Market analysis for March 28th, 2024

Another solid day for us yesterday. Multiple 0DTE's that all hit for big profits. Our SPX with 3k of buying power hit for $1,334 profit. The butterfly part was key. Our NDX with 3k buying power hit for $525 profit and our Event contract only got $800 buying power filled but hit for a 23% ROI and $190 profit. All told our 7k of buying power generated $2,049 of profit. NVDA was also a contributor to our day.

It's been a very tough week to find good credit setups with I.V. being so low. I honestly didn't expect much out of our 0DTE's this week but they've been amazing. Setup is the key...as always. We do have some potential news catalysts today that may get the market moving:

​Thursday 28th March
08:30 ET
US Weekly Initial & Continued Jobless Claims
The US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims report provides the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, serving as a measure of new layoffs. This indicator is a key gauge of the labor market’s health and economic activity, with lower numbers suggesting fewer layoffs and a stronger job market. Continued Jobless Claims, on the other hand, represent the number of people already receiving unemployment benefits. This figure helps gauge the longer-term employment situation and provides insight into how easily displaced workers are finding new employment. Both metrics are monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists because they offer real-time insights into labor market conditions and, by extension, the overall health of the economy.
What to Expect
Higher jobless claims indicate a higher unemployment rate. The FOMC have noted that they see a higher unemployment rate to be in line with inflation’s descent back to the 2% target. This means if Jobless Claims came in higher than expected, it could cause strength in US stocks and weakness in the dollar, as traders increase the chances of rate cuts this year.
US GDP
US Gross Domestic Product measures the total value of all goods and services produced within the United States. It serves as a comprehensive gauge of the country’s economic performance and is published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on a quarterly basis. GDP includes consumer spending, business investments, government expenditures, and net exports (exports minus imports).
What to Expect
Changes in GDP growth rates reflect the overall health and direction of the US economy, influencing policy decisions and providing insights into economic trends. In terms of the market’s potential reaction to this data point, this is tricky to gauge at the current stage of the economic cycle. On one hand, a higher-than-expected GDP can be seen as an upside inflation risk, as it can indicate increased demand through increased consumer and government expenditures. On the other hand, inflation is coming down towards the target despite resilient consumer demand, so a higher GDP number could also reinforce the chances for a soft landing, with inflation still returning to the target.

​Buy mode continues to hang in there:

The SPX and the DOW rebounded with the SPX hitting a new ATH. The NDX eked out a small gain. The DOW jump was largely attributable to Merck which jumped 5% on the day. GME plunged 15% and our earnings trade on that hit for a nice, one day gain.

Our trade docket for today resembles a Friday, with the shortened trading week. Most Fridays are set for booking profits. De-risking the acct. and freeing up buying power for the next week. That will happen for us today. Lots of tentative trades that may or may not expire fully profitable on their own:
AAPL?, BA?, CRM?, DIA?, HUT, IWM?, MSTR, NVDA, PYPL?, RUM, SMCI?, VKTX, WBA, WYNN?, SPX/NDX/Event contract 0DTE's.

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5314/5322/5329/5341 to the upside. 5297/5287/5280/5270 to the downside
/NQ; 18497/18530/18572/18605 to the upside. 18480/18424/18376/18331 to the downside.

My lean for today is slightly bearish:

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