Market analysis for Apr. 28th, 2025

Inflection point

Good morning traders and welcome to a new trading week. We were able to finish strong last week, which is always a nice way to go into the weekend. Markets have had a strong four day run to the upside. It certainly seems like the bulls want back in but is it too soon to declare a change of direction. My key area on /ES is right around where we are as I type. The 5532 level. It was a key level in July, August and September of last year. It was where the the massive selloff of this year, which started in Feb stopped. It's also the level that let go this month when liberation day liberated the bulls of any gains. We are back there now. I think this is a key level. Above I'm bullish. Below I'm bearish. 

Friday, as I mentioned, was a strong day for us. Nothing really knocked it out of the park for us but all combined we were very close to our $1,000+ profit day which we seek. The Nat gas trade was not quite as juicy as last months but it was still a solid risk/reward. We'll look forward to next months setup. These have been nice plays and it's all about the setup. Here's a look at our day on Friday.

Let's take a look at the markets:
After four days ups we've got a buy signal to start the week.

On a bigger scale picture we are right in the middle of the big support/resistance areas.

Futures are fairly flat, as I type. It certainly looks like bulls want to push higher. It's tenative but I'll go with a slightly bullish bias or lean this morning to start off our trading. 

une S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.11%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.16% this morning as investors look ahead to earnings reports from some of the biggest tech heavyweights as well as key economic data, including the jobs report, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, and the first estimate of first-quarter GDP.
Investors are also keeping an eye out for any signs of progress in U.S. trade negotiations after President Trump indicated that another delay to his higher so-called “reciprocal” tariffs was unlikely.
, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks rallied, with Tesla (TSLA) climbing over +9% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +4%. Also, Alphabet (GOOGL) gained over +1% after the Google parent reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results. In addition, Charter Communications (CHTR) surged more than +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted better-than-expected Q1 results. On the bearish side, T-Mobile US (TMUS) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the carrier reported fewer-than-expected new wireless phone subscribers in Q1. Also, Intel (INTC) slumped more than -6% after the struggling chipmaker gave a disappointing Q2 revenue forecast.
“Markets have staged an impressive recovery. While fears of a 2008- or 2020-style crisis are fading, the road back to record highs won’t be easy. Markets are showing resilience, but still face the same persistent challenges, including tariff uncertainty and signs of an economic slowdown,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s U.S. April consumer sentiment index was unexpectedly revised upward to 52.2 from the preliminary reading of 50.8, stronger than expectations of 50.6.
First-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full force, and investors await fresh reports from high-profile companies this week, including Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO), Pfizer (PFE), Qualcomm (QCOM), Caterpillar (CAT), Eli Lilly (LLY), Mastercard (MA), McDonald’s (MCD), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Chevron (CVX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
Market watchers will also closely monitor a slew of key U.S. economic data this week. The first estimate of U.S. first-quarter gross domestic product will show how much the expectation of trade tariffs affected the economy between January and March. The April Nonfarm Payrolls report and the latest reading of the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will similarly attract attention. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, the Employment Cost Index, the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Personal Spending, Personal Income, Initial Jobless Claims, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, Average Hourly Earnings, Factory Orders, and the Unemployment Rate.
Interest-rate setters are in a media blackout period before the May 6-7 policy meeting, so they are prohibited from making public comments this week.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.1% probability of no rate change and a 6.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.260%, down -0.14%.

​The SPY ended on a positive note at $550.64 (+4.61%), breaking above a descending broadening wedge identified by TrendSpider’s automated chart pattern recognition. While bulls are seeing some positive signs, the YTD volume profile shows SPY pulling into a high volume node area, which may act as resistance. With the overall trend still down, upticks are guilty until proven innocent, raising the question if the current momentum is enough to break the overhead supply.

​QQQ led the major indexes last week, finishing above its all-time-high anchored VWAP at $472.56 (+6.42%). As Q1 earnings continue to roll out, the tech-heavy ETF’s next move will largely depend on results from market giants like $AAPL, $MSFT, and $AMZN. With key earnings hitting just as the index approaches potential high-volume node resistance, the stage is set for a major move.

Small-caps finished the week in last place at $194.12 (+4.05%). It is trading inside a low volume node, where price tends to move quickly. Positioned at the top of a descending broadening wedge, the ETF has multiple catalysts setting up for a significant move. However, potential resistance looms overhead at its swing high anchored VWAP, a key level that may act as a magnet for selling pressure as traders look to exit near breakeven.

Let's take a look at the weekly expected moves. Once again, the I.V. in SPX is not much lower than NDX. I'll continue to focus my day trades on the SPX with potential late day entries on NDX.

Trade docket today: I'll focus on our 1HTE BTC trades, SPX 0DTE with a potential late day entry on NDX, Restarting our BITO trade. Later in the week we'll have AAPL, AMZN, MSFT, META, MA potential earings setups.

Let's take a look at some key levels for /ES today as that will be my primary focus today. 5554 is the key metric to watch today. That was a major level back on Mar. 31st. as a support level and Apr 2nd as a resistance level. We are sitting on that very level as I type. Above there is a lot of upside, up to 5680 and beyond. Support sits at 5515 then 5487.

I'm always primed for a new week of opportunities. I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly.