Market analysis for Feb. 27th, 2005

Welcome back traders! Yesterday was an interesting day. I had an eye appt. in the middle of the day so we got a lot of earnings trades, Nat gat and DIA trades going in the morning but because I'm out of pocket most of the day we started our 0DTE's with 1DTE's that expire today. I was able to get back before the power hour and got a couple small 0DTE's working, which is shown below. It was an easy day with a lot of delayed gratification. Today we should see the results of yesterdays efforts. 

Let's take a look at the markets. The market really tried to go higher yesterday. It just couldn't hang on. We are back to a neutral rating to start the day. Futures are up. Today may be the day folks! Can the bulls finally take control?

Taking a look at the four major indices we trade, yes, it still looks ugly. All four indices are still stuck below their 50DMA which is not great. The IWM is actually still below the 200DMA. Bulls really are trying this week. They just haven't had the firepower. It looks like from the futures this morning that they will be giving it another go today. Will it hold? That's the $64,000 dollar question.

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.70%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.72% this morning, pointing to a strong open on Wall Street as earnings from AI darling Nvidia reassured investors about the outlook for AI chip demand.
Nvidia (NVDA) rose about +1% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted better-than-expected Q4 results and issued largely in-line Q1 revenue guidance. Other megacap technology stocks also advanced in pre-market trading.
Investors also digested the latest tariff announcements from U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump said he would impose tariffs of 25% on the European Union. A White House official stated that the European tariffs could target all exports from the bloc or be limited to specific sectors. Also, the Trump administration is set to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, though it remains uncertain whether they will be enacted in March.
Investors now look ahead to fresh U.S. economic data, including the second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP and jobless claims figures, as well as remarks from Federal Reserve officials. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended mixed. Axon Enterprise (AXON) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued strong FY25 revenue guidance. Also, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed more than +12% after the company filed its “delinquent” financial reports with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission just before the deadline. In addition, Intuit (INTU) gained over +12% after the tax and accounting software company reported better-than-expected FQ2 results. On the bearish side, health insurance stocks slumped after the Wall Street Journal reported that Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is advocating for greater oversight of Medicare Advantage plans, with Centene (CNC) sliding more than -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Molina Healthcare (MOH) falling over -6%. Also, AppLovin (APP) plunged more than -12% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Fuzzy Panda and Culper Research published short reports against the company. 
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. new home sales slumped -10.5% m/m to 657K in January, weaker than expectations of 679K.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated on Wednesday that the central bank should keep interest rates unchanged, at a level that continues to exert downward pressure on inflation. “We need to stay where we are,” he said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% probability of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Commerce Department’s second estimate of gross domestic product. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, in line with initial estimates.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data. Economists forecast January Durable Goods Orders at +2.0% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.2% m/m, compared to the prior figures of -2.2% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee the January figure standing at -0.9% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -5.5% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 222K, compared to last week’s number of 219K.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a batch of speeches from Fed officials Barkin, Schmid, Barr, Bowman, Hammack, and Harker.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Dell Technologies (DELL), Autodesk (ADSK), Vistra Corp. (VST), Monster Beverage (MNST), and HP Inc. (HPQ) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.313%, up +1.51%.

/MNQ, /NQ scalping continuation today. CAVA, CRM, EBAY, FSLR, HIMS?, INTU, NVDA, SNOW, WDAY, DELL, 0DTE's.

My bias or lean today is bullish. I think the bulls may finally have the staying power to turn in a green day. Futures are up nicely but that's been the case most days this week. Yesterday looked like the NDX could finish up 200+ points and by the end of the day it gave it all back. I  think today they have a better shot at holding green. 

Let's take a look at the intra-day, key levels for us.
​/ES: Levels haven't really changed. 6052 is resistance with 5940 working as support.

/NQ: Levels have altered a bit for Nasdaq. 21,503 resistance with 21,039 support

BTC: We had a good day yesterday deploying a small amount of capital and we'll likely do the same today. Bitcoin weakness continues. 92,822 is current resistance with 82,283 working as support.

We've got a lot of potential built into our trades today. Let's see how much of it we can capture. See you all in the live trading room shortly.