I've been at this thing we call trading for a long time. Almost 40 years. I've seen a lot of changes. Lots of new opportunities. The advent of commission free stock trading was amazing with this new thing called discount brokers. ETF's introduction was amazing and today you can trade and invest well using nothing but them. Weekly options, then thrice weekly, then daily option expirations was a game changer. Today we have another! Prop trading with options. Prop trading isn't something new. It's been around for a while. The problem is it's futures based. That means #1. Directional only trades. #2. No overnight holds. #3. Nowadays the rules to getting funded are complex, convoluted and overwhelming. That all changes today! We've got access to the only true OPTIONS focused scalping program in existence. Make sure to tune in to our zoom feed today. We'll be reviewing our opportunity and putting on our first official trades. We've also got a massive discount to pass on that only lasts for today. 

Keep your eye on our website; WeFundYourTrading.com We'll be putting up some training videos this week. 

We had a really solid day on Thurday. Scalping produced, and we killed it with our SPX trade. $2,400 profit day gross, but we're still digging out of a hole on our SPX for the last two weeks.  Here's a look at our day. 

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU26) are down -0.10%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU26) are up +0.11% this morning, pointing to a mixed open on Wall Street after a long weekend as investors weigh the progress of U.S.-Iran peace negotiations.
Qatar and Pakistan said in a joint statement early Monday that the U.S. and Iran had agreed to a roadmap aimed at reaching a final peace agreement within 60 days. The countries began technical negotiations in the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock over the weekend, following the interim agreement they reached last week. “Encouraging progress has been made, including the creation of a mechanism for further technical talks,” Qatar and Pakistan said. The sides also set up a communication channel to prevent incidents and miscalculations, with the goal of ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Both countries also agreed to establish a mechanism to ensure the cessation of military operations in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran said there had been “major progress” in discussions with the U.S.
The price of WTI crude reversed earlier gains and edged lower on Monday. Oil prices initially surged after Iran said on Saturday that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz as tensions escalated in Lebanon, while U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday threatened military action against Iran if Hezbollah militants continued their attacks on Israel.
Treasuries fell across the curve on Monday, with the benchmark 10-year yield rising three basis points to 4.49% as traders continued to price in the prospect of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.
This week, investors are looking ahead to a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, with particular focus on the PCE inflation reading, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.
In Thursday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the green. Chip stocks rallied, led by a more than +10% jump in Intel (INTC) after President Trump said that Apple had agreed to partner with the company to design and manufacture chips in the U.S. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Amazon.com (AMZN) rising nearly +3%. In addition, Smith & Wesson (SWBI) jumped over +17% after the company posted better-than-expected FQ4 results. On the bearish side, Accenture (ACN) plunged more than -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the consulting giant issued below-consensus FQ4 revenue guidance.
Economic data released on Thursday were positive for equities. The number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -4K to 226K, compared with the 225K expected. Also, the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index rose to 10.3 in June, stronger than expectations of 9.8. In addition, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. rose +0.1% m/m in May, in line with expectations.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 63.7% probability of no rate change and a 36.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next central bank meeting in July.
This week, the May reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight. Economists expect the core PCE price index to accelerate on both a monthly and annual basis last month. “Elevated PCE core inflation numbers could add to rate hike expectations,” according to Mark Dowding at BlueBay Fixed Income. The report will cap a month of disappointing inflation data, with earlier releases showing the effects of the energy shock spreading throughout the economy. Preliminary U.S. June purchasing managers’ surveys for manufacturing and services will also attract attention. If the surveys point to strong activity in the manufacturing and services sectors, it would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike by year-end. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. GDP (third estimate), Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Spending, Personal Income, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, New Home Sales, Wholesale Inventories (preliminary), and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
Market watchers will also pay close attention to speeches from Fed officials, particularly after new Chairman Kevin Warsh refused last week to provide any clues about his own outlook for inflation or interest rates. Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are scheduled to speak this week.
In addition, high-profile companies such as memory chipmaker Micron Technology (MU), shipping giant FedEx (FDX), AI chip developer Cerebras Systems (CBRS), and cruise company Carnival Corporation (CCL) are set to report their quarterly results this week.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.49%, up +0.56%.

Let's take a look at the markets. They took a bit of a pause on Thursday. 

Technicals are pointing bullish this morning after some whipsawing overnight. The Middle East continues to be a market driver. 

Expected SPX weekly move is 1.26% Nothing out of the ordinary here. 

​SPY ended the week higher at $746.74 (+1.36%), bouncing clean off the 50-day EMA. It gapped up Monday, then filled the gap during the FOMC selloff. With a bearish Put/Call Ratio at 1.61, weak Trend Strength Candles, and the TTM squeeze squeezing, the 50-day EMA is the key level for bulls to hold.

​IWM closed the week at $295.59 (+3.53%), the strongest of the three indexes for the second week running. The 50-day EMA has held twice on solid volume, though momentum remains neutral. The Put/Call Ratio at 3.08 is the highest of the three indexes and the clearest bearish flag on the chart.

Let's look at the intraday /ES levels for our 0DTE trading today. 7590, 7600, 7611, 7625 are resistance levels with 7563, 7550, 7545, 7537 working as support levels. 

I'm really looking forward to seeing you all on the zoom feed this morning. The options prop trading is going to be a game changer for us. 

Well, Kevin Warsh's first FOMC has come and gone. I personally thought he did a good job. I'm apparently in the minority! It's so hard to tell anymore with social media.The "vocal minority" may becoming more vocal. There's already lots of memes popping up about "task forces". Look. I get it but let's let the guy actually spend more than a few days on the job before we crucify him. The shift in the FED was seismic! Going from looking for one rate CUT this year to possibly getting two rate HIKES? That's a big swing. Oil prices coming down clearly is not enough.With tomorrows market holiday today ends up being quad witching for the month. This means there's a lot of Gamma out there folks so protect you trades and grab profits where they appear. Today isn't a day to be "holding into the close". We had another stellar week with our ATM portfolio. I'm so proud of that!
It was an absolute scalpers paradise yesterday. FOMC days are usually boring for us because scalping action is usually done in the first hour of our day and then we sit around waiting on the Chairman's testimony to get us moving again. Yesterday was nice though because we scalped SPCX while we waited. It brought in a little over one hundred bucks so we didn't get rich but it was fun. It kept us busy and it was pretty darn good risk/reward. We did have to roll our SPX puts but they look set to open up profitable this morning. We also put on a Vampire trade that looks set to expire fully profitable at the cash open. All in all it was a solid day for us. Here's a look at how it went (minus the Vampire setup)

Let's take a look at the markets to finish off the week. The Warsh selloff into the close yesterday seems a bit overblown. Not atypical after the Chairman speaks. It does look a bit like we are forming a double top or "M". Remember, if "W" stands for winner, "M" stands for murder. Who knows...we're still carrying our short positions in our ATM portfolio and they continue to dampen our volatility and give us some downside profit potential.

Futures have rebounded overnight but technicals are still flashing sell into the open. 

​June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.98%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +1.64% this morning, pointing to a sharply higher open on Wall Street as sentiment got a boost after U.S. President Donald Trump signed a preliminary agreement to end the Iran war.
The price of WTI crude fell over -2% on Thursday as investors wagered on a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump told reporters that he signed the interim agreement with Iran at the Palace of Versailles near Paris, where he had dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron. Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Masoud Pezeshkian, signed the so-called memorandum of understanding on Wednesday, ahead of the previously scheduled Friday signing. The 14-point framework calls for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after Washington lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and removes sanctions on Iranian oil sales. In an early indication that the shipping industry is responding to the deal, some oil and gas tankers began passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including vessels owned by Saudi Arabia’s state-run tanker company.
Investors are now awaiting a new round of U.S. economic data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks slid, with Meta Platforms (META) falling over -5% and Amazon.com (AMZN) dropping more than -3%. Also, telecommunication stocks declined, with Charter Communications (CHTR) slumping over -6% and AT&T (T) falling more than -3%. In addition, CarMax (KMX) sank about -9% as investors appeared unconvinced that the used-car retailer’s turnaround is gaining traction, even after it reported better-than-expected Q1 results. On the bullish side, chip stocks advanced, with Arm Holdings (ARM) climbing more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Applied Materials (AMAT) rising over +4%.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. retail sales jumped +0.9% m/m in May, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m, and core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, grew +0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m. Separately, U.S. pending home sales climbed +3.8% m/m in May, exceeding expectations of +0.8% m/m and marking the biggest increase in 20 months.
“Retail sales in May point to a resilient consumer despite accelerating inflation and higher borrowing costs. Looking ahead, the recent drop in oil prices should provide relief at the pump, while an improving labor market suggests a stable outlook for consumer spending,” said Angelo Kourkafas at Edward Jones.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. In their post-meeting statement, policymakers said inflation remained elevated, dropped language referring to potential additional adjustments to interest rates, and declared that “the committee will deliver price stability.” Policymakers’ updated projections showed that nine officials expect at least one quarter-point rate hike this year, with six forecasting at least two. Another nine anticipated either no move or a rate cut. Notably, one Fed official did not submit any interest-rate projections.
At a press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh confirmed that he was the official who did not submit a projection in the so-called dot plot. Also, Mr. Warsh pledged to restore price stability. “Persistently high prices are a burden for the American people, but the recent past need not be prologue,” he said. In addition, the new Fed chief announced the formation of multiple task forces to review five areas and propose changes to the way the Fed operates.
“[June’s FOMC] meeting confirms that the Fed’s recent hawkish shift was not just about higher energy prices. Despite the recent pullback in oil, half of the members of the FOMC expect rate hikes as soon as this year, reflecting strong labor market and inflation data,” said Kay Haigh at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 67.9% chance of no rate change and a 32.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in July.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 225K, compared to last week’s number of 229K.
The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released today. Economists anticipate that the Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 9.8 in June, compared to last month’s value of -0.4.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists project the May figure to rise +0.1% m/m, matching the previous month’s gain.
In addition, Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. 
On the earnings front, IT and consulting company Accenture (ACN) and grocery store operator Kroger (KR) are set to report their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.46%, down -0.87%.
On Friday, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed for Juneteenth.

Let's take a look at the intraday /ES levels were working off of today for our 0DTE's.  7552 is the current demarcation battle point between bulls and bears. 7564, 7568, 7596, 7623 are resistance levels with 7545, 7532, 7509 working as support levels. 

Does he remove the dot plots? Do we get a nod to potential hikes? How hawkish will it be? These are all big questions that we should get answered today. 
​Our trading was solid yesterday. Here's a look at it: 

Let's look at the markets this morning. Markets stalled a bit yesterday. Perhaps digesting the potential Iranian situation.  

Technicals are slightly bullish. Not too meaningful on an FOMC day. 

​June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +0.54% this morning, signaling a rebound from yesterday’s selloff, while investors await the first Federal Reserve rate decision under Kevin Warsh.
Nasdaq 100 futures were buoyed by a rebound in chip stocks. Micron Technology (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and KLA Corp. (KLAC) rose more than +2% in pre-market trading.
The price of WTI crude steadied on Wednesday. The U.S. and Iran prepare to formally sign their interim peace agreement in Switzerland on Friday. The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. will lift sanctions on Iranian oil sales under the deal. The memorandum of understanding also includes lifting U.S. and Iranian blockades in the Strait of Hormuz.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Chip stocks retreated, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) slumping over -9% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Intel (INTC) falling more than -8%. Also, software stocks slid, with Atlassian Corp. (TEAM) dropping more than -3% and ServiceNow (NOW) falling over -2%. In addition, Cboe Global Markets (CBOE) sank more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Michael Selig defended the decision to approve perpetual futures. On the bullish side, Moderna (MRNA) climbed over +6% and was among the top percentage gainers on the S&P 500 after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration released briefing documents for a June 18th meeting to discuss the company’s mFLUSIVA mRNA vaccine.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. import price index jumped +1.9% m/m in May, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m. Separately, U.S. May housing starts fell -15.4% m/m to a 6-year low of 1.177 million, weaker than expectations of 1.430 million, and building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -0.7% m/m to 1.413 million, weaker than expectations of 1.420 million.
“We expect import prices to gradually decelerate in the second half of the year as geopolitical tensions ease and global supply conditions improve,” said Vivian Chen at Nationwide Financial.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% as officials assess how the Iran war’s energy-price shock is filtering through the economy. Investors will be watching for any signals on whether a rate hike is likely. Economists expect the FOMC to remove the so-called “easing bias” from its post-meeting statement and instead signal that its next policy move is just as likely to be a hike or eliminate the line in question altogether. Investors will also focus on how Warsh navigates the post-meeting press conference, his views on inflation, and how he intends to lead the central bank. In addition, the Fed will release updated projections for the economy along with its “dot plot” interest-rate forecasts, and there is speculation that Warsh may choose not to submit his dots to signal his opposition to so-called forward guidance.
“Investors will be watching the Summary of Economic Projections closely for clues on whether rate hikes are truly on the table in the second half of the year — and if so, how many. Depending on the tone and how much this meeting reshapes investor expectations, it could dictate the market’s narrative for the next several weeks, at least until earnings season takes over,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Retail Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that Retail Sales will show a +0.5% m/m increase in May, matching the previous month’s gain.
U.S. Core Retail Sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the May figure to rise +0.6% m/m, following a +0.7% m/m gain in April.
The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales data will be released today. Economists project the May figure to rise +0.8% m/m following a +1.4% m/m climb in April.
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -3.6 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -7.2 million barrels.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.44%, down -0.22%.

On FOMC day's we don't focus on levels. We start with a high Theta, low risk, low probability setup and work that into the press conference. Then we pounce once Warsh starts talking. NOTE: We are also looking to add an overnight Vampire trade before the close today. 

The big news today is SpaceX getting option trading. The stock looks like it's ready to pop again at the open. It's been pushed up in the pre-market.I'll be one of the many very interested in watching what the options provide in terms of I.V. and premium. We've got FOMC tomorrow and that could be the big driver this week. Will Warsh pull the dot plot? Will he be hawkish? Oil continues to drop like a rock and that was a big inflation driver. Will it be enough to stay dovish? We'll find out tomorrow.
We had a good day yesterday even though it took some late day maneuvers to make it happen. I'm carrying a short scalp into FOMC tomorrow. Here's a look at our day: 

Let's take a look at the markets: The news of a possible resolution in the Middle East popped the indices in the morning and they stayed strong all day. 

Not surprisingly, technicals are also showing bullish bias. 

​June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are down -0.01%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +0.01% this morning, taking a breather after a three-day rally, while investors turn their attention to the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh.
The price of WTI crude fell more than -2% on Tuesday as expectations that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen this week continued to unwind the geopolitical risk premium embedded in the market. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday at the start of the Group of Seven talks that “the deal is already signed and the strait is already partially opened,” adding that “ships are starting to go out now, and on Friday it will be completely opened.” Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs lowered their oil price forecasts for the coming quarters, with the latter now expecting Persian Gulf exports to return to pre-war levels by the end of July. The 10-year T-note yield fell three basis points to 4.45% as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed sharply higher, with the Dow posting a new record high. The Magnificent Seven stocks climbed, with Meta Platforms (META) rising over +4% and Nvidia (NVDA) gaining more than +3%. Also, chip and AI infrastructure stocks rallied, with Western Digital (WDC) jumping over +16% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Micron Technology (MU) surging more than +10%. In addition, travel stocks advanced as oil prices sank, with Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) climbing over +6% and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) rising more than +3%. On the bearish side, Fox Corp. (FOXA) tumbled over -16% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company agreed to acquire Roku in a deal valued at about $22 billion, including debt.
Economic data released on Monday were lukewarm. U.S. industrial production rose +0.1% m/m in May, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m, while manufacturing production was unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Separately, the U.S. June Empire State manufacturing index fell to 5.7, weaker than expectations of 13.2.
“The equity market started the week with a boost from the U.S.-Iran deal, but it will quickly search for a new source of momentum. While that won’t come in the form of a Fed rate cut, this week’s meeting will still be an opportunity for investors to get a read on how new Chair Kevin Warsh may pursue his longer-term agenda,” according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day, the first helmed by new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday, as it assesses how the Iran war’s energy-price shock is filtering through the economy. Investors will be watching for any signals on whether a rate hike is likely. Economists expect the FOMC to remove the so-called “easing bias” from its post-meeting statement and instead signal that its next policy move is just as likely to be a hike or eliminate the line in question altogether. Investors will also focus on how Warsh communicates at the press conference. In addition, the Fed will release updated projections for the economy along with its “dot plot” interest-rate forecasts, and there is speculation that Warsh may choose not to submit his dots to signal his opposition to so-called forward guidance.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Import and Export Price Indexes, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the import price index to rise +0.9% m/m and the export price index to rise +1.2% m/m in May, compared to the previous month’s figures of +1.9% m/m and +3.3% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data will also be released today. Economists expect May Building Permits to be 1.420 million and Housing Starts to be 1.430 million, compared to the April figures of 1.423 million and 1.465 million, respectively.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.45%, down -0.76%.

Semi's have been ripping lately and may keep going for a bit but it's important to remember, this is a cyclical industry. We are starting to selectively short some of the most overstretched names in our ATM portfolio  charliebilello
Only times in history where the Semiconductor Index gained more than 230% in a 14-month span: 1) December 1998 - February 2000 2) April 2025 - Today That's the entire list.

Yesterday I played the downside retrace and while it was a lot of work it ended up successful. I'm leaning the same way this morning. Watch the 7562 level for insight. See you all in the trading room!

Good morning traders! We've got an interesting week ahead of us. The futures are excited about a potential MOU that could be signed this week between Iran and the U.S. Once again, if I'm understanding correctly, this is an agreement to talk about coming to an agreement! This is NOT the the treaty of versailles. There is no "unconditional surrender". Oil is loving it as well back down under $80/barrel. Speaking of the treaty of versailles and war, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia has now lasted longer than WW1! The market tends to forget quickly. We've also got the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh making his big screen debut this week with FOMC. We've had a lot of profit and success in our ATM portfolio with weekly bond futures. Unfortunately, they've moved a bit too high for us to put that same setup on today. Weds. may bring a new entry opportunity for us. If we can get some hawkish datapoints out of his testimony we could get bonds back into the buying zone. Stay tuned for that for a possible Thurs. entry for us.
We had an "O.K." day on Friday. I put the bulk of my buying power (and faith) in LITE. It was a good set up, level wise but the spreads and lack of liquidity made it too tough to stick with and that reduced our profit. I was also keen to scalp the SpaceX IPO but surprisingly, it didn't move much. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets to start off this holiday shortened week. Friday was pretty solid for the bulls. SPY and QQQ's held their own and the IWM and DIA popped to a solid upside move. 

Futures are popping this morning with the MOU potential signing. That's giving the technicals a strong buy signal. 

​June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +1.22%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +1.99% this morning, pointing to a sharply higher open on Wall Street as oil prices sank after the U.S. and Iran reached an interim peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on Friday, allowing time “for purposes of mine removal.” In an earlier post, Mr. Trump said the strait would reopen “toll-free” and that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted simultaneously. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the agreement would be officially signed on Friday in Switzerland. Bloomberg reported on Monday that Qatar will host U.S. and Iranian delegations this week to finalize the details of the signing and prepare for a new round of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump told the New York Times that if a nuclear agreement is not reached, he could resume military strikes.
The price of WTI crude sank more than -5% on Monday. Treasuries rose across the curve as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, prompting traders to dial back expectations for a Fed rate hike.
This week, market participants look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and a fresh batch of U.S. economic data.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the green. Chip and AI infrastructure stocks climbed, with Arm Holdings (ARM) surging over +11% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) rising more than +7%. Also, airline stocks advanced as oil prices slid, with Southwest Airlines (LUV) and United Airlines (UAL) gaining more than +2%. In addition, SpaceX (SPCX) jumped over +19% after its record-breaking IPO. On the bearish side, Adobe (ADBE) fell more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company announced that its chief financial officer would depart, overshadowing its better-than-expected FQ2 results and FQ3 guidance.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to 48.9 in June, stronger than expectations of 46.1. Also, the University of Michigan’s U.S. June year-ahead inflation expectations unexpectedly eased to 4.6% from 4.8% in May, and 5-year implied inflation expectations eased to 3.4% from 3.9% in May.
“In keeping with the recent easing in oil and gas prices, the pullback in consumers’ short- and long-term inflation expectations offers some relief from a monetary policy standpoint. However, the inflation metrics remain elevated versus pre-war levels and in a broader historical context,” said Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets.
The Fed’s interest rate decision will take center stage in this holiday-shortened week. The Fed convenes on June 16-17 for the first meeting to be chaired by new Chairman Kevin Warsh. The central bank is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, but the outlook is less certain. Much of policymakers’ debate will be focused on mounting concerns about persistent inflation, as higher energy costs gradually filter through to other goods and services. Investors will be watching for any signals on whether a rate hike is likely. Economists expect the FOMC to remove the so-called “easing bias” from its post-meeting statement and instead signal that its next policy move is just as likely to be a hike or eliminate the line in question altogether. Investors will also focus on how Warsh communicates at the press conference. In addition, the Fed will release updated projections for the economy along with its “dot plot” interest-rate forecasts, and there is speculation that Warsh may choose not to submit his dots to signal his opposition to so-called forward guidance.
Market watchers will also monitor U.S. economic data this week. U.S. Retail Sales data for May will be the main highlight, offering insight into how consumers have held up amid the Middle East conflict. Other noteworthy data releases include the Import Price Index, the Export Price Index, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Pending Home Sales, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index.
In addition, IT and consulting company Accenture (ACN), grocery store operator Kroger (KR), and supplier of electronic parts Jabil (JBL) are slated to release their quarterly results this week.
On Friday, U.S. stock and bond markets will be closed for Juneteenth.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists project Industrial Production to rise +0.3% m/m and Manufacturing Production to rise +0.3% m/m in May, compared to the April figures of +0.7% m/m and +0.6% m/m, respectively.
The New York Fed-compiled Empire State Manufacturing Index will also be released today. Economists expect the June figure to come in at 13.2, compared to 19.6 in May.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.45%, down -0.85%.

We've got quite the sector rotation happening as the market continues to flirt with new ATH's it's also simultaneously dumping the MAG stocks. 

Expected move for the SPX in this shortened trading week is 1.37% A fairly decent range for a 4 day trading week.

Again...no zoom today but I will see you all in the live chat room! Let's make it a great day! 

There's a lot of hype coming into this morning. We've got the biggest IPO (and maybe most anticipated?) ever. There's also talk about a deal with Iran. I won't hold my breath on that one, but regardless, the markets are frothing at their proverbial mouth. I'm actually surprised futures aren't higher right now.
Let me lay out our plan of attack today. #1. Scalping: We're going to try something new today and move from scalping futures to scalping the new 2X ETF that is supposed to start trading this morning, which tracks the SpaceX IPO. The ticker is SPCF.  Tune in to our live scalping Zoom feed for that. #2. As far as 0DTE's go, I've got a couple of equities that I'm eyeing for today. It's always possible we work an index in, but I'm really wanting to move away from those today. 
Yesterday was a loser for me, and it illustrates how hard this market is to trade. We had a great day going...until the new hit on a potential deal. It scored for us on two of our three setups but lost on the SPX. I'm having a real battle recovering my profits on SPX. Here's a look at my day. 

Let's take a look at the markets this morning. Markets bounced back with a vengeance, and then some. With all the frenzy today could It make it back to the ATH level? Seems like a big ask but you never know, till you know, you know?

Technicals have turned bullish off that big move.

​June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.46% this morning, extending yesterday’s gains as fresh signs emerged that the U.S. and Iran are moving closer to a peace deal.
Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency reported that a draft agreement consists of 14 provisions. These include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, the release of $24 billion in frozen Iranian assets, and 60 days of negotiations over nuclear issues. Iran’s foreign ministry told state-run media that a framework text was close to being finalized. Bloomberg reported on Friday that an agreement could be signed as early as Sunday in Geneva, Switzerland.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday called off threatened military strikes against Iran, citing “discussions” that “have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership” for a negotiated end to the war. Hours later, Mr. Trump told reporters that the agreement could be signed as soon as this weekend in Europe, with Vice President JD Vance in attendance. “We just made a great settlement of the war with Iran, and we’re going to be subject to finalization of documents, we should get done over the next few days,” Trump said.
The price of WTI crude fell more than -3% on Friday, extending losses from the previous session amid optimism for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran.
Investors are now awaiting the release of the University of Michigan’s preliminary reading on U.S. consumer sentiment and SpaceX’s historic debut.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed sharply higher. Chip and AI infrastructure stocks rallied, with Sandisk (SNDK) jumping over +14% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, and Lam Research (LRCX) surging more than +12%. Also, InterDigital (IDCC) advanced about +9% after announcing it had entered into a patent license agreement with Amazon.com and that the two companies had agreed to resolve all pending litigation. In addition, Navan (NAVN) climbed more than +8% after the corporate travel and expense management company posted better-than-expected Q1 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Oracle (ORCL) slumped more than -8% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after the software and cloud-computing company reported quarterly capital expenditures that exceeded estimates. 
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +1.1% m/m and +6.5% y/y in May, stronger than expectations of +0.7% m/m and +6.4% y/y. However, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.4% m/m and +4.9% y/y in May, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y. Separately, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly rose by +4K to a 4-month high of 229K, compared with the 220K expected.
“This inflationary spike is likely temporary and will subside once the Iran war ends,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
After Thursday’s wholesale inflation figures, many economists now expect the core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to pick up to +3.4% y/y in May from +3.3% y/y in April. That would mark the fastest pace since late 2023.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 96.4% probability of no rate change and a 3.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the June 16-17 monetary policy meeting, the first to be chaired by the central bank’s new chairman, Kevin Warsh.
Today, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast that the preliminary June figure will come in at 46.1, compared to 44.8 in May. Also, investors will receive another update on inflation with the University of Michigan’s survey of inflation expectations.
Market participants are also gearing up for SpaceX’s historic debut. Elon Musk’s rocket and AI company sold 555.6 million shares at $135 apiece, raising roughly $75 billion in the biggest IPO ever. At that price, SpaceX has a market capitalization of $1.77 trillion. Including employee stock options and restricted share units, the pricing implies a fully diluted valuation of about $1.8 trillion. SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq today under the ticker symbol “SPCX.” Shadow markets were pricing in a surge of at least 35% for SpaceX on its debut.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.45%, down -0.47%.

Today's blog will be a bit different. No intraday /ES levels to look at today. #1. Follow our live scalping Zoom feed for any potential setups on SPCF. #2. I'll look to initiate several 0DTEs on equities today. Follow those in our live chat room in the trading room. 

I'll see you all in the chat room. Let me know if you have any questions on the scalping today. 

During my time on Wall St., we talked a lot about the "tape". Tape doesn't really exist anymore. Heck, it didn't really exist for me in the 80's either. It's a reference to the ticker tape that used to spit out quotes. Anyway... yesterday's "tape" was ugly, ugly, ugly. Just some straight-up horrible price action. Incredibly hard to day trade and really a complete "non-event" if you're a long-term investor. We had another solid day, but holy heck. It was a pain to get there. We've had a lot of fun lately, scalping in the evenings, but I took last night off. Time for a break.
Here's a look at our day.  

Let's take a look at the markets: Can you say "cliff?" This market is sitting on some very key levels. If we don't hold here the bears may have a field day. 

Looking at the daily chart you can clearly see the 50DMA working as support. This is THE key level to focus on today. 

Technicals are still flashing sell, even with futures up sharply, as I type. PPI is incoming so that could all change. 

​June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM26) are up +0.79%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM26) are up +1.21% this morning as investors stepped in to buy the dip after the swift end to the latest round of U.S. strikes against Iran fueled expectations that talks over a peace deal will resume.
The U.S. launched a new wave of attacks on Iran on Wednesday, hitting multiple targets on President Trump’s orders. U.S. forces struck surveillance systems, air defense sites, and communications networks. The American military characterized the attacks as “additional self-defense strikes” in response to Iran’s “unwarranted and continued aggression.” About four hours after launching the attacks, U.S. Central Command declared the operation concluded. Iran retaliated by launching attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan.
Concerns about further escalation lingered as President Trump told Fox News the U.S. would strike Iran again if its leaders did not sign an interim peace deal. Iran’s foreign ministry said the latest strikes had made the existing ceasefire agreement “meaningless.” Still, WTI crude oil prices erased earlier gains and edged lower as investors took comfort in the view that further escalation was in neither side’s interest.
Investors are now awaiting crucial U.S. producer inflation data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the red. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) tumbled about -28% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company announced a plan to raise $7 billion through a series of equity offerings to help fund the purchase of components needed to fulfill recent orders for its advanced AI servers. Also, chip and AI infrastructure stocks slumped, with Qualcomm (QCOM) sliding more than -6% and Western Digital (WDC) falling over -5%. In addition, shares of trucking companies declined after Amazon said it had expanded its LTL freight service to deliver to any destination in the U.S., with FedEx Freight Holding Co. (FDXF) slumping more than -6% and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) dropping over -5%. On the bullish side, Casey’s General Stores (CASY) popped more than +20% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported better-than-expected FQ4 results.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose +0.5% m/m in May, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation rose +4.2% in May, matching expectations and marking the fastest pace of increase in more than three years. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y in May, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Overall, the figures matched expectations, with investors saying they are unlikely to put additional pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates.
“It’s very possible that things wrap up in the Middle East and shipping gets back to normal over the course of the rest of the year, in which case we can see inflation come down over time, and the Fed could hold off raising rates. But if things stay as they are currently, then all bets are off,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 98.3% chance of no rate change and a 1.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. May PPI will rise +0.7% m/m and +6.4% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +1.4% m/m and +6.0% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect a core measure of wholesale inflation to rise +0.5% m/m and +5.4% y/y in May, compared to +1.0% m/m and +5.2% y/y in April.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists project this figure to be 220K, compared to last week’s number of 225K.
On the earnings front, creative software company Adobe (ADBE) and homebuilder Lennar (LEN) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.53%, down -0.61%.

Something to keep in mind as SpaceX IPO nears. ​@charliebilello
With unprecedented investor demand for the largest IPO in history (SpaceX), it's worth remembering a simple lesson: A great company doesn't always make for a great investment at any price. The median major IPO lost 31% in its first year & suffered a 53% drawdown along the way.

Is our high inflation a real concern? I'll just drop this here. @OddStats
CPI (inflation) just came in at 4.2% The first time it's been over 4% since 2023. Here's every other time CPI was 4%+ for the first time in at least a year, going back to 1975:

Let's take a look at the intraday /ES levels for our 0DTE's today. I'm going to state right now, I am really only interested in playing a bearish entry today. I believe we have much more downside vs. upside risk. Futures are rebounding now, as I type, prior to PPI release. If we pop on PPI numbers I'll wait for a credit call spread entry opportunity. We have a FAT scalp setup with ratio covers on that could yield us a nice result as well 

This just hit the new wire as I was typing out levels. 

Let me start by saying, yesterday was not a "fun" day of trading for me! You know what a "fun" day is, right? Full of potential. Everything you touch works. Yeah, that wasn't yesterday. The early morning selloff was a tough one to manage. Even scalping (although we ended with a great result) was tough. We made work, and it was a profitable day for us, but it took a lot of work. It got me thinking about the  "flexibility" of a trade setup. Some have none. They are completely binary and either work or they don't. Some have some adjustability, but not much. Scalping is the absolute best. It's tough to get too buried or "stuck" in a scalp that you are in and out of in 15 seconds. 0DTEs are a bit tougher, and the only thing that saved our trades yesterday when they went against us was our ability to scale more buying power into them. Starting small always has the "risk" of a small payoff IF the trade works and you don't need to add more buying power to it, but it sure saves you when it needs help, like ours did yesterday. 

Here's a look at our day (battle zone) from yesterday.  I hope your day went smoother!

Let's take a look at the markets see where we are at. 
Big selloff in the A.M. and a decent recovery later in the day. We are starting to look a bit shaky though.

Technicals are in full on sell mode this morning as Trump threatens Iran and CPI is about to print. 

We had an absolutely fantastic, amazing, monumentous, tremendous (you get the idea) day yesterday! That initial selloff buried all our open day trades. It took a lot of work but we adjusted and climbed back to profit on them all. What a turnaround! Here's a look at our day. 

Market news today centers around CPI release and Trump's saber-rattling, with a special guest star coming up with the SpaceX IPO. More on that in a minute. We are positioning for all of this as follows:
​#1. Our 0DTE has already started for the day with /ES. We'll likely add the put side right before CPI drops. It could be a $500 profit on $400 of risk. 

Our ATM portfolio bond entry is awaiting CPI as well. We are already 1/4 entered into the trade. 

Lastly, our scalping for the day should be pretty stress free and hands off. We've got a short combined with a ratio cover for just over $300 dollars max potential profit. 

Futures are tanking and we couldn't be happier! 

Attention: I've got a special teaser for you! Are you all hyped about the SpaceX IPO? If so, why? #1. It's 2X oversubscribed, so I'm sure it's going to pop. #2. How does that help you? Individuals are unlikely to get any substantial allocation. Are you going to buy it AFTER it's popped? #3. That generally is a bad idea. 

​The options market is flashing a clear warning: downside risk, not strength. QQQ's Options Score has collapsed from 5 (bullish) to 1 (bearish) in just 10 days—a dramatic reversal signaling defensive repositioning.
The structural picture confirms this. Net GEX sits at -$472.98M, meaning dealers are short gamma and will hedge by selling into weakness, amplifying downside moves. Critically, negative gamma is concentrated at the 700 strike—directly at Put Support—while positive gamma is dispersed well above at 750. This asymmetry creates mechanical downside bias.
Across all expirations through July, put/call ratios exceed 1.43, reflecting heavy defensive hedging. Put Support at 700 sits just 1.1% below current spot ($707.80), making it an imminent test.
Bottom line: Options traders are bracing for a move lower, not higher. The 700 level is the key battleground.

We continue to DCA into our long futures BTC position with Perpetual futures. Not familiar with these new contracts? What can I say? We trade setups most traders don't even know exsist. 

Let's take a look at the /ES levels for us today after CPI dropped. 
Here's the estimates BEFORE it drops.