Market analysis for Mar. 5th, 2024

Yesterday was a little bit of a mixed bag for me. 90% of the model portfolio did its job and our 0DTE's worked well, NVDA continues to give us fits. The event contract was the big winner. . What's interesting is that I was wrong on the trade. The SP500 did NOT finish green on the day but we still made a nice profit. There is edge in these trades if you can manage them well. 

​Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he expects the Fed’s first interest-rate cut, scheduled for the third quarter as per his forecast, will be followed by a pause in the subsequent meeting to evaluate the impact of the policy adjustment on the economy.
“If Bostic wants one cut then a pause, you can’t help but wonder if the Fed is wavering on three cuts. The data is doing the talking and it’s really not screaming for the Fed to cut rates,” said Societe Generale strategist Kenneth Broux.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 3.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March and a 19.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May FOMC meeting.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to appear before Congress for his semiannual testimony on Wednesday and Thursday, where he is anticipated to reaffirm his stance that there’s no urgency to lower interest rates.
On the earnings front, notable companies like CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Target (TGT), Ross Stores (ROST), NIO (NIO), Box (BOX), and Nordstrom (JWN) are set to report their quarterly figures today.

Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will come in at 53.0, compared to the previous value of 53.4.

Feds Barr is speaking today as well.

Futures continue to retreat from ATH's.
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But on a bigger time frame the trend is still up.

Trade docket for today: GCT, MSTR, NDX/SPX/Event contract 0DTE's, NVDA, PFE, QQQ/SPY 4DTE, SMCI, CRWD.

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5126/5135/5149* (key level. major resistance level from yesterday)/5187* (key level. high of the day yesterday) to the upside. 5112* (key level. below is a pocket of potential downside)/5102/5019/5074 to the downside.

/NQ; 18245/18274/18297/18342 to the upside. 18113/18087/18031* (key level. downside pocket below this) 18000 to the downside.

Most actives from yesterday: