Market analysis for Apr. 25th, 2025

 Three days in a row= bullish?

Good Friday traders! Well... I couldn't have been more wrong about yesterday. I thought we'd get a repeat of Weds. and get a retrace. That didn't happen. In fact, if you use an audible order flow tool like tick strike you probably had quite the headache at the end of the day. I haven't heard buy (and some sell) orders of that magnitued in a long, long time. It was a very solid day for the bulls. This makes three solid days in a row. Generally that constitues a "trend" for me. So...are we back? Is this the start of a bullish trend. I have two thoughts. #1. Too early to tell. #2. Today could be a key day.
​Take a look at the /ES level I've been saying all month would be the area where I'd go bullish. The 5500 level is key for me. It coincides with previous key levels. I think above is bullish. Below we stay bearish. We are sitting right on that level as I type. I don't have a bias or lean today because I do think we'll have a potentially big move but whether it's up or down really depends on how we handle the 5500 level. 

Our Trade docket focus is a bit different today as well. We'll focus our 0DTE efforts initially on our Nat Gas trade that we build yesterday. Each month we get a crack at this unique setup. I called last months setup the best trade I'd ever seen with a 99.5% POP. It was allmost like "free money". Todays isn't as good. Really, no trade ever will be. Those risk/reward opportunities rarely happen but....it's still a good one. I've got about 5K invested and we are looking for at least a $500 profit on it today. If we can get an early exit on it before the close we'll look to add an SPX and NDX 0DTE as well. 

 June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.32%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.35% this morning as mixed signals on U.S.-China trade relations weighed on investors’ risk appetite.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that his administration was engaged in trade discussions with China, while Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun stated that Beijing is not holding tariff negotiations with the U.S. and warned Washington against misleading the public about the talks. At the same time, Bloomberg News reported on Friday that China is considering suspending its 125% tariff on U.S. imports of medical equipment and certain industrial chemicals such as ethane.
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Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.Investors also parsed a mixed bag of corporate earnings reports. Intel (INTC) slumped more than -6% in pre-market trading after the struggling chipmaker gave a disappointing Q2 revenue forecast. At the same time, Alphabet (GOOGL) climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after the Google parent reported stronger-than-expected Q1 results.
U.S. equity futures initially moved higher as investors cheered forecast-beating quarterly results from Alphabet and the prospect of earlier-than-expected interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA) rising over +3%. Also, ServiceNow (NOW) surged more than +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the software company reported solid Q1 results and issued above-consensus Q2 subscription revenue guidance. In addition, Texas Instruments (TXN) climbed over +6% after the analog chipmaker posted upbeat Q1 results and provided strong Q2 guidance. On the bearish side, Fiserv (FI) plunged more than -18% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the payment technology company reported weaker-than-expected Q1 adjusted revenue.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that U.S. durable goods orders jumped +9.2% m/m in March, stronger than expectations of +2.1% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +6K to 222K, in line with expectations. In addition, U.S. existing home sales fell -5.9% m/m to a 6-month low of 4.02M in March, weaker than expectations of 4.14M. 
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would support interest rate cuts if elevated tariff levels begin to hurt the labor market. “I would expect more rate cuts, and sooner, once I started seeing some serious deterioration in the labor market,” he said. Also, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said, “If we have clear and convincing data by June, then I think you’ll see the committee move if we know which way is the right way to move at that point in time.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.3% chance of no rate change and a 6.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May FOMC meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like AbbVie (ABBV), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), HCA Healthcare (HCA), Charter Communications (CHTR), and Schlumberger (SLB) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the final April figure to be revised lower to 50.6 from the preliminary reading of 50.8.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.301%, down -0.09%.

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Docket
09:45 ET
US S&P Manufacturing PMI Flash Forecast 49, Previous 50.2 Range 50 / 48
US S&P Services PMI Flash Forecast 52.6, Previous 54.4 Range 54 / 51
US S&P Composite PMI Flash Forecast 52, Previous 53.5 Range 54.6 / 51.5
10:00 ET
US New Home Sales – Units Forecast 0.685M, Previous 0.676M Range 0.709M / 0.65M
10:30 ET
EIA Crude Oil Inventories Forecast 1.55M, Previous 0.515M Range 4M / -0.4M
EIA Distillate Inventories Forecast -0.65M, Previous -1.851M Range 1.5M / -2M
EIA Gasoline Inventories Forecast -1.4M, Previous -1.958M Range 0.5M / -3M
14:00 ET
Fed’s Beige Book
Speakers & Events
09:00 ET
Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks. Opening remarks at Economic Stability Summit. Text and Q&A TBD
09:30 ET
Fed’s Musalem Speaks. Opening remarks at Fed Listens event. Text and Q&A TBD
09:35 ET
Fed’s Waller Speaks. Opening remarks at Fed Listens event. Text expected. No Q&A
12:00 ET
ECB’s Knot speaks at PIIE

Let's look at Nat gas levels as thats our main focus today.
​/NG: Nat gas has been obliterated lately, along with a lot of commodities, ever since "Liberation" day.  Its dropped about 55%! They call it the "Widow maker" for a reason. This is a huge move. It's makes it a bit tricky to trade with this pattern but it also makes it attractive for a long here. We are just looking for cash flow today but a cash secured put sale later on could be a nice risk/reward, looking to take assignment and then cash flow with covered calls.

On an intra-day basis: 2.90, 2.92, 2.94. 2.97 are resistance with 2.88, 2.85, 2.83, 2.81, 2.79 support.
Our trade makes money anywhere below 3 and above 2.82. We will most likely work it a bit to create a wider profit zone on the downside.

See you all in the live trading room. Let's make it a great day!