Market analysis for May 31st, 2024

Welcome to the weekend! I'm in Phoenix AZ. for the next three days at one of my annual masterminds. For those of you that don't know, #1. I'm a big believer in "sharpening the saw" and attend several masterminds each year. #2. I'm building a compound in Costa Rica as I speak (it's taking way longer than anticipated) with the idea of using it as a base for stock market masterminds. I'm looking forward to that day...whenever it gets done!
Because of that, I won't be running the live zoom feed today and no scalping either.
Lets talk about yesterdays results:
We had a solid day yesterday with NVDA finally cooperating. We had four 0DTE's with Bitcoin, Etherium, SPX, NDX. They all made money. With approx. 13K in capital we generated over $3,500 profit! Our scalping efforts were strong as well with a $1,020 gross profit.
Let's take a look at the price action in the markets:
Sell mode continues.

Most of the indices we trade continue to roll over. 

Unless your ticker symbol is NVDA, the last week has not been a good one. 

What leads us up is usually what leads us down. Tech is dragging. 

We re-initiated our VTI swing trade yesterday with a short, bearish bias. This has been a fabulous trade for us. Averaging 36%-50% annual returns and very little oversight or management. 

How far can we fall? I'm looking to target that purple line with is the high volume node area and PoC.
We get PCE this morning. ​The U.S. Department of Commerce’s second estimate of Q1 GDP growth was revised downward to +1.3% (q/q annualized) from the initial estimate of +1.6%. Also, the Q1 core PCE price index was unexpectedly revised lower to +3.6% (q/q annualized) from +3.7%. In addition, U.S. pending home sales sank -7.7% m/m in April, weaker than expectations of -1.1% m/m and the biggest drop in more than three years. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +3K to 219K, compared with 218K expected.
“The name of the game is still inflation and interest rates, and despite an expected downward revision to GDP, there wasn’t much in [the] data to shake up the status quo,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley.
New York Fed President John Williams said Thursday that he anticipates inflation to keep declining in the second half of this year, adding that high borrowing costs are holding back the economy. “The behavior of the economy over the past year provides ample evidence that monetary policy is restrictive in a way that helps us achieve our goals,” Williams said. In a moderated discussion following his remarks, the New York Fed chief stated that he couldn’t predict when he’d support a rate cut, stressing that it hinged on the information provided by incoming data regarding the economy. “I don’t feel any urgency or need that we have to make a decision now,” he said. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remarked that high interest rates might not be curbing the economy to the extent that policymakers expect. “It also may be that policy is just not as restrictive as we think it might have been relative to the level of interest rates before the pandemic,” Logan said. “It’s really important to keep all options on the table and that we continue to be flexible.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at June’s monetary policy meeting and a 12.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will come in at +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y in April, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. Chicago PMI, which stood at 37.9 in April. Economists foresee the May figure to be 41.1.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be closely monitored today as well. Economists forecast April Personal Spending to be at +0.3% m/m and April Personal Income to stand at +0.3% m/m, compared to the March numbers of +0.8% m/m and +0.5% m/m, respectively.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.

My lean today is bearish. We have techs falling apart. Technicals pointing down and the Trump verdict yesterday all weighing on the futures. 

Trade docket for today:
BA?, CCL, DELL, GRPN, NDX/SPX/E.C. NDX/BTC/ETH 0DTE's, SPY.

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5250/5263/5272/5284 to the upside. 5229/5213/5196/5167 to the downside.

/NQ; 18570/18611/1866/18709 to the upside. 18504/18448/18400/18336 to the downside.

Bitcoin; 72,573 resistance. 65988 support.

I hope you all have a nice, productive weekend! Let's hope for some bigger premiums next week!