Market analysis for Oct. 15th, 2024

Welcome back traders! We had an O.K. day yesterday. Most of our 0DTE's turned out well but my net liq ended down, just slightly on the day. There were too many hot spots in the model portfolio to overcome. It looks like we've got a good start to the day with our futures positions. Here's our results from yesterday. JNJ, BAC and UNH won't be know until the cash open.

Markets are still bullish:

My bias is bullish...again. Everything points that way...until it doesn't.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are trending down -0.03% this morning as investors looked ahead to quarterly reports from more big banks while also awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow notching new all-time highs and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posting a 2-3/4 month high. Vistra Corp. (VST) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Exane BNP Paribas initiated coverage of the stock with an Outperform rating and a price target of $231. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Arm (ARM) rising more than +6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Marvell Technology (MRVL) advancing nearly +5%. In addition, Apple (AAPL) rose over +1% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Evercore ISI added the stock to its “Tactical Outperform” list ahead of earnings. On the bearish side, Caterpillar (CAT) fell more than -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $332.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated Monday that “further modest reductions” in the federal funds rate appear likely to be appropriate in the coming quarters. “Ultimately, the path ahead for policy will be driven by the actual economic, inflation, and labor market data,” Kashkari said. Also, Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that recent economic data indicate policymakers can approach subsequent rate cuts with less urgency than they did at their last month’s meeting. “I view the totality of the data as saying monetary policy should proceed with more caution on the pace of rate cuts than was needed at the September meeting,” Waller said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 13.2% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s November meeting.
On the earnings front, major U.S. banks such as Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Citigroup (C) are scheduled to release their quarterly results today. UnitedHealth (UNH), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Charles Schwab (SCHW), and United Airlines (UAL) are other prominent companies set to deliver their quarterly updates today.
According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.3% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, down from +7.9% growth projected in mid-July.
“The third quarter earnings season has begun, and while expectations have tempered since earlier in the year, the corporate sector remains strong, with ample buffers given elevated profit margins and strong balance sheets,” said Principal Asset Management.
On the economic data front, investors will likely focus on the NY Empire State manufacturing index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the October NY Empire State manufacturing index will stand at 3.40, compared to last month’s value of 11.50.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.072%, down -1.29%.

Trade docket could be busy today: /MCL, /MNQ, /ETH, /BTC, /NG, /ZC, BAC, FANG, ORCL, QQQ, DJT, JNJ, UNH, CCI?, DIA, ASML, ABT, UAL.

Let's take a look at intra-day levels:
​/ES: A couple simple levels as we continue to push to new ATH's. 5918 is current resistance. A push above that keeps the bulls happy. 5880 is support. Bears need to get back down below this to work towards a change of direction. We are push on the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. RSI and Stoch are pushed to the overbought range as well.

/NQ: 20679 is resistance and 20563 is support. Tight ranges for today. Looks like a break out is due.

BTC: Bitcoin had an insane run yesterday of 4,000 points! It's settled for now and has a resistance of 66,753 and support of 65,000. We'll see if we can get a better setup today. Nothing worked yesterday.

Let's have a great day folks!