Market analysis for Oct. 17th, 2025

Make volatility great again!

How awesome was yesterday? I've always said, all we want as traders is movement. If I'm being picky I'd like that movement to be to the downside. Bigger moves. Better I.V. etc. That's exactly what we got yesterday. We a perfect trading environment. Our ATM portfolio cash flowed nicely. Scalping was pure heaven and we were able to put some very small risk SPX 0DTE's on that cash flowed well.  Here's a look at our day:

Let's take a look at the market. Technicals aren't much help flashing neutral. 

Is the current weakness enough to call this a bearish trend? That might be a bit much but weakness does seem to have it's grasp on the indices. We continue to add shorts and bearish protection to our ATM portfolio.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending down -0.25% this morning, paring earlier losses after U.S. President Donald Trump moved to ease concerns over a trade war with China.
President Trump told reporters on Friday that current tariffs on China were “not sustainable” and confirmed plans to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea in the coming weeks.
S&P 500 futures initially dropped as much as 1.5% amid worries about the health of regional U.S. banks. Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp said on Thursday that they were victims of suspected fraud involving loans linked to troubled property funds. Analysts said they believe these issues are likely isolated events, but investors remain especially sensitive to signs of stress in the sector following the 2023 collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. This adds to a growing list of investor concerns, including the U.S. government shutdown, fears of an AI bubble, and escalating U.S.-China trade tensions.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed lower. Zions Bancorp (ZION) sank over -13% after disclosing a $50 million charge-off tied to a loan issued by its wholly owned subsidiary, California Bank & Trust, in San Diego. Also, Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL) plunged more than -10% after the lender said it filed a lawsuit in August against one of its borrowers, alleging fraud. In addition, Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) slumped over -10% after the server and cloud company provided disappointing FY26 guidance. On the bullish side, J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) soared more than +22% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the logistics company posted better-than-expected Q3 results.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index fell to a 6-month low of -12.8 in October, weaker than expectations of 8.6.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that policymakers can continue lowering interest rates in quarter-point steps to bolster the weakening labor market. “You don’t want to make a mistake, so the way to avoid that is to go cautiously or carefully and do 25, wait and see what happens, and then you can get a better idea of what to do,” Waller said. At the same time, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he would support a half-percentage-point rate cut this month and reiterated that trade tensions heighten economic uncertainty and amplify downside risks to growth.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said he remains “sanguine” about the outlook for both employment and inflation. “The ground may look shaky today, but I just think there are good reasons to think there are countervailing forces that will limit the downside,” Barkin said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown continues, with no serious negotiations taking place. In light of the government shutdown, the publication of September industrial production data, originally set for today, will be delayed. Although the data is compiled by the Fed, the central bank said it would delay the release, as it relies on key inputs from other federal agencies affected by the shutdown, such as the Census Bureau.
Today, investors will focus on a speech from St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem.
On the earnings front, notable companies like American Express (AXP), Truist Financial (TFC), SLB N.V. (SLB), and State Street (STT) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, marking the smallest rise in two years.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.956%, down -0.48%.

​Gold is Up 9 weeks in a row. Gold has never gone up 10 weeks in a row before.

When you see a squeeze outside the Bollinger bands that's this big, well...you know what to do.

Almost a 1% expected move on SPX today. Get your scalping trades ready!

Our "Short MSTY, Long BTC" trade continues to pour in the profits. One nice thing about frothy markets at ATH's is you can always find some "piece o crap" scam that is just waiting to be shorted. I'm so grateful none of our trading members got sucking into the ridiculous MSTY. Knowledge is power.  Our trade is up over 55% YTD. 

Let's take a look at the intraday levels on /ES: 6677, 6687, 6700* (big level), 6705, 6724 are resistance levels. 6650, 6636, 6631, 6621, 6603 are support levels. 

We had a great day yesterday with all the movement. Today has a good shot at giving us some good opportunities as well. Let's do our best to capitalize on them! See you in the live trading room shortly.