Market analysis for Feb. 25th, 2025

Welcome back traders! We had a solid day, all around yesterday. Here's our results.

Let's take a look at the markets: Sell mode is still holding on.

We've got all four of our indices now under their 50DMA and the IWM is under our critical support line. We'll be starting a new DIA ladder today. This price action is starting to look like it could build some downside.

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.21%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.39% this morning, while Treasury yields also slipped amid worries that U.S. President Donald Trump’s policies could hurt global economic growth.
President Trump signaled on Monday that tariffs set to hit Canada and Mexico next month were “on time” and “moving along very rapidly” after an initial delay. His administration is also outlining stricter versions of U.S. semiconductor curbs and urging key allies to tighten their restrictions on China’s chip industry. Bloomberg News reported that Trump officials recently met with their Japanese and Dutch counterparts to discuss restricting Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding engineers from servicing semiconductor equipment in China.
Investors now await a new batch of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from home improvement chain Home Depot.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended mixed. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) slumped over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 on continued worries about potential budget cuts by the Department of Defense. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) sliding more than -5% and Broadcom (AVGO) dropping over -4%. In addition, Microsoft (MSFT) fell about -1% after TD Cowen analysts said in a note that the software giant canceled several AI data center leases. On the bullish side, Nike (NKE) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $115.
Meanwhile, market watchers are looking ahead to an earnings report from AI darling Nvidia (NVDA) on Wednesday, as well as the January reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, on Friday. 
“If we see blowout earnings from Nvidia and softer-than-expected inflation data, that could add upward momentum to stocks,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth.
Today, home improvement chain Home Depot (HD), as well as notable companies like Intuit (INTU), Workday (WDAY), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), and Keysight Technologies (KEYS), are slated to release their quarterly results.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 102.7, compared to last month’s figure of 104.1.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. Economists expect the December figure to be +4.4% y/y, compared to +4.3% y/y in November.
The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to come in at -3 in February, compared to the previous value of -4. 
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.5% chance of no rate change and a 4.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.340%, down -1.21%.

Berkshire Hathaway's Cash Pile soars to a new all-time high of $334.2 Billion. Buffett can’t find any value plays to put it in. You can say he's out of touch of past his prime but this guy usually has pretty good timing!

Top 10 US stocks' market cap and earnings GAP is INSANE: The largest 10 firms as a share of the S&P 500 hit 38%, near an all-time high. Their earnings account for 28% of the S&P 500 profits and have not kept up with the market cap expansion. The gap will eventually close.

Trade docket: 0, FANG, INTU, WDAY, FSLR, CAVA, DIA, 1HTE, 0DTE, Theta fairy, Scalping.

My lean or bias today is bearish. It's starting to look a bit ugly here. The bulls may decide to step in but if you have even a rudimentary understanding of technical analysis, you are seeing some worrysome signs.

Let's take a look at our intra-day levels. They were key for us yesterday.
​/ES: We are getting some range expansion, finally. 6054 is resistance with 5941 support. It's a wide range. Be ready for some big swings.

/NQ:  Large range as well. 21,605 is resistance with 21,047 support. I would give the day some time to develop before jumping in.

BTC: Bitcoin gave us a nice 6% return yesterday.  It's hard to tell at this point if we'll get a setup for today. Resistance is 95,030 with support at 86,633.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly!