Market analysis for May 16th, 2024

Welcome back traders! Yesterday was a mixed bag for me. At the end of the day, my net liq finished down 7k. We had a mixed but good overall result with our four 0DTE's. The E.C. NDX lost -$943 dollars the Bitcoin made $81. The SPX made $150 and the NDX poured in $6,600 so $5,888 total net profits from the 0DTEs. That puts us at $12,356 profit, week to date on our 0DTE effort. Our goal was 10k for the week so I'd say we are doing well there, however, there were just too many fires that needed putting out yesterday. Even with NVDA adding $2,300 to our net liq, we had DIA, MSTR, SMCI an Copper all working against us. We'll work on all of those today.
Let's take a look at the market:
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Markets had a solid day yesterday and most of the major indices hit new ATH's.
​The Labor Department’s report on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose +0.3% m/m in April, lower than the predicted figure of +0.4% m/m. On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to +3.4% in April from +3.5% in March, in line with expectations. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, eased to +3.6% y/y in April, in line with expectations and the smallest increase in 3 years. In addition, U.S. April retail sales were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, while U.S. core retail sales rose +0.2% m/m in April, right on expectations. Finally, the U.S. NY Empire State manufacturing index arrived at -15.60 in May, weaker than expectations of -9.90.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank probably needs to maintain interest rates at their current level for “a while longer” and raised doubts about how much they’re restraining the U.S. economy. “The biggest uncertainty in my mind is how much downward pressure is monetary policy putting on the economy. That’s an unknown - we don’t know for sure,” Kashkari said. “And that tells me we probably need to sit here for a while longer until we figure out where underlying inflation is headed before we jump to any conclusions.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 2.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the June FOMC meeting and a 30.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Walmart (WMT), Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere (DE), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO), and Under Armour (UAA) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the May Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will stand at 7.7, compared to the previous value of 15.5.
Also, investors are likely to focus on U.S. Industrial Production data, which came in at +0.4% m/m in March. Economists foresee the April figure to be +0.1% m/m.

Our trade docket for today:
/HE, /HG, /MCL, /ZN, BA, BIDU, CVNA, DE, DELL, DIA, GME?, GOOG, JD, META?, MSTR, SPX/NDX/E.C. NDX/Bitcoin 0DTE's, NVDA?, PFE, SMCI, XBI, AMAT, TTWO, DOCS.

My lean today is silighty bullish to neutral. After hitting ATH's it wouldn't surprise me if we took a pause today.

Intra-day levels for me:
​/ES; 5373/5415/5488/5500 to the upside. 5302/5254/5213*(PoC on 2 hr. chart)/5188 to the downside.

/NQ; 18796/18870/18960/19000 to the upside. 18604/18497/18446/18327 to the downside.

Bitcoin; Yesterdays explosive move to the upside opened up the range. 74179 is resistance. 60739 support.

We've got some work cut out for us today. Have a good, safe day folks!