Market analysis for March 7th, 2024

Good Thursday to you all! I mentioned yesterday how frustrating my Tuesday was. Most of my trades worked fine but my net liq suffered. Well, yesterday those same positions "fixed" themselves and my net liq came roaring back. It got me thinking about my favorite hobby outside of trading...racing dirt bikes. Good racers don't try to control every movement. They let the bike "dance" underneath them. 

It's tough to see your net liq down $7,000 and say, "well, all my trades look o.k.". Prices ebb and flow. Just make sure you've got setups you can manage.
We had another amazing day yesterday with our 0DTE setups. We booked a substantial (well above avg.) profit on our SPX trade and brought in some nice green on the NDX but it was....once again, our Event Contract 0DTE that performed the best. $1,400 profit on $13,200 of capital. These continue to be more and more enticing as we, as traders continue to better understand them and refine our trading of them.

Our trade docket for today: DIA, GLD, META, MSTR, SPX/NDX/Event contract 0DTE's, NVDA, PLTR, SMCI with MRVL, DOCU and COST as potential earnings plays.

We have jobless claims out today as well and a continuation of Powells speech from yesterday.
Thursday 7th March
08:30 ET
US Trade Balance for January
The US Trade Balance for January is an economic indicator that measures the difference between the value of the goods and services exported by the United States and the value of goods and services imported into the country during that month.
A positive trade balance indicates that exports exceed imports, which can contribute positively to economic growth and employment.
Conversely, a negative trade balance, or trade deficit, means that imports exceed exports, which can put downward pressure on economic growth and employment.
The US Trade Balance provides insights into the country’s international trade dynamics and its impact on the overall economy.
What to Expect
As a major importer of goods, the US has been in a trade deficit since 1975.
While unlikely to move the markets, a smaller than expected trade deficit would indicate higher growth in the US, which could be seen as an upside inflation risk if it is considerably smaller than expected, or, if it is only marginally smaller, could ease recession fears.
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The US Initial Jobless Claims report provides data on the number of individuals who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week.
It serves as an indicator of the labor market’s health, with higher numbers indicating increased layoffs and economic instability, while lower numbers suggest a stronger job market.
Continued Jobless Claims, on the other hand, represent the number of individuals who remain on unemployment benefits after their initial claim.
What to Expect
Employment is one of the Fed’s mandates, however, FOMC officials have mentioned that they do see a higher unemployment rate being in line with their goal back to 2% inflation.
This means that Jobless Claims coming in higher than expected, suggesting higher unemployment, would be likely to be read by the Fed as good news for inflation’s return to target.
This scenario could cause US stocks to strengthen and the dollar to weaken.
Feds Mester is also speaking and we have Nat gas inventory numbers as well. We pulled our weekly profit on our Oil ladder yesterday in preparation for a new set of ladders. I don't believe we will be adjusting our Nat gas trade today but you never know with the "widow maker". 

Once again the small sell signal only lasted a day then right back to neutral and today, right back to buy:

Markets look "toppy" and "frothy" at these ATH's. Yesterdays price action was very unpredictable with alternating buy/sell algos getting triggered throughout the day. 

Futures are up this morning and it looks like we want to go higher at the open. Some pre-market activity:
Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers
Victoria’s Secret & Co (VSCO) plummeted about -31% in pre-market trading after the lingerie retailer warned of potential losses in Q1 and issued weaker-than-expected FY24 revenue guidance.
OneSpan Inc (OSPN) soared over +32% in pre-market trading after the company reported upbeat Q4 results and offered a solid FY24 outlook.
Yext Inc (YEXT) climbed more than +17% in pre-market trading after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results and gave an above-consensus FY25 adjusted EPS forecast.
Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN) gained over +1% in pre-market trading after Jefferies initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and a $16 price target.
Micron Technology Inc (MU) rose more than +3% in pre-market trading after Stifel upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $120.
Edwards Lifesciences Corp (EW) advanced over +1% in pre-market trading after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral.

My lean for today:

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5134/5141/5147/5157 to the upside. 5118/5107/5090* (key support level)/5079 to the downside.
/NQ; 18170/18253/18329/18375 to the upside. 18090/18044/17963/17906 to the downside.