continues to find support at the middle band, suggesting the broader trend remains intact for now. With a multi-month squeeze in play, traders are watching closely to see which direction the compression ultimately resolves.

​Tech remained under pressure last week, with QQQ closing at $601.92 (-1.27%). A weekly TTM Squeeze has been in play since November, marking the first such signal since the setup that preceded the early 2025 bear market. With NVDA accounting for nearly 9% of the index and set to report earnings at the end of February, its results could be the primary catalyst that determines where price moves next.

​Small caps showed relative strength last week, with IWM closing down slightly at $262.96 (-0.78%). Its Bollinger Band Width is expanding rather than compressing, as the index pushes higher and builds on its ~6% year-to-date gain. With price continuing to test the upper Bollinger Band, traders are watching closely to see whether this leadership can persist or begin to fade.

We are already off to a fast start today with 1HTE's on Bitcoin already working and a 0DTE on the /ES that has a wonderful R/R ratio. Here's a look at our initial setup. We'll look to build around this as our foundation for today. 

I know we talk about this all the time but as some point this will become a factor.

Let's take a look at the intraday levels for our 0DTE entries.  I have two main support/resistance levels that are particularly important for our 0DTE today. 6852 and 6880 are resistance with 6808 and 6777 working as support levels. 6777 is key for us today as that's close to our short put leg on our /ES 0DTE. 

I'll see you all shortly in the live trading room and scalping feed! 

I'm not superstitious but...just saying. Do we have a real change of directions starting?  We have talked the last few days about shorting the DIA. Looks like yesterday would have been a good entry for that trade. A tame CPI release could step in to save the bulls but its starting to look a bit weak.

I had a losing day yesterday on my main 0DTE. I couldn't get out fast enough on the initial downward move. I adjusted four times throughout the day but it wasn't enough. Here's a look at my results. 

​Gold fell 3% alongside equities, which is not how a clean risk-off tape behaves. That was deleveraging, not rotation.

WTI crude slipped to $62.74 after the IEA cut its demand forecast and maintained its call for a deep supply glut this year. 

Bitcoin dropped to roughly $65,000, confirming cross-asset deleveraging.

Thursday was the ugliest session of 2026. 

The Dow shed 669 points. The S&P lost 1.57%. The Nasdaq fell 2.03%. 

All seven Mag 7 names closed red. Cisco (CSCO) lost 12%. Apple (AAPL) lost 5%.

Technicals are decidedly bearish before CPI release. 

The "VIX mix" is moving into the risk off zone. 

It would be nice if we could get some real selling pressure. Bear markets are easier for us to find setups in. 

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed down -1.57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -2.04%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -1.55%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -2.02%.
Stock indexes gave up an early advance and sold off sharply on Thursday as the Magnificent Seven technology stocks retreated, weighing on the broader market.  Also, Cisco Systems fell more than -12% after saying that higher memory-chip prices are expected to eat into its profitability.  In addition, trucking and logistics companies fell sharply amid the threat of AI on future earnings.
Lower bond yields were supportive of stocks, as the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 4.10% after weekly jobless claims fell less than expected and Jan existing home sales fell more than expected to a 16-month low. 
US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -5,000 to 227,000, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of 223,000.
US Jan existing home sales fell -8.4% m/m to a 16-month low of 3.91 million, weaker than expectations of 4.5 million.
The markets this week will focus on corporate earnings results and economic news.  On Friday, Jan CPI is expected to be up +2.5% y/y, and Jan core CPI is expected to be up +2.5% y/y.
Q4 earnings season is in full swing, as more than two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 76% of the 358 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 9% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Thursday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a new all-time high and closed down by -0.40%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.05%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a record high and closed down by -0.02%.

Today could be a decent directional day so I'll look initially for a debit setup. See you all shortly!

One of the attributes of our (and most peoples) trades are that you first have to develop a bias or premise. If you aren't bullish, bearish or neutral it's going to be pretty hard to setup a trade. The other attribute we see over and over is that IF you're right, you're usually right (and your trade idea is validated) quickly. If you're still battling your trade and the trading session is almost over, your chances of success diminish.
We've seen this play out every day this week. We haven't really hit any homeruns but everyday has been profitable and maybe more interesting, we've been done in just a few hours. Nobody complains about shortened work days! 
Yesterday was a continuation of this theme for us. Here's a look at our shortened trading session. 

We also have two working trade entries for Gold and /ES If we get these filled we'll be off to the races for todays trades. 

Let's take a look at the markets to start us off today. 
​Technicals continue to be supportive. 

The interest rate sensitive IWM backed off. QQQ remains weak and I'm continuing to look for an entry on a DIA short. 

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.33%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.23% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as strong U.S. jobs data boosted optimism about the nation’s economic outlook.
Investors now await U.S. jobless claims data and a new wave of corporate earnings reports.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed mixed.  Software stocks sank, with Atlassian (TEAM) sliding over -6% and Intuit (INTU) falling more than -5%. Also, real estate services stocks slumped amid concerns that the latest wave of AI applications and tools could disrupt the industry, with Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) tumbling over -13% and CBRE Group (CBRE) plunging more than -12% to lead losers in the S&P 500. In addition, Mattel (MAT) plummeted over -24% after the toymaker posted downbeat results for the crucial holiday quarter and provided disappointing FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. On the bullish side, chip stocks climbed, led by a more than +9% jump in Micron Technology (MU) after CFO Mark Murphy said the company had begun volume production and shipments of its next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips.
The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Wednesday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 130K in January, much stronger than expectations of 66K. Also, the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in January, stronger than expectations of no change at 4.4%. In addition, U.S. January average hourly earnings rose +0.4% m/m and +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y.
President Trump lauded the figures in a social media post on Wednesday and said the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world. “GREAT JOBS NUMBERS, FAR GREATER THAN EXPECTED!” Mr. Trump wrote.
“[Wednesday’s] employment report was a 10 out of 10 with positive surprises across the board,” said Peter Graf at Amova Asset Management Americas. “It should quell recent concerns about growth, but puts incoming Fed Chair Warsh in the hot seat — it will be even harder to persuade the FOMC members to go along with the president’s mandate to cut rates.”
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Wednesday that the central bank should keep rates at a “somewhat restrictive” level, as he voiced continued concerns about inflation remaining too high. “In my view, further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer,” Schmid said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.1% chance of no rate change and a 5.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s tariff policies faced their strongest political setback yet as the Republican-led U.S. House passed legislation aimed at ending the president’s levies on Canadian imports.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 222K, compared to last week’s number of 231K.
The National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales data will also be released today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 4.16 million in January, compared to 4.35 million in December.
On the earnings front, notable companies such as Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), Airbnb (ABNB), and Coinbase Global (COIN) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.168%, down -0.10%.

This market is wound tighter than a $10 dollar banjo at an East Texas wedding! Look, there are two types of market volatility...expanding and contracting. We're wound up pretty tight right now. Expansion ALWAYS follows contraction. At some point well get another directional change but for now, we'll start today with our /ES trade that filled last night.  

This is an incredibly low risk setup which can be built on in many different ways today. Here's an example. 

I'll try to be a bit more patient with our setup today. I jumped the gun a bit yesterday.

​SPX remains near recent highs, while MACD breadth reflects a more measured internal backdrop. The number of stocks registering MACD buy signals has rebounded into the mid-range of its recent distribution but remains below prior expansion peaks seen during stronger participation phases.
The 10-day average of MACD buy signals has turned higher, indicating improvement from recent lows, though breadth levels are not yet extended relative to historical highs. At current levels, price and breadth are no longer deeply oversold nor broadly overheated.
Participation has recovered from prior weakness but remains moderate compared to earlier periods of stronger momentum expansion. This reflects an environment where internal strength has improved, yet remains selective rather than broad-based.

​QQQ’s volatility smile remains well-defined, with elevated implied volatility on the downside relative to at-the-money strikes, signaling persistent demand for put protection.
The front-end of the curve is broadly in line with yesterday but still below levels seen five days ago and one month ago, suggesting some moderation in tail hedging despite the bid for downside skew.
At-the-money IV is hovering in the mid-teens, while deep out-of-the-money puts remain priced at a notable premium, reflecting a cautious tone beneath the surface.
Overall, the curve points to a market that is stable near spot but still willing to pay up for protection against sharper downside moves.