Market analysis for April 22nd, 2025

All that glitters

Gold just hit another ATH. The dollar is crashing. Bitcoin is decoupling. Bonds are moving. It's an interesting time to be a trader. One thing is sure. Everyday brings something new to focus on. Today we start our Gold/Silver pairs trade. With the index well above 100 this is a wonderful opportunity to put on a non-equity correlated pairs trade.
Our day yesterday was fine. It could have easily been a $1,000+ dollar profit day but I kept our SPX on all day. One interesting stat that keeps repeating is the fact that many of our trading members pull our initial SPX 0DTE early in the day when it gets to around 50-60% profit capture and about 95% of the time, they end up doing better than I who sits and works it the rest of the day. Being out before the power hour is always a good idea but now more than ever! Here's a look at my day yesterday.

Let's take a look at the markets:
​The selling was strong yesterday with Trump jawboning Powell. It's nothing new and meaningless, in the big picture but the market doesn't need much to set it off. Futures are up this morning, as you would expect after a sell off but... I think we go lower today.

My bias or lean today is bearish. 5221 is a key level on/es and if we lose that (we are sitting on it as I type) I don't see why the bearishness doesn't continue.

une S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are up +0.98%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are up +1.05% this morning, signaling a rebound from yesterday’s sell-off on Wall Street, while investors await comments from Federal Reserve officials and a raft of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from “Magnificent Seven” member Tesla.
Investors also remain focused on trade talks. The U.S. said it has made “significant progress” toward a bilateral trade agreement with India following talks between Vice President JD Vance and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday. At the same time, Thailand said that ministerial-level talks that were scheduled for this week have been postponed.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed sharply lower. Tesla (TSLA) slumped over -5% after Reuters reported that the production launch of the company’s more affordable vehicles had been delayed, and Wedbush analyst Dan Ives warned of a “code red” moment ahead of its Q1 earnings. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -4% after Reuters reported that Huawei plans to start mass deliveries of an advanced AI chip to Chinese customers as soon as next month. In addition, Salesforce (CRM) fell over -4% after DA Davidson downgraded the stock to Underperform from Neutral with a price target of $200. On the bullish side, Netflix (NFLX) rose more than +1% after the streaming giant posted better-than-expected Q1 results and provided solid Q2 guidance.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.7% m/m in March, weaker than expectations of -0.5% m/m and the largest decline in 17 months.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Monday that the central bank requires more time to assess the net impact of President Trump’s policies. “The impact of tariffs on the macroeconomy could potentially be modest. We don’t know what the impact on the supply chain is going to be, so I think we want to be a little more of a steady hand and try to figure out the through line before we’re jumping to action,” Goolsbee said in comments to CNBC.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.5% chance of no rate change and a 10.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at May’s monetary policy meeting.
First-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing. Investors will be closely monitoring earnings reports today from prominent companies like Tesla (TSLA), GE Aerospace (GE), Verizon (VZ), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), RTX Corp. (RTX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and 3M Company (MMM). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists estimate this figure will stand at -6 in April, compared to the previous value of -4.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler throughout the day.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.414%, up +0.20%.

Not to mention we've got a lot of FED speak today as well as Tesla earnings, after the bell.
​

Sentiment
The dollar held near a 16-month low after Trump’s threat to fire Fed’s Powell shook confidence in the US currency the previous day. Most US Treasuries slid, led by shorter maturities, on lingering worries about the Fed’s independence.
The 2-Yr Treasury yield climbs 3 BPS to 3.79%. Markets are pricing a 70% possibility that the Fed will deliver a 25 BPS cut in June, with the risk of two or three more cuts by year end.
Gold pushed past $3,500 an ounce for the first time before paring some gains, amid a flight from US equities, bonds and the dollar.
According to people familiar with the matter, BoJ officials see little need to change their present stance of gradually lifting interest rates for now, despite uncertainties stemming from US tariffs.
Docket
US to sell $69 bln of 2 Yr Notes
Speakers & Events
09:00 ET
Fed’s Jefferson speaks at Economic Mobility Summit. Text expected, no Q&A
09:30 ET
Fed’s Harker Speaks Economic Mobility Summit. No text or Q&A
10:00 ET
ECB’s president Lagarde speaks on CNBC
13:00 ET
ECB’s de Guindos Speaks at MIT/ICADE Finance Club in Madrid
13:40 ET
Fed’s Kashkari speaks in moderated discussion at US Chamber of Commerce Global Summit. No text. Q&A expected
14:30 ET
Fed’s Barkin speaks in fireside chat at RVA Big Dipper Innovation Summit. No text. Q&A expected
16:00 ET
ECB’s Knot speaks at Bretton Woods Committee Annual Spring Summit. Text and Q&A TBD
Earnings
16:10 ET
Tesla Q1 2025 Earnings
Estimates: EPS $0.44, Rev: $21.43B

If you want to know what a bearish market looks like, this is it. Can a bear market have vicious snap backs and short covering rallys? Sure. Heck, we may get one today but, it doesn't alter the overall bearish nature of the market. Keep an eye on the DIA for signs of a rebound. It's been particularly hammered.

Trade docket for today could be busy. We'll focus our 0DTE efforts again on SPX. We have an end of day BTC trade working and I"ll likely DCA and continue to work that today. Our VZ earnings trade could come off today and we have ISGR, ENPH, BA, T, NEM as potential new earnings setups. We'll also start our SLV/GLD pairs trade today. We've got quite a bit of unrealized profit sitting in our /MNQ scalp. We'll continue to work that today.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels for trading today on /ES and BTC.
/ES: The 1hr. chart seems to be giving me the best levels for today. 5255 is first resistance with 5305 next. 5222 is THE KEY level for me today. We are sitting on it right now and below it could open up the bearishness I'm anticipating. The next level down would be 5178.

The BTC decoupling from the dollar and equities is something to behold. It's in a tight range on the 1Hr. chart with 88,875 resistance and 88,109 support. I've got an end of day "stay below 89,000" setup already working going into this mornings session.

We'll be picky today on our earnings trades and try to pick the best setups. I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room!