Market analysis for Oct. 1st, 2024

Welcome to a new month traders! We finished off the month strong! We've been on a nice run lately. Check out our results below.

We've had a stellar few weeks. It's a nice feeling. It wasn't that long ago that we had three losing days in a row. That's a whole different feeling. Emotions are such a big part of trading.

Bullish bias is still in place.
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Markets are still hanging around their ATH's.

​83% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day average

​73.6% of S&P 500 Stocks are within 10% of their 52-week Highs... This is the highest level since July 2021

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.13%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.06% this morning as investors awaited the latest reading on U.S. job openings, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from the world’s largest shoemaker Nike.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green. Apple (AAPL) rose over +2% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after JPMorgan Chase noted that lead times for the latest iPhone indicate that initially slower demand for Pro models was “starting to correct.” Also, CVS Health (CVS) gained more than +2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that hedge fund Glenview Capital Management is scheduled to meet with CVS Health’s top executives to suggest operational improvements. In addition, FedEx (FDX) advanced over +2%, and United Parcel Service (UPS) rose more than +1% after Stifel stated that the companies are the “most obvious beneficiaries” of extended disruption due to an impending port workers’ strike. On the bearish side, Boeing (BA) fell over -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the machinists union announced that negotiations to resolve the strike with the company had collapsed, with no further talks scheduled. Also, chip stocks came under pressure as Treasury yields climbed, with Micron Technology (MU) slumping more than -3% and On Semiconductor (ON) falling over -2%.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the Chicago PMI unexpectedly edged up to 46.6 in September, stronger than expectations of 46.1.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that the central bank will reduce interest rates “over time” while reiterating that the overall economy continues to be on solid footing. Powell also reaffirmed his belief that inflation will keep moving toward the central bank’s 2% target, adding that current economic conditions “set the table” for a continued easing of price pressures. At the same time, he noted that the U.S. did not yet have the data necessary to make a decision regarding the November meeting. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated he would be open to another half-percentage-point interest rate cut at the November meeting if forthcoming data indicate job growth is slowing more rapidly than anticipated. “A surprise to the weak side .... would pull me much further into really needing another dramatic move,” Bostic said in an interview with Reuters.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 64.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 35.3% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s November meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Nike (NKE), Paychex (PAYX), and McCormick & Co. (MKC) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the August JOLTs Job Openings will stand at 7.640M, compared to July’s figure of 7.673M.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI, which stood at 47.2 in August. Economists foresee the September figure to be 47.6.
The U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will come in today. Economists expect September’s figure to be 47.0, compared to 47.9 in August.
U.S. Construction Spending data will be reported today as well. Economists foresee this figure to stand at +0.2% m/m in August, compared to the previous number of -0.3% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.750%, down -1.57%.

Trade docket for today: /ES (theta fairy), /MNQ,QQQ scalps, /NG, /ZC, FDX, LW/NWL, MRK/MRNA, SPY, 2 new pairs trades, 0DTE's NKE, LW.

Let's look at intra-day 0DTE levels:
​/ES; 5822 is the first resistance with 5830 being the big one. It's our ATH. 5797 is first support and 5788 the next which is also the PoC on the 2hr. chart.

/NQ: 20331 is the first resistance and 20438 is the next. Support is 20213 which is PoC on 2hr. chart with 20159 as the next.

Bitcoin: BTC has had a nice run but looks to be rolling over a bit. 65117 is current resistance with 63045 is support.

Let's have a great day folks! See you in the trading room.