Market analysis for July 9th, 2024

Welcome back traders! We had a solid day yesterday. Premiums are still in the basement and our debit set ups look less appealing with our 0DTE's but we still managed to get a nicely profitable day. 

Yesterday was more of the same. Strength in the SPX and NDX (hitting new ATH's) and weakness in IWM and DIA.

The total market index EFT, VTI seems overstretched and stalling. 

More interesting to me continues to be the divergence between the SPY and RSP. This wide of a divergence can't last forever. They will eventually converge. Whether that means SPY pulling RSP up or RSP pulling SPY down. It's usually the later.

Our trade docket for today: /MCL, DELL, NVDA, 0DTE's, Scalping.

​In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 posting new record highs. Corning (GLW) surged about +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the glass and advanced optics maker raised its Q2 core sales guidance. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Intel (INTC) climbing over +6% to lead gainers in the Dow and Nasdaq 100 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising nearly +4%. In addition, Morphic Holding (MORF) soared more than +75% after Eli Lilly agreed to buy the U.S. gut drug maker in a deal valued at $3.2 billion. On the bearish side, Nike (NKE) fell over -3% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow following Jim Cramer’s remarks that the company’s latest conference call was a “call of despair” and that he “can’t find anything going right for the company.”
Economic data on Monday showed that U.S. consumer credit increased by +$11.35B in May, stronger than expectations of +$10.70B and the largest increase in 4 months.
Meanwhile, Oppenheimer’s John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist in the firm’s asset-management business, increased his year-end target for the S&P 500 to 5,900 from 5,500 on Monday, citing a strong earnings outlook and a resilient economy that could support even higher valuations. “S&P 500 earnings results over the most recent reporting seasons and economic data that has provided evidence of resilience remain at the core of our bullish outlook for stocks,” Stoltzfus noted.
Today, market participants will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. Powell faces pressure from lawmakers increasingly eager for interest rate cuts and others dissatisfied with the central bank’s recent plan to raise capital requirements for Wall Street lenders.
Also, investors will likely focus on speeches from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, due later in the day.
Aside from Powell’s testimony, the U.S. consumer inflation report for June, scheduled for release on Thursday, will be a highlight. Market participants anticipate the latest report to show annual headline inflation easing to 3.1% in June from 3.3% in May.
“While the CPI release will be key, we will be looking for signs from Powell that the Fed is edging closer to a decision to cash in its chips and move in September provided ongoing inflation news broadly confirms that the run-rate has stepped back down,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at July’s monetary policy meeting and a 73.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season begins in earnest on Friday, with major banks such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citigroup (C) set to report their quarterly figures. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, expectations for 12-month forward earnings are at an all-time high.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Tuesday.

My bias today is more neutral. 

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5640 is THE key resistance level for me. We have been banging our head on that all night long. If we can break above that (we are close) then we set a new ATH and the bulls continue to run. It's a big and important level. 5633 is first support and 5625 is big. Below that we may have some downside.

/NQ; We have the same setup happening here. 20,745 is resistance. We are close. If we break above and hold thats a new ATH and the bulls continue to run. Support is 20,662 with 20,605 the next level down. Below that we may have some room to retrace.

Bitcoin: BTC is actually holding its own considering the mass liquidations by Mt. Gox and now the German government dumping $900 million dollars worth or crypto yesterday. Bitcoin has been under tremendous selling pressure the last few weeks. 58,985 and 60,135 are resistance. 55891 and 54823 are support.

Let's have another good day out there folks. Remember, you don't need to swing for the fences or hit home runs. If we can make $1,000 dollars today that's a tremendous victory.