Market analysis for Nov. 14th, 2024

Welcome to Thurday! Man this week is flying by. We had a decent day yesterday. My net liq was down because of our Nat gas trade but overall is was a decent day. See our results below: 

Yesterday was a "neutral" technical rating day and I just hate those. They are incredibly hard to trade and almost impossible to pick a directional bias. We are back to a slight buy rating today but I question if it will hold. 

We are three days in on what looks like, the begining of a change of direction. It's not there...yet. We have PPI and Jobless claims this morning. They may trigger some movement.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.14%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.01% this morning as investors awaited crucial U.S. producer inflation data, remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and an earnings report from entertainment giant Disney.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Rivian Automotive (RIVN) climbed over +13% after Volkswagen AG raised its investment in the electric vehicle maker by 16% to $5.8 billion. Also, Spotify Technology (SPOT) surged more than +11% after offering above-consensus Q4 guidance for operating income and monthly active users. In addition, Charter Communications (CHTR) gained over +3% after agreeing to buy Liberty Broadband in an all-stock transaction. On the bearish side, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slid more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after announcing that it cannot file its quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the period ended September, as it requires time to appoint a new auditor.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices rose +0.2% m/m in October, in line with expectations. On an annual basis, headline inflation accelerated to +2.6% in October from +2.4% in September, in line with expectations. Also, the October core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, remained unchanged from September at +3.3% y/y, right on expectations.
“A hotter-than-expected inflation number could have convinced the Fed to stand pat at its next meeting,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “A December cut is still in the cards.”
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that, given the headline numbers from the recent consumer price report, he feels assured that inflation “is headed in the right direction.” Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said that although further interest rate cuts are likely needed, policymakers should proceed cautiously, given uncertainties about the restrictiveness of current monetary policy. In addition, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem remarked that the central bank is close to achieving its inflation and employment goals, but he emphasized that officials should maintain a “moderately restrictive” policy stance as long as price growth exceeds the Fed’s 2% target. Finally, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said, “While now is the time to begin dialing back the restrictiveness of monetary policy, it remains to be seen how much further interest rates will decline or where they might eventually settle.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 79.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 20.9% chance of no rate change at the December FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech about the economy at an event hosted by the Dallas Regional Chamber later today. Also, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and New York Fed President John Williams will speak today.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Disney (DIS), Applied Materials (AMAT), and Brookfield (BN) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. October PPI will come in at +0.2% m/m and +2.3% y/y, compared to the previous figures of 0.0% m/m and +1.8% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely watched today. Economists expect October figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.0% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will come in today. Economists forecast this figure to stand at 224K, up from last week’s 221K.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 0.400M, compared to last week’s value of 2.149M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.475%, up +0.49%.

I've got no bias or lean today as PPI and Jobless claims will most likely drive movement but...I'm still looking for the downside retrace.

Trade docket today: /MNQ scalping, /ES (Theta fairy), CAVA, CSCO, DIS, JD, QQQ, SPOT, AMAT, BABA, 0DTE's.

The VTI is what I consider to be, one of the best gauges of what the "overall" market is doing. It just triggered a sell signal on Stoch.

Let's take a look at the key levels today:
/ES: Two key levels for me today. 6035 is resistance. 6003 is support.

/NQ: Two key levels. 21267 is resistance. 21054 is support.

BTC: 93,650 is resistance. 89,877 is support.

I'm excited to see you all in the live trading room. Let's see what PPI does to the futures here shortly!