Market analysis for Nov. 21st, 2024

Yesterday was not very productive for me. It started weill with the selloff helping our 0DTE debit setups but the rebound caught the NDX stand alone calls and that was that. Our Nat gas trade also pressured us. My results are below: 

Today's blog will be a truncated version. I'm having an update issue with my charting.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.20%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.09% this morning as investors looked ahead to a raft of U.S. economic data that could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s decision-making on monetary policy.
Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -2% in pre-market trading after the chip giant’s Q4 revenue guidance failed to meet lofty expectations of some investors.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed. Target (TGT) plunged over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the retailer posted downbeat Q3 results and cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Also, Qualcomm (QCOM) slid more than -6% to lead chip stocks lower after Susquehanna cut its price target on the stock to $210 from $230. In addition, Fabrinet (FN) slumped over -9% after B. Riley Securities downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $178. On the bullish side, Keysight Technologies (KEYS) climbed more than +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and provided upbeat FQ1 guidance.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated on Wednesday that it would likely be appropriate for the Fed to gradually lower interest rates toward a more neutral stance, citing progress on inflation and the strength of the labor market. She added that the “magnitude and timing” of rate cuts would depend on incoming data and the economic outlook. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said she prefers to proceed cautiously with further interest rate cuts as progress in reducing inflation has slowed. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that more rate cuts are necessary, but policymakers should proceed with caution to avoid moving either too quickly or too slowly.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 59.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 40.9% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in December.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Intuit (INTU), Deere (DE), Copart (CPRT), and Ross Stores (ROST) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the November Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will stand at 6.3, compared to last month’s value of 10.3.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 220K, compared to last week’s number of 217K.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will come in today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 3.94M in October, compared to 3.84M in September.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists expect the October figure to be -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.384%, down -0.50%.
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Trade docket today: /MNQ, /NG, NVDA, SNOW, INTU, GAP, 0DTE's.

I'll look to book the profits on our 0DTE debit positions today. It looks to me that we are moving back to a more bullish tone. See you all in the trading room!