Market analysis for Sept. 24th, 2024

Welcome back traders! A little technical challenge so todays blog will be short. I'l put up our intra-day levels in the trading room. We had a stellar day yesterday. Not an "excellent" day though. Our net liq was hurt with the push in Nat gas but everything we traded intra-day worked. See our results below.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.21%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.30% this morning as global risk sentiment got a boost after Beijing announced one of its most aggressive economic stimulus packages since the pandemic.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed in the green. Tesla (TSLA) climbed nearly +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Barclays said it expects the company’s Q3 deliveries to exceed consensus estimates, which could drive continued stock strength. Also, Intel (INTC) advanced more than +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Bloomberg reported that Apollo Global Management had offered to make a multibillion-dollar investment in the chipmaker. In addition, Walmart (WMT) gained over +1% after Melius Research LLC initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $95. On the bearish side, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after a federal judge in West Virginia rejected the company’s motion for a temporary injunction against Amgen, which recently received FDA approval for the biosimilar eye drug Pavblu.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 47.0 in September, weaker than expectations of 48.6 and the steepest pace of contraction in 15 months. Also, the U.S. September S&P Global services PMI fell to 55.4, better than expectations of 55.3.
“This is a somewhat inconclusive report, and therefore it shouldn’t alter Fed expectations dramatically,” said Adam Crisafulli at Vital Knowledge. “The flash PMIs do suggest the U.S. economy is on reasonably sound footing, especially compared to Europe.”
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Monday that interest rates need to be reduced “significantly” to protect the U.S. labor market and bolster the economy. “As we’ve gained confidence that we are on the path back to 2%, it’s appropriate to increase our focus on the other side of the Fed’s mandate -  to think about risks to employment,” Goolsbee said. “That likely means many more rate cuts over the next year.” Also, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that he anticipates lowering interest rates by smaller, quarter-point moves at each of the central bank’s two remaining meetings this year. “As we go forward, I expect, on balance, we will probably take smaller steps unless the data changes materially,” Kashkari said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 49.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 50.9% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the November FOMC meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the September CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 103.9, compared to last month’s figure of 103.3.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., which arrived at +6.5% y/y in June. Economists foresee the July figure to be +5.9% y/y.
The U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to come in at -13 in September, compared to the previous value of -19.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.791%, up +1.38%.

Trade docket for today: /MNQ, QQQ scalps, /NG, /ZC?, AZO?, IWM, KBH, SPY/QQQ 3DTE, 0DTE's.

My lean or bias today continues to be bullish:

See you all in the trading room! Let's try to replicate our success from yesterday!