Market analysis for July 30th, 2024

Welcome back traders. We had a solid day yesterday. It could have been much better. It could have been worse. Our net liq was up on the day and several of our 0DTE setups worked but my QQQ hedge in scalping to protect our NDX rolled puts lost money and our Event Contract 0DTE just missed out on profits on the NDX. Here's a look at our results from all our day trades. Our working order for a Theta fairy hit on both the entry and take profit so that result will post to todays P/L matrix.

This is our big NDX roll we've been working since last week. I positve day here would help a bunch. There's almost 10K of profit sitting in it. 

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are trending up +0.17% this morning as market participants braced for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting while also awaiting the latest reading on U.S. job openings as well as an earnings report from tech giant Microsoft.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. ON Semiconductor (ON) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor maker reported better-than-expected Q2 results. Also, Tesla (TSLA) advanced more than +5% after Morgan Stanley named the electric vehicle giant as its new “Top Pick” within the U.S. auto sector. In addition, McDonald’s (MCD) climbed over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow despite posting downbeat Q2 results, as executives pledged to launch new promotions. On the bearish side, Arm (ARM) slumped more than -5% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after HSBC downgraded the stock to Reduce from Hold. 
The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting later in the day. Fed officials, who have maintained interest rates at a more than two-decade high for a full year, are widely anticipated to keep them unchanged again when their two-day meeting concludes on Wednesday. Instead, investors expect policymakers to lower their benchmark rate in September as the risk of jeopardizing a solid yet moderating job market increases.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with investors awaiting new reports today from notable companies such as Microsoft (MSFT), Procter & Gamble (PG), Merck (MRK), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Pfizer (PFE), and Starbucks (SBUX).
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the June JOLTs Job Openings will come in at 8.020M, compared to the previous figure of 8.140M.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index, which arrived at 100.4 in June. Economists foresee the July figure to be 99.7.
The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be reported today as well. Economists expect May’s figure to be +6.5% y/y, compared to the previous number of +7.2% y/y.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.185%, up +0.19%.

Trade docket for today: Theta Fairy, /MNQ, CRWD, FSLR, MRK, PG, QQQ, MSFT, AMD, SBUX, 0DTE's, Scalping

My bias today is bullish. If jobless claims don't rock the boat I think we go higher today.

Market technicals as ever so slightly bullish

We continue to be stuck in a consolidating pattern on most of the indices.

Let's look at my intra-day levels for 0DTE trades:
/ES; 5516/5523/5533*(key level. above it we could get some upside)/5552 to the upside. 5507*(key level. PoC)/5493/5480*(key level. below it we could build some downside)/5470 to the downside. 

/NQ; 19315/19369*(key level high of yesterday)/19448/19493 to the upside. 19191/19147/19080*(key level. below is a lot of downside pressure)/19004 to the downside.

BTC: Bitcoin gave back some of its weekend gains on Monday. Its new support is 66,428 and resistance is 68,585.

Good fortune today traders. Let's see if we can get our rolled NDX puts to the finish line.