Market analyis for Oct. 3rd, 2024

Welcome to Thursday traders! I hope your day went well yesterday at "work". Our work went well...yet again. We've been on an absolute rip lately and it's come at a good time for me. Apparently my bottom row of teeth need $10,000 of repair and work (bad genetics the Dentist said) and one of the roofs on the house where a hot tub sits needs $15,000 or repairs. Ugh! It's been nice to be able to pull out $1,500 a day over the last two weeks to help pay for it all and still keep the account growing. What a blessing trading has been in my life. Heres our results from yesterday.

Markets still look a little bearish here. 

Nothing crazy bearish here. Just having a hard time making new ATH's.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ24) are down -0.09%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are down -0.21% this morning as investors awaited a new round of U.S. economic data and remarks from a Federal Reserve official.
Crude oil extended gains on Thursday as investors anticipated Israel’s response to Iran’s missile attack, with U.S. President Joe Biden urging Israel to refrain from targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities. Israel’s fighter jets struck Beirut overnight following the death of eight of its soldiers in southern Lebanon during clashes with Hezbollah.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green. Caesars Entertainment (CZR) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after announcing a $500 million stock buyback program. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with KLA Corp. (KLAC) advancing more than +3% and Lam Research (LRCX) rising over +2%. In addition, Salesforce (CRM) rose more than +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Northland Securities upgraded the stock to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $400. On the bearish side, Nike (NKE) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the world’s largest sportswear company reported weaker-than-expected Q1 revenue and withdrew its full-year guidance. Also, Tesla (TSLA) slid more than -3% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q3 deliveries.
The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls increased by 143K in September, up from 103K in August (revised from 99K) and exceeding the consensus estimate of 124K.
“[Yesterday’s] ADP employment number surprised to the upside, suggesting the labor market is bending but not breaking,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Friday’s monthly jobs report will have the final word on the current jobs picture, and more than likely, on near-term market sentiment.”
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Wednesday that there is progress on inflation and signs that pricing power is diminishing in the economy, although he mentioned it is too premature for the central bank to declare victory. “It remains difficult to say that the inflation battle has yet been won,” Barkin said. “There is still work to do on inflation.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 65.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 34.1% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the November FOMC meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 222K, compared to last week’s number of 218K.
The U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Services PMI will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast the September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to arrive at 51.7 and the September S&P Global Services PMI to be 55.4, compared to the previous values of 51.5 and 55.7, respectively.
U.S. Factory Orders data will be reported today as well. Economists foresee this figure to stand at +0.1% m/m in August, compared to the previous figure of +5.0% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.812%, up +0.64%.

My bias today is very slightly bullish.

Trade docket today: /ES (theta fairy), MSTR, SMCI, /MCL, LEVI?, 0DTE's.

Let's take a look at our intra-day levels for 0DTE's.
​/ES; Two key levels for me today. 5764 is resistance and PoC on the 2 hr. chart. Above that is very bullish for me. 5724 is current support. Below that we have plenty of downside potential.

/NQ; I've got two key levels on the Nasdaq as well. 20026 is resistance and PoC while 19831 is not only support but also the 200 period M.A. on the 2hr. chart. This is a key support area. If we break below this I think we get some decent downside potential.

BTC;  It's a wide range today but I'm looking at 63,400 as resistance and 60,000 as support.

Let's make it happen today folks! I need to keep pulling $1,500 a day of profits to fund all my life challenges!