Market analysis for April 29th, 2025Tr

Trend or consolidation day?

This is my only question this morning as we get ready to start our trading. We menitoned in the trading room last Friday that the day felt "normal". Since "Liberation day" we haven't had that. Yesterday felt the same. Basically we finished flat on the day. This is a really critical question for me because, while these big moves have been tricky to trade, the directional setups, like debit spreads and long calls and puts have been the best risk/reward. That wasn't the case last Friday nor was it the case yesterday. A simple Iron Condor would have produced nice gains with little work. I've been talking about the key 5554 level on /ES for a few days now. That's a big demarcation point for me. Above is bullish. Below is bearish. We were essentially sitting on it yesterday and guess what? As I type this we are sitting on it again.

I got chopped up yesterday. I had a small profit a couple of times in scalping but ultimately finished in the red at the end of the day. The risk was well controlled however. That wasn't the case with my SPX 0DTE. We have a goal of keeping our risk to $500 dollars each day. That's pretty hard in this market. I got to over $2,200 risk mid day. We put on an agressive adjustment with long calls and that really saved the day. We bought at $5 and sold at $22.
It helped but I still ended down $595 on the day. 1HTE's worked for a bit but I'm still not happy with the premium we are getting.

The plan for today is to wait a bit in the morning as see if we can get a trend going. I'd much rather put on a directioanal trade in this type of market but we may have another flat day.
​Let's take a look at the markets. Not much has changed since yesterday.
​Bullish bias is holding on.

From a trend standpoint nothing was achieved yesterday.

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.21%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.24% this morning, pointing to a muted open on Wall Street as investors await the latest reading on U.S. job openings and a new round of corporate earnings reports. 
Stock index futures initially moved higher on signs of easing trade tensions. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to soften the impact of his auto tariffs by removing some levies on foreign parts used in cars and trucks manufactured in the U.S. Imported automobiles would also receive a reprieve from separate tariffs on aluminum and steel, a White House official said Monday. The official announcement is expected to be made later today.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended mixed. Boeing (BA) rose over +2% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Bernstein upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $218. Also, Progressive (PGR) advanced more than +1% after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $312. In addition, Amplify Energy (AMPY) climbed over +8% after announcing the termination of its merger agreement with Juniper Capital Advisors. On the bearish side, Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the Wall Street Journal reported that China’s Huawei Technologies was preparing to test its latest and most powerful AI processor, aiming to replace some higher-end products of the U.S. chip giant.
“We expect a choppy market in the intermediate term that could be rangebound until clarity is achieved on what effect tariffs have on corporate earnings, which as of now remains very unclear,” said Brian Buetel at UBS Wealth Management.
First-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with investors looking ahead to new reports from prominent companies today, including Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO), Booking (BKNG), Pfizer (PFE), Altria (MO), Starbucks (SBUX), and PayPal (PYPL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the March JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.490M, compared to the February figure of 7.568M.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which came in at 92.9 in March. Economists expect the April figure to be 87.7.
The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be reported today. Economists foresee the February figure coming in at +4.6% y/y, compared to +4.7% y/y in January.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists forecast the preliminary March figure at +0.6% m/m, compared to +0.3% m/m in February.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.1% chance of no rate change and an 8.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s May meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.236%, up +0.47%.

The Jobs report should be the main catalyst this morning in the futures market.

My bias or lean today: I don't really have one. I think that key 5554 /ES level will drive me today. Above I'm bullish. Below I'm bearish. Futures are down slightly as I type but JOLTS numbers are not out yet and could change that.
I'll give the market a half hour to open and start trading then set my initial entries at that point.

I'm going to focus on Scalping today with possibly going back to the /MNQ. 1HTE's don't look that appealing right now. I'll check back on those later today. 0DTE focus will be on SPX. I'm shooting for a $2,000 profit day so I may up my buying power a bit from yesterday. We've been using a low amount lately. As mentioned above, I'll wait approx. 30 min. after the cash open to establish my first entry.

The levels for intra-day trading today are exactly the same as yesterday! The key level being 5554 on /ES.

All I'm really interested in is whether we can get a direcitional move going today. Let's be patient and focus on our risk management today. That could be starting with bigger buying power commitments and pulling legs early if they aren't working. Let's have a great day. I'll see you all in the trading room shortly!