Market analysis for Nov. 11th, 2024

Welcome back to a new week traders! We had a pretty good Friday with the exception of scalping, once again, dragging down my results. Still...net liq was up and we made money on our day trades so it qualifies as an "excellent" day for us.

Let's take a look at the market. Bulls continue to push.

ATH's continue to become new, ATH's.

Bitcoin exploded even higher over the weekend. The people talking about 100,000 price before the end of the year don't look as foolish now.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are up +0.33%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are up +0.29% this morning as Donald Trump’s election victory continued to boost risk appetite, while investors looked ahead to U.S. inflation data, a fresh batch of corporate earnings reports, as well as remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major averages ended in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500, the blue-chip Dow, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching new all-time highs. Axon Enterprise (AXON) surged over +28% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. Also, Fortinet (FTNT) climbed about +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after reporting better-than-expected Q3 results and providing above-consensus annual adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Upstart Holdings (UPST) jumped more than +46% after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and issued upbeat Q4 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Akamai Technologies (AKAM) plunged over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the cybersecurity and cloud computing firm cut its full-year guidance. Also, Airbnb (ABNB) slid more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to a 7-month high of 73.0 in November, stronger than expectations of 71.0. Also, the University of Michigan’s November year-ahead inflation expectations eased to a 3-3/4 year low of 2.6% from 2.7% in October, better than expectations of no change at 2.7%, while 5-year implied inflation expectations rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in October, stronger than expectations of no change at 3.0%.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated Saturday that a strong economy and higher productivity growth might lead the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates less than anticipated. “I have been surprised at how resilient the economy has been,” Kashkari said in an interview on Fox News. “If that is sustained and we are in a structurally more productive economy going forward, that tells me we wouldn’t end up cutting as far.” He also indicated that it was premature to assess whether policies from the incoming Trump administration and the new Congress would fuel inflation.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 68.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 31.5% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s December meeting.
Third-quarter earnings season rolls on, and investors await fresh reports from prominent companies this week, including The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Home Depot (HD), Cisco (CSCO), Applied Materials (AMAT), Shopify (SHOP), and Spotify (SPOT). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.3% increase in quarterly earnings for Q3 compared to the previous year, down from +7.9% growth projected in mid-July.
On the economic data front, the U.S. consumer inflation report for October will be the main highlight in the coming week. Also, market participants will be keeping an eye on other economic data releases, including U.S. Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales, PPI, Core PPI, Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, the Export Price Index, the Import Price Index, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and Business Inventories.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver a speech about the economy at an event hosted by the Dallas Regional Chamber on Thursday. A slew of other Fed officials will also be making appearances throughout the week, including Waller, Barkin, Kashkari, Harker, Williams, Logan, Schmid, and Kugler.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Monday.
U.S. bond markets are closed today in observance of the Veterans Day holiday.

​The SPY has demonstrated notable resilience over the past few months and has now arrived at a critical resistance level: the golden Fibonacci extension derived from this summer’s high-to-low range. Closing at $598.19 (+4.74%), this level could potentially prompt traders to consider reallocating to technology or small caps, both of which have underperformed in comparison to SPY’s recent strength.

​Tech bulls celebrated this week as the QQQ finally reached new all-time highs, closing at $514.14 (+5.48%). With a decisive bullish MACD cross signaling momentum and solid support from the 50-day SMA, QQQ may be poised to narrow the gap with SPY’s performance. The 1.618 golden Fibonacci extension from the summer high-to-low sits at $553, suggesting potential upside of approximately 8%.

​IWM emerged as the standout performer this week, with the presidential decision propelling the previously lagging index to impressive gains and its highest single-day volume since February. With the price closing at $238.12 (+8.73%), and a bullish MACD cross confirming, the small caps seem poised to play a little catch-up to their peers, with an initial target at the golden Fibonacci extension from the summer high to low, around $250.

If you buy into the mantra, "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy" now might be a time of caution. 

We are back to our "normal" I.V. levels to start this week. 

My lean or bias today: Bullish. I've been looking for a bearish retrace ever since the election. Clearly that hasn't happened. Euphoria rules right now. "Go with the flow" or "Trade the trade" or, "The trend is your friend" usually works...until it doesn't. ​

Trade docket for today:
/MNQ scalping, DJT, FDX, META, PLTR, WYNN, UPST, ORCL, IWM, PYPL, SHOP, SPY/QQQ, 0DTE's, HD, PLUG, AZN, /SI.

Let's take a look at intra-day levels for our 0DTE trading.
​/ES: Pulling back to a daily chart. There are two key levels I'm focused on. Both Fib levels. 6050 on resistance and 6003 on support.

/NQ: A little bit more refined range on the Nasdaq. 21429 resistance and 21263 on support.

Bitcoin. I've never been a big "crypto guy" but I'm starting to become a believer. Funny how that works with something that's making you money! BTC exploded higher over the weekend. Hitting a new ATH. I feel about BTC like I felt about Tesla a decade ago. It's either going to the moon or going bankrupt. While that may have been decided with Tesla, I think where Bitcoin goes is still up in the air (see what I did there?). I'm along for the ride. 83,139 resistance and 81,454 support.

Let's have a great day. Let's follow our plan and we should have a good shot at making some money today.