Market analysis for Apr. 24th, 2025

Gap up + Close at low = Brearish

We had a monster open yesterday with a massive push up. I called for a retrace as it just looked like short covering to me vs. actual economic improvements. Sure enough, we got selling all day long, ultimately closing near the lows of the day. The record books will show positive closes for the indices yesterday but the price action was decidedly bearish. Despite an inside candle week we had last week, the market is still skittish. Within a two-hour window we had Trump say a China deal was close and Secretary Bessent saying it may take up to 3 years to get a deal! I've said this multiple times...this is a bear market. In bear markets we can and will get violent snapback rallys. That was yesterday. Nothing was fixed. There was no forward progress economically produced. It was simply a short covering induced rally. Futures are flat to weak this morning and fundamentally there is no valid reason to go anywhere but down. Could we get a news flash that pumps the markets up again? Of course! That's what makes is so tricky now.

We had a pretty solid day yesterday. Our Credit call spread on /NQ got blown out of the water yesterday morning but we made some back scalping the QQQ's. Everything else went picture perfect for us. Butterflies were cheap yesterday and we added a couple to our SPX 0DTE and one hit so that was a home run for us. When you can throw on a trade for $80 dollars that can give you $900 dollar profit potential (and you're $80 dollars is coming out of your profits, not your pocket) it makes sense to do it, no matter how low the probabilities.

Here's a look at our day yesterday:

Let's take a look at the markets: Yesterdays rally sent the technicals back to buy mode.

We are now smack dab in the middle of my big support/resistance levels. This means if you want to make your case for bullish or bearish bias I'll probably accept it. The overall trend is down with big upward corrections. It's all just noise and chop here. At some point these levels on this chart will get broken, either to the upside or downside. That will give the market some certainty.

My bias or lean today is bearish. Yesterday's positive finish was a very bearish looking day to me. You have to allow for some crazy news catalyst that pops up and throws a wrench into your plan but it's hard to be bullish with the tecnhncal and economic backdrop we currently have.

Trade docket for today: We've got our IBM and MRK earnings trades from yesterday that should be profitable at the open. We'll be adding GOOG, ABBV, INTC earnings trades today. We'll also try to get our unique Nat Gas 1DTE trade setup today. It's not looking as perfect as last months but we may still be able to put something together. We'll focus scalping on the QQQ's again and look to get our main 0DTE SPX on and possibly a small, late day NDX 0DTE, much like yesterday.

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.59%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.79% this morning as mixed signals from the Trump administration prompted investors to temper their expectations for swift progress in resolving the U.S.-China tariff dispute.
U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S. is going to have a fair deal with China, adding late Wednesday that the country could be assigned a new tariff rate within the next two to three weeks. At the same time, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that President Trump has not proposed removing U.S. tariffs on China on a unilateral basis. Also, China’s Commerce Ministry said on Thursday that no negotiations have taken place on economic and trade matters, and urged the U.S. to remove all unilateral tariffs if it truly aims to resolve problems between the two nations.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed sharply higher. Tesla (TSLA) climbed over +5% after CEO Elon Musk said he would “significantly” scale back his involvement in the Department of Government Efficiency. Also, chip stocks rallied on hopes for easing U.S.-China trade tensions, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) rising more than +6% and GlobalFoundries (GFS) gaining over +4%. In addition, Boeing (BA) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the beleaguered planemaker reported a narrower-than-expected Q1 loss. On the bearish side, Enphase Energy (ENPH) tumbled over -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting downbeat Q1 results and issuing weak Q2 revenue guidance.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose to 50.7 in April, stronger than expectations of 49.0. Also, U.S. March new home sales rose +7.4% m/m to a 6-month high of 724K, stronger than expectations of 684K. At the same time, the U.S. S&P Global services PMI fell to 51.4 in April, weaker than expectations of 52.8.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, with uncertainty surrounding international trade widespread across all districts. Tariffs were mentioned 107 times in the Fed report, more than twice the count recorded in the previous Beige Book. The report stated that the outlook in several regions “worsened considerably” as economic uncertainty grew. “Prices increased across districts, with six characterizing price growth as modest and six characterizing it as moderate, similar to the previous report,” according to the Beige Book. The report also said that employment was little changed to up slightly.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Wednesday during a Q&A session after her speech that she does not support making any adjustments to interest rates. “There’s still a lot of uncertainty around how policies are going to play out and what those impacts are going to be. This is not a good time to be preemptive. This is a good time to sit and wait and watch,” Hammack said. 
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.9% probability of no rate change and a 6.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in May.
First-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors look forward to fresh reports from major companies today, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Procter & Gamble (PG), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Merck (MRK), PepsiCo (PEP), Gilead (GILD), and Intel (INTC). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +6.7% increase in quarterly earnings for Q1 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast March Durable Goods Orders at +2.1% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.3% m/m, compared to the prior figures of +0.9% m/m and +0.7% m/m, respectively.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 222K, compared to last week’s number of 215K.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be released today as well. Economists foresee the March figure standing at 4.14M, compared to 4.26M in February.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.349%, down -0.87%.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels:
​/ES: There was some constructive work done by the bulls yesterday. My key level of 5356 turned from resistance to support. The key level for bulls today is now 5411. A push above that could keep the bulls in the game. 5500 is the next level higher. If we lose 5346 the next level down is 5323.

/NQ: Our approach yesterday worked well. We waited until the last 25 min. of the day to get a trade working. It still gave us an 18% ROI. Low time exposure seems to be key when trading the Nasdaq lately.
Looking at the 2hr. chart, the /NQ could go anywhere today. It's stuck right at a critical level. 18,810 is the key. Above could be bullish. Below should be bearish. We're sitting on that level right now, as I type. 19,096 is resistance with 18,601 working as support. A break out today could send us far above (or below) these levels.

BTC: Bitcoin has had quite a run the last few days. It's widened out the trading range with 94,764 as resistance and 89,763 support. It's a wide range and doesn't really help us in finding entries today for our 1HTE's.

Let's see if we can replicate yesterdays success with a similar approach today. I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly.