Market analysis for Nov. 15th, 2024

Welcome back traders. Well, we finally got the "crack" in the market we'd been waiting for every since the "Trump rally" exploded onto the scene. It paid off for us. We ended up cutting the losing NDX debit cover at a loss and using our scalping as a sacrificial lamb to protect our biggest NDX position but it all worked out. For the low amount of capital we used it was a home run day. Our results are below. 

The markets finally cracked. Is it a signal of a change of direction? It's still too early to tell. The downside slump has been building for the last four days. 

Technicals have turned bearish. 

The VTI is flashing a sell signal 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.58%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.90% this morning after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated the central bank was in no rush to lower interest rates, while investors geared up for a flurry of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the retail sales report.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slumped over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the embattled AI server maker delayed another quarterly 10-Q filing. Also, Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell more than -2% as the networking giant’s conservative full-year sales forecast overshadowed better-than-expected FQ1 results and upbeat FQ2 guidance. In addition, Tetra Tech (TTEK) plunged over -13% after the company provided weak full-year guidance. On the bullish side, Tapestry (TPR) climbed more than +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after announcing the termination of an $8.5 billion merger deal with Capri Holdings. Also, Walt Disney (DIS) rose over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the entertainment giant posted upbeat FQ4 results and projected high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth in FY25.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand came in at +0.2% m/m and +2.4% y/y in October, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y. Also, core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in October, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -4K to a 5-1/2 month low of 217K, compared with the 224K expected. 
“PPI shows inflation is waning but coming down at a gradual pace, and consistent with what Powell mentioned earlier in the month that risks to inflation and the labor market are balanced,” said Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Thursday that the U.S. economy’s recent performance has been “remarkably good” and “is not sending any signal that we need to be in a hurry to lower interest rates.” Also, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated that the central bank has made “great progress” but stressed that officials cannot yet declare victory. In addition, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler said that policymakers must maintain their focus on both the Fed’s inflation and employment goals, highlighting a cooling labor market and slower progress toward the central bank’s 2% inflation target. “If any risks arise that stall progress or reaccelerate inflation, it would be appropriate to pause our policy rate cuts,” Kugler said. “But if the labor market slows down suddenly, it would be appropriate to continue to gradually reduce the policy rate.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 62.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 37.6% chance of no rate change at the December FOMC meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that October Retail Sales will stand at +0.3% m/m, compared to the September figure of +0.4% m/m.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.5% m/m in September. Economists foresee the October figure to be +0.3% m/m.
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at -0.30 in November, compared to last month’s value of -11.90. 
U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be closely monitored today. Economists forecast October Industrial Production at -0.3% m/m and Manufacturing Production at -0.5% m/m, compared to September’s figures of -0.3% m/m and -0.4% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes for October will come in today. Economists anticipate the export price index to be -0.1% m/m and the import price index to be -0.1% m/m, compared to the previous figures of -0.7% m/m and -0.4% m/m, respectively.
In addition, market participants are anticipating speeches from Boston Fed President Susan Collins and New York Fed President John Williams.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.431%, up +0.20%.

Trade docket for today: /MNQ scalping. Looks like we could lock in close to a $1,000 profit today. /NQ our 1DTE Butterfly looks set to profit today. /ZN will look to take the long assignment on bonds today. AMAT, BABA earnings trades look set for a full take profit. CAVA, FDX rolls. IWM, QQQ, SPOT, 0DTE's.

My bias or lean today is bearish. We've lost the support levels we've been focused on. Until we regain those is bearish territory. 

Let's look at our new levels today:
​/ES; Yesterday was a critical level. I said if we lost our support level we could see substantial downside. We did lose it and we are getting some good sized downside. We are now back to another, new, critical level. We are sitting almost exactly back at the  Nov. 6th high of 5950. If we can't hold here the next stop down is 5904. Key levels for me today are 5967 and 5988 to the upside. 5930 and 5906 to the downside. These are pretty solid levels. I'd feel comfortable using them to establish my short legs today.

/NQ; It's simple. 21038 is resistance and needs to be recaptured for the bulls. 20694 is support and below that is a big gap to the next support level. If we lose that level I'd anticipate much more downside.

BTC: Bitcoin has been chopping around the last few days after a huge run to the upside. 93,393 is resistance and 87,132 is support.

Reminder: Our focus on Fridays is three fold. #1. Book any open profits that have accrued this week. #2. De-risk the account heading into the weekend. #3. Get as much buying power back so we can start is all over again next Monday. Our bearish NDX and SPX debits should be cash flowing today right out of the gate and we have locked in almost $1,000 in scalping already so there's no big rush to put our new 0DTEs to work too soon today.