Market analysis for May 17th, 2024

Welcome back to another Friday! Is is weird that I know what day of the week it is based on the trades I'm preparing? We certainly have a routine here. Today is about three things for us. #1. Book profits. #2. De-risk the account. #3. Build our buying power back up so we can do it all over again next week.

Yesterday was a very nice bounce back from Weds. results. My net liq was up $5,600 but the 0DTE's were the stars, once agian. SPX had $9,600 capital and yielded $1,400 profit for a 14% ROI. NDX has $8,000 of capital and yielded $,3600 profit. BTC had $2,670 capital and yielded $330 profit. The E.C. NDX was our sole loser with a -$395 drawdown. All told, it was about a $4,700 gross profit on our cummulative 0DTE efforts. We set a goal this week to bring in $10,000 of profits from our 0DTE's. Most in the trading room thought that to be a tad aggressive. Well, we are now sitting on almost $17,000 dollars of profit for the week! $17,000!!!!!! Listen, not every week is going to be like this but I don't know of another 0DTE program that is generating enough for people to quit their jobs and create financial independence. I would put our YTD 0DTE performance up against any other program out there. I would recommend you come watch us for a week. Don't trade. Just watch, and see for yourself.

Markets took a pause yesterday, which is exactly what I said might happen.

Signals here are all still bullish. As the great Warren Buffett once said, "If you short the market every time it hits an ATH, eventually you'll be right!" It's hard to say when the next down turn will happen. It will happen. It always does but, right now we are bullish.

Let me take a moment and heap some (more) praise on our VTI swing trade. This trade is one of my all time favorites. It's on track for 24% to 50% ROI YTD (depending on whether you are using portfolio margin or Reg. T)
Even at 24% a year it can double your acct. value every three years. It's easy to trade. Takes very little oversight. It's not a completely "set it and forget it" trade but its close. Most importantly, it's scalable. I have put seven figures into this trade with no concern. If you're not trading this with us every month I think you should check it out.
Also, we've got another Overnight Vampire trade working for us today. It looks like we should wake up to another $150 dollars in our pocket on a $1,000 dollar investment. I'm really proud of the unique setups we generate. You won't find these anywhere else.

Lets do a quick overview of the markets:
​In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. Deere & Co. (DE) slumped over -4% after the farm equipment maker slashed its full-year net income guidance. Also, Cisco Systems (CSCO) slid more than -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the networking giant provided soft Q4 revenue guidance. In addition, Biogen (BIIB) fell over -2% following its decision to terminate the development of BIIB105, a treatment for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, in collaboration with Ionis, citing poor topline results from a Phase 1-2 study. On the bullish side, Walmart (WMT) climbed about +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow and S&P 500 after the retail giant reported better-than-expected Q1 U.S. comparable sales and said it now expects its full-year net sales and adjusted operating income to be at the “high-end or slightly above” its original guidance. Also, Chubb (CB) gained over +4% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $6.7 billion stake in the company. 
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -10K to 222K, compared with the 219K expected. Also, U.S. April housing starts rose +5.7% m/m to 1.360M, weaker than expectations of 1.420M, while U.S. building permits unexpectedly fell -3.0% m/m to a 15-month low of 1.440M in April, weaker than expectations of 1.480M. In addition, the U.S. May Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing business outlook survey came in at 4.5, weaker than expectations of 7.7. At the same time, the U.S. import price index climbed +0.9% m/m in April, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated Thursday that the U.S. central bank must keep borrowing costs elevated for an extended period to bring down inflation to its 2% target, highlighting higher prices in the services sector. “To get to 2% sustainably in the right kind of way, I just think it’s going to take a little bit more time,” Barkin said in a CNBC interview. Also, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester remarked that policymakers require additional data to be confident that inflation is progressing toward the central bank’s 2% target, suggesting officials should keep interest rates higher for longer to achieve this goal. “Holding our restrictive stance for longer is prudent at this point as we gain clarity about the path of inflation,” Mester said. In addition, New York Fed President John Williams stated that while the latest U.S. inflation data indicate a gradual easing of price pressures, he still requires further evidence before considering adjustments to interest rates. “I don’t see any indicators now telling me, oh, that there’s a reason to change the stance of monetary policy now, and I don’t expect that,” Williams said in an interview with Reuters published Thursday.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 8.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at June’s monetary policy meeting and a 27.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July meeting. The swaps market now expects only one rate cut from the Fed this year.
Today, investors will likely focus on the U.S. Conference Board Leading Index. Economists foresee this figure to stand at -0.3% m/m in April, compared to the previous number of -0.3% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly.

Out trade docket today looks big but most of them are just booking profit trades to de-risk the acct.
SPX Vampire trade, /MCL, /ZN, AMAT, CVNA, DOCS, FSLR, GME, MSTR, SPX/NDX/EC NDX/Bitcoin 0DTE's, NVDA, PYPL, SPY/QQQ 4DTE, SBUX, SMCI, TTWO, VTI, WYNN, XBI.

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; For /ES today I'm looking at two levels. Above 5375 I'll go long. Below 5303 I'll go short.

/NQ;  On /NQ I'm looking to go long above 18704 with an upside target of 18865 and short below 18599 with a downside target of 18444.

Bitcoin: With the monster move yesterday the levels have really expanded. I'm not sure how valuable they will be for us today. 72,452 is resistance. 61,581 is support.

One other quick comment for today. As you've noted, I've transitioned a lot of my daily trades from youtube to here. I will still add to the youtube channel but it is easier for me to do these daily updates here. Over the next couple of weeks I'll be rolling out the same system for our Scalping program. Each weekend i'll update on the scalping website our YTD results, listed day by day. I'm also building out a website for our ATM asset allocation program. This has been a great program with the dual fold goals of #1. Beating the SP500 results and #2. Doing it with less volatility. With nearly four years under our belt with this program I'm on  my way to tripling my initial investment.  Look for these updates coming your way!

Have a great day folks. See you next week!