Welcome back to another holiday shortened trading week. The theme in the market continues to be the sector rotation caused by the AI revaluation. Matthew Tuttle did an excellent overview of the Goldman Sachs pairs trade. I'll post that here:
​Goldman’s desk introduced a Software Pair Trade:

• Long basket: “AI-proof” + “AI beneficiaries”
  The kind of software you can’t realistically displace because it’s tied to:
  
  • physical execution
    
  • regulatory entrenchment
    
  • deep integration complexity
    
  • human accountability
    …plus the obvious “AI plumbing” layer (compute, data infra, observability, security, hyperscale cloud, AI dev platforms).
    
• Short basket: “AI-exposed workflows”
  Software-tilted workflows that AI can increasingly:
  
  • automate end-to-end
    
  • rebuild internally (inside the enterprise)
    
  • reduce the need for outsourced labor / outsourced workflows
    

Goldman’s key point: the long basket’s growth expectations have materially improved since 2023, while the “AI-exposed” bucket is closer to stagnation. That’s the whole trade: separate the AI winners from the AI casualties… inside software itself.

Our Take: This Is the “Software Civil War”
Here’s the cleanest way to think about it:

Two types of software exist now:

1) AI Tollbooths (the winners)
These businesses sit in the path of AI traffic.

When AI adoption rises, they don’t lose seats… they gain:

• more traffic
  
• more data
  
• more complexity
  
• more security risk
  
• more need for observability, compliance, and orchestration
  

AI doesn’t replace them. AI makes them necessary.

2) AI-Replaceables (the losers)
These companies sell software that is basically:

• a UI on top of a repeatable workflow
  
• a middle layer between you and the result
  
• a “human-in-the-loop” process that agents are designed to remove
  

When agents get good enough, these products don’t always die… but they often get:

• priced like commodities
  
• bundled into platforms
  
• pressured on seat counts and pricing power
  

Winners and Losers Watchlist (Symbols)
Important: Goldman isn’t publishing basket constituents publicly anymore, so the lists below are our translation of the framework into actionable tickers (not “Goldman’s official basket members”). I’m a client of Goldman so I could get the basket if I wanted it, but then I couldn’t write about it, and that’s no fun.

 Winners: “AI Tollbooths” to Own / Overweight
Edge + Security + Trust (AI traffic creates more attack surface):

• NET – edge network + security + dev platform optionality
  
• CRWD – endpoint + identity + threat intel flywheel
  
• PANW – platform consolidation + security spend priority
  
• ZS – zero trust as the enterprise perimeter dissolves
  

Observability (agents create chaos; someone must measure reality):

• DDOG – telemetry + AI monitoring = structural tailwind
  
• DT – large-enterprise observability execution (more defensive flavor)
  

Data + Database Gravity (hard to rip out; harder to replicate):

• ORCL – database + cloud infra + enterprise embed
  
• SNOW – data platform + governance (higher beta / execution sensitive)
  
• MDB – developer data layer (also higher beta)
  

“High-consequence” software (compliance + accountability):

• FTNT – security consolidation at scale
  
• AKAM – edge security/compute with less hype, more durability
  
• NOW – if you believe agents increase orchestration needs (debated, but fits the “workflow control plane” angle)
  

 Losers: “AI-Replaceables” to Short / Avoid / Underweight
Seat-based workflow apps with weak data gravity (risk of “feature-ization”):

• DOCU – signatures become embedded workflow, not a standalone premium
  
• BOX – storage is a feature; differentiation gets harder
  
• ASAN / SMAR – task/project layers face agentic compression risk
  
• MNDY – same category risk (work management gets abstracted)
  

Marketplaces / outsourcing exposure (if AI reduces labor-hours demand):

• UPWK – risk if “hire an agent” replaces “hire a freelancer”
  
• FVRR – similar dynamic
  

IT services / outsourcing (if enterprises internalize work via agents):

• EPAM – high quality operator, but category faces “build vs buy” shift
  
• GLOB – similar
  
• INFY / WIT – broad exposure to automation headwinds (with caveats)
  

There's a lot to process there, but these types of pairs trades are my favorite.

We had an excellent result from our trading last Friday. It was one of the best daily ROI's we've ever had. It was an excellent use of capital. Here's a look at our results. 

​

Let's take a look at the markets:
Thursday was a bit of a blood bath, and we wanted to see if bulls would show up on Friday. They tried but couldn't really break the trend. 
​We continue to sell strangles on the RUT. It's been a solid producer for us in the ATM portfolio. ​

Technicals continue to lean to the sell side this morning. 

A 1.49% expected move the this shortened week isn't bad. We could have  some movement this week! Let's hope it's to the downside. LOL 

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.40%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.85% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street after the long weekend as concerns around AI continue to weigh on sentiment.
Investors remain concerned about companies’ swelling AI budgets as well as the technology’s potential to disrupt industries beyond the tech sector. There is “lingering anxiety about whether AI spending will be profitable enough, concerns about competition, and a broader de-risking from the most crowded trades after a very strong run,” according to Aneeka Gupta at WisdomTree.
Investor focus this week is on a flurry of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the PCE inflation reading and the advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Software stocks climbed, with CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) rising over +4% and ServiceNow (NOW) gaining more than +3%. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks popped after the price of Bitcoin rose more than +4%, with Coinbase Global (COIN) jumping over +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Strategy (MSTR) surging more than +8% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, Applied Materials (AMAT) advanced over +8% after the largest U.S. supplier of chipmaking gear posted better-than-expected FQ1 results and issued surprisingly strong FQ2 guidance. On the bearish side, Constellation Brands (STZ) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the alcoholic beverage company said Nicholas Fink would succeed Bill Newlands as CEO.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Friday showed that consumer prices rose +0.2% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the smallest gain since July. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to +2.4% in January from +2.7% in December, weaker than expectations of +2.5%. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.3% m/m and +2.5% y/y in January, in line with expectations.
“For the Fed, [the CPI report] probably doesn’t change much in the near term,” said James McCann at Edward Jones. “We do see scope for further easing later this year. However, this is contingent on a more convincing decline in inflation towards target with the urgency for additional cuts lower now that downside risks in the labor market have seemingly eased.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday that the central bank could lower interest rates further if inflation is on course to hit its 2% target, but that is not currently the case. “Right now, we are not on a path back to 2%. We’re kind of stuck at 3%, and that’s not acceptable,” Goolsbee said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.2% chance of no rate change and a 7.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
In this holiday-shortened week, the December reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight, as investors continue to gauge the timing of the next interest rate cut. The advance estimate of U.S. gross domestic product for the fourth quarter will also be closely watched, encompassing a period that included the longest-ever federal government shutdown. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Trade Balance, Pending Home Sales, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, Personal Spending, Personal Income, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), the S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), New Home Sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
Market participants will also be monitoring the Fed’s minutes from the January 27-28 meeting, set for release on Wednesday, to assess the debate between officials who support keeping rates steady and those who advocate for rate cuts. The FOMC left interest rates unchanged last month following three consecutive cuts at the end of 2025. “The January minutes will likely detail the arguments that support a wait-and-see approach versus those that could support rate cuts, consistent with the different viewpoints expressed by various FOMC policymakers since the meeting,” according to HSBC analysts.
In addition, market watchers will scrutinize remarks from a host of Fed officials. Fed Governor Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak this week.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Walmart (WMT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Analog Devices (ADI), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Deere & Company (DE), and Constellation Energy (CEG).
Meanwhile, quarterly 13F filings detailing the holdings and transactions of Berkshire Hathaway and other major investors are set to begin appearing this week, shedding light on fourth-quarter portfolio changes.
Today, investors will focus on the New York Fed-compiled Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the February figure to come in at 6.4, compared to 7.7 in January.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.028%, down -0.59%.

​SPY ended the week in the red at $681.75 (-1.28%), as its weekly Bollinger Band Width approaches its lowest level seen in nearly a year, indicating tightening price action. Despite persistent weakness in tech, price continues to find support at the middle band, suggesting the broader trend remains intact for now. With a multi-month squeeze in play, traders are watching closely to see which direction the compression ultimately resolves.

​Tech remained under pressure last week, with QQQ closing at $601.92 (-1.27%). A weekly TTM Squeeze has been in play since November, marking the first such signal since the setup that preceded the early 2025 bear market. With NVDA accounting for nearly 9% of the index and set to report earnings at the end of February, its results could be the primary catalyst that determines where price moves next.

​Small caps showed relative strength last week, with IWM closing down slightly at $262.96 (-0.78%). Its Bollinger Band Width is expanding rather than compressing, as the index pushes higher and builds on its ~6% year-to-date gain. With price continuing to test the upper Bollinger Band, traders are watching closely to see whether this leadership can persist or begin to fade.

We are already off to a fast start today with 1HTE's on Bitcoin already working and a 0DTE on the /ES that has a wonderful R/R ratio. Here's a look at our initial setup. We'll look to build around this as our foundation for today. 

I know we talk about this all the time but as some point this will become a factor.

Let's take a look at the intraday levels for our 0DTE entries.  I have two main support/resistance levels that are particularly important for our 0DTE today. 6852 and 6880 are resistance with 6808 and 6777 working as support levels. 6777 is key for us today as that's close to our short put leg on our /ES 0DTE. 

I'll see you all shortly in the live trading room and scalping feed! 

I'm not superstitious but...just saying. Do we have a real change of directions starting?  We have talked the last few days about shorting the DIA. Looks like yesterday would have been a good entry for that trade. A tame CPI release could step in to save the bulls but its starting to look a bit weak.

I had a losing day yesterday on my main 0DTE. I couldn't get out fast enough on the initial downward move. I adjusted four times throughout the day but it wasn't enough. Here's a look at my results. 

​Gold fell 3% alongside equities, which is not how a clean risk-off tape behaves. That was deleveraging, not rotation.

WTI crude slipped to $62.74 after the IEA cut its demand forecast and maintained its call for a deep supply glut this year. 

Bitcoin dropped to roughly $65,000, confirming cross-asset deleveraging.

Thursday was the ugliest session of 2026. 

The Dow shed 669 points. The S&P lost 1.57%. The Nasdaq fell 2.03%. 

All seven Mag 7 names closed red. Cisco (CSCO) lost 12%. Apple (AAPL) lost 5%.

Technicals are decidedly bearish before CPI release. 

The "VIX mix" is moving into the risk off zone. 

It would be nice if we could get some real selling pressure. Bear markets are easier for us to find setups in. 

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Thursday closed down -1.57%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) closed down -1.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -2.04%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -1.55%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) fell -2.02%.
Stock indexes gave up an early advance and sold off sharply on Thursday as the Magnificent Seven technology stocks retreated, weighing on the broader market.  Also, Cisco Systems fell more than -12% after saying that higher memory-chip prices are expected to eat into its profitability.  In addition, trucking and logistics companies fell sharply amid the threat of AI on future earnings.
Lower bond yields were supportive of stocks, as the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 2.25-month low of 4.10% after weekly jobless claims fell less than expected and Jan existing home sales fell more than expected to a 16-month low. 
US weekly initial unemployment claims fell -5,000 to 227,000, showing a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of 223,000.
US Jan existing home sales fell -8.4% m/m to a 16-month low of 3.91 million, weaker than expectations of 4.5 million.
The markets this week will focus on corporate earnings results and economic news.  On Friday, Jan CPI is expected to be up +2.5% y/y, and Jan core CPI is expected to be up +2.5% y/y.
Q4 earnings season is in full swing, as more than two-thirds of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results.  Earnings have been a positive factor for stocks, with 76% of the 358 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations.  According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P earnings growth is expected to climb by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth.  Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to increase by +4.6%.
The markets are discounting a 9% chance for a -25 bp rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18.
Overseas stock markets settled mixed on Thursday.  The Euro Stoxx 50 fell from a new all-time high and closed down by -0.40%.  China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +0.05%.  Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 fell from a record high and closed down by -0.02%.

Today could be a decent directional day so I'll look initially for a debit setup. See you all shortly!

One of the attributes of our (and most peoples) trades are that you first have to develop a bias or premise. If you aren't bullish, bearish or neutral it's going to be pretty hard to setup a trade. The other attribute we see over and over is that IF you're right, you're usually right (and your trade idea is validated) quickly. If you're still battling your trade and the trading session is almost over, your chances of success diminish.
We've seen this play out every day this week. We haven't really hit any homeruns but everyday has been profitable and maybe more interesting, we've been done in just a few hours. Nobody complains about shortened work days! 
Yesterday was a continuation of this theme for us. Here's a look at our shortened trading session. 

We also have two working trade entries for Gold and /ES If we get these filled we'll be off to the races for todays trades. 

Let's take a look at the markets to start us off today. 
​Technicals continue to be supportive. 

The interest rate sensitive IWM backed off. QQQ remains weak and I'm continuing to look for an entry on a DIA short. 

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.33%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.23% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as strong U.S. jobs data boosted optimism about the nation’s economic outlook.
Investors now await U.S. jobless claims data and a new wave of corporate earnings reports.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed mixed.  Software stocks sank, with Atlassian (TEAM) sliding over -6% and Intuit (INTU) falling more than -5%. Also, real estate services stocks slumped amid concerns that the latest wave of AI applications and tools could disrupt the industry, with Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) tumbling over -13% and CBRE Group (CBRE) plunging more than -12% to lead losers in the S&P 500. In addition, Mattel (MAT) plummeted over -24% after the toymaker posted downbeat results for the crucial holiday quarter and provided disappointing FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. On the bullish side, chip stocks climbed, led by a more than +9% jump in Micron Technology (MU) after CFO Mark Murphy said the company had begun volume production and shipments of its next-generation high-bandwidth memory chips.
The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Wednesday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 130K in January, much stronger than expectations of 66K. Also, the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.3% in January, stronger than expectations of no change at 4.4%. In addition, U.S. January average hourly earnings rose +0.4% m/m and +3.7% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y.
President Trump lauded the figures in a social media post on Wednesday and said the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world. “GREAT JOBS NUMBERS, FAR GREATER THAN EXPECTED!” Mr. Trump wrote.
“[Wednesday’s] employment report was a 10 out of 10 with positive surprises across the board,” said Peter Graf at Amova Asset Management Americas. “It should quell recent concerns about growth, but puts incoming Fed Chair Warsh in the hot seat — it will be even harder to persuade the FOMC members to go along with the president’s mandate to cut rates.”
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Wednesday that the central bank should keep rates at a “somewhat restrictive” level, as he voiced continued concerns about inflation remaining too high. “In my view, further rate cuts risk allowing high inflation to persist even longer,” Schmid said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.1% chance of no rate change and a 5.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s tariff policies faced their strongest political setback yet as the Republican-led U.S. House passed legislation aimed at ending the president’s levies on Canadian imports.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 222K, compared to last week’s number of 231K.
The National Association of Realtors’ existing home sales data will also be released today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 4.16 million in January, compared to 4.35 million in December.
On the earnings front, notable companies such as Applied Materials (AMAT), Arista Networks (ANET), Airbnb (ABNB), and Coinbase Global (COIN) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.168%, down -0.10%.

This market is wound tighter than a $10 dollar banjo at an East Texas wedding! Look, there are two types of market volatility...expanding and contracting. We're wound up pretty tight right now. Expansion ALWAYS follows contraction. At some point well get another directional change but for now, we'll start today with our /ES trade that filled last night.  

This is an incredibly low risk setup which can be built on in many different ways today. Here's an example. 

I'll try to be a bit more patient with our setup today. I jumped the gun a bit yesterday.

​SPX remains near recent highs, while MACD breadth reflects a more measured internal backdrop. The number of stocks registering MACD buy signals has rebounded into the mid-range of its recent distribution but remains below prior expansion peaks seen during stronger participation phases.
The 10-day average of MACD buy signals has turned higher, indicating improvement from recent lows, though breadth levels are not yet extended relative to historical highs. At current levels, price and breadth are no longer deeply oversold nor broadly overheated.
Participation has recovered from prior weakness but remains moderate compared to earlier periods of stronger momentum expansion. This reflects an environment where internal strength has improved, yet remains selective rather than broad-based.

​QQQ’s volatility smile remains well-defined, with elevated implied volatility on the downside relative to at-the-money strikes, signaling persistent demand for put protection.
The front-end of the curve is broadly in line with yesterday but still below levels seen five days ago and one month ago, suggesting some moderation in tail hedging despite the bid for downside skew.
At-the-money IV is hovering in the mid-teens, while deep out-of-the-money puts remain priced at a notable premium, reflecting a cautious tone beneath the surface.
Overall, the curve points to a market that is stable near spot but still willing to pay up for protection against sharper downside moves.

Let's take a look at the markets this morning. 
We are holding to a slight buy mode technically but we've got NFP incoming so that could easily change. 

The DIA finally stalled out.  We are back up at these "nose bleed" levels on the others. I may look at taking a small short in the DIA today.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are trending up +0.10% this morning as investors await the release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is crucial for shaping expectations about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. S&P Global (SPGI) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the ratings agency posted weaker-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS and issued below-consensus FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, AI-infrastructure stocks retreated, with Western Digital (WDC) sliding over -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) falling more than -6%. In addition, wealth-management stocks sank amid concerns about the disruptive impact of a new AI tool designed to create tax strategies, with Raymond James Financial (RJF) and LPL Financial Holdings (LPLA) slumping over -8%. On the bullish side, Datadog (DDOG) surged more than +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. retail sales were unchanged m/m in December, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, and core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Also, the U.S. Q4 employment cost index rose +0.7% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.8% q/q. In addition, the U.S. import price index rose +0.1% m/m in December, in line with expectations.
“The latest news on consumer spending did little to change the outlook for another rate cut by the Federal Reserve, still priced in the Fed funds futures market for the next such move at the June 17 meeting,” said Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Tuesday that interest rates could remain on hold for an extended period while officials assess incoming economic data. “Rather than trying to fine-tune the funds rate, I’d prefer to err on the side of patience as we assess the impact of recent rate reductions and monitor how the economy performs,” Hammack said. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she is hopeful inflation will continue to ease, though it would take “material” weakness in the labor market for her to back further interest rate cuts.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 78.4% probability of no rate change and a 21.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report was originally scheduled for release last Friday, but was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Notably, the report will include revisions to job growth for the year through March 2025, which are expected to show a significant markdown in the pace of hiring. Economists, on average, forecast that January Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 66K, compared to the December figure of 50K.
A weak print “would undoubtedly push the Fed closer to a cut,” particularly if Friday’s inflation data come in soft, according to Scope Markets’ Joshua Mahony.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 42% of investors expect the key jobs report to be “risk on,” 37% said “mixed/negligible,” and 21% “risk off.”
Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect the January figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, compared to +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y in December.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will remain steady at 4.4% in January.
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -0.2 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -3.5 million barrels.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
On the earnings front, prominent companies such as Cisco Systems (CSCO), McDonald’s (MCD), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), and AppLovin (APP) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.129%, down -0.39%.

We've already got several trades working this morning. We are profitable on our 1HTE's so far. Our Gold 0DTE is already up and running. We'll see how NFP affects that but its green right now. We also have an interesting theta fairy start to our day, which we put on last night, in preparation for NFP release. 

It's likely we will build on this today. Possibly with an Iron condor wrap. 

​Wednesday

• US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate FEB/06 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Mortgage Applications FEB/06 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Mortgage Market Index FEB/06 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index FEB/06 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Purchase Index FEB/06 07:00 AM EST
• US Non Farm Payrolls JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Unemployment Rate JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Average Hourly Earnings MoM JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Average Hourly Earnings YoY JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Participation Rate JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Average Weekly Hours JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Government Payrolls JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Manufacturing Payrolls JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Nonfarm Payrolls Private JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US U-6 Unemployment Rate JAN 08:30 AM EST
• US Fed Bowman Speech 10:15 AM EST
• US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Distillate Stocks Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Gasoline Production Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change FEB/06 10:30 AM EST
• US 17-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM EST
• US 10-Year Note Auction 01:00 PM EST
• US Monthly Budget Statement JAN 02:00 PM EST
• US Fed Logan Speech 07:00 PM EST

Yesterday was a pretty staid, boring day. That's all right. We crave movement but boring can offer opportunities as well. We were able to finish our trading early and take the rest of the day off. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
We start the day with the bullish bias holding. 

We've had a couple bullish days in a row now. Can the bulls keep it going today?

We've got a gold 0DTE already working this morning and it looks pretty solid. We've also started a very small, bullish fly on /ES . I believe there's a good chance we don't have much movement today.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.14%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.12% this morning, pointing to further gains on Wall Street, while investors await a slew of U.S. economic data, with particular attention on the retail sales report, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and a new round of corporate earnings reports.
Lower bond yields today are supporting stock index futures. The 10-year T-note yield fell two basis points to 4.18%.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Microsoft (MSFT) rising over +3% and Meta Platforms (META) gaining more than +2%. Also, chip stocks climbed, with Broadcom (AVGO) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising more than +3%. In addition, AppLovin (APP) surged over +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Capitalwatch, a self-described independent news organization, withdrew its earlier allegations against the company. On the bearish side, Kyndryl Holdings (KD) tanked more than -54% after the company reported downbeat FQ3 results and its Chief Financial Officer, David Wyshner, exited the firm amid a review of its accounting practices.
“When markets sell off like certain areas in tech have, there’s often knee-jerk rallies,” said Sameer Samana at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. “Time will tell if we need a retest or if enough value was created.”
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that interest rates should be set lower than their current level. “I do think it’s appropriate to have significantly lower policy rates than we do,” Miran said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 82.3% chance of no rate change and a 17.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.
On the trade front, the U.S. and Bangladesh struck a deal on Monday under which the U.S. will cut its so-called reciprocal tariff to 19%, after previously lowering it from 37% to 20%, and grant a new exemption for textile products.
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. Retail Sales report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that Retail Sales will show a +0.4% m/m increase in December after the +0.6% m/m gain a month earlier.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales, which rose +0.5% m/m in November. Economists expect the December figure to rise +0.3% m/m.
The U.S. Employment Cost Index will be released today. Economists expect this figure to come in at +0.8% q/q in the fourth quarter, the same as in the third quarter.
U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes will be released today as well. Economists anticipate the import price index to rise +0.1% m/m and the export price index to rise +0.1% m/m in December, compared to the previous figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.5% m/m, respectively.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
On the earnings front, notable companies such as Coca-Cola (KO), Gilead Sciences (GILD), CVS Health (CVS), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), Cloudflare (NET), and Ford (F) are set to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.180%, down -0.33%.

​SPX remains in a short-term uptrend, though momentum dynamics have become more uneven.
The Momentum Score has rebounded from a recent dip back toward the upper range, indicating buyers remain present, but repeated pullbacks from elevated readings suggest that upside progress has been less consistent than earlier in the move.
Recent price behavior shows increasing two-way activity near highs, with momentum fluctuating rather than accelerating. This pattern reflects a market that is still trending upward but experiencing more frequent pauses as participation and follow-through vary across sessions.

We've already got a good Gold 0DTE working and we'll keep working 1HTE's as long as we can. Let's make another great day happen! See you all in the live trading room shortly.

Welcome back traders to a new week! This past week was a crazy one but we had a solid week of profits. One thing I've noticed over our trades from last week was not only the fact that every day was profitable but they were pretty easy days. The one main reason I can attribute that to is the liberal use of 1DTE's. We got an early start to most days with a 1DTE that morphed into our 0DTE's. We've got another one already working this morning. It's got a pretty solid risk/reward ratio. 

Our Friday went well for us. Here's a look at the day. It was a busy one. 

Let's take a look at the markets:
​Slight technical buy mode to start us off today. 

Markets rebounded Friday. The SPY is back to the 20DMA and the DIA actually rocketed to a new ATH. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.25%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.46% this morning, pointing to a lower open on Wall Street as rising Treasury yields curbed investors’ risk appetite.
The 10-year T-note yield rose three basis points to 4.23% after Bloomberg reported that Chinese regulators had told financial institutions to scale back their U.S. Treasury holdings, citing concerns about concentration risks and market volatility. Treasury yields also tracked a rise in Japanese government bond yields following a historic election victory by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
This week, investors will focus on key U.S. economic data, including monthly employment and inflation figures, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from a slew of high-profile companies.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed sharply higher, with the Dow notching a new all-time high. Chip stocks rallied after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told CNBC that demand for AI is “incredibly high,” with ARM Holdings (ARM) surging over +11% and Nvidia (NVDA) climbing more than +7% to lead gainers in the Dow. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks soared after the price of Bitcoin surged more than +11%, with Strategy (MSTR) jumping over +26% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and MARA Holdings (MARA) rising more than +22%. In addition, Bill Holdings (BILL) popped over +37% after the financial services firm raised its full-year guidance and Bloomberg reported that Hellman & Friedman was in talks to acquire the company. On the bearish side, Amazon.com (AMZN) slid more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow and Nasdaq 100 after the e-commerce and technology giant unveiled plans to spend $200 billion this year on AI infrastructure.
“Investors are rising to the occasion and aggressively buying the dip in stocks,” said Jose Torres at Interactive Brokers. “Basement ‘animal spirits’ are offering value hunters opportunities to accumulate shares amid a general sense on Wall Street that the selling has gone too far.”
Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to a 6-month high of 57.3 in February, stronger than expectations of 55.0. Also, U.S. consumer credit rose by $24.05 billion in December, stronger than expectations of $9 billion.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Friday he is “cautiously optimistic” about the U.S. economic outlook, suggesting that strong productivity growth could help bring inflation back to the central bank’s 2% target. “I expect the disinflationary process to resume this year once increased tariffs pass through more fully to prices,” Jefferson said. With the central bank “strongly committed to returning inflation to its target, the risk of such a one-time shift leading to sustained inflation is likely to be low,” he said. “This implies that there is more leeway for the supply side of the economy to evolve without the need for precautionary monetary policy restraint.”
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “What I’ve learned is that we really don’t want to have inflation. Once inflation gets entrenched in people’s minds, it changes how the economy evolves, and it’s one of the reasons why I think that we need to keep our policy in a restrictive posture so that we get inflation back to 2%. That’s paramount.” He also brushed aside recent downbeat reports on hiring and layoffs, saying he does not anticipate a significant deterioration in the labor market.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.2% probability of no rate change and a 15.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
This week, delayed U.S. jobs and inflation data will be the main highlights, as investors assess when the Fed is likely to lower interest rates again. The January jobs report is set to be released on Wednesday after being delayed from February 6th due to the partial government shutdown. Notably, the report will include revisions to job growth for the year through March 2025, which are expected to show a significant markdown in the pace of hiring. The January CPI data will be released on Friday, delayed from February 11th, with investors seeking further evidence that inflation is on a downward trend to pave the way for rate cuts in the months ahead. U.S. retail sales data for December will also attract attention, as market participants watch to see whether American consumers sustained their spending momentum during the holiday shopping season. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. Employment Cost Index, Import and Export Price Indexes, Initial Jobless Claims, and Existing Home Sales.
Market watchers will also parse comments from a slew of Fed officials. Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran, along with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, are scheduled to speak this week.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors await fresh reports from prominent companies this week, including Applied Materials (AMAT), ON Semiconductor (ON), Arista Networks (ANET), Cisco Systems (CSCO), McDonald’s (MCD), The Coca-Cola Company (KO), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Shopify (SHOP), AppLovin (APP), Gilead Sciences (GILD), CVS Health (CVS), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), and Ford (F). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.230%, up +0.64%.

​SPY ended the week nearly flat at $690.62 (-0.20%), despite all of the volatility in single names. The Volatility Trend Bands remains in a buy signal that began on December 10th, when the mid-band shifted from a falling to a rising trend. Due to the index’s diversification, the rotation into consumer staples and energy has had a limited impact on overall S&P 500 price action.

1.34% expected move this week. That's pretty decent I.V. to start us off. 

The SPX remains near recent highs, while the long/short volatility barometer has begun to rise from historically low levels, indicating a change in volatility positioning after an extended period of suppression. Similar transitions in the past have coincided with shifts in market behavior, as volatility demand increases from compressed conditions.
At current levels, price and volatility indicators reflect a market that is adjusting from a low-volatility environment toward a more dynamic regime. When volatility metrics move higher from depressed readings, price action has often displayed greater variability, with intraday ranges expanding and directional moves becoming less uniform.
From a structural perspective, the interaction between elevated price levels and rising volatility demand highlights a change in underlying market conditions rather than a directional signal. Monitoring whether volatility measures continue to rise or stabilize may help contextualize how price responds as the market transitions away from the prior low-volatility regime.
​

We've already got our 0DTE up and running. We'll look to work around it today, if necessary. See you shortly.

I talked to a good friend yesterday who has done a good job building his portfolio. He's moved everything to treasuries. There's a palpable fear in the marketplace. I suggested that this isn't the time to "give up". It's a time to really grow your account and take advantage of this volatility. We have three distinct buckets that we put our money into. #1 Scalping. #2. ATM portfolio. #3. Day trading. Each is specifically designed to benefit from A) Volatility and B) Down-trending markets. I would suggest that we remember the old adage...every trade is a winner, for someone. Our portfolios and results have been very solid this past week because we embrace the downside. My friend said the market was getting "ugly". I view it as beautiful. 

Scared of the market? Invest in things that are "in the market but not of the market".  In our ATM portfolio, we have positions in things like Bond futures, Corn, Oil, and currencies. These have all been incredibly stable during this downturn. 

We had a really solid day yesterday. It was a fun day of trading BTC and once again, we got a jump on our other setups starting early. We've done the same this morning. Most of our trades for the day are already working and profitable. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. 
Well, the selloff was fun but now it may be done? We are back to key support levels in most all of the indices we track. Let's all just collectively keep the faith that the bears can keep it going.

Technicals are still bearish. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.58%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.69% this morning, rebounding after days of heavy selling as investors stepped in to buy the dip.
Investors also digest an earnings report from Amazon.com (AMZN). Shares of the e-commerce and technology giant slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after it unveiled plans to spend $200 billion this year on AI infrastructure, a sharp increase that outpaced revenue growth in its cloud unit. That stoked concerns that its massive AI bet may fail to pay off over the long term. At the same time, companies tied to the AI buildout got a boost from Amazon’s blowout capex plans, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) rising over +3% in pre-market trading.
Investors are now awaiting the release of the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on U.S. consumer sentiment and comments from a Federal Reserve official.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. Most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks slumped, with Amazon.com (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) falling over -4%. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks sank after the price of Bitcoin tumbled more than -12%, with MARA Holdings (MARA) plummeting over -18%, and Strategy (MSTR) plunging over -17% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, Qualcomm (QCOM) slid over -8% after the largest maker of smartphone processors issued below-consensus FQ2 guidance. On the bullish side, McKesson Corp. (MCK) jumped more than +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the drug wholesaler posted upbeat FQ3 results and raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
A Labor Department report released on Thursday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings unexpectedly fell to a 5-1/4-year low of 6.542 million in December, weaker than expectations of 7.200 million. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +22K to an 8-week high of 231K, compared with the 212K expected.
“The latest labor figures reiterate that the U.S. jobs market is not firing on all cylinders, a risk the Fed and investors will have to take seriously should further deterioration occur,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. “Volatility could persist, particularly if near-term uncertainty increases.”
Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that inflation remains his primary concern, reiterating that a still-strong labor market gives the central bank room to keep interest rates modestly restrictive. “It’s important that our policy stay at a moderately restrictive posture, because that is a posture that increases the likelihood that we will get inflation back to our 2% target,” Bostic said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.3% chance of no rate change and a 16.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.
Today, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the preliminary February figure will stand at 55.0, compared to 56.4 in January.
The Fed’s Consumer Credit report will also be released today. Economists expect the U.S. Consumer Credit to be $9 billion in December, compared to the previous figure of $4.23 billion.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
Earlier this week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the January jobs report will be published on Wednesday, February 11th. The report was originally scheduled for release today, but was delayed due to the partial government shutdown.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Philip Morris International (PM), Biogen (BIIB), and Centene (CNC) are set to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.191%, down -0.40%.

​SPX price remains near recent highs, while the momentum score has declined from previously elevated levels toward the lower end of its recent range.
This change reflects a reduction in short-term upside momentum rather than a break in the broader trend. In similar historical conditions, market behavior has often involved more range-bound activity as momentum indicators recalibrate.
Recent price action suggests increased sensitivity around nearby technical levels, with shorter-term moves occurring within a narrower context compared to earlier in the rally.

Let's take a look at the fear and greed index. It's still not fearful enough to really merit jumping back into longs. 

That being said, the last week of price action really hasn't been that bad. It's more a reallocation from tech to other sectors. 

We already have our /ES 0DTE working this morning. Premiums are great. Each contract offers a 25% max potential profit for today. 

It's been a solid week for us. Let's finish it off strong today folks! See you all in the live trading room. 

It's tough (even dangerous) to use the word "guaranteed" when speaking of investing. As a financial advisor and former stockbroker, we were forbidden to even use the word for compliance purposes. Every once in a while, though, we find unique arbitrage opportunities.  Yesterday we had a brief opportunity to lock in a 1% to 3% guaranteed return in approx. a month. You could have bought the prediction wager that the Fed would hold rates and simultaneously that they would cut rates by .25bps. The cost was .99C with a payoff of 1.00 (or 1%) this was as high as 3% in the overnight session. It does pay off to be a part of a trading community where you have someone (me in this instance)  scouring the markets for unique trades that give us "edge". 

Speaking of "Edge". One of the best ways I know to build "Alpha" in your portfolio is to take the least amount of risk with the highest potential reward. Prop firms offer that. Pair a $50,000 prop account with our scalping futures program and you're there.  Lately many prop traders with the firm  Top step have been having problems. They've wiped their social media. Aren't returning customer inquires  and are rejecting payouts. We have affiliated with APEX. It's a solid platform if you are having issues. Check them out. You'll be glad you did. 

We had a rip roaring day yesterday. Everything we traded hit for a profit. That's all you can every ask for. Here's a look at the day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. 
Technicals are stuck in sell mode. Let's keep this ball rolling!

The IWM and DIA continue to hold up well. The SPY is weakening, and the tech-heavy QQQ is falling out of bed. 
​Watch the 50DMA on SPY today. If we lose, we could get some really nice downside action. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are down -0.42%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are down -0.55% this morning, pointing to further losses on Wall Street as technology stocks face renewed pressure.
Sentiment was dampened by some negative corporate news. Alphabet (GOOGL) fell over -4% in pre-market trading after Google’s parent reported upbeat Q4 results but said it plans to nearly double capital expenditures this year. Also, Qualcomm (QCOM) plunged more than -12% in pre-market trading after the chip company issued below-consensus FQ2 guidance. In addition, Arm Holdings (ARM) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading as the chip designer’s FQ4 revenue guidance disappointed investors.
Investors now await U.S. jobless claims data and the delayed reading on job openings as well as a new wave of corporate earnings reports, with particular attention on results from “Magnificent Seven” member Amazon.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed mixed. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) sank over -17% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker issued Q1 revenue guidance that underwhelmed investors. Also, most members of the Magnificent Seven stocks slid, with Tesla (TSLA) and Nvidia (NVDA) falling over -3%. In addition, Boston Scientific (BSX) plunged over -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the medical device maker issued soft FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. On the bullish side, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged more than +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the AI server maker posted upbeat FQ2 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance.
“There might be a glass half full and a glass half empty perspective on the moves here. On the one hand, tech stocks are potentially too richly valued. On the other hand, the strength in the market is broadening out in a sign of improving economic fundamentals, backed up by data that shows more robust economic conditions,” according to Kyle Rodda at Capital.com.
The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by +22K in January, weaker than expectations of +46K. At the same time, the U.S. ISM services index was unchanged at 53.8 in January, stronger than expectations of a decline to 53.5. Also, the U.S. January S&P Global services PMI was revised higher to 52.7 from the preliminary reading of 52.5.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Wednesday that it is crucial for the central bank to maintain its credibility by bringing inflation back to target in the near term. “Until I see stronger evidence that inflation is moving sustainably back down to target, that is where my focus will be, in the absence of unexpected changes in the labor market,” Cook said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.0% probability of no rate change and a 12.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full force, and investors await new reports from notable companies today, including Amazon.com (AMZN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (BMY), Roblox (RBLX), and Microchip Technology (MCHP). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 212K, compared to last week’s number of 209K.
The U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures will also be released today. Economists anticipate that the December JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.200 million, compared to the November figure of 7.146 million.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday that the January jobs report will be published on Wednesday, February 11th. The report was originally scheduled for release on Friday, but was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Also, January’s consumer price index report, originally set for release next Wednesday, will now be published on Friday, February 13th.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.280%, up +0.05%.

If you were with me last night on Twitter (X) we had an awesome, almost all-night session trading bitcoin. We have a wonderful opportunity right now. We made our daily income goal of $1,000+ profit, but now I'm tired. We've got our daily BTC trades already going this morning. Let's see how much more we can pull out today. 

We've already got our /ES 0DTE working this morning. Let's shoot for another easy day, like yesterday. 

Welcome back traders. Each week we endeavor to conduct a few training sessions on becoming a better trader. One of the biggest lessons we reiterate revolves around position sizing and money management. The bold statement is that if you can get those two things right you can make money and create an edge. Even if your trades are not amazing. We certainly saw that yesterday with our 1HTE BTC trades.  I went 1 for 7 and still finished green. Not necessarily something to be proud of, I guess. Or is it? It was clearly the money management, not me, not the entries that created that profit.  I wish I would have been a bit more aggressive on playing the rebound with scalping. I've been off there for a couple days. Everything else is progressing nicely. We have two 0DTE trades already working today. A gold trade and an /ES trade. Both are already showing green so hopefully it's a smooth day for us. Here's a look at our day from yesterday. 

Let's take a look at the markets. 
We've got a slight sell signal to start the day. It has been sitting at a neutral rating for a bit. Honestly not much to devine out of the early morning price action. I'm pretty happy with our Gold and /ES 0DTE's to start the day. 

Watch those moving averages! SPY and QQQ continue to toy with the 20/50DMA's. IWM and DIA are perched just above their 20DMA. This is basic technical analysis at it's best. Above these =bullish. Below = bearish. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH26) are up +0.11%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are up +0.01% this morning, steadying after yesterday’s tech-led selloff, while investors await the U.S. ADP employment report and a slew of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from “Magnificent Seven” member Alphabet.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. Data services and software stocks plummeted after AI firm Anthropic released an automation tool for lawyers, with Thomson Reuters Corp. (TRI) tumbling over -15% and EPAM Systems (EPAM) plunging more than -12%. Also, chip stocks sank, with Micron Technology (MU) sliding over -4% and Marvell Technology (MRVL) falling nearly -4%. In addition, Gartner (IT) cratered over -20% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the research and consulting firm issued disappointing FY26 guidance. On the bullish side, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) climbed over +6% after the data analytics company posted upbeat Q4 results as well as issued Q1 and FY26 revenue guidance that smashed Wall Street expectations.
“Our sense is that markets are churning underneath the surface as worries over AI capital spending battle with ‘hopes and dreams’ of broadening out as a result of an accelerating U.S. economy,” said Chris Senyek at Wolfe Research.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday that last year’s rate cuts have helped bolster the labor market as policymakers now work to bring inflation back toward the central bank’s target. “I think of these cuts as having taken out some insurance to support the labor market as we work to complete the last mile to bring inflation back to target,” Barkin said. At the same time, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the absence of strong price pressures in the economy suggests interest rates, which he described as restrictive, should be lowered again this year. “I’m probably looking for a little bit more than a point of interest-rate cuts over the course of the year,” Miran said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.0% chance of no rate change and a 9.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
Meanwhile, President Trump signed a spending bill on Tuesday, bringing the four-day partial government shutdown to an end. The deal cleared the U.S. House of Representatives earlier in the day by a 217-214 vote.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, and investors look forward to new reports from high-profile companies today, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Eli Lilly and Company (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Uber Technologies (UBER), QUALCOMM (QCOM), Boston Scientific (BSX), and Arm Holdings (ARM). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP private payrolls report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the January ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 46K, compared to the December figure of 41K.
The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the January ISM services index to be 53.5 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 52.5, compared to the previous values of 54.4 and 52.5, respectively.
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -2 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -2.3 million barrels.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.276%, up +0.09%.

​SPX is still holding near recent highs, but the volatility backdrop is starting to look stretched in the short term.
The volatility risk premium has expanded to around 3.2%, sitting in the upper end of its recent range (above the 80th percentile), which signals implied volatility is running rich relative to realized moves.
That combination often shows up when the market is pricing in protection despite price stability, leaving price more sensitive to negative surprises.
Near term, this setup favors a more two-sided tape: upside progress may slow unless volatility compresses, while any pullback could see faster intraday moves as dealers adjust exposure.
In the very short run, watch whether SPX can hold recent support while VRP cools persistence of elevated VRP alongside flat price would argue for continued choppiness rather than a clean trend extension.

​Wednesday

• US MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate JAN/30 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Mortgage Applications JAN/30 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Mortgage Market Index JAN/30 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Mortgage Refinance Index JAN/30 07:00 AM EST
• US MBA Purchase Index JAN/30 07:00 AM EST
• US ADP Employment Change JAN 08:15 AM EST
• US Treasury Refunding Announcement 08:30 AM EST
• US NY Fed Bill Purchases 1 to 4 months 09:20 AM EST
• US S&P Global Composite PMI Final JAN 09:45 AM EST
• US S&P Global Services PMI Final JAN 09:45 AM EST
• US ISM Services PMI JAN 10:00 AM EST
• US ISM Services Business Activity JAN 10:00 AM EST
• US ISM Services Employment JAN 10:00 AM EST
• US ISM Services New Orders JAN 10:00 AM EST
• US ISM Services Prices JAN 10:00 AM EST
• US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Gasoline Stocks Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Crude Oil Imports Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Distillate Fuel Production Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Distillate Stocks Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Gasoline Production Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Heating Oil Stocks Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US EIA Refinery Crude Runs Change JAN/30 10:30 AM EST
• US 17-Week Bill Auction 11:30 AM EST
• US Fed Cook Speech 06:30 PM EST
• US Total Vehicle Sales JAN

Let's take a look at the intraday levels for today. Our /ES trade is already green and looks like the right play to start the day. Outside the expected range. Outside a 1STD deviation. 

These are the exact same levels I put up yesterday afternoon when we put on the /ES trade. I think these are solid levels for today. 

It looks like we are off to a good start this morning! Let's bring it home today. See you all shortly in the live zoom!

Elon Musk will combine his rocket maker SpaceX with his artificial intelligence startup, xAI, ahead of potential IPO. The combined company is expected to price shares at a $1.25 trillion valuation.
The late, great, T. Boone Pickens wrote the famous book, "The first billion is the hardest". Elon may need to prepare to write his version, "The first trillion is the hardest". This "rollup" will be interesting to watch. Is folding $TSLA (at maybe a 20% premium?) into the new entity coming next?

We had a solid day yesterday. Everything worked with just one adjustment on /ES 0DTE. Here's a look at our day. 

Our Gov. shutdown trade is an interesting example of the unique setups you can find with kalshi. We bought this at .68c yesterday and can sell it this morning for .92c. A 20% overnight return. 

​March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH26) are trending up +0.41% this morning as forecast-beating quarterly results and guidance from Palantir Technologies boosted sentiment.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) surged over +11% in pre-market trading after the data analytics company posted upbeat Q4 results as well as issued Q1 and FY26 revenue guidance that smashed Wall Street expectations.
Also aiding sentiment, precious metals rebounded after a historic two-day selloff, with gold jumping more than +5% to move back above $4,900.
Investors now await a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher. Sandisk (SNDK) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after CTBC Securities Investment Service Co. Ltd. initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $660. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Micron Technology (MU) and Intel (INTC) climbing more than +5%. In addition, Teradyne (TER) rose over +3% after Alethia Capital Limited initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and $400 price target. On the bearish side, Walt Disney (DIS) slumped more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after several analysts said the company’s Q2 guidance was disappointing.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. January ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6, the highest since August 2022. Economists had forecast the figure would rise to 48.5.
“Manufacturing activity seems to be emerging from a cold winter,” said Brian Jacobsen at Annex Wealth Management. “We’ve seen signs of life before, only for manufacturing to dip again, but with new orders growing, maybe this revival is real.”
Following the manufacturing data, traders slightly pared expectations for Fed rate cuts. U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.0% probability of no rate change and a 9.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March. The next rate cut is expected to come in July.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday, “We have so much momentum in the U.S. economy that the Fed needs to keep the policy rate in a mildly restrictive stance,” adding that he does not project any rate cuts in 2026.
On the trade front, President Trump said on Monday that the U.S. will cut the so-called reciprocal tariff on India to 18% from 25%. Mr. Trump also said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi agreed to stop purchases of Russian oil and buy more from the U.S. and “potentially” Venezuela. Bloomberg reported that the commitment would result in the removal of the extra 25% tariff on India tied to the oil purchases. Overall, the moves will reduce tariffs on many Indian goods from 50% to 18%. Additionally, Trump said that India will “move forward to reduce their Tariffs and Non Tariff Barriers against the United States, to ZERO.”
Meanwhile, the partial U.S. government shutdown has entered its fourth day. The House Rules Committee easily moved the funding package forward in a party-line vote late Monday, setting it up for a floor vote on Tuesday. If the full House passes the funding package and President Trump signs it into law, the partial shutdown will come to an end.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will not publish the January jobs report on Friday as scheduled due to the partial government shutdown. “The release will be rescheduled upon the resumption of government funding,” Emily Liddel, BLS associate commissioner for publications and special studies, said in a statement. The agency said the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey release for December, originally set for today, will also be rescheduled.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, with investors anticipating fresh reports from major companies today, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Merck & Co. (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), Amgen (AMGN), and Pfizer (PFE). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +8.4% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
Market participants will also parse comments today from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.290%, up +0.28%.

​SPX remains in a short-term uptrend, with breadth playing an increasingly important role in supporting price action.
The number of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has rebounded into the neutral-to-strong zone and continues to trend higher, indicating improving participation following the recent dip.
In the near term, this breadth recovery suggests that pullbacks have been met with renewed demand rather than sustained selling pressure, helping stabilize the index above recent swing lows.
At the same time, breadth is no longer at depressed levels, which may limit the pace of upside progress and result in more incremental, uneven advances.
A stall or rollover in breadth near the upper band would be an early indication of consolidation or a brief pause in momentum.

Let's look at the markets.
​Technicals have firmed up with a solid bullish bias. 

The DIA is finally coming to life. IWM has stopped it's slide. SPY and QQQ have firmed up. It's anybody's call today. Do the bulls or bears run the show?

Pre-market futures action isn't offering up much in the way of exciting setups for me this morning. I may start our 0DTE off with another attempt at Gold. That was ill fated last time. It will likely be a one sided trade IF I do go that route today.