PLTR earnings were a bigger blowout than the expected blowout and the stock is pushing up this morning carrying futures up with it. We have a long strangle on. It will be interesting to see what profit we can get out of it today. 

I didn't have much success in yesterday's trading session but that's o.k. I needed to roll my gold 0DTE to today. I was scalping short looking for a retrace that never came. I've covered it now for $1,000 of potential cash flow but that will go on todays results. The NDX had a $900 profit potential and was close but not close enough. Just too many things working against me. The bright spot yesterday was our ATM portfolio, once again, hitting a new ATH.
​Here's a look at my day yesterday:

Let's take a look at the market. After a brief swoon the last part of last week we are back to bullish bias. 

The bulls still have some work to get the rally back on track but yesterday was a strong snap back and futures are up this morning.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.24%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.30% this morning, extending a rebound driven by bets on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and solid corporate earnings.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was the latest company to impress Wall Street with its quarterly results. Shares of the data analysis software firm climbed over +5% in pre-market trading after it posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed sharply higher. The Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Nvidia (NVDA) climbing over +3% to lead gainers in the Dow and Alphabet (GOOGL) rising more than +3%. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Broadcom (AVGO) and KLA Corp. (KLAC) rising over +3%. In addition, IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) soared more than +27% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat Q2 results and raised its full-year guidance. On the bearish side, ON Semiconductor (ON) plunged over -15% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker provided a weaker-than-expected Q3 adjusted gross margin forecast.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. factory orders fell -4.8% m/m in June, slightly better than expectations of a -4.9% m/m decline. Still, that marked the largest decline in more than 5 years.
“This week is a quiet one on the economic calendar, so traders may be taking their cues from earnings, along with any new tariff and trade developments,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. Larkin also noted that a key question now is whether traders will interpret any signs of economic weakness as a bearish signal for markets, or as a catalyst for the Fed to resume interest rate cuts.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Monday that the time for rate cuts is approaching amid growing signs of labor market weakness and the absence of persistent tariff-driven inflation, according to Reuters.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 11.9% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s September meeting.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, with investors awaiting fresh reports from high-profile companies today, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Caterpillar (CAT), Amgen (AMGN), Arista Networks (ANET), Pfizer (PFE), and Duke Energy (DUK). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, S&P 500 companies are on track to post a 9.1% increase in Q2 profits from a year earlier, well above analysts’ forecast of 2.8%.
On the economic data front, investors will closely monitor the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the July ISM services index to be 51.5 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 55.2, compared to the previous values of 50.8 and 52.9, respectively.
U.S. Trade Balance data will also be released today. Economists anticipate the trade deficit will narrow to -$62.60 billion in June from -$71.50 billion in May.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.212%, up +0.05%.

Let's take a look at some of the internals:

Quant score shows continued bearish option positioning.

The big gamma walls sit at 6450 on the upside and  6300 on the downside.

​The SPX chart as of August 4, 2025, shows a recent short-term recovery following a brief but sharp pullback in spot price, with a notable rebound in the Momentum Score from 2 back up to 4.
This bounce suggests buying interest has returned quickly after the dip, helping the index hold above prior consolidation levels. However, the score remains below peak levels seen in July, indicating that momentum, while positive, isn't at full strength.
In the short term, traders may monitor whether the index can sustain this rebound or if momentum fades again potentially signaling continued choppiness or a need for stronger catalysts.

My lean or bias today is neutral. We have PMI and Trade balance numbers this morning as well as Trump speaking on CNBC about tariffs as our main, planned news catalysts. With more tariffs coming between today and Thurs. I think we stall out here. 

Let's take a look at our intra-day levels on /ES:

No revenge trading but....let's try to get a bit or redemption from yesterday! I look forward to chatting with you all in the live trading room shortly!

We trade everyday the market is open. In fact, We start Sunday evening with the Futures. As you can imagine, some days offer up better opportunities than others. I always like to say, it's a bit like fishing. Some days you catch nothing. Some days you catch a few and every once in a while you catch a whopper. Regardless of result, everyday you are casting your line. Such is trading. There are days I look at the potential news catalysts and futures movement and think, "there's no opportunity today. We are wasting our time". Friday was not that day. /ES futures were down over 100+ points before the open and we knew it had all the makings of a great opportunity. We had one of our trading members who told me he cancelled a dentist appointment that day because the opportunity was so great. He was right. We had a blow out day. All we want is opportunity. Generally that means movement. Big movement. Preferably downward movement. We got it and fortunately were able to capitalize. See our results below:

Fridays selloff also pushed our ATM asset allocation portfolio, briefly to a new ATH. It's still a thrill to me, after all these years, to see the market crashing and your portfolio rising. If you want a simple, passive portfolio that takes just 5 min. each morning to adjust, check out the ATM allocation.

Let's take a look at the markets. With futures up this morning, it's not enough to swing us back to bullish sentiment. 

​The SPX chart as of August 1, 2025, shows a sharp pullback in price following a steady upward trend through July. Notably, the Option Score has declined rapidly, dropping from a stable level of 4 to 0 in just a few sessions.
This steep drop in the score may indicate rising uncertainty or a shift in sentiment within the options market, often associated with increased hedging or reduced directional conviction.
In the short term, this could suggest caution around the recent price weakness, especially if follow-through selling continues. Monitoring whether the Option Score rebounds or remains suppressed could offer insight into whether this pullback is temporary or part of a broader change in trend.

​The SPY snapped its five-week winning streak, closing at $621.72 (-2.40%) and printing a weekly bearish engulfing candle, which TrendSpider automatically detected. Following the FOMC rate decision, the Polymarket Indicator showed declining odds of a rate cut, adding pressure to the tape. With a lighter catalyst calendar ahead, the YTD volume point of control now stands out as the next potential support level if bearish momentum persists.

​The QQQ closed at $553.88 (-2.21%) after a heavy week of tech earnings. Even as major holdings like $MSFT and $META posted strong power earnings gaps, macro pressures and fading rate cut odds weighed heavily on the ETF. After a five-week rally, the shift in sentiment may be opening the door for bears to take control and target the YTD volume point of control support below.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.64%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.77% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as investors placed their hopes on the Federal Reserve to step in with interest rate cuts following Friday’s weak U.S. payrolls data.
This week, market participants look ahead to a new round of corporate earnings reports and U.S. economic data, as well as remarks from Fed officials.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the red. Amazon.com (AMZN) slumped over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the tech and online retailing giant projected weaker-than-expected Q3 operating income. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) sliding more than -7% and Micron Technology (MU) dropping over -3%. In addition, Eastman Chemical (EMN) plunged more than -19% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q2 results and issued below-consensus Q3 adjusted EPS guidance. On the bullish side, Reddit (RDDT) surged over +17% after the social media company posted better-than-expected Q2 results and issued upbeat Q3 revenue guidance.
The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Friday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose 73K in July, weaker than expectations of 106K. Also, the U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% in July, in line with expectations. In addition, U.S. July average hourly earnings rose +0.3% m/m and +3.9% y/y, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y. Finally, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to 48.0 in July, weaker than expectations of 49.5.
“What had looked like a Teflon labor market showed some scratches... A Fed that still appeared hesitant to lower rates may see a clearer path to a September cut, especially if data over the next month confirms the trend,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
Ahead of the jobs data, Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman released statements explaining their dissent from Wednesday’s decision to hold rates steady, citing concerns that delaying rate cuts could cause unnecessary damage to the labor market. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, speaking on Bloomberg Television following the release of the numbers, said the labor market still appeared healthy, though she acknowledged it was a “disappointing report to be sure.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 79.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 20.3% chance of no rate change at the September FOMC meeting.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues, and investors await new reports from notable companies this week, including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Palantir (PLTR), McDonald’s (MCD), Walt Disney (DIS), Uber Technologies (UBER), Caterpillar (CAT), Amgen (AMGN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Pfizer (PFE), Gilead (GILD), and Shopify (SHOP). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, exceeding the pre-season estimate of +2.8%.
The U.S. economic calendar lightens up considerably following last week’s flurry of economic data releases. Investors will closely monitor the key ISM survey on U.S. services sector activity to assess the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the coming weeks. This data comes on the heels of the weaker-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI, which, along with the soft jobs report, “amplifies concerns about economic slowdown,” according to FP Markets analyst Aaron Hill. Weakness in the services ISM could strengthen the case for a rate cut in September. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. Trade Balance, the S&P Global Composite PMI, the S&P Global Services PMI, Initial Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity (preliminary), Unit Labor Costs (preliminary), and Consumer Credit.
Market participants will also parse comments from several Fed officials following the disappointing jobs report and the central bank’s decision to leave rates unchanged. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Fed Governor Lisa Cook, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem are scheduled to speak this week.
Meanwhile, investors will look for any signals from the White House on a potential nominee to replace Adriana Kugler, after the Fed board member announced her resignation on Friday. President Trump told reporters on Sunday that he plans to announce a new Fed governor in the coming days.
In addition, investors will await further news on tariff agreements after President Trump announced steeper levies for dozens of trading partners last week, though the majority are set to take effect from August 7th. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that those tariffs are likely to remain in place rather than be reduced as part of continuing negotiations.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Factory Orders data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to drop -4.9% m/m in June following a +8.2% m/m jump in May.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.244%, up +0.33%.

In terms of a bias of lean today that's a bit tricky for me. Futures are up this morning, as I type and that makes sense after a big retrace like we had Friday however, I think there was some real structural damage done to the bull market last week. Will it really shake it all off today, as if it never happened? My lean is that today's pump in the futures is a natural reaction to Fridays selloff and as we settle a bit today we'll continue to see weakness prevail. Today may be a neutral day but the bearishness is still trying to take control. 

I'll give you a bit of insight into our potential earnings plays this week:
PLTR: 2025-08-04 AMC - Palantir Technologies IncAvg Move: ±24.66% | Last: -14.9% | Implied: ±12.01%
AMD: 2025-08-05 AMC - Advanced Micro Devices IncAvg Move: ±11.62% | Last: 4.9% | Implied: ±9.3%
PFE: 2025-08-05 BMO - Pfizer IncAvg Move: ±3.64% | Last: 4.6% | Implied: ±4.82%
BP: 2025-08-05 BMO - British PetroleumAvg Move: ±4.19% | Last: 1.6% | Implied: ±4.23%

SMCI: 2025-08-05 AMC - Super Micro Computer IncAvg Move: ±15.18% | Last: 23.4% | Implied: ±13.12%

MCD: 2025-08-06 BMO - McDonalds CorpAvg Move: ±3.26% | Last: 5.4% | Implied: ±3.78%
DIS: 2025-08-06 BMO - Walt Disney CoAvg Move: ±5.54% | Last: 12.1% | Implied: ±6.39%
UBER: 2025-08-06 BMO - Uber Technologies IncAvg Move: ±9.41% | Last: -6.7% | Implied: ±8.12%
SHOP: 2025-08-06 BMO - Shopify IncAvg Move: ±13.12% | Last: -6.7% | Implied: ±11.91%​

ABNB: 2025-08-06 AMC - Airbnb IncAvg Move: ±10.04% | Last: 16.2% | Implied: ±8.15%

Taking a look at the weekly expected move. It's a bit better than we've had but not much. 

I look forward to seeing you all back in the live trading room shortly!

Is this the crack in the markets we've been looking for? Waiting for? Wanting? Maybe! We are initiating our bearish anchor position in our ATM portfolio today. As that portfolio continues to outpace the SP500 I'll say it again. If you don't have something that hedges downside risk you are leaving yourself open to unnecessary potential losses. I got cooked yesterday on the downside. Yes, I called for a down day and that's what we got but it was way more downside than I thought we'd get. It buried my puts on SPX and NDX. Today looks like a great day for opportunity. Futures are buried today. We got a bearish engulfing candle yesterday.

Here's hoping this is the correction we've been waiting for. We get better opportunities, I.V. etc. in down markets. We may even be able to get back on our Theta fairy's! Here's a look at my poor results yesterday. Let's see if I can redeem myself today! The opportunity should be there. It's just up to me to capitalize.

Let's take a look at this "new" market. It's been the same for a while. 

Sell signals are finally kicking in. All four of the major indices are rolling over nicely.

VTI is flashing "sell"

Let's look at a downside target on /ES. 5960 is my downside target IF....the bears can take control, This is the first time in months that they've got a real shot.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are down -0.93%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are down -1.03% this morning as U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs fueled concerns about the outlook for economic growth.
Late on Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs between 10% and 41% on U.S. imports from foreign nations. Those hardest hit include Switzerland with a 39% tariff, Taiwan with a 20% tariff, and Canada, which is subject to a 35% levy on goods that do not comply with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Meanwhile, the U.S. president granted a one-week delay to trading partners that had received letters, with the exception of Canada. The average U.S. tariff would increase to 15.2% if the announced rates are implemented, according to Bloomberg Economics, up from 13.3% previously and well above the 2.3% level in 2024 before Trump took office.
Also weighing on stock index futures, shares of Amazon.com (AMZN) slumped over -7% in pre-market trading after the tech and online retailing giant projected weaker-than-expected Q3 operating income.
U.S. equity futures are also under pressure from rising Treasury yields after Trump said in a social-media post that the Fed’s board should “assume control” if Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t cut interest rates.
Investor focus now turns to the key U.S. payrolls report.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed lower. Align Technology (ALGN) plummeted over -36% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q2 results and issued below-consensus Q3 revenue guidance. Also, Arm Holdings (ARM) plunged more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the chip designer provided soft FQ2 adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, pharmaceutical stocks slumped after President Trump demanded that drugmakers slash U.S. prices, with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) sliding over -5% and Merck & Co. (MRK) falling more than -4%. On the bullish side, Meta Platforms (META) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the maker of Facebook and Instagram posted upbeat Q2 results and issued strong Q3 revenue guidance. 
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Thursday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, came in at +0.3% m/m and +2.8% y/y in June, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Also, U.S. June personal spending rose +0.3% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m, and personal income rose +0.3% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. In addition, the U.S. employment cost index rose +0.9% q/q in the second quarter, stronger than expectations of +0.8% q/q. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +1K to 218K, compared with the 222K expected.
“Inflation remains sticky and justifies the Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at Wednesday’s meeting,” said Clark Bellin at Bellwether Wealth. “The stock market doesn’t need rate cuts in order to move higher and has already posted strong gains so far this year without any rate cuts.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 61.0% probability of no rate change and a 39.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in September.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that July Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 106K, compared to the June figure of 147K.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect July figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.8% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +3.7% y/y.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists forecast that this figure will creep up a tick to 4.2% in July from 4.1% in the prior month.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched today. Economists expect the July ISM Manufacturing PMI to be 49.5 and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 49.7, compared to the previous values of 49.0 and 52.9, respectively.
U.S. Construction Spending data will be released today. Economists estimate this figure will be unchanged m/m in June, compared to -0.3% m/m in May.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists expect the final July figure to be revised slightly higher to 62.0 from the preliminary reading of 61.8.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Enbridge (ENB), and Colgate-Palmolive (CL) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, exceeding the pre-season estimate of +2.8%.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.391%, up +0.71%.

As far as my lean or bias today it's just too early to tell. Futures are buried and we are seeing sell signals across the board but this market has been very resilient. Either way today I think we have a great chance for an outsized move. This selloff either continues or we get a retace but I doubt we finish close to where we will open. Let's pray it's to the downside! Don't fear down markets! Our traders have access to our ATM model portfolio that not only hedges downside but profits from it so if you have a retirement account of investment portfolio there's no concern and as far as trading goes, it's just easier in down markets. Way better opportunities.  Let's all pray together that this is the turn we've been looking for! 

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's see if we can cap off this week with a big win today.

It's been a very, very long time since we've had a 1% or greater move in the SPX in a single day. Is today the day? Futures are up almost 1% as I type. Blowout earnings from a couple tech stocks and more talk of trade deals getting done are pushing the futures this morning after an interesting session yesterday with Powell not wanting to commit to rate cuts...again. We had an exceptional day yesterday. FOMC days usually present some great movement and that's all we are looking for, as traders. We certainly got it yesterday and we did a nice job of being patient and timing the moves. Take a look at our results below:

FOMC is usually a day that delivers for us. With MSFT and META reporting blowout numbers on AI benefits the futures are pushing us to new heights this morning. We've got PCE, Jobless claims and consumer spending coming out shortly which could also affect the days trajectory. The question at hand is, can the market hold these futures gains and build or do we give it back?
​Let's take a look at the markets:

Markets continue to be bullish but waning is starting to show. The bull appears to be getting tired. 

​The NDX liquidity snapshot paints a constructive short-term picture, with bullish momentum and a positive gamma condition suggesting a supportive backdrop for price stability or further upside.
Implied volatility at 15.69% remains elevated relative to 30-day historical volatility at 9.34%, indicating a rich premium environment, although the low IV rank of 5.32% signals implied vol is still low compared to its past range.
The put/call open interest ratio at 1.09 shows a slight defensive bias, but with the volatility regime also flagged as positive, overall market structure appears conducive to continued resilience, barring a sharp volatility shock.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.97%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +1.30% this morning as forecast-beating quarterly results from Meta and Microsoft boosted sentiment.
Meta Platforms (META) surged over +11% in pre-market trading after the maker of Facebook and Instagram posted upbeat Q2 results and issued strong Q3 revenue guidance. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) climbed more than +8% in pre-market trading after the technology behemoth reported stronger-than-expected FQ4 results and provided an upbeat FQ1 revenue growth forecast for the Azure cloud unit. In addition, both companies vowed to spend heavily on artificial intelligence.
On the trade front, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday he reached an agreement with South Korea that would set a 15% tariff on its exports to the U.S. and include a commitment from Seoul to invest $350 billion in the U.S. Also, President Trump said he would impose a 25% tariff on India’s exports to the U.S. beginning Friday and threatened a further penalty related to the country’s energy imports from Russia. In addition, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Wednesday that the U.S. reached trade agreements with Cambodia and Thailand.
Investors now await the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge and earnings reports from “Magnificent Seven” companies Apple and Amazon.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-2 to keep the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.50%. Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman voted against the decision, favoring a quarter-point rate cut instead. In a post-meeting statement, officials lowered their assessment of the U.S. economy, saying that “although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year.” The Fed had earlier described growth as expanding “at a solid pace.”
At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the slowdown in growth highlighted in the Fed’s statement “largely reflects a slowdown in consumer spending.” However, Mr. Powell refrained from signaling that a rate cut is likely in September. “It seems to me, and to almost the whole committee, that the economy is not performing as though a restrictive policy is holding it back inappropriately,” he said, adding, “We have made no decisions about September.”
“The next two months of data will be pivotal, and we see a path to a resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle in the autumn should tariff inflation prove more modest than expected or the labor market show signs of weakness,” said Ashish Shah at Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed mixed. IDEX Corp. (IEX) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Also, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) slumped more than -9% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted downbeat Q2 results. In addition, Seagate Technology (STX) slid over -3% after the data storage company issued soft FQ1 guidance. On the bullish side, Teradyne (TER) surged more than +18% after the maker of testing equipment for semiconductors and robotics posted better-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its initial estimate of Q2 GDP growth, said on Wednesday that the economy grew at a +3.0% annualized rate, stronger than expectations of +2.5%. Also, the U.S. ADP employment change rose by 104K in July, stronger than expectations of 77K. At the same time, U.S. June pending home sales unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
“The significant beat in Q2 GDP is just a rebound from the drop in Q1. Don’t get me wrong, these GDP data are great, just not that great. The economy remains resilient and growing, and that’s the most important takeaway from this report,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 59.0% chance of no rate change and a 41.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in September.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, and market participants await reports today from high-profile companies such as Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), AbbVie (ABBV), and KLA Corp. (KLAC). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, exceeding the pre-season estimate of +2.8%.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y in June, compared to the previous figures of +0.2% m/m and +2.7% y/y.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate June Personal Spending to rise +0.4% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.2% m/m, compared to the May figures of -0.1% m/m and -0.4% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Employment Cost Index will be reported today. Economists expect this figure to come in at +0.8% q/q in the second quarter, compared to +0.9% q/q in the first quarter.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will come in today. Economists forecast the July figure at 41.9, compared to the previous value of 40.4.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 222K, compared to last week’s number of 217K.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.358%, down -0.43%.

My lean or bias today is bearish. By bearish I mean we retrace from this highs we are seeing in the futures, as I type. /NQ is up +320 and /ES is up 60+

Today should be a good opportunity day with futures already soaring. I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly.

It's FOMC day and you know what that means for us. We have a very specific way we trade today, which we'll go over again in our live zoom. We had a barn burner of a day yesterday

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.12%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.21% this morning, pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street, while investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, including the ADP employment report and the first estimate of second-quarter GDP, as well as earnings reports from “Magnificent Seven” companies Microsoft and Meta.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. United Parcel Service (UPS) slumped over -10% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after the delivery company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and said it would not provide full-year revenue or operating profit guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty. Also, Brown & Brown (BRO) plunged more than -10% after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q2 organic revenue growth. In addition, UnitedHealth Group (UNH) fell over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the company reported weaker-than-expected Q2 adjusted EPS and provided below-consensus FY25 guidance. On the bullish side, Corning (GLW) surged more than +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the maker of specialty glass and ceramics reported better-than-expected Q2 results and issued above-consensus Q3 core EPS guidance.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 7.437 million in June, weaker than expectations of 7.510 million. At the same time, the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index rose to 97.2 in July, stronger than expectations of 95.9. In addition, the U.S. May S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +2.8% y/y from +3.4% y/y in April, weaker than expectations of +2.9% y/y.
“Overall, it was a mixed round of data that has done little to materially challenge the price action or macro narrative,” said Ian Lyngen at BMO Capital Markets.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The decision comes amid intense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents. Market watchers will follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for any indication of a greater openness from the central bank to ease policy when it next meets in September.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full force. Investors will be closely monitoring earnings reports today from “Magnificent Seven” companies Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META). Prominent companies like Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm (ARM), Lam Research (LRCX), and Altria (MO) are also scheduled to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, exceeding the pre-season estimate of +2.8%.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the Commerce Department’s first estimate of gross domestic product, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP growth will stand at +2.5% q/q in the second quarter, compared to the first-quarter figure of -0.5% q/q.
The U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the July figure to come in at 77K, compared to the June figure of -33K.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists forecast the June figure at +0.2% m/m, compared to the previous figure of +1.8% m/m.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -2.300M, compared to last week’s value of -3.169M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.326%, down -0.21%.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly.

The market continues to like the leverage Pres. Trump has created in the latest round of trade deals. They do clearly favor the U.S. and the market is responding with risk on trading. We had a solid day yesterday but that was largely helped by our Copper trade profits. We won't have those to depend on today so our 0DTE's will need to carry the load. Here's a look at our day.

Let's take a look at the markets. Not much has changed from yesterday, except some intra-day levels.
​Bullish bias is holding firm. 

​The SPX momentum chart as of July 28, 2025, reflects a strong short-term upward trajectory. The price action continues to form higher highs, with the SPX spot pushing near 6400, marking sustained bullish behavior since early May.
Importantly, the momentum score has climbed back to the maximum level of 5 after briefly dipping to 4, suggesting that trend strength has re-accelerated. This recovery in momentum aligns with the consistent green candles seen recently, highlighting persistent buying pressure.

Gamma still incredibly positive 

​The 5-day Swing Model for the NDX as of July 28, 2025, shows the index continuing its climb toward the upper band, approaching the risk trigger level of 23,850.38. With recent price action hugging the higher end of the band, this suggests short-term bullish sentiment.
The model's historical performance is notable, with a swing model success rate of 87.39% and particularly strong reliability at the lower band (90.7% success).
This elevated positioning, near resistance levels, could imply a zone of caution for mean-reversion strategies, while still favoring momentum-based setups until a reversal signal or failure at the upper band emerges.

Margin debt just hit $1.008 trillion, the highest level in history. That’s more leverage than at the peak of the dot-com bubble or the 2008 crash. This is the most dangerous signal in markets right now. ​

The Quant score has turned even more bullish...if possible. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are trending up +0.24% this morning, extending yesterday’s gains, while investors shift their focus from recent U.S. trade deals to economic data, a new round of corporate earnings reports, and the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new all-time highs. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) surged over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 amid optimism that demand for its AI servers will remain strong. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 following reports that the chipmaker plans to raise the price of its Instinct MI350 AI accelerator from $15,000 to $25,000. In addition, Nike (NKE) rose over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $93. On the bearish side, Revvity (RVTY) slumped more than -8% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after the health sciences company cut its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
 Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “This week could make or break that momentum in the near term.”
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that a blanket 15% to 20% “world tariff” rate would apply to trading partners that fail to strike separate trade deals with the U.S. before August 1st.
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. The central bank is widely expected to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.50% on Wednesday. The decision comes amid intense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents. Investors will closely monitor Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for clues on a potential September rate cut.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with investors looking ahead to new reports from prominent companies today, including Visa (V), Procter & Gamble (PG), UnitedHealth (UNH), Merck & Co. (MRK), Booking (BKNG), Boeing (BA), Starbucks (SBUX), and PayPal (PYPL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +4.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, above the pre-season forecast of +2.8%.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the June JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.510 million, compared to the May figure of 7.769 million.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which came in at 93.0 in June. Economists expect the July figure to be 95.9. 
The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be reported today. Economists expect the May figure to ease to +2.9% y/y from +3.4% y/y in April.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists forecast the preliminary June figure at -0.1% m/m, compared to -0.3% m/m in May.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.410%, down -0.72%.

My bias or lean today continues to be bullish. Until something changes that what I'm sticking with. 

See you all in the live trading room shortly!

Welcome back traders. We had another great week last week. Our net liq went up nearly every day and we ended Friday at our weekly high. Nearly a repeat of the previous week.. I had a nice week up in the mountains the family. I'm sunburned and glad to be back but what a great week.  

In trade news this week we got a big bump in futures Sunday night with news of the EU trade deal. We've got FOMC Weds. and lots and lots of earnings this week.
Our results Friday weren't amazing, off the charts but our net liq was up $1,400 with the help of our copper trade.
Take a look below:

Let's take a look at some of the market metrics:
​Technicals are still bullish.

We continue to still up at these ATH's. When will the push end?

​The Vol Control Fund Model for SPX as of July 25, 2025, highlights a recent decline in both 1-month and 3-month realized volatility after a notable spike earlier this quarter.
The top panel shows continued strength in the S&P 500 price action, with the index trending higher and approaching new highs. Meanwhile, the lower panel indicates that the volatility ratio (1-month vs. 3-month realized vol) has dropped from elevated levels but remains above the long-term average, suggesting a cooling period following a burst of market movement.
In the short term, this easing in realized volatility could imply reduced pressure on volatility-targeting strategies, potentially allowing for more stability or even incremental re-risking behavior.
However, market participants may want to stay alert to any reversal in this ratio trend, which could signal shifting dynamics in risk-adjusted exposures.

Gamma structure is still bullish

The Quant score is still very bullish

Net GEX levels haven't changed much from Fridays levels.

With all this bullishness there are some things I'd like you to keep in the back of your mind. 

​Asset managers are selling into the rally. Everyone is trying to anticipate a pullback and no one believes the breakout over all time highs.

​Large Speculators / Hedge Funds are the most net short S&P 500 futures in over a year.

​Nasdaq 100 now priced at a critical juncture relative to M2 (Money Supply). As history suggest, a crash is imminent

Just some things to think about. I don't know when or by how much markets will fall but they will...they always do.

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.28%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.46% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump reached a trade deal with the European Union.
President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the EU agreement on Sunday at his golf club in Turnberry, Scotland. The U.S. would impose a baseline tariff of 15% on European goods, including automobiles. The new tariff rate will take effect on August 1st, according to a U.S. official. Mr. Trump said tariffs on steel and aluminum, which are currently at 50%, would remain unchanged. He also said the EU had agreed as part of the deal to purchase $750 billion worth of American energy products, invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S., and buy “vast amounts” of military equipment. In addition, U.S. goods shipped to Europe won’t be charged tariffs.
This week, market participants look ahead to earnings reports from major tech names, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, as well as key economic data, including the jobs report, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, and the first estimate of second-quarter GDP.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new all-time highs. Deckers Outdoor (DECK) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat FQ1 results and provided solid FQ2 EPS guidance. Also, Newmont (NEM) climbed more than +6% after the gold miner reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results. In addition, Centene (CNC) rose over +6% after the health insurer unveiled a plan to address issues in its Affordable Care Act business to ensure profitability in 2026. On the bearish side, Charter Communications (CHTR) tumbled more than -18% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted weaker-than-expected Q2 EPS.
Economic data released on Friday showed that U.S. durable goods orders slumped -9.3% m/m in June, better than expectations of -10.4% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose +0.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m.
“The pace of earnings so far this month has been positive, economic data has been hanging in there, and we’re even starting to get some sense of clarity on tariffs. You can’t fault investors for being optimistic,” said Bespoke Investment Group.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full force, and investors await fresh reports from high-profile companies this week, including Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL), Amazon.com (AMZN), Mastercard (MA), Visa (V), Arm (ARM), Qualcomm (QCOM), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Procter & Gamble (PG), United Parcel Service (UPS), Exxon Mobil (XOM), and Chevron (CVX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +3.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, slightly above the pre-season forecast of +2.8%.
Market watchers will also focus on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference. The central bank is widely expected to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged in a range of 4.25% to 4.50%. The decision comes amid criticism of Mr. Powell by President Trump and repeated calls for the central bank to lower interest rates. Powell and other Fed officials have emphasized the importance of patience as the Trump administration’s tariffs pose a risk of reigniting inflation.
“We believe this [Fed] meeting will be a non-event with rates left on hold and quantitative tightening likely left unchanged,” ING analysts said in a note.
This week’s top-tier U.S. economic data will offer insight into whether the Fed may be justified in lowering interest rates in the coming months. The advance estimate of second-quarter U.S. gross domestic product, the July Nonfarm Payrolls report, and the latest reading of the core personal consumption expenditures price index will be the main highlights. Any indications of a cooling labor market or slowing economy could boost the likelihood of rate cuts resuming in September or October. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, Pending Home Sales, the Employment Cost Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Personal Income, Personal Spending, the Chicago PMI, Average Hourly Earnings, the Unemployment Rate, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
Meanwhile, the August 1st deadline for the U.S. to impose reciprocal tariffs also takes center stage. Optimism has been building that the U.S. will reach trade agreements with multiple countries before the deadline.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.373%, down -0.30%.

My lean or bias today is bullish. Once again, at some point we'll get a change of direction but for now, everything continues to look bullish. Futures have retraced a bit from Sunday's high but we are still looking to open up.

Gamma levels for 0DTE:

Today should be a good day with our Gold 0DTE already cash flowing and our Copper trade take profit coming shortly. I'll see you all back on Zoom this morning! Looking forward to it.

I love trading and I'm super grateful to be able to make a living from it. Some days are up and some are down but one thing I love about it is that every day is a new day with new opportunities. If you didn't like today, tomorrow will most likely serve something else up that you very well may like! Yesterday was one of those rare days where I felt like we were just wasting our time. We never really got any substantive setups working. That's not totally true. We repositioned out Gold puts to todays expiration and they look to provide some good cash flow today but as far as booking results from yesterday it was a bust.  I did add another butterfly late yesterday that cost me $47 dollars and hit for a $325 profit but...I didn't add it as an official trade to the group and so it doesn't get counted in our P/L matrix. It was a nice hit though and we very well may be back using butterflies today. 

As I said, not much to report from yesterday. 

Let's take a look at the markets. Surprise, surprise. The bullish bias continues to hold.

​The SPX chart as of July 24, 2025, shows a strong upward trend in spot prices, with a steady sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The momentum score remains elevated at level 4, just below its recent peak of 5, indicating continued strength but slightly less acceleration in recent sessions.
This persistent high momentum may reflect broad market confidence, although some moderation suggests short-term consolidation could be underway. In the near term, watching for any drop in momentum score or a reversal in price pattern could be useful for gauging shifts in market behavior.

Positive gamma continues.

Quant score continues to be bullish.

Looking at intra-day levels: 

Extremes almost always result in a reversion to the mean.

If you aren't seriously preparing for something like this or say it can't happen, I'd take a hard look at your risk managment.

I look forward to finishing the week strong with you all! Our net liq should have a good shot today at doing the same thing it did last week...finishing at the high of the week. That's what it's all about at the end of the day. 
​See you all in the live trading room!

Happy 24th of July holiday! It's not a holiday for you? Well, for us Utahn's it is. It commemorates the first pioneers entering the Salt Lake valley and it's just as big as the 4th for us. I'm up in the mountains with the family for a much needed break. No. We are still trading every day! Just a break from home. Tesla reported earnings yesterday after the close and they were spot on, exactly...to a tee, what I thought they would be. We know sales are crashing. We know profit margins are shrinking. We know competitors are killing their market share. We know that robo taxis, AI and robots are not only not making a dime...yet, but they are actually a cash drain. None of this was conjecture or opinion before the earnings release. We already knew all this yet, everything , and I mean everything I could see online was bullish. People asking if we would see $400 a share today. Clearly all this was wishful thinking. Let me be clear. I'm not a hater. I have solar that powers my house. I own three Teslas. A model 3 and two powerwall back up battery stations. I'm also a critical thinker and so, we positioned for a slide in Tesla stock. What's the lesson here? Don't let personal bias entry the equation. Employee some critical thinking. Also...as I always say, it's way easier to make money to the downside than the upside.

​Let's take a look at our day yesterday:

Let's take a look at the market today: Technicals continue to lean bullish. Trade deals and GOOG strong results are supporting the futures this morning. 

We come into the day still holding lots of positive Gamma, which is bullish. 

The Quant score is still very bullish.

Positive GEX continues to build 

September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are trending up +0.36% this morning as investors cheer forecast-beating quarterly results from Alphabet and remain optimistic that the U.S. may strike more trade deals soon.
Alphabet (GOOGL) rose over +3% in pre-market trading after the Google parent reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results, boosted by demand for AI products. The company also projected a $10 billion increase in its capital spending for the year, with CEO Sundar Pichai attributing the move to the “strong and growing demand for our cloud products and services.”
Also aiding sentiment, reports emerged that the European Union and the U.S. are making headway on a deal that would impose a 15% tariff on most EU imports. In addition, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and South Korea have discussed creating a fund to invest in American projects as part of a trade agreement.
Investors now look ahead to U.S. business activity data and the next round of corporate earnings reports.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended higher. Lamb Weston Holdings (LW) surged over +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the producer of frozen potato products posted upbeat FQ4 results and introduced a new cost savings program. Also, Baker Hughes (BKR) climbed more than +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company reported better-than-expected Q2 results. In addition, GE Vernova (GEV) advanced over +14% after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results and said it expects full-year revenue to trend toward the “higher end” of its $36B-$37B guidance. On the bearish side, Texas Instruments (TXN) plunged more than -13% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor company issued disappointing Q3 earnings guidance.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. June existing home sales fell -2.7% m/m to a 9-month low of 3.93M, weaker than expectations of 4.00M.
“With the Aug. 1 deadline looming, investors have been encouraged by the recent trade-deal announcements,” said Ian Lyngen and Vail Hartman at BMO Capital Markets. “The progress on the trade war will provide clarity and help the market move forward to incorporate the new global trade environment.”
Second-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, and investors look forward to fresh reports from notable companies today, including Blackstone (BX), Honeywell (HON), Union Pacific (UNP), Intel (INTC), and L3Harris Technologies (LHX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +3.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, slightly above the pre-season forecast of +2.8%.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on S&P Global’s flash U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the July Manufacturing PMI will come in at 52.7, compared to last month’s value of 52.9. Also, economists expect the July Services PMI to be 53.0, compared to 52.9 in June.
Investors will also focus on U.S. New Home Sales data. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 649K in June, compared to 623K in May.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 227K, compared to last week’s number of 221K.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is set to visit the Federal Reserve’s headquarters later today. President Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell for his reluctance to cut interest rates.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.4% probability of no rate change and a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s policy meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.396%, up +0.16%.

We've got PMI, home sales and Jobless claims all coming in this morning which could move markets. There's also the chance we get more good trade news dropping. All these things could be market movers today. My bias or lean is still bullish. Again...you just kind of have to be here.

Ladies and Gentleman, I present to you the Shiller PE ratio.  Currently only the tech bubble of 2000 has us at higher valuations. What could go wrong? We'll keep stacking bearish plays in our ATM portfolio.

Let's take a look at the intra-day numbers for /ES.

As you can see, there are multiple (and tightly grouped) resistance levels with only one substantive support level which is much further down. 6410, 6419, 6437 are my resistance levels with 6366 working as the major support level.

Very focused day today. We had another nice day yesterday. Let's see if we can repeat it today!  As always, I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room. Let's see if we can get another green day on our net liq.!

Several big trade deals announced with Japan leading the way. People like to derisively use the TACO acronym but not today. With 100+ billion having been poured into the U.S. treasury and looking like half a trillion a year coming in overall Trump is accomplishing what he set out to do. You can say the bulk of that cost is carried by the U.S. consumer but what I think is more interesting are the concessions he's getting out of these deals. While it's debatable about whether the tariffs are a good/bad deal for consumers, there's no debate he's strengthened the U.S. position in global trade. Markets like the news and futures are up.

We had an absolutely stellar day yesterday. I say stellar because we continue to chase our Gold call side 0DTE with another roll higher and our LMT earnings trade also drug our net liq down. It was a battle all day but our traders who stuck it out ended the day up! Net liq was once again green. It was an all day effort but it paid off.
​Here's a look at our days results.

Let's take a look at the market: With trade deals starting off the day everything continues to look bullish.

Gamma continues to be positive and bullish 

Quant score is bullish 

Gamma walls continue to be skewed to more downside than upside percentage wise.

Intra-day /ES levels: 6376 is first resistance with 6408 next. 6365 is first support with 6350 and 6322 next.

Maybe this isn't the place you want to be adding longs? We continue to add bearish positions to our ATM portfolio, which is performing right in line with expectations. 

September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU25) are up +0.39%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU25) are up +0.19% this morning as sentiment got a boost after the U.S. announced a trade deal with Japan.
U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social late Tuesday that the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including autos, which is lower than the 25% rate he had previously threatened in a letter to the Japanese government. The deal will also see Japan invest $550 billion into the U.S. The U.S. also struck a deal with the Philippines, setting a 19% tariff on the nation’s exports. In addition, President Trump unveiled further details about a pact with Indonesia.
However, gains in U.S. equity futures are limited amid investor caution ahead of earnings from “Magnificent Seven” companies Tesla and Alphabet. Higher bond yields today are also weighing on stock index futures.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. IQVIA Holdings (IQV) surged over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported stronger-than-expected Q2 results. Also, Paccar (PCAR) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the company posted better-than-expected Q2 results. In addition, D.R. Horton (DHI) jumped over +16% after the homebuilder reported upbeat FQ3 results. On the bearish side, Lockheed Martin (LMT) slumped over -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the defense contractor posted weaker-than-expected Q2 revenue and cut its full-year EPS guidance.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low of -20 in July, weaker than expectations of -2.
Second-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with all eyes today on reports from two of this year’s laggards among the Magnificent Seven — Tesla (TSLA) and Alphabet (GOOGL). Investors will also monitor earnings reports from other prominent companies such as T-Mobile US (TMUS), International Business Machines (IBM), ServiceNow (NOW), AT&T (T), Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +3.2% increase in quarterly earnings for Q2 compared to the previous year, slightly above the pre-season forecast of +2.8%.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Existing Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that June Existing Home Sales will stand at 4.00M, compared to 4.03M in May.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be -1.400M, compared to last week’s value of -3.859M.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.3% chance of no rate change and a 4.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at next week’s policy meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.381%, up +1.04%.

Trade docket for today: /GC 0DTE, /HG next tranche addition, LMT continued work, GOOG earnings trade, QQQ 0DTE, SPX 0DTE, Possible NDX 0DTE again. These have been some of our biggest gainers lately. Possible /MNQ scalp again. Our scalping results yesterday were amazing considering we used /MNQ vs. QQQ options and never covered. No 1HTE's the rest of this week. I'm working remote on my laptop and don't have my screens to watch it.

My bias or lean today is slightly bullish....hard not to be.

Yesterday was amazing effort folks. I look forward to seeing what we can accomplish today. See you soon in the trading room.