Traders just want movement, any movement. Down is better than up for size of moves and premium but up is good too. We just need something to happen. That hasn't been the case for a week. Yesterday finally brought some action. Hopefully we will break out and start the next wave of directional bias. We finally got a profit on our SPX 0DTE yesterday. It was a pretty easy day and we stayed in the green all day. I wasn't quite as good on execution with scalping. I really just needed to stay short all day and it would have been lovely. Here's a look at my day: 

Let's take a look at the markets: We start the day with a sell signal.

This weakening trend is starting to take hold. 

The option smile is interesting as we see a decent sized ramp up in put tail risk coverage.

Looking at the VTI ( I think it gives the best "overall" view of the market) it's a pretty clear sell signal here. 

My lean or bias today is bearish. That's how everything is leaning. We've got FOMC minutes release today but I don't think it changes sentiment. Feels good to get back on the bear train!

The heat map for the week shows tech starting to roll over. What leads us up usually leads us down. 

We haven't taken a look lately at one of the biggest economic drivers in the economy. That's real estate. ​For the first time in history, a NEW home in the US costs $33,500 LESS than an EXISTING home, per Reventure. Not even June 2005 saw such a large gap, right before the 2008 Financial Crisis.

Is real estate due for a correction? "Experts" have been calling for one for over a year. Who knows but we do know the saying "As residential real estate goes, so goes the economy" has been true, over time. 

The last five trading days have been a big nothing burger. We know that consolidation flows into expansion. When and how much and what direction? Who knows but we do know it's coming. We put on a 1DTE setup late afternoon yesterday with a debit (long) Iron condor.

Which we will wrap this morning, with a credit (short) Iron condor...something like this. 

We have tried credit trades, debit trades, directional, non-directional, you name it. This seems to be the best way to play this "dead" market. As some point we'll get some movement. We just don't know when.

Yesterday I focused solely on the SPX that we put on last Fri. It didn't hit...again. This low vol environment with no movement it tough to trade.  We took a stab as several scalps but yesterday wasn't really a day for scalping. Here's a look at my day. 

Let's take a look at the markets: We start the day with slightly weak technicals.

Five days now of a soft market. Not really rolling over yet but a downturn could be promising for those of us who would benefit from higher premiums.

The markets are definitely in "pause" mode.  The question is, are we resting before the next push up or forming the basis to roll over?

One thing is certain. Volatility...and premiums couldn't be worse.

Prepare for a spike up...that's my advice.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.09%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.08% this morning as earnings from the nation’s retail heavyweights kicked off, shifting the focus to the strength of the American consumer.
Home Depot (HD) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after the giant home-improvement retailer reiterated its full-year guidance. However, the company reported slightly weaker-than-expected Q2 results.
Investors also assess the latest efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders concluded with a call for a summit with Russia. President Trump said he had spoken with Russian President Vladimir Putin and was working to set up a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, followed by a potential trilateral summit involving all three leaders. Zelenskyy said talks were positive and covered sensitive issues such as security guarantees, adding that he was prepared to meet with Putin bilaterally. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said that Putin has agreed to meet with Zelenskyy.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed. EQT Corp. (EQT) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Roth Capital downgraded the stock to Neutral from Buy. Also, Intel (INTC) fell more than -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration was in discussions to take a 10% stake in the company. In addition, Meta Platforms (META) dropped over -2% after the Information newsletter reported that the company is undertaking its fourth restructuring of its AI organization in the past six months. On the bullish side, Dayforce (DAY) soared over +25% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that private-equity firm Thoma Bravo was in talks to acquire the human resources management software provider. 
Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed its AA+ long-term rating for the U.S. and its A-1+ short-term rating, while maintaining a stable outlook. “The stable outlook indicates our expectation that although fiscal deficit outcomes won’t meaningfully improve, we don’t project a persistent deterioration over the next several years,” it said in a statement. The ratings agency noted it expects strong revenues from the Trump administration’s newly implemented tariff regime to help offset the anticipated fiscal deterioration stemming from recent legislative changes.
Investors face a crucial week as the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium kicks off Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, potentially providing signals on the direction of interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks on Friday, is expected to outline the central bank’s new policy framework. Mr. Powell may also provide a fresh update on how much support exists for a September rate cut, at a time when the Trump administration is intensifying pressure to begin easing.
“If the Fed is going to cut next month, expect hints out of this week’s Jackson Hole Symposium,” said Scott Wren at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 16.9% chance of no rate change at September’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, market watchers will focus on U.S. Building Permits (preliminary) and Housing Starts data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect July Building Permits to be 1.390 million and Housing Starts to be 1.290 million, compared to the prior figures of 1.393 million and 1.321 million, respectively.
Investors will also look forward to earnings reports from home improvement chain Home Depot (HD), medical device firm Medtronic (MDT), and semiconductor electronics manufacturing firm Keysight Technologies (KEYS).
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.329%, down -0.25%.

​The SPX chart with momentum scoring highlights a steady uptrend over the past few months, with prices moving from below 5,900 to consolidating near 6,450. The momentum score has remained consistently elevated, holding around 4–5 for much of July and August after recovering from a brief dip in late July.
This sustained strength suggests that near-term momentum continues to support the trend, even as price action has flattened slightly in recent sessions. From a short-term lens, the key observation is whether momentum can stay above 4 as dips in this score have historically aligned with brief pauses or retracements.
In the immediate term, the consolidation phase may signal a build-up for the next directional move, with momentum levels providing a useful gauge for potential follow-through.

Gamma is low and positive.

Quant score is turning more neutral.

6500 on /ES remains a huge gamma wall resistance area.  

Today looks to be starting our much like yesterday and the previous five days. Slow moving. Futures are slightly down but no real indication of directional movement today. We are set up for a neutral day and that's what I'm looking for. 

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels. They haven't changed much in the last five trading days.
With price action subdued, the levels are close and many.  6477, 6487, 6495, and 6500 are the closest resistance levels. 6460, 6455, 6450, 6444 are support. ​

It seems like a big goal, lately but let's see if we can get our SPX to a green finish today! I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. 

We've got FOMC minutes release on Weds. and Powell Speaking at the Jackson Hole summit at the end of the week. How will the market react? It's just speculation at this point but past Jackson Hole meeting paint an interesting picture. 

I think, after three pretty solid weeks this may be a down week for us.

I wasn't able to generate anything worthwhile on Friday. There just wasn't enough movement. 

We continue to look for movement. This consolidation phase will eventually come to an end. We already have the basis for our SPX 0DTE working for today. See below: We've got about $1,100 BP with $800 max profit potential. If we can get movement today, this may be all we need. Otherwise, we'll need to trade around it. 

Let's take a look at the markets: After a lot of bullish technicals we start today at a neutral rating. Possibly time for a reversal?

Markets look a little tired here. Is this just a pause or the start of the retace we are all looking for?

​The SPX chart highlights a steady climb toward recent highs, with the option score showing a recovery from early-August lows after briefly touching zero. Short-term momentum remains constructive, but the recent dip in the option score from 4 to 3 suggests traders are moderating their positioning after the latest push higher.
Price action is consolidating just below the 6,450 level, with buyers showing resilience after pullbacks. In the near term, keeping an eye on whether the option score stabilizes or weakens further could provide signals on the strength of participation behind this rally.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.13%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.15% this morning, starting the week on a cautious note as investors await U.S. President Donald Trump’s talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Trump will host Zelenskyy and several European leaders to outline terms for a potential peace agreement he discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin at last Friday’s meeting in Alaska. After arriving in Washington, the Ukrainian president said that Russia must bring this war to an end. Meanwhile, on Sunday night, Trump wrote on social media that the responsibility lies with Zelenskyy to make concessions, declaring there is “no getting back” Crimea and “NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE.” Bloomberg reported that while the U.S. is expected to focus on territorial concessions demanded by Russia, Kyiv will aim to secure possible security guarantees.
Investor focus this week is also on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s most important policy speech of the year at Jackson Hole, the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting, and earnings reports from retail heavyweights.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Applied Materials (AMAT) plunged over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the largest chip-equipment maker in the world provided downbeat FQ4 guidance. Also, SanDisk (SNDK) slid more than -4% after the company issued below-consensus FQ1 adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Target (TGT) fell over -1% after BofA downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $93. On the bullish side, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) jumped about +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed in a regulatory filing that it purchased about 5 million shares of the health insurer last quarter.
Economic data released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales grew +0.5% m/m in July, slightly weaker than expectations of +0.6% m/m, while core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, rose +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations. Also, U.S. July industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change m/m, while manufacturing production was unchanged m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m. At the same time, the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index unexpectedly fell to 58.6 in August, weaker than expectations of 61.9. In addition, the U.S. import price index climbed +0.4% m/m in July, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.
“Consumers are no longer bracing for the worst-case scenario for the economy feared in April. However, consumers continue to expect both inflation and unemployment to deteriorate in the future,” said Peter Boockvar, author of The Boock Report.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday he wants to see at least one more inflation report to confirm that persistent price pressures aren’t picking up. “It’s been a little mixed,” Goolsbee said in an interview on CNBC, referring to recent inflation data. “I feel like we still need another one, at least, to figure out if we’re if we’re still on the golden path.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 15.2% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
Investor attention this week will be focused on the Kansas City Fed’s annual Economic Policy Symposium, which begins Thursday evening in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Chair Jerome Powell, in remarks on Friday, is expected to outline the central bank’s new policy framework. Mr. Powell may also provide a fresh update on how much support exists for a September rate cut, at a time when the Trump administration is intensifying pressure to begin easing. Powell’s comments “are likely to be decisive in answering the question of how firmly the monetary authorities are actually heading for an interest rate cut in September,” according to strategists at LBBW. Earlier in the week, Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, as well as Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, will be making appearances.
Market watchers will also closely monitor preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys on U.S. manufacturing and services sector activity for August. They will give an up-to-date snapshot of how tariffs have impacted both activity and prices. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Existing Home Sales, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index.
Retailers Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), TJX (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), and Ross Stores (ROST), along with notable tech players such as Intuit (INTU), Analog Devices (ADI), Workday (WDAY), and Keysight Technologies (KEYS), are among the prominent companies set to release their quarterly results this week.
In addition, market participants will pay close attention to the publication of the Fed’s minutes from the July 29-30 meeting on Wednesday, which will provide insight into the Fed’s stance on interest rates and the economy and could shed more light on the decision by Fed Governors Waller and Bowman to support a rate cut.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.294%, down -0.76%.

Let's take a look at the expected moves for the week:

It's hard to imagine I.V. getting any lower than it is. These are levels we rarely see and hope we don't see for very long. It puts us in a difficult spot for day trading. The premium received on a credit trade is just horrible and created very poor risk/reward. Debits however are relatively cheap BUT...you need movement to make them work and we aren't getting that. I'll stick with debit focus for now because I have to if I want to keep a decent risk/reward but man...we need some movement. 

​The Nasdaq is now worth 145% of ALL the money in America (M2). That’s the highest level in history. Each one was followed by a major market swing.

Again...I know all my thoughts lately are dour. I'm not a perm bear. I try to be a critical thinker but all I'm seeing are warning signs.

My lean or bias today is neutral. Until we get some catalyst that pushes us directionally there is just too low of volume and too little action to make a directional bias with confidence. 

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly! We missed our training session on Thurs. We'll make sure and get it in today. 

The /ES is coiled tightly around the 6500 level. I battled it for two days with SPX 0DTE's and didn't get a directional move either days. Futures have been a bit higher and lower this morning but I believe this is the battle zone today. Below is bearish. Above is bullish. The real question I have is when will we get a move? You have to pick a directional bias to place trades and sometimes you're right...sometimes you're wrong. That's how it goes but what is really confusing to me is the tight range we are stuck in. A move will be incoming at some point so let's be patient and wait our turn. Here's my results from yesterday. 

I won't go over all the intra-day levels this morning as they are EXACTLY the same as yesterday but I do want to detail the 6500 level. This is the line in the sand. Will we get a substantive move today? That's really my only question.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.17% this morning, bolstered by continued hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, while investors await U.S. retail sales data and high-stakes talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Tapestry (TPR) plunged over -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the fashion-brand company issued below-consensus FY26 EPS guidance. Also, Deere & Company (DE) slumped more than -6% after the agricultural and construction equipment maker cut the upper end of its full-year net income guidance. In addition, Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell over -1% after the computer networking company gave a cautious full-year forecast. On the bullish side, Eli Lilly (LLY) rose over +3% after the drugmaker announced it would raise the list price of its Mounjaro weight-loss treatment in the U.K. by as much as 170%.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y in July, much stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.9% m/m and +3.7% y/y in July, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -3K to 224K, compared with the 225K expected.
“This doesn’t slam the door on a September rate cut, but based on the market’s initial reaction, the opening may be a little smaller than it was a couple of days ago,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday that it is still too soon for him to determine whether to support an interest rate cut at next month’s meeting. Asked whether a 50 basis point cut could be warranted next month, Musalem said that, in his view, such a move would be “unsupported by the current state of the economy and the outlook for the economy.” Also, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that she is not in favor of a 50 basis point rate cut at the September meeting, saying that “would send off an urgency signal that I don’t feel about the strength of the labor market.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 7.4% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in September.
Investors await a meeting later today in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the war in Ukraine. Trump cautioned there would be “very harsh consequences” if Putin failed to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine, while suggesting the possibility of a follow-up meeting that could include Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some European leaders. Meanwhile, Putin looked to strengthen his relationship with Trump ahead of their summit, commending the U.S. leader’s attempts to mediate an end to the war in Ukraine and offering the prospect of economic cooperation along with a new arms control agreement.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that Retail Sales will show a +0.6% m/m rise in July, the same as the previous month.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which rose +0.5% m/m in June. Economists expect the July figure to be +0.3% m/m.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be closely monitored today. Economists forecast that the preliminary August figure will stand at 61.9, compared to 61.7 in July.
U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be released today. Economists expect Industrial Production to be unchanged m/m and Manufacturing Production to drop -0.1% m/m in July, compared to the June figures of +0.3% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively.
The Empire State Manufacturing Index will be reported today. Economists foresee the Empire State manufacturing index standing at -1.20 in August, compared to last month’s value of 5.50.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes will be released today as well. Economists anticipate the export price index to rise +0.1% m/m and the import price index to rise +0.1% m/m in July, compared to the previous figures of +0.5% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.289%, down -0.09%.

I look forward to trading with you all today! We've got a good start today with our Gold 0DTE. Let's see what else we can produce!

Market prognosticators are betting on a near certain rate cut come Sept. after a mild CPI. PPI will either confirm or deny that today but most market watchers think this should be enough data for the FED to take action. 
We didn't get any scalps working yesterday and our SPX was rolled to today so we only had our Theta fairy and Gold 0DTE to show for our efforts. Still...all in all, not a bad day. See our results below.  

Our SPX debit will be our key starting point today. It a bullish debit with two different tranches. It's got plenty of profit potential if we push higher. That would make for an easy day. If we drop we'll need to do some hedging.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.02%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -0.08% this morning, taking a breather after recent gains, while investors look ahead to crucial U.S. producer inflation data for insight into how aggressively the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates.
Today’s PPI data “could be make or break to cement a 25 basis-point rate cut from the Fed, or even to encourage the possibility of a jumbo cut,” said Andrea Gabellone, head of global equities at KBC Securities.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Chip stocks climbed amid growing expectations for Fed rate cuts, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising over +5% and NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) gaining more than +4%. Also, Amazon.com (AMZN) advanced over +1% after announcing plans to expand its same-day grocery delivery service to 2,300 cities by the end of the year. In addition, Intapp (INTA) surged more than +15% after the AI cloud company posted upbeat FQ4 results and announced a $150 million stock buyback. On the bearish side, CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbled more than -20% after the AI cloud vendor reported a wider-than-expected Q2 loss.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the central bank’s meetings this fall will be “live,” as he and his colleagues work to interpret mixed economic data and determine how best to adjust interest rates in response. “As we go into the fall, these are going to be some live meetings and we’re going to have to figure it out,” Goolsbee said. At the same time, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he still considers one interest rate cut appropriate in 2025 if the labor market remains solid.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at September’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. July PPI will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y, compared to the previous figures of unchanged m/m and +2.3% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect July figures to be +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y, compared to June’s numbers of unchanged m/m and +2.6% y/y.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 225K, compared to last week’s number of 226K.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Applied Materials (AMAT) and Deere & Company (DE) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.209%, down -0.68%.

I will present this without comment.

There's not a lot to find out there that makes this market look cheap.

Technicals still look bullish. 

Markets continue to hold these nose bleed levels.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly! 

CPI came in below expectations and all bets are on now for a Sept. rate cut. PPI comes in tomorrow so there's still a bit of a potential overhang but it's looking clearer and clearer. Markets like it and the bullish bias is building.
I had a losing day yesterday. I worked debits all day which means you have to be "right" and while I was right in the afternoon I wasn't right in the morning and the gains didn't cancel out the losses. Debits still seem the best approach for today. Here's a look at my day:

We've got some FED speak today but most traders are looking towards tomorrows PPI. 
September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.24% this morning, extending yesterday’s gains as growing expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts fueled risk-on sentiment.
U.S. inflation data for July showed a modest increase in goods prices, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will resume rate cuts next month and move more aggressively to protect a labor market showing signs of strain. The data was accompanied by remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who suggested that the U.S. central bank should be open to a 50 basis-point rate cut in September. Optimism over a softer rate stance is further supported by easing global trade tensions and a much stronger-than-expected second-quarter earnings season in the U.S.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed sharply higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Meta Platforms (META) rising over +3% and Microsoft (MSFT) gaining more than +1%. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) climbing over +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and ON Semiconductor (ON) rising more than +6%. In addition, airline stocks surged after oil prices declined, with United Airlines (UAL) jumping over +10% to lead gainers in the S&P 500. On the bearish side, Cardinal Health (CAH) slumped more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the drug distributor posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 revenue and announced it had agreed to acquire Solaris Health for $1.9 billion in cash.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Tuesday showed that consumer prices rose +0.2% m/m in July, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation rose +2.7% in July, the same as the previous month and slightly weaker than expectations of +2.8%. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in July, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y.
“Inflation is on the rise, but it didn’t increase as much as some people feared. In the short term, markets will likely embrace these numbers because they should allow the Fed to focus on labor-market weakness and keep a September rate cut on the table,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Tuesday that uncertainty about the U.S. economy’s trajectory is easing, but it remains unclear whether the central bank should place greater focus on curbing inflation or supporting the labor market. “We may well see pressure on inflation, and we may also see pressure on unemployment, but the balance between the two is still unclear. As the visibility continues to improve, we are well-positioned to adjust our policy stance as needed,” Barkin said. At the same time, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said he supports holding interest rates steady for now to prevent strong economic activity from adding to inflation pressures. “With the economy still showing momentum, growing business optimism, and inflation still stuck above our objective, retaining a modestly restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate for the time being,” Schmid said. He added that he is prepared to shift his stance if demand growth begins “weakening significantly.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 96.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 3.8% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
Today, investors will hear perspectives from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
On the earnings front, network infrastructure provider Cisco Systems (CSCO) is set to report its FQ4 earnings results today.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data, which is set to be released later in the day. Economists expect this figure to be -0.900M, compared to last week’s value of -3.029M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.256%, down -1.21%.

My lean or bias today is bullish.

We've got new ATH's across the board!

​It's official: The top 10% largest US stocks now reflect a record 76% of the US equity market. This has officially surpassed the previous record set before the Great Depression in the 1930s. By comparison, at the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble peak, the top 10%'s share was at ~73%. In the 1980s, this figure was below 50%. Meanwhile, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now represent a record 40% of the index’s market cap. We are witnessing history.

Is the market about to correct? My official stance is "who knows?" but... I can say, at these levels its probably a  good idea to have a downside hedge.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's get a win today!

"Inflation watch" week is always big with CPI then PPI but this week seems bigger. The FED is closer than they've been all year to a possible rate cut and this weeks numbers could be key to either making that a reality or pushing it off for another time. We'll have the numbers shortly. We are working a long vol Theta fairy going into the open. 

Our day yesterday was lovely....with the exception (again) of the NDX. I clearly need a different approach with the NDX vs. the SPX. It's the one category that is dragging down our otherwise good year. Every other strategy we work is producing results. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.06%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.02% this morning as investors refrained from making big bets ahead of key U.S. inflation data that could reshape expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order delaying hefty tariffs on Chinese imports through November 10th, stabilizing trade relations between the world’s two largest economies. China’s commerce ministry confirmed the move hours after Trump’s announcement, stating that the truce would be extended until mid-November. Still, some investors and analysts cautioned that the extension of the trade truce could prolong uncertainty and create a more persistent risk to inflation, complicating the outlook for Fed policymakers.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the red. Monday.com (MNDY) plummeted over -29% after the software company issued weak Q3 revenue guidance. Also, C3.ai (AI) tumbled more than -25% after the AI software company posted downbeat preliminary FQ1 results. In addition, Adobe (ADBE) fell over -2% after Melius Research downgraded the stock to Sell from Hold with a $310 price target. On the bullish side, TKO Group Holdings (TKO) surged more than +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Paramount Skydance agreed to pay more than $7 billion to make the newly formed media giant the exclusive distributor of the UFC.
Meanwhile, President Trump named EJ Antoni, chief economist at the conservative Heritage Foundation, to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics after firing the agency’s former head earlier this month.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report will provide an opportunity to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation amid a cooling labor market. The recent U.S. ISM services PMI showed an unexpected increase in the prices paid sub-index, serving as a reminder that “inflation is still a force to be reckoned with,” according to Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. July CPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y in July, compared to the June figures of +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that only 18% of investors expect a “risk-on” market reaction to the CPI report, while 43% anticipate a “mixed” response and 39% foresee a “risk-off” reaction.
“The market’s reaction to any surprises in the numbers could be exaggerated — especially if a significantly hotter-than-expected CPI print leads traders to believe the Fed may not cut rates at its next meeting,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 15.5% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.
Market participants will also parse comments today from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Sea Limited (SE), CoreWeave (CRWV), Cardinal Health (CAH), and Circle (CRCL) are scheduled to report their quarterly figures today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.276%, down -0.21%.

With CPI today I won't start with a bias or lean. I'll just focus on price action.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room. CPI days are usually pretty good to us!

The market had a solid result last week, pushing higher. One of the concerning aspects of this recent push up is the lower volume we're getting. There's not much enthusiasm in the move but a move higher is still, a move higher.
We weren't able to generate much success Friday. I had both the SPX and NDX in the profit zone but by the time I could log a profit on NDX the SPX slipped away. It was still a good setup day. We have over $2,000 in potential profits and risk was in check most of the day. With low I.V. the debit trades seem to be the best focus. Even when we get little movement. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets: The bullish bias continues.

​The upcoming Alaska meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump is already being framed as a strategic win for Moscow, even before discussions begin.
It marks Putin’s first invitation to meet a U.S. president on American soil since 2007, without conditions or Ukrainian and European participation a setup that Kyiv views warily. The talks come as Russia advances militarily in Ukraine’s south and east, with economic pressures mounting at home from sanctions, falling energy revenues, and persistent inflation.
Moscow is expected to push for immediate sanctions relief and territorial concessions in exchange for a ceasefire, while signaling interest in joint economic ventures in Alaska and the Arctic. Markets have reacted positively to the prospect of negotiations, with European and U.S. equities gaining, though defense stocks dipped on speculation that peace could slow NATO-related spending.
However, analysts note that defense names could benefit regardless of the outcome either from continued arms replenishment if talks fail or from sustained procurement needs even in a post-agreement environment. Gold prices slipped about 1% as geopolitical risk perceptions eased slightly.
The outcome of Friday’s meeting remains uncertain, with Trump balancing pressure over sanctions against his stated interest in brokering a peace deal.

​Despite weak earnings from $AMD, the QQQ led the major indexes, pushing to all-time highs and closing the week at $574.55 (+3.73%). It fell below the 8/21 EMA cloud on Monday’s gap down, but found support at the RSI midpoint and quickly reclaimed the cloud, keeping bullish momentum intact. With names like $PLTR and $MSFT flashing on the power gap scan, tech stocks remain king in this market.

Let's take a look at this weeks expected moves with CPI and PPI coming out. You can see, it's not much better than last week and we blew through last weeks expected move by more than 100%. Debits seem to be the way to go here.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.09%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.05% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as investors await key U.S. economic data, especially the inflation report, and a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
Financial markets found some reassurance in renewed diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war, with Trump and Putin preparing to meet in Alaska on Friday. The weekend saw intense diplomacy between U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials, including meetings in the U.K. with U.S. Vice President JD Vance and British Foreign Secretary David Lammy. Still, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has maintained his refusal to cede territory occupied by Russia.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed higher, with the S&P 500 posting a 1-week high and the Nasdaq 100 notching a new record high. Gilead Sciences (GILD) climbed over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the biopharmaceutical giant posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. Also, Monster Beverage (MNST) gained more than +6% after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS. In addition, Expedia (EXPE) rose over +4% after the travel booking company posted stronger-than-expected Q2 results and raised its full-year gross bookings guidance. On the bearish side, Trade Desk (TTD) plummeted more than -38% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the ad-tech company issued weak Q3 revenue guidance and announced that CFO Laura Schenkein will be replaced by Alex Kayyal.
St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Friday that he backed policymakers’ recent decision to keep interest rates unchanged, adding that the central bank remains further from meeting the inflation side of its mandate. “Given the economy where it stands today, it seemed appropriate to maintain the policy rate at a constant for now,” Musalem said. He also said the most likely outcome is that the price effects from tariffs will be temporary, but added there is a “reasonable probability” they could prove more persistent. At the same time, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Saturday that she favors three interest rate cuts this year. “With economic growth slowing this year and signs of a less dynamic labor market becoming clear, I see it as appropriate to begin gradually moving our moderately restrictive policy stance toward a neutral setting,” Bowman said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 11.6% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting next month.
The U.S. consumer inflation report for July will be the main highlight this week. The recent U.S. ISM services PMI showed an unexpected increase in the prices paid sub-index, serving as a reminder that “inflation is still a force to be reckoned with,” according to Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG. Citi economists said investors will be watching to gauge the extent to which tariffs are impacting prices after June’s report showed “early signs of larger increases in goods prices.” Investors will also monitor July retail sales data for clues on how tariffs are impacting consumers. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. PPI, the Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, the Export Price Index, the Import Price Index, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary).
Second-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Circle (CRCL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a 9.1% increase in Q2 profits from a year earlier, well above analysts’ forecast of 2.8%.
Market participants will also hear perspectives from several Fed officials, including Barkin, Schmid, Goolsbee, and Bostic, throughout the week.
In addition, investors will closely watch for any further updates on U.S. tariff plans for specific sectors. Last week, President Trump said that U.S. tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports would be announced “within the next week or so.” While some clarity was provided on chip tariffs last week, investors will be particularly eager for further updates on tariffs targeting the pharmaceutical sector.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.258%, down -0.58%.

My bias or lean today is more neutral. Futures are slightly green, as I type. We've got CPI and PPI later this week, which will likely be the main drivers for the market. We'll look at levels in a moment. If we can break either level we could get some movement.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!

Most of you who trade with us know that we have a daily income goal of $1,000 dollars and our Gold 0DTE's generally can bring in 10-20% of that so it's frustrating when we can't  get a setup working. Last night was NOT that! We got plenty of premium out of todays setup.

Yesterday was a solid day for us. Debits all day long. I gave back a lot on the SPX setup but it still ended up well.

Let's take a look at the markets:  We start the day with a bullish lean but the price action doesn't look that impressive.

My lean or bias today is bearish. I think we get a drawdown. Futures are up as I type.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.32% this morning, capping a week dominated by tariff and geopolitical developments, as well as a wave of earnings, with investors weighing U.S. President Donald Trump’s efforts to tighten his grip on the Federal Reserve.
Gold futures in New York jumped after a Financial Times report said that U.S. imports of one-kilogram bullion bars are now subject to tariffs, posing a threat to trade flows from Switzerland and other major refining hubs. The most-active contract rose to a record intraday high above $3,534 an ounce.
Late Thursday, President Trump said he had selected Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Stephen Miran to serve as a Fed governor. Mr. Trump said that Miran, who must be confirmed by the Senate, would serve only the remainder of Adriana Kugler’s term, which ends in January.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed. Fortinet (FTNT) plummeted over -22% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the cybersecurity firm was hit with multiple downgrades and price target cuts following the release of its Q2 results and guidance. Also, Eli Lilly (LLY) plunged more than -14% after the drugmaker reported disappointing data on its new weight-loss pill. In addition, Caterpillar (CAT) fell over -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $350. On the bullish side, chip stocks climbed after President Trump said firms that relocate production to the U.S. will be exempt from the proposed 100% tariff on chip imports, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising more than +5% and Lam Research (LRCX) gaining over +3%.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by 7K to 226K, compared with the 221K expected. Also, U.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity rose +2.4% q/q, stronger than expectations of +1.9% q/q, and unit labor costs rose +1.6% q/q, in line with expectations. In addition, U.S. consumer credit rose by $7.37 billion in June, weaker than expectations of $7.40 billion.
“With the jobless claims beginning to rise again, this adds to concerns about the employment picture that were raised last week,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak + Co.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Thursday that he still sees one rate cut as likely this year, and reiterated that there are reasons to doubt that the inflationary effects from tariffs will be short-lived. “This question about whether tariffs are a one-time thing, or whether they’re going to be more persistent in their effects and might even cause structural changes, I think is perhaps the most important question that we have today,” Bostic said.
In other news, Bloomberg reported that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate to become the central bank’s chair among President Trump’s advisers as they seek a successor to Jerome Powell.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.6% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will focus on a speech from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.249%, down -0.16%.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels in /ES.  
​Quant score is more neutral.

Negative gamma. We could get some movement.

Let's finish strong today folks. See you all in the live trading room!

Not to beat a dead horse but valuations are up there. We continue to look for opportunities to build bearish setups in our ATM portfolio. 
​Yesterday was a focused effort for us on SPX and NDX 0DTE's and that paid off. See our results below:

Let's take a look at the market. 
​Yesterday was a largely bullish day for the indices. 

Negative gamma to start the day: 

Quant score is improving. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.81%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.78% this morning as U.S. President Donald Trump’s 100% tariff threat on chip exporters included exemptions for firms investing in the U.S., while hopes for a truce in Russia’s war with Ukraine further boosted sentiment.
President Trump announced late Wednesday a roughly 100% tariff on semiconductors entering the U.S., but noted that tech firms like Apple investing in domestic manufacturing would be exempt from the duties. Mr. Trump said that “if you’re building in the United States of America, there’s no charge.” Also aiding sentiment, the Kremlin confirmed that Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin are set to hold summit talks in the coming days, fueling hopes for a potential truce in Russia’s war with Ukraine. Increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in September is also buoying sentiment as U.S. reciprocal tariffs took effect against dozens of countries a minute past midnight Washington time on Thursday. In a social-media post, Mr. Trump said, “Billions of dollars in tariffs are now flowing into the United States of America.”
Investors now look ahead to U.S. jobless claims data for further insight into the health of the labor market.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher. Apple (AAPL) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow following reports that the tech titan is set to announce a fresh $100 billion investment in the U.S. in an effort to avoid steep tariffs on iPhones. Also, Arista Networks (ANET) surged more than +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and issued solid Q3 revenue guidance. In addition, Shopify (SHOP) soared over +21% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results. On the bearish side, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plummeted more than -18% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the AI server maker reported downbeat FQ4 results and provided disappointing FQ1 guidance.
“There are a lot of narratives to keep track of in today’s investing environment, but earnings remain the main catalyst for stocks. While pullbacks are possible — particularly due to macro-related influences and poor seasonality trends — those pullbacks will likely prove to be buying opportunities,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday that a slowing of the U.S. economy could warrant an interest rate cut in the near term, and he still sees two cuts by the end of the year. Also, Fed Governor Lisa Cook described the July jobs report as “concerning” and suggested it may mark a turning point for the U.S. economy. “These revisions are somewhat typical of turning points,” Cook said. In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that policymakers will likely need to adjust interest rates in the coming months to prevent further labor market weakness.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 6.8% chance of no rate change at September’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 221K, compared to last week’s number of 218K.
U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity preliminary data will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast Q2 Unit Labor Costs to be +1.6% q/q and Nonfarm Productivity to be +1.9% q/q, compared to the first-quarter numbers of +6.6% q/q and -1.5% q/q, respectively.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today. Economists expect the final June figure to be +0.2% m/m, compared to -0.3% m/m in May.
U.S. Consumer Credit data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be $7.40 billion in June, compared to the previous figure of $5.10 billion.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Eli Lilly (LLY), Gilead (GILD), ConocoPhillips (COP), Constellation Energy (CEG), Vistra Energy (VST), and Monster Beverage (MNST) are set to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a 9.1% increase in Q2 profits from a year earlier, well above analysts’ forecast of 2.8%.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.215%, down -0.35%.

My bias or lean today is neutral to bearish. Futures are up a healthy .70%  I don't think we hold these levels today. 

Let's take a look at our intra-day /ES levels:

Let's have a great day folks. See you in the live trading room shortly.