Market analysis for July 16th, 2024

Welcome back traders. I'm back from the mountains and lake. It was a nice break but I can't help but think of the scalping opportunities I missed on Fri. and Mon. That price action has been amazing. We'll be back in full swing today with our scalping program. We had a good day yesterday, although I had about 35% of the normal amount of capital committed. That was partially because some positions ran too fast but also deliberate. The swings going into the close have been dramatic. We'll look today to get earlier exits on our 0DTE's to avoid nail biting it into the close. 

Technicals are still pointing upwards.

The IWM appears to be going parabolic.

​In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 and blue-chip Dow posting new record highs. Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) soared over +31% after a failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on Saturday evening potentially boosted his chances of winning the presidential election in November. Also, Apple (AAPL) closed up more than +1% at a record high after Morgan Stanley named the stock as a “Top Pick” with a price target of $273. In addition, Goldman Sachs (GS) gained over +2% as upbeat Q2 results overshadowed plans to moderate the pace of buybacks. On the bearish side, Macy’s (M) tumbled more than -11% after the department store chain announced that it had ended buyout discussions with Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management.
Economic data on Monday showed that the Empire State manufacturing index fell to -6.60 in July, weaker than expectations of -5.50.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in an interview on Monday that second-quarter economic data has given policymakers greater confidence that inflation is trending towards the central bank’s 2% target, potentially setting the stage for near-term interest rate cuts. Powell also remarked that the labor market has shifted into better balance and that monetary lags imply the Fed can take action before achieving the 2% inflation target. At the same time, the Fed chief made clear that he would not send “any signals” regarding the timing of rate cuts. Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly remarked that inflation is decreasing in a manner that boosts confidence it is moving towards 2%. “Inflation is coming down and it’s doing so in a way that confidence is growing that we’re getting nearer a sustainable pace of getting inflation back down to 2%,” Daly said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 8.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at July’s monetary policy meeting and a 99.4% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like UnitedHealth (UNH), Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), PNC Financial (PNC), and JB Hunt Transport (JBHT) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Retail Sales will stand at -0.3% m/m, compared to last month’s figure of +0.1% m/m.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at -0.1% m/m in May. Economists foresee the June figure to be +0.1% m/m.
The U.S. Import Price Index for June will be reported today. Economists anticipate the import price index to be +0.2% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -0.4% m/m.
U.S. Business Inventories data will come in today as well. Economists foresee this figure to arrive at +0.4% m/m in May, compared to the previous number of +0.3% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.176%, down -1.26%.

In spite of all the bullish leanings my bias today is more neutral. I think the selling pressure we've been getting going into the close the last couple of trading sessions is trying to tell us something.  Futures are up as I type but that can change quickly, as we've seen lately. 

Trade docket for today is fairly loaded up. IBKR, JNJ and UAL potential earnings setups. /ZC, DELL, DJT, FSLR, GLD/NEM, IWM, UPST, BA?, NVDA and our seven potential 0DTE's.

Intra-day levels for me:
/ES; 5695/5710/5718 are resistance levels to the upside. 5681/5638/5636 are support levels to the downside with 5636 being the key PoC level. A drop below that would put me more bearish.

/NQ; The Nasdaq is a tad weaker than SP500. 20696/20799/20888 are key resistance levels with 20888 being key. A push above that would be very bullish. 20631/20539/20444 are support levels to the downside with 20631 key. It's a pretty substantive PoC and as I type its right were we are sitting. Bulls need to hold this level.

Bitcoin; Both our crypto 0DTE's from yesterday we nice wins for us. This bullish change of direction looks like it may have legs. Germany (we assume) has ended it's selling an Bitcoin ETF's are seeing heavy inflows compared to the outflows of the past month. 65,945 is new resistance and 60,591 is new support.

Let's have a great day folks. Premiums are still low but if the price action today is anything like our last two sessions, we should be able to find opportunities.