Market analysis for May 30th, 2024

Welcome back traders. This has been an interesting week. Most of our regular setups this week simply don't have their normal reward to go with their normal risk. Premiums are low. We've been depending on Scalping and 0DTE's to pull the weight this week. Yesterday was solid on that front. We had a total of six 0DTE's. Three separate setups on NDX and SPX, BTC and ETH. With approx. 12k in buying power we generated $4,100 in profits. We continue to try to break $100,000 in profits YTD on the NDX. It's currently doing most of our 0DTE heavy lifting. 

We do have some news catalysts that could move the market today.
​On the economic data front, all eyes are on the Commerce Department’s second estimate of gross domestic product, due later in the day. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP will stand at +1.6% q/q in the first quarter, compared to +3.4% q/q in the fourth quarter.
Also, investors will likely focus on U.S. Pending Home Sales data, which came in at +3.4% m/m in March. Economists foresee the April figure to be -1.1% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported today. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 218K, compared to last week’s number of 215K.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories preliminary data will come in today. Economists expect April’s figure to be 0.0% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -0.4% m/m.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -1.600M, compared to last week’s value of 1.825M.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.

Lets take a look at the price action: We have a little bit of a mixed bag. The SPY and QQQ are trying to hold on to these near ATH levels while the IWM is just barely clinging to the 50DMA. The DIA has given up the ghost and is tanking. Down below the 50DMA. 

Short term indicators give us a sell rating. 

Our trade docket for today: DIA, DIS, FSLR, GRPN, NDX/SPX/E.C. NDX/BTC/ETH 0DTE's, NVDA, PYPL?, Scalping, SMCI? SPY.

My bias for today: It's a little early to give before GDP and jobless claims come out but I'm sticking to the current technicals with a slight bearish lean. 

Intra day levels for me:
/ES; 5271 is the first key level bulls need to capture. Then 5284. Above 5300 I'm back to bullish stance.

/NQ; 18731 is key. It's PoC and a huge demarcation line in the sand. Above is bullish. Below is bearish. Next bullish target is 18856. 18657 to the downside the 18608 which is the 200 period moving avg. on the 2hr. chart.

BTC:  Bitcoin has been drifting slightly lower the last few days. 74,579 is resistance and 66,208 is support. 

Good luck traders. Be picky and don't chase today. We may be rewarded with some better setups later in the day.