Market analysis for July 23rd, 2024

7/23/2024

Welcome back! We had a solid day yesteray to start the week off. Crypto didn't have much directional bias and we waited too long on the NDX to get any decent event contract 0DTES but everything else clicked for us. Here are our results.

The market held its ground yesterday as we continue to wait for the next big directional move.

We've moved back to a slightly bullish technical bias.

My lean today is neutral. The "Magnificent seven" are due for earnings and I'm sure that will give us some directional push.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +0.02%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are down -0.11% this morning as investor attention shifted from U.S. politics to a deluge of corporate earnings reports, with particular emphasis on results from “Magnificent Seven” companies Tesla and Alphabet.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended higher. IQVIA Holdings (IQV) surged over +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its FY24 guidance. Also, ON Semiconductor (ON) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company announced it had signed a multi-year deal with Volkswagen to be the main supplier of a complete power box solution for its next-generation electric vehicles. In addition, Nvidia (NVDA) rose over +4% after Reuters reported that the company is developing a version of its new flagship AI chips for the China market that will comply with existing U.S. export controls. On the bearish side, CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) tumbled more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after several brokerages downgraded their ratings and reduced their price targets on the stock following a software update from the company that triggered a global IT outage last Friday. Also, Verizon (VZ) slid over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after reporting weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue.
Second-quarter earnings season is gathering pace, with investors awaiting new reports from big-name companies such as Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO), Philip Morris International (PM), UPS (UPS), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and General Motors (GM).
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Existing Home Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Existing Home Sales will stand at 3.99M, compared to last month’s figure of 4.11M.
The U.S. Richmond Manufacturing Index will be reported today as well. Economists estimate July’s figure to be -7, compared to the previous number of -10.
Meanwhile, investor focus also rests on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index for June, the Fed’s first-line inflation gauge, which is set for release on Friday. The reading could provide insights into whether policymakers might lower interest rates in September.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month and a 91.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.241%, down -0.47%.

Our trade docket for today is fairly busy. CRWD, /ZN, /MCL, WYNN, NVDA, GOOG, TSLA, V, ENPH, T, SPY/QQQ adn all our 0DTE's.

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5629/5639/5650/5659 to the upside. 5598/5587/5577/5569 to the downside.