Market analysis for Jan. 16th, 2024

Good morning traders! I hope everyone had a nice holiday and were able to decompress a bit. It's been nice to have some days off to focus on matters outside the trading world. We've had a spectacular start to the year and most of our model portfolio looks like it will continue to produce results for us. Friday was a $4,000 day for me and that puts us up over 22% YTD so far.
Let's take a look at this holiday shortened week:
Futures are down again this morning but we continue to cling to the technical buy rating.

The talk continues to focus on rate cuts and how many we'll get this year. U.S. rate futures have priced in a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month and a  67.2% chance at the March meeting.

Earnings season continues. We had great results last week trading the Banks and UNH. We'll be looking to initiate a new one today on SLB.

Expected move on /ES this week is 54. Even for a shortened holiday week, that's just too low for a proper risk/reward on the Thetafairy setup. 

The market continues to be relatively flat this month with the RUT the most beat up.

Bitcoin continues to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" story. 11 new ETF's are now trading spot prices. 

The big question for the market continues to be, are we basing here for another push higher or are we rolling over? No clear answer on that yet, although a triple top pattern seems to be forming.

Intra day levels for me: Pretty tight ranges for today. 4803/4811/4816/4823 to the upside. 4791/4784/4777/4772 to the downside.  We may start our SPX 0DTE today with a chicken IC or a credit straddle with debit strangle.