Market analysis for Feb 13th, 2024

It was a tough day for me yesterday with both the NVDA push requiring an adjustment and the NDX 0DTE going out at a loss. Most of our positions to start today look well positiioned and we should have a relatively light day with CCL, DDOG, IWM, MSTR, SPX/NDX 0DTE, VTI as the only trades on the docket today.

We are trying to roll over here. Technicals have shifted to the dreaded neutral rating. These days can be tough to trade as the market seeks directional bias. 

Last weeks money flows are always interesting to track. Crypto mining and digital currency ETF's had the most inflow with the VOO and SPY expieriencing the most outflow.  The top 10 inflows are seen below:

Most of the "magnificent seven" tech stocks got hit yesterday as well and contined weakness in TSLA. 

Futures continue to demonstrate weakness this morning coming into the all important CPI release. CPI can be as market moving as an FOMC day. The market is bracing for, and pricing in the greater chance of no FED rate cut in March. 

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman reiterated on Monday that the Federal Reserve’s benchmark lending rate is in a good place to exert downward pressure on inflation and stated that she does not view rate cuts as appropriate “in the immediate future.” Also, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin cautioned that U.S. businesses, accustomed to raising prices in recent years, may continue to fan inflation.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 15.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March and a 55.9% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut at May’s policy meeting.

Now does not look like the time to be greedy. 

If CPI comes in hot this might be the catalyst that turn this market. Its certainly trying to roll over here. 

Intra day levels for me: 
/ES: 5005-5045 is the new 'chop zone". Price action between these levels is just noise and not helpful for developing directional bias. 5031/5044/5053/5066 to the upside. 5020/5013/5005/4981 to the downside. 
/NQ: 17910/17960/17992/18041 to the upside. 17802/17751/17690/17643 to the downside.