Market analysis for May 13th, 2024

Welcome back traders. I hope everyone had a great weekend. Summer may have finally arrived here in Utah. Friday was a nice end to the week for us. We didn't have too many fires to put out and were able to get quite a few of our trades for the week to the finish line. My net liq ended up approx. $3,000 dollars. All four of our 0DTE's made money.

​Let's take a look at the markets.

Technicals continue to show buying strength.

The major indices took a pause on Friday. They are all holding their respective 50DMA and this is a key support area that needs to hold for bullish action to continue. At the same time, we are back to a pretty substantive resistance/consolidation zone.
On the economic data front, the U.S. consumer inflation report for April will be the main highlight in the coming week. Also, market participants will be eyeing a spate of other economic data releases, including the U.S. Core CPI, PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Business Inventories, Crude Oil Inventories, Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, Export Price Index, Import Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, and Leading Index.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to participate in a moderated discussion with De Nederlandsche Bank President Klaas Knot at the Annual General Meeting of the Foreign Bankers’ Association on Tuesday. A host of other Fed officials will be making appearances throughout the week, including Mester, Jefferson, Cook, Kashkari, Bowman, Barr, Harker, Bostic, and Waller.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.

Expected moves for this week are not too different from last week.

​Clocking the best performance of the major indexes, the SPY closed less than 1% from its all-time high and ended the week at $520.84 (+1.94%). The price found near-perfect support mid-week at the year-to-date Point of Control and even managed to flip back into ‘Strong Uptrend’ territory per the CHATS indicator.

​After finding support at the 50-SMA and the year-to-date Point of Control on the lowest volume day in more than a year, the QQQ closed the week strong at $442.06 (+1.57%). Notably, the CHATS indicator has yet to yield a ‘strong uptrend’ reading.

​The rotation out of small caps was clear this week, as the IWM lost its ‘outperformer’ status to close only slightly higher, at $204.31 (+1.21%). While the contrast in relative volume was not as apparent in this index as its counterparts, it did manage to find support at the 50-SMA.

To give you some insight into one of our favorite setups, We love our "insider trade" setups. Here's one of our today. DIS. ​Dip buyer spotted buying right at support. Walt Disney Director & Former Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman bought $2.1M in shares following a lackluster earnings report that sent the stock price down over -10%.

Our trade docket for today:
/MCL, /ZN, BA, CCL, DELL, DIA, SPX/NDX/Event contract NDX/Bitcoin 0DTE's SPY/QQQ 4DTE, NVDA, PFE, FSLR, WYNN, ORCL, IWM, CRM, PLTR, PYPL, SHOP, META, MSTR, SMCI, HD, BABA, DIS.

My bias today is bullish, simply from the fact that "the trend is your friend...until it's not". Until we get to CPI and PPI data later this week I don't see any big catalysts to change our directional bias.

Stay tuned for this Weds. I'm going to try to run a google meets scalping session in conjunction with our normal zoom. We've had a lot of desire to expand our scalping and this will be our first test to see how practical it is to go five days a week.

Let's have a great week folks. My goal for our cummulative four 0DTE's this week is a cool $10,000 profit. We'll see on Friday how close we get.

One quick side note. I've had a lot of inquires lately from individuals who want to trade but lack the funds to do so. Prop trading is the answer. Go through a training, pass an evaluation and get up to $250,000 of funds to trade futures with. You keep 90% of the profit and the prop fund takes all the risk. Even if you don't need funds, this is an amazing teaching lesson. I highly recommend it to all traders who want to seriously improve their trading skills. If you jump in, let me know and I can help you to maximize the opportunity.

Intra-day levels:
/ES; 5302/5375/5417/5489 to the upside. 5209/5189/5117/5077 to the downside.
/NQ: 18,333/18,443/18,607/18704 to the upside. 18202/18113/18031/17932 to the downside.
Bitcoin;  67585 is resistance. 58196 is support.

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