Market analysis for March 19th, 2024

Good morning traders. We had a great start to the week yesterday. Pretty much everything we did resulted in nice profits. Our model portfolio performed well with the exception of BA continuing to slide but everything else was green MSTR and NVDA helped out but our 0DTE's were the stars of the day. Our SPX made $870 profit. Our NDX made $1,600 profit and our Event contract 0DTE made $500 profit. All told I had about $26,500 in 0DTE positions that yielded us $3,970 profit. My net liq was up about $6,000 for the day.

Markets continue to look choppy here. 

We've flipped back to sell mode. This hasn't happened much this year and every time it has its been a "buy the dip" opportunity. At some point "buy the dip" will stop working. 

QQQ's and IWM are in a pretty defined down trend now. SPY is hanging on and the ever resilent DIA seems to be floating. Of the four major indices we trade, its the strongest.

The last weeks price action has been mixed at best.

Futures are down this morning as the market prepares to receive FOMC data later tomorrow. Housing data is front and center today. 

Bitcoin continues to retrace. The one interesting fact I find with Bitcoin is the same thing I like about trading commodities. Its simply a supply/demand equation. Right now there is more demand than supply. I continue to be bullish on BTC, ETH, DOT (bold call, I know).

The bond market continues to be THE place to watch (IMHO) as the FED minutes get released tomorrow. ​10-year yields may be down slightly on the day but at 4.31%, they are over 25 bps higher from the lows seen on Monday last week. Traders are more wary amid the slew of US data in the week before, as the rates market also no longer prices in a full Fed rate cut for June. The odds of that have dropped to ~63% currently.

We should finally get an entry on on of my favorite set ups today; Wheat. 3% ROI potential in three days. 

My market lean today is Neutral while we await the FED.

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5199/5206/5215/5226 to the upside. 5187/5178/5168/5159 to the downside.
/NQ; 18185/18206/18238/18292 to the upside. 18058/18022/17989/17928 to the downside.

Trade docket today: BA, XBI, SPX/NDX/Event contract 0DTE's, HQY earnings trade, ADM, BMY, /ZW.