Market analysis for Sept. 20th, 2024

Welcome to Friday folks. Well...what a day yesterday. Those types of openings are so rare. Some setups are more apparent than others and yesterday was a pretty high conviction day for me. We had another "excellent" day with our day trades making money and our net liq up nicely on the day. Our results are below. Note: The scalping looks good but the covers are for Monday so they aren't realized yet and not included in the totals and we have two earnings plays from yesterday that aren't realized yet either. 

Markets are in full blown buy mode after yesterdays monster gains 

Most of the major indices have pushed to new ATH's with the QQQ's still lagging a bit. 

Trade docket for today: I don't think we'll do much with the /MNQ scalp. I may add a bit to it for Monday's exp. /ZC (corn) cover is done today! That should be a nice win. FDX and LEN earnings plays will be worked today. IWM, QQQ's should be a big winner for us today. We'll look to add to the put side. All 0DTE's again.

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are down -0.29%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are down -0.45% this morning as disappointing earnings results from global economic bellwether FedEx dampened optimism surrounding the outlook for interest rates, while investors geared up for the so-called triple-witching event later in the day.
FedEx (FDX) plunged over -13% in pre-market trading after the delivery services giant reported weaker-than-expected Q1 adjusted EPS and cut its full-year guidance.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow notching new all-time highs and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rising to a 2-month high. Darden Restaurants (DRI) surged over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 as the announcement of a delivery partnership between its Olive Garden restaurant chain and Uber overshadowed weaker-than-expected Q1 results. Also, megacap technology stocks rallied, with Tesla (TSLA) climbing more than +7% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Apple (AAPL) advancing over +3%. In addition, chip stocks gained ground, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Applied Materials (AMAT) rising more than +5%. On the bearish side, Steelcase (SCS) slumped over -5% after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and provided below-consensus Q3 revenue guidance.
“Despite some volatility after the Fed’s rate cut, the S&P 500’s bullish trend remains intact,” said Fawad Razaqzada at City Index and Forex.com. “The Fed’s decision to deliver a 50-basis point rate cut was largely welcomed by investors. The move was seen as a bold but necessary step to ease economic concerns without sending panic signals reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis.”
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 1.7 in September, stronger than expectations of -0.8. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -12K to a 4-month low of 219K, stronger than expectations of 230K. In addition, the U.S. leading indicator index fell -0.2% m/m in August, a smaller decline than expectations of -0.3% m/m. At the same time, U.S. existing home sales fell -2.5% m/m to a 10-month low of 3.86M in August, weaker than expectations of 3.92M.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 59.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 40.9% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in November.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is preparing for a quarterly event known as triple witching, during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. About $5.1 trillion worth of options tied to individual stocks, indexes, and exchange-traded funds are set to expire today, according to an estimate from derivatives analytical firm Asym 500. 
“Triple-witching will likely inject more volatility into the market - we just don’t know which direction,” said Matt Thompson, co-portfolio manager at Little Harbor Advisors.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will likely focus on a speech from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.708%, down -0.03%.

Let's take a look at the intra-day 0DTE levels:
​/ES: New ATH's on the /ES. Key level for bulls today is to break above yesterdays high. That's the focus for today.

/NQ: Same focus on /NQ. Watch for a breakout above yesterdays highs for the next trigger.

BTC: Bitcoin had a run yesterday, along with equities. We've had a $4,000 dollar push up over the last few weeks. It may be getting a little tired here. 64,067 is resistanceand 62,885 is support. 

Let's have a great finish to the week folks. I hope you have a great weekend!