The great (one of the greatest, IMHO) trader Paul Tudor Jones gave an interview yesterday with CNBC and outlined how we are set for a big upward surge, followed by a crash. Much like 1999. 
​Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones believes the conditions are set for a powerful surge in stock prices before the bull market tops out.
“My guess is that I think all the ingredients are in place for some kind of a blow off,” Jones said Monday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “History rhymes a lot, so I would think some version of it is going to happen again. If anything, now is so much more potentially explosive than 1999.”
The founder and chief investment officer of Tudor Investment said today’s market is reminiscent of the setup leading up to the burst of the dot-com bubble in late 1999, with dramatic rallies in technology shares and heightened speculative behavior. Jones said the circular deals or vendor financing happening in the artificial intelligence space today also made him “nervous.”
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has bounced 55% from its April bottom to consecutive record highs. The rally has been driven by megacap tech giants, which have invested billions in AI and are being valued richly on the potential of this emerging era.

Is he right? Who knows? I know he's a much more successful trader than I! The thing with crashes is, you can't see them coming until your already in it. Interesting times for sure. 
We had another solid day yesterday. We also setup a 1DTE NDX trade that will be our starting point for this morning. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets: Bullish bias hasn't changed. 

We continue to be seemingly glued to the ATH's.

​The S&P 500 continues to grind higher, showing steady price strength with minimal volatility spikes, as reflected in the low and stable volatility score. Recent candles indicate sustained buying interest, with pullbacks quickly absorbed and no major volatility shocks disrupting the uptrend.
This subdued volatility environment suggests that short-term market sentiment remains controlled and supportive of gradual continuation, though traders should stay alert for any sudden uptick in volatility that could hint at a near-term reversal or consolidation phase.

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.04%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.01% this morning, taking a breather after hitting fresh records in the prior session, while the deadlock between Republicans and Democrats in Washington continues.
The U.S. government shutdown has entered its seventh day, with no resolution in sight. President Trump appeared to question the possibility of talks with Democrats to end the shutdown after the Senate failed for a fifth time late Monday to pass a short-term funding bill. The Senate voted 52-42 to advance a House-passed stopgap bill that would keep the government funded through November 21st. However, Republicans need 60 votes, while holding only 53 seats.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) jumped over +23% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after announcing a deal with OpenAI to roll out AI infrastructure, which the company said could bring in tens of billions of dollars in new revenue. Also, Tesla (TSLA) climbed more than +5% after the electric vehicle maker shared a video on Sunday teasing an October 7th event. In addition, Comerica (CMA) surged over +13% after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the regional lender for about $10.9 billion in stock. On the bearish side, Applovin (APP) tumbled more than -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that the SEC was probing the company’s data-collection practices.
“We’re in a self-fulfilling rally — earnings are strong and getting stronger, investors are shrugging off a lack of data, and even a government shutdown can’t shake their confidence,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide. “And with half of the past decade’s returns typically coming in Q4, the main story right now is momentum.”
Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said on Monday that policymakers should continue pressing against inflation, which has remained persistently high. “With inflation still too high, monetary policy should lean against demand growth to allow the space for supply to grow and relieve price pressures in the economy,” Schmid said. He reiterated that interest rates remain only “slightly restrictive,” a stance he described as appropriate.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 92.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 7.5% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s October meeting.
On the trade front, President Trump is scheduled to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney later today. The Canadian Prime Minister is pushing for tariff relief in key sectors, including autos and steel.
In light of the government shutdown, the publication of August trade data, originally set for today, will likely be delayed.
Still, the Fed’s Consumer Credit report will be released today. Since the Fed isn’t financed through the congressional appropriations process, it continues its schedule as planned. Economists expect the U.S. Consumer Credit to stand at $12.90 billion in August, compared to the previous figure of $16.01 billion.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed officials Bostic, Bowman, Miran, and Kashkari.
On the earnings front, spice and condiments manufacturing firm McCormick & Company (MKC) is set to report its quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.173%, up +0.17%.

​The last time the Nasdaq was up for seven months in a row was in 2017.

My lean or bias today is neutral to slightly bearish. Me thinketh its time for a pause. This means I'll likely start our SPX 0DTE today with another Iron Fly.

The Quant score is still firmly bullish 

There is a huge skew between Gamma resistance at 6800 and put support all the way down at 6300.

We had a good training session yesterday on ETF's and supplied a list of 3X leveraged ETF's that we will look at to trade 0DTE on. This should open up more opportunities for us each day. Tomorrow we'll listen to Jessie Livermore teachings. Come join us at 12:00 MDT on our live zoom feed. 

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!

In spite of the Govt. shut down and some concerning valuation levels, the market just keeps pushing. Futures are up again this morning, as I type. Be prepared. We won't have a lot of our economic data to trade off until our fearless leaders decide to go back to work but once they do, it will be like flood gates opening up. Lots of data to parse through. We had another solid day of results on Friday. See below: 

Let's take a look at the markets to start the new week.
​Technicals are bullish. Not a big surprise.

Markets are not rolling over. They aren't pushing higher. They are just hanging out at ATH'S. Something will shake loose eventually. 

​SPY ended last week in the green at $669.21 (+1.06%) to kick off October. Zooming out to the monthly chart, September marked SPY’s strongest performance since June, completely defying its typically bearish seasonality. The Combined RSI Ensemble Indicator ended the month with a yellow candle, signaling that at least one RSI length has crossed above 80 and may be entering overbought territory.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.36%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.55% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as investors wager that a resilient economy and further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will continue to underpin corporate earnings.
However, gains in equity futures are limited as the U.S. government shutdown extends into another week. Higher bond yields today are also limiting gains in stock index futures.
This week, investors will focus on developments surrounding the government shutdown, the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting, and comments from Fed officials.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed mixed. Humana (HUM) surged over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500, extending Thursday’s gains after it reaffirmed its full-year earnings guidance. Also, Rumble (RUM) jumped more than +15% after announcing a partnership with Perplexity to integrate the company’s AI tools to improve video discovery on its platform. In addition, USA Rare Earth (USAR) climbed over +14% after CEO Barbara Humpton told CNBC that the company was “in close communication” with the White House. On the bearish side, Palantir Technologies (PLTR) slid more than -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 following a report that the company’s battlefield communications system had serious flaws, a claim the company denied.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the U.S. ISM services index fell to a 4-month low of 50.0 in September, weaker than expectations of 51.8. At the same time, the U.S. September S&P Global services PMI was revised higher to 54.2 from the preliminary reading of 53.9.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reiterated on Friday that policymakers should move cautiously with rate cuts as they navigate pressure to balance their inflation and employment goals. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that the central bank remains further from achieving its inflation target than its maximum employment goal and reiterated that officials should take a cautious approach to cutting interest rates. In addition, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said, “With respect to the path of the policy rate going forward, I will continue to evaluate the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” Finally, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said he would revise his inflation outlook if housing costs were to jump unexpectedly.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 5.4% chance of no rate change at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
Investor attention this week will center on developments surrounding the U.S. government shutdown, with tensions likely to rise if President Trump proceeds with his threat to fire, rather than furlough, federal workers. If the shutdown continues, official U.S. economic data will likely be delayed, including August trade data on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday. However, several noteworthy economic releases are still anticipated, including the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index and the Fed’s Consumer Credit report. Should the shutdown end, delayed official data such as the September jobs report could be released during the week.
Market watchers will also parse the Fed’s minutes from the September 16-17 meeting, set for release on Wednesday, for insights into policymakers’ appetite for another rate cut. The FOMC cut interest rates last month for the first time this year, though subsequent public comments from various officials suggest there is division over how urgently further action should be taken.
“Any insights on the future policy rate path and views [on] the double-sided risks to employment and inflation will be closely watched by market participants,” HSBC economists said in a note.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will deliver pre-recorded welcoming remarks at the Community Bank Conference on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman are set to participate in a “fireside chat” at the event. Also, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Fed Governor Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will be making appearances throughout the week.
In addition, several notable companies, including soda and snack maker PepsiCo (PEP), carrier Delta Air Lines (DAL), Corona and Modelo parent Constellation Brands (STZ), and spice and condiments manufacturing firm McCormick & Company (MKC), are set to report their quarterly figures this week.
Meanwhile, e-commerce giant Amazon (AMZN) will host its Prime Big Deal Days sales event on October 7th-8th. Also, ChatGPT maker OpenAI will hold its DevDay developer conference later today, which analysts say may feature new announcements and updates.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.150%, up +0.73%.

Todays training will focus on ETF's. What are they? How do they compare to Mutual funds? How can you find the best ETF's for you? 

Let's take a look at the /ES intra-day levels we'll be focused on today.  Gamma is still positive (unlike /NQ) which should mean contained movement today. 

Intra-day levels.  6800 is still in play as heavy resistance. 

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly! 

This week we set a goal of consistency over profit. We are looking to make money EVERY SINGLE DAY, with no regard to the amount. It's been an interesting experiment. We are incorporating some training modules from the great Jessie Livermore each week as well. On next Mondays blog I'll post our metrics. What was the avg. buying power used. How much did we make. ROI, etc. We can then judge if our actions are worth while. Yesterday was another green day for us. Here's a look at the trades. 

With the Govt. still shut down  we have no NFP data to trade off today. How long will the shut down last? There are some interesting stats coming our of Kalshi.

The fear and greed index is basically asleep! 

Technicals are still firmly bullish 

Markets continue to sit perched up on their ATH's. Some would say, "Priced to perfection."

If we look at the VTI (which is my favorite gauge when we say, what is the "market" doing?) It looks like we've got some big Gamma walls working above current prices as potential resistance areas. MACD is flat. RSI and Stoch are overstretched to the upside. I'm looking for some weakness soon. 

​The SPX chart with seasonality scoring shows the index continuing its steady climb toward fresh highs, but the short-term seasonality score has been hovering near neutral after a recent dip into negative territory.
This suggests that while the broader trend remains supportive, near-term conditions could be more mixed, with seasonality not providing a strong tailwind.
Traders may want to stay alert for short bursts of volatility or potential consolidation before momentum reasserts itself. In the short term, monitoring whether the seasonality score can turn back positive could help confirm alignment with the ongoing price uptrend.

GEX levels are pretty strong at the 6800 level today. That will likely be where I start my trades for the day. 

​December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are trending up +0.31% this morning as another round of major AI deals and partnerships boosted sentiment.
Japan’s Hitachi formed a partnership with OpenAI on energy and related infrastructure. Also, Fujitsu expanded its collaboration with Nvidia. In addition, Bloomberg reported that Global Infrastructure Partners was in advanced talks to acquire Aligned Data Centers, targeting a major beneficiary of the AI spending boom. Investors are welcoming a wave of AI alliances, betting that the billions flowing into the sector will turn into profits.
Optimism surrounding AI is outweighing concerns about the U.S. government shutdown, which has entered its third day. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned on Thursday that the shutdown could be “a hit to growth.”
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. Fair Isaac (FICO) jumped over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after introducing new pricing models that will enable credit report providers to directly access FICO scores. Also, chip stocks advanced on AI optimism after South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix partnered with OpenAI, with Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising more than +3%. In addition, Celanese (CE) climbed about +7% after Citi upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $53. On the bearish side, Occidental Petroleum (OXY) slid more than -7% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after agreeing to sell its chemical division, OxyChem, for $9.7 billion to Berkshire Hathaway.
Data from the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas released on Thursday showed that companies announced plans to add 117,313 jobs last month, down 71% from a year earlier and marking the weakest September for hiring intentions since 2011. Separate data from Revelio Labs showed that employment rose by about 60,000 in September, marking an improvement from the previous month.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Thursday that new data from his staff indicates the labor market remains stable. “I think it indicates some steadiness in the labor market, and I think the underlying economy is still growing pretty solidly,” Goolsbee said. He reiterated that rates could be lowered “a fair amount” if policymakers gain confidence that inflation is moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target. Also, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she will approach further rate cuts with caution as inflation risks continue to outweigh the threat of higher unemployment. “My forecast has a little bit slower of a normalization of the policy path in order to make sure we get all the way to 2%. So it will take some time,” Logan said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at October’s monetary policy meeting.
On the trade front, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted a “pretty big breakthrough” in the next round of trade talks with China. 
In light of the government shutdown, the publication of September’s nonfarm payrolls report, average hourly earnings, and unemployment rate, originally set for today, will likely be delayed.
Still, the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global Services PMI will be released today. Economists expect the September ISM services index to be 51.8 and the S&P Global services PMI to be 53.9, compared to the previous values of 52.0 and 54.5, respectively.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, and Fed Governor Stephen Miran.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.092%, up +0.10%.

​

Dow Theory Crash Indicator: Every single major crash over the last 100 years had the same setup: DJIA hit a new high, but the transports failed to do the same (1929, 1937, 1966-1975, 1987, 2000, 2007, 2020). And when transports fail to confirm the DJIA high, the wheels come off the bus and all equities veer offroad and Thelma & Louise it off the nearest cliff. Why do I mention this? Well, low and behold, you`ll see the chart shows that`s it`s precisely where we are today...DJIA hit another ATH but transports have failed to reach their own new high, after last setting one in February. Transports currently sit 4% below that mark. Bulls with net long equity positions are very likely picking up pennies in front of a freight train barreling down the tracks. Do you feel lucky? ​

One other interesting stat. Since the inception of the VIX there has never been 5 consecutive days where the VIX rose along with $SPX. Today was the 4th. I.V. rising as markets rise is one of the strangest things happening in todays market.

Our training line up for next week: Monday we'll focus on ETF's. What are they? How do they work? How can we trade them? How can you build a watchlist and search and sort through them all? Weds. and Thurs. We'll be continuing our review of Jessie Livermore and his key take aways for trading. Please tune in at 2:00 P.M. EDT on those days.

My lean or bias today is more neutral. We've got a lot of positive Gamma which could keep us contained. I'm looking to start the day with an Iron fly, if that's the case.

Let's take a look at our intra-day levels on /ES: 

See you all in the live trading room shortly! Let's make it  a great day and have a great weekend! 

We got the Govt. shutdown, much as the predictive markets had implied and guess what? Mr. Market didn't seem to care. It looked like a text book reaction. Futures sell off on the news and the indices fight back as the day progresses. I got caught on the wrong side (short) on my initial /MNQ scalps but later flipped to QQQ calls and it worked out. We had a combination 0DTE/1DTE SPX trade. The 0DTE portion finished fully profitable. We'll need to likely work our 1DTE (now 0DTE) remaining parts today. Here's a look at my day. 

Let's take a look at this market. Nothing seems to be able to stop it's advance.
Technicals are bullish. Futures are solidly green, as I type. 

Anyone up for some new ATH's?

After 3 solid down days, where it looked like a rollover we a real possibility, we've had five consecutive days of strong finishes to not only push us back above that previous level but also take us to new ATH's. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.14%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.32% this morning, buoyed by hopes for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence.
Futures on the Nasdaq 100 outperformed after a deal propelled OpenAI to become the world’s most valuable startup, boosting AI optimism. OpenAI’s valuation jumped to $500 billion after current and former employees sold roughly $6.6 billion worth of stock. The ChatGPT owner also reached agreements with South Korea’s Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix to supply chips for its Stargate project, lifting chip-related stocks worldwide.
However, gains in U.S. equity futures are limited as the U.S. government shutdown continues. In a shutdown, government offices continue essential functions, but nonessential tasks are halted, paychecks are suspended, and many workers are furloughed until Congress passes new funding. The impact on both individuals and the economy hinges on whether the shutdown lasts for days or weeks, and on whether the White House proceeds with its plans to fire workers during the funding lapse. At a White House press conference on Wednesday, Vice President JD Vance said he does not expect the shutdown to last long, adding that layoffs will occur if it extends for days or weeks.
Key economic data that the Fed would normally take into account for policy is likely to be delayed, including Friday’s jobs report. A prolonged shutdown could also delay the release of U.S. inflation data scheduled for mid-October.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday that the absence of official data during the U.S. government shutdown will make it more difficult for policymakers to interpret the economy. The Fed is “going into a period where you’re trying to figure out: Is this a transition?” Goolsbee said. “And if you’re not going to get the data, it’s just that much harder.”
“The U.S. shutdown remains a huge story, and there’s still no sign of a climbdown from either side,” Deutsche Bank said.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notching new record highs. AES Corp. (AES) surged over +16% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Financial Times reported that BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners was nearing a $38 billion deal to buy the company. Also, pharmaceutical stocks extended their rally on optimism after Pfizer’s deal with the White House, with Biogen (BIIB) climbing more than +10% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and AstraZeneca Plc (AZN) rising over +9%. In addition, Nike (NKE) advanced more than +6% after the world’s largest sportswear company posted better-than-expected FQ1 results. On the bearish side, Corteva (CTVA) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company said it would split its seed and pesticide businesses into two separate companies.
The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -32K in September, weaker than expectations of +52K and the largest decline in 2-1/2 years. At the same time, the U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose to a 7-month high of 49.1 in September, stronger than expectations of 49.0. Also, the U.S. September S&P Global manufacturing PMI remained unrevised at 52.0, in line with expectations.
“Investors have been conditioned to buy the dip. The economic data was not good, but it was not horrible either, and it is enough to solidify a rate cut this month despite the hawkish tone that we have heard recently from most Fed governors,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management. “In the absence of further government data, the market has fully baked in an October cut, which is positive on the margin for the markets as interest rates appear on a glide path lower.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 100% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s monetary policy committee meeting later this month.
In other news, Fed Governor Lisa Cook will stay at the central bank until at least January after the Supreme Court issued a notice on Wednesday delaying a ruling on her termination.
Today, investors will focus on speeches from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
In light of the government shutdown, the publication of weekly jobless claims and August factory orders data, originally set for today, will likely be delayed.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.095%, down -0.32%.

My lean or bias today is slightly bullish. Everything certainly seems to continue to lean that way. We are five days into a bullish run so it is getting a bit long in the tooth.

Jessie Livermore is considered one of the greatest, most famous, or possibly infamous traders to ever have lived. He made (and lost) millions back in a time where millions was a lot! I'm going to start sharing some video trainings from his teachings, when we have time on our zoom sessions. Todays training segment has some tremendous wisdom. The video runs about 30 min. in length. Please tune in at 2:00 EDT.

Sometimes it seems so easy to spot bubbles and then...when not only does the bubble not pop but actually grows, you wonder what you are missing? As I was contemplating this conundrum yesterday, look what popped into my news feed. America Online was once worth $222 BILLION back in 1999. That is the equivalent of almost $500 BILLION today when adjusted for inflation. Today, AOL got sold for $1.4B… From $500B to $1.4B. All bubbles pop...eventually but you all know the saying. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly. Having another good training session and getting some good trades working today! 

Predictive markets like Kalsi were right, once again. We got the predicted shutdown. Futures tanked initially and are working their way back, as I type. What does this mean? Is it another crack in this bull market that can get a true bearish trend going? Or is it a buy the dip opportunity? I must confess. I am not a "buy the dip" type trader. Every retrace. Every weakness. Every red day to me looks like the potential for a reversal. I don't worry too much about up trends but downtrends? Those are what I mostly focus on. This shutdown is an exception. We've looked at the historical shut down data here in this blog a few days ago. We know the numbers and probabilities. Generally speaking, any sell off related to Govt. shutdowns has been a wonderful buying opportunity. Will the market finish green today? Still way too early to tell but my bet is we shake this off. That being said...I'd still prefer a selloff! LOL.

Yesterday was a very slow day. We are hyper focused this week on consistency vs. dollar profit and one of our main mantras, "Don't let green turn to red"  We didn't get much working yesterday but we were able to stay green on everything. That's our goal this week... Profits every day.  Here's a look at our day. 

We got ADP numbers that were a bit of a shock to the futures. PMI will come out shortly...then nothing. No NFP this week until we get the Govt. open. 

​Let's take a look at the market. Yesterday was somewhat flat. We continue to bounce around our ATH's. 

Buy mode is still holding on. 

The market needs "something". Something to fuel the bulls to greater ATH's or something to get the bears engaged again. We're just treading water here. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending down -0.56% this morning as sentiment took a hit after the U.S. government shut down for the first time in seven years.
The U.S. government shut down after a midnight funding deadline as the White House and lawmakers failed to reach a spending deal. The shutdown is expected to pause some federal services and place hundreds of thousands of federal employees on furlough. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that roughly 750,000 employees will be furloughed, costing $400 million per day in lost compensation, which could curb spending and negatively impact the economy. Notably, key economic data will not be released during the shutdown, with Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and Friday’s payrolls report immediately at risk. However, ADP private payroll figures and the ISM manufacturing PMI are still scheduled for release later today.
“Government shutdowns in the U.S. are rarely market-moving in and of themselves, but the timing matters. This one comes at a point where the Fed is data-dependent. The absence of clean data can increase volatility,” said Nina Stanojevic, investment specialist at St James’s Place. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green. Pfizer (PFE) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after CEO Albert Bourla said the company secured a three-year exemption from President Trump’s proposed tariffs on pharmaceuticals in a deal that would reduce some of its U.S. drug prices by up to 85%. Also, CoreWeave (CRWV) surged more than +11% after announcing a $14.2 billion AI cloud-computing deal with Meta Platforms. In addition, EchoStar (SATS) rose over +3% after Bloomberg reported that Verizon was in talks with the company about purchasing some of its wireless spectrum. On the bearish side, Albemarle (ALB) slumped more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 following news that China approved the restart of the CATL mine, which had been halted since August.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings rose to 7.227 million in August, stronger than expectations of 7.190 million. Also, the U.S. July S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. eased to +1.8% y/y from +2.2% y/y in June (revised from +2.1% y/y), stronger than expectations of +1.7% y/y. At the same time, the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to a 5-month low of 94.2 in September, weaker than expectations of 96.0. In addition, the U.S. Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell to 40.6 in September, weaker than expectations of 43.4.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson on Tuesday cautioned that the central bank is confronting a weakening labor market at the same time as inflation pressures rise, complicating the monetary policy outlook. Still, he said, “The unemployment rate could edge a bit higher this year before moving back down next year,” adding that he expects “the disinflation process to resume after this year and inflation to return to the 2% target in the coming years.” Also, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said additional rate cuts could be appropriate this year, given a weaker labor market, but emphasized that officials must remain vigilant against the risk of persistent inflation. “It may be appropriate to ease the policy rate a bit further this year, but the data will have to show that,” Collins said. In addition, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said officials should exercise caution in considering further rate cuts while inflation remains above target and the labor market remains relatively balanced.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 5.4% chance of no rate change at the next FOMC meeting in October.
Today, investors will focus on the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. In light of the government shutdown, the report may serve as the only broad, nationwide measure of job growth until Bureau of Labor Statistics operations resume. Economists, on average, forecast that the September ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 52K, compared to the August figure of 54K.
The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect the September ISM manufacturing index to be 49.0 and the S&P Global manufacturing PMI to be 52.0, compared to the previous values of 48.7 and 53.0, respectively.
U.S. Construction Spending data will be reported today. Economists forecast the August figure at -0.1% m/m, the same as in July.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 1.5 million, compared to last week’s value of -0.6 million.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.153%, up +0.12%.

We had a good training session on Monday this week, and one component was breadth analysis with multiple time frames. That got a lot of good feedback, and I wanted to expand on that by adding the $TICK into the mix. We may have time today (dependent on whether we do a 0DTE or 1DTE entry) to review that further. If not, we'll do it on tomorrow's Zoom. Please make sure to tune in and ask questions. These sessions are beneficial for helping us all become better traders. 

​The SPX chart shows spot prices trending near recent highs while the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) has climbed to 5.4%, placing implied volatility in the “overvalued” zone with a 3-month percentile above 90%.
This combination suggests that option premiums remain elevated relative to realized volatility, a sign of cautious positioning in the near term. In the short run, such stretched VRP readings often coincide with market hesitation, where either consolidation or sharper moves can occur as traders recalibrate risk.
Monitoring whether the VRP sustains above 5% or begins to compress will be key for gauging the momentum behind this rally’s next step.

There are now officially more ETF's than there are stocks! I want to go over some of the most interesting ETF's to put on your watch list in one of the next training sessions. 

I look forward to seeing you all shortly in our live trading room! 

We had a good training session yesterday talking about the difference between shooting for big dollar profits vs. consistently being profitable. The quote we used was, "It's harder to make $50-$100 dollars a day, every day, for the rest of your life than making $10,000 dollars in a few hours." It's absolutely true. Once again this week, we are working on our consistency over profit amount. We had a good start yesterday were we deployed very little capital and still had a solid day. Here's a look at our results. 

Let's take a look at the markets.  Buy mode still clinging on.

Not much to take out of yesterdays session. It didn't really help the bull or bear case.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.23%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.14% this morning as investors grew anxious with the deadline to avert a U.S. government shutdown approaching.
Democratic leaders and President Trump engaged in last-minute talks on Monday but failed to reach a deal to prevent a shutdown. U.S. lawmakers have until midnight to pass a federal spending bill. Vice President JD Vance said he thinks the U.S. government is headed toward a shutdown. Many federal operations will pause, and nonessential employees will be furloughed or fired in the event of a shutdown. Notably, Friday’s payroll report will be postponed if the Department of Labor follows an operational contingency plan outlined earlier this year.
Later today, investors will focus on the latest reading on U.S. job openings and comments from Federal Reserve officials. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed higher. Chip stocks advanced, with GlobalFoundries (GFS) and Micron Technology (MU) rising over +4%. Also, Applovin (APP) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Phillip Securities initiated coverage of the stock with an Accumulate rating and $725 price target. In addition, Merus N.V. (MRUS) jumped nearly +36% after Genmab agreed to acquire the company for about $8 billion in cash. On the bearish side, Carnival (CCL) slid about -4% even as the company posted better-than-expected FQ3 results and raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. pending home sales climbed +4.0% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m and the biggest increase in 5 months.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Monday that the U.S. central bank must keep a restrictive monetary policy stance to bring inflation down to its 2% target. “My forecast is that we’re going to remain above target for probably the next one to two years, and not really getting back down to our objective of 2% until the end of 2027 or early 2028,” Hammack said. At the same time, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he is open to additional interest rate cuts, but emphasized that policymakers should proceed carefully, with inflation still above the central bank’s target. In addition, New York Fed President John Williams said that inflation risks have diminished, while employment risks have increased. However, he did not indicate whether he might support another rate cut in October.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 90.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 9.7% chance of no rate change at the next central bank meeting in October.
In tariff news, President Trump signed a proclamation on Monday to impose 10% tariffs on imported timber and lumber and 25% tariffs on upholstered wooden furniture products and kitchen cabinets, effective October 14th. Tariffs on furniture products will increase to 30% at the beginning of 2026, and tariffs on cabinets will rise to 50%, according to an executive order.
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the August JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.190 million, compared to the July figure of 7.181 million.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which came in at 97.4 in August. Economists expect the September figure to be 96.0.
The U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. will be reported today. Economists expect the July figure to ease to +1.7% y/y from +2.1% y/y in June.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists forecast the September figure at 43.4, compared to the previous value of 41.5.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan throughout the day.
On the earnings front, shoemaker Nike (NKE) and payroll processing firm Paychex (PAYX) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.130%, down -0.27%.

My lean or bias today is slightly bearish. There's no real technical signal that's bearish but we do have the Government shutdown potential hanging over the market. If we do get a bullish day I think it will be somewhat subdued. 

​The SPX chart shows prices holding near recent highs after a steady climb, but the option score has been fluctuating sharply, dipping into low territory multiple times through September.
This suggests that while spot prices remain resilient, options positioning indicates uncertainty and shifting sentiment in the short term. Traders may want to keep an eye on whether the option score stabilizes above mid-levels, which would support continued momentum, or if repeated drops signal a potential short-term pullback.
The near-term action looks poised for choppiness as positioning catches up with price levels.

Let's see if we can bring our winning streak to two days in a row! See you all shortly.

These are just a few of the news items we are watching this week. After three decisive down days and a losing week last week for the markets, they are looking to rebound. Can the bulls take back over? We aren't far from our ATH's. Futures are up strongly this morning. We also have Tesla car sales results Weds. The stock has really stretched itself in the last two weeks. The numbers should be bad. How the market interprets that, though? That's anyone's guess. Musk has done a good job of moving focus away from autos to Robo taxis, Robots and A.I. 

We've also got a government shutdown looming. We've gotten used to the last-minute brinkmanship that comes with these events, only for them to be solved at the last moment. This time may be different. Both sides of the aisle seem willing to let this happen. What will that do to the markets? Here's a look at how that has historically played out. 

Historically, the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has shown remarkable resilience to federal government shutdowns, with performance during these events averaging near zero percent and often turning positive in the months following resolution. Since 1976, there have been 20 shutdowns lasting at least one day, with an average duration of about 8 days. The median return during these periods has been effectively flat (0%), though outcomes vary by event—ranging from declines of around 4% in some cases to gains exceeding 10% in others. Longer shutdowns (e.g., 10+ days) have occasionally coincided with slightly more negative median returns of about -2%, but post-shutdown rebounds are common, with average gains of 2.6% three months later and 7.5% six months later across all events.To illustrate, here's a table summarizing S&P 500 total returns for all 20 shutdowns since 1976, based on data through early 2019 (the most recent major event):

​Shorter shutdowns (1-3 days, which account for over half of all events) tend to have negligible impact, while the longest—the 35-day 2018-2019 shutdown—saw the S&P 500 rise 10.3% amid broader market momentum. Economic effects are typically temporary, trimming GDP growth by 0.1-0.2% per week of closure, but markets often "look through" the noise, prioritizing fundamentals like earnings and interest rates over political gridlock.A slightly different dataset focusing on 10 notable shutdowns since 1981 (excluding very brief ones) shows an average during-return of 1.5% and a median of 0.5%, with 12-month post-shutdown gains averaging 19.1%. Notable outliers include the 1995-1996 events (totaling 27 days across two), where markets were flat during but gained 18-23% over the following year.In the current environment as of September 2025, with a potential shutdown looming over funding disputes, historical patterns suggest limited lasting damage—though some analysts note the weaker economic backdrop could amplify short-term volatility compared to past cycles. Overall, shutdowns have rarely derailed bull markets and have even coincided with gains in resilient periods.

We had an O.K. day on Friday. My last SPX entry lost but over all we were profitable again on the day. Here's a look at the day. 

Let's take a look at the markets to start this new week. Technicals are back to bullish!

Bulls came fighting back on Friday. Futures are up this morning.

​SPY ended the week mostly unchanged at $661.82 (-0.27%), continuing to hold above key support. Price has bounced several times off the Short line of the Dynamo Cloud Indicator, a trend-following tool that combines volatility-adjusted moving averages with momentum to visualize trend direction and strength. If SPY remains above the green cloud, bulls may be eyeing the next major target near the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

​The SPX supertrend breadth chart shows that the index remains near recent highs, while the number of stocks generating buy signals has been trending lower.
This indicates that fewer individual stocks are participating in the rally compared to earlier periods. The divergence between index levels and breadth readings highlights current market dynamics: the index continues to perform strongly overall, but the underlying participation appears narrower.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.48%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.63% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as Treasury yields moved lower, while investors await U.S. President Donald Trump’s high-stakes meeting with congressional leaders to prevent a government shutdown.
Top congressional leaders will meet with President Trump at the White House one day before federal funding lapses if the two parties fail to agree on a short-term spending bill. Republicans aim to pass a seven-week stopgap spending bill before negotiating any deals, while Democrats are demanding billions in healthcare funding before agreeing to a GOP plan. Raising the stakes, White House budget director Russ Vought directed agencies to prepare lists of employees to fire if funding lapses, going beyond the temporary furloughs and missed paychecks seen in past shutdowns.
This week, investors also look ahead to remarks from Federal Reserve officials as well as a slew of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. However, in the event of a federal government shutdown, the jobs report will be postponed if the Department of Labor follows an operational contingency plan outlined earlier this year.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the green. Electronic Arts (EA) surged over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after The Wall Street Journal reported that the company was in advanced talks to go private in a roughly $50 billion deal. Also, chip stocks rallied after The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration was considering a policy requiring U.S. firms to manufacture domestically as many chips as they import, with GlobalFoundries (GFS) climbing more than +8% and Intel (INTC) rising over +4%. In addition, Paccar (PCAR) advanced more than +5% after President Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of heavy trucks. On the bearish side, Costco Wholesale (COST) fell over -2% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the bulk retailer reported weaker-than-expected FQ4 U.S. comparable sales growth.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Friday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y in August, in line with expectations. Also, U.S. August personal spending climbed +0.6% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.5% m/m, and personal income rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
“Despite another month of elevated inflation, [Friday’s] PCE report was in-line across the board. That gives investors some relief that the current status quo will remain intact, and that the Fed will remain on track to cut rates two more times this year,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro. 
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Friday that although both unemployment and inflation have diverged from the targets, he sees only limited risk of further deterioration. At the same time, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman reaffirmed her stance that officials should act “decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility.”
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Monday that the U.S. central bank must keep a restrictive monetary policy stance to bring inflation down to its 2% target. “It’s a challenging time for monetary policy. We are being challenged on both sides of our mandate,” Hammack said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 10.7% chance of no rate change at the conclusion of the Fed’s October meeting.
The U.S. September Nonfarm Payrolls report will be the main highlight this week. Recent soft labor market data prompted the Fed to lower interest rates at its latest meeting, and many expect additional rate cuts in the coming months. HSBC analysts anticipate another “soft” nonfarm payrolls report, which they say would effectively “rubber stamp” a rate cut in October. Analysts also noted that any revisions to prior data will be scrutinized following significant downward revisions in recent months. Ahead of the key jobs report, additional insights into the health of the U.S. labor market will come from the JOLTs Job Openings, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change, and Initial Jobless Claims. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the Chicago PMI, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, Factory Orders, Average Hourly Earnings, the S&P Global Services PMI, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the Unemployment Rate.
Market participants will also parse comments from a slew of Fed officials. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak this week.
In addition, several notable companies, including shoemaker Nike (NKE), cruise ship operator Carnival (CCL), payroll processing firm Paychex (PAYX), and snack maker ConAgra Brands (CAG), are slated to release their quarterly results this week.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Pending Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the August figure to rise +0.2% m/m following a -0.4% m/m drop in July.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.143%, down -1.05%.

Friday was a strong save for the bulls but... volume was down 35% and Utilities had most of the strength. Not a great look if you're bullish. 

My lean or bias today is bullish. It looks like the bulls have found a support area they'd like to protect. Futures are up this morning. We have some FED talk but not much else that should stand in the bulls way. 

We've got our weekly training session scheduled for today at 12:00 pm MDT. Today's focus will be on building consistency in your results. Please join us on the live zoom feed to participate!

Let's take a look at our intra-day levels on /ES: 
The daily chart doesn't tell us much. Price action is bullish but MACD and Stoch are neutral to slightly overstretched.

It's always a pleasure to be back with you all trading a new week. I'll see you in the live trading room shortly!

Cracks are starting to show in the market. They're not big. Nothing major but it's starting. Will it build into something bigger? Who knows but what leads us up leads us down.

A.I., Tech. All the stuff that's held us higher is now carrying us lower. My favorite trade of the last six months, that I've shared many, many times with our trading room members is the "Short MYST, Long BTC" trade. Was there ever a better short than the ponzi scheme MSTY? It's been easy money. 

Junk like MSTY can't survive in sane markets. It's needs to be frothy. When you see scams like this perpetrated on gullible retail investors it's usually a sign were at a top.

We had a picture perfect day yesterday. I've always said a perfect day contains #1. Big moves. #2. Preferably down. The best markets are down ones. Bigger moves. Better premium.

Let's take a look at the markets: We've had three glorious days to the downside. 6615 is really where bears need to take us to really make something of this. Otherwise its just a blip in an otherwise clean bull run.

We are still holding to a slight sell signal, but just barely.

The bears are trying. We've got PCE today which could determine todays outcome. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.03% this morning as investors weigh U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest tariff salvo and await the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge for clues on the central bank’s next policy move.
After a stretch of calm on the tariff front, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of sectoral tariffs set to take effect on October 1st. President Trump said pharmaceutical companies would face a 100% tariff on branded or patented drugs. “Starting October 1st, 2025, we will be imposing a 100% Tariff on any branded or patented Pharmaceutical Product, unless a Company IS BUILDING their Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Plant in America,” Trump posted on Truth Social. Also, imported heavy trucks will face a 25% tariff, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities will be hit with a 50% duty, and upholstered furniture imports will be taxed at 30%.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed lower. CarMax (KMX) tumbled over -20% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the used-car seller posted downbeat Q2 results. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Arm Holdings (ARM) and ON Semiconductor (ON) falling more than -2%. In addition, Oracle (ORCL) slumped over -5% after Rothschild & Co. Redburn initiated coverage of the stock with a Sell rating and $175 price target. On the bullish side, Intel (INTC) surged over +8% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 following reports that Apple and TSMC were among the companies the chipmaker had approached about investments or manufacturing partnerships.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Thursday that Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to +3.8% (q/q annualized) in its third estimate, stronger than expectations of no change at +3.3%. Also, U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose +2.9% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of -0.3% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, unexpectedly rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m. In addition, U.S. existing home sales fell -0.2% m/m to 4.00 million in August, stronger than expectations of 3.96 million. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -14K to a 2-month low of 218K, compared with the 233K expected.
“We agree that the economy is strong and growing, but a lot of that good news is already priced in. Where we have our largest concern is with valuations,” said Chris Zaccarelli at Northlight Asset Management.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Thursday that the central bank risks harming the economy if it does not act quickly to cut interest rates. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that inflation is close enough to the central bank’s 2% target to justify additional rate cuts given the weakening labor market. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee voiced continued concerns about tariff-driven inflation and opposed any push for “front-loading” multiple interest rate cuts. In addition, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid indicated that policymakers may not need to cut interest rates again in the near term.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 87.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 12.3% chance of no rate change at the October FOMC meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y in August, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y.
“If we were to see an uptick, that could worry investors that the Fed’s rate cut expectations are too ambitious, and that they may need to establish more of a wait-and-see approach on rates,” said Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate August Personal Spending to rise +0.5% m/m and Personal Income to grow +0.3% m/m, compared to the July figures of +0.5% m/m and +0.4% m/m, respectively.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists expect the final September figure to be revised slightly higher to 55.5 from the preliminary reading of 55.4.
In addition, market participants will parse comments today from Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.170%, down -0.10%.

Let's have a good day folks! See you in the live trading room shortly!

When you get three successive down days where the lows of the day surpass the previous days low, you get a "three black crows" signal. It's bearish. Today could be the completion of that pattern. There's lots of day left so it's too early to tell but the bearish retrace we've been wanting could be at our doorsteps.

One of our key mantras is " Don't let green turn to red". I did that yesterday. We should of just stopped with the profit we had. Here's a look at my day: 

Let's take a look at the new market dynamic. Today is a key day. Another red day today and we've got an official trend going.

We've got a rare "sell" signal forming. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.28%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.40% this morning, pointing to more weakness on Wall Street after two days of losses, while investors await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from bulk retailer Costco.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the red. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) tumbled nearly -17% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the miner cut its Q3 copper and gold sales guidance and declared force majeure on contracted copper supplies from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia. Also, Bloom Energy (BE) plunged more than -10% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Underperform from Hold with a price target of $31. In addition, Adobe (ADBE) fell over -2% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight. On the bullish side, Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbed more than +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor company’s board authorized a new $5 billion share repurchase program.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. new home sales unexpectedly surged +20.5% m/m to a 3-1/2-year high of 800K in August, stronger than expectations of 650K.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday voiced disappointment that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has not clearly outlined an agenda for lowering interest rates. “Rates are too restrictive; they need to come down,” Bessent said in an interview on Fox Business. “I’m a bit surprised that the chair hasn’t signaled that we have a destination before the end of the year of at least 100 to 150 basis points.”
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that more interest rate cuts will likely be needed, but noted that policymakers should proceed carefully. “It is likely that further policy adjustments will be needed as we work to restore price stability while providing needed support to the labor market,” Daly said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 91.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut and an 8.1% chance of no rate change at October’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Commerce Department’s final estimate of gross domestic product. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data. Economists expect August Durable Goods Orders to drop -0.3% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders to fall -0.1% m/m, compared to the prior figures of -2.8% m/m and +1.1% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 3.96 million in August, compared to 4.01 million in July.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will come in today. Economists forecast the preliminary August figure at +0.2% m/m, compared to +0.1% m/m in July.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 233K, compared to last week’s number of 231K.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, New York Fed President John Williams, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Michael Barr, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly throughout the day.
On the earnings front, notable companies such as Costco (COST), Accenture (ACN), Jabil Circuit (JBL), and CarMax (KMX) are set to report their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.140%, down -0.19%.

​The SPX remains near recent highs around the 6,650 level, but the latest pullback alongside a dip in the option score hints at waning short-term conviction.
Option sentiment has generally held in the mid-to-upper range over the past month, providing support to the broader trend, but recent fluctuations suggest choppier positioning as traders reassess momentum.
In the short term, price action around 6,600–6,650 will be key in gauging whether this consolidation turns into a stronger push higher or if volatility re-emerges with a test of lower support levels.

​The NDX liquidity snapshot shows a last price of 24,504 with a modest dip on the day, though overall conditions remain constructive. A positive gamma backdrop combined with bullish momentum indicates that options positioning may help stabilize price action in the near term.
Implied volatility at 18.64% sits notably above historical volatility of 10.63%, reflecting heightened demand for protection or speculative positioning, while a low IV rank of 15.59% suggests volatility is still relatively contained compared to longer-term levels.
With the 1-day expected move at ±1.17%, short-term flows could remain active, especially as traders react to shifts in volatility pricing.

Has anyone else noticed, as prices go higher and continue to hit new ATH's, momentum is starting to swing downward?

We had a good training yesterday on ADX. It's one of our favorite indicators for intra-day trading. I'm looking forward to next Monday. We'll have a whole new topic to train on. Please join us on the live zoom feed then.

Let's take a look at the new levels that have formed in the /ES. I don't know about you, but for me that's a pretty clean looking sell signal we've developed on the daily chart.

I always say, " a perfect day for us involves lots of movement...preferably down." That looks like what we may get today! I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly.

Well...thanks for that Mr. Powell. We had our day all mapped out yesterday. We waited through the first two FED speakers. We waited through the PMI release. I calculated that Powell would stick to the same script as his FOMC testimony and we'd get a rally. I put on a bullish debit in anticipation. I should have waited. He DID largely stick to the script UNTIL it got the the Q&A. Powell is asked about the stock market nearly every time he speaks and he ALWAYS says, "we don't comment on the stock market". Well, he certainly did yesterday! Calling it "fairly highly valued". That's an indirect way of saying it's over priced and needs to come down. Come down it did. I had about $1,300 at risk and was able to scale another bullish debit into the setup before the close to cut the loss but it still finished red. Overall I'm happy I was able to mitigate the risk but upset I didn't just wait it out. Today is a new day. Here's a look at my day.

Let's take a look at the markets. It felt like a big drawdown in the moment but that's only because we haven't gone down in a while. All that really happened yesterday was a give back of the previous days gains. Could this be a turning point in the market? Sure. For me, unless we get some confirmed additional weakness today I'd say it's back to business as usual for the bulls.

Technicals moved to neutral after yesterdays selloff but are back to a slight buy signal to start the morning. It will be interesting to see if bears can make something out of yesterdays price action today.

​December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are trending up +0.30% this morning as optimism over artificial intelligence was reinforced by Alibaba’s pledge to boost spending and an upbeat forecast from Micron Technology.
U.S.-listed shares of Alibaba Group (BABA) surged over +9% in pre-market trading after the Chinese e-commerce giant announced it would boost AI spending beyond its initial $53 billion target and released its largest AI language model to date. Also, Micron Technology (MU) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after the largest U.S. maker of computer memory chips posted upbeat FQ4 results and issued above-consensus FQ1 guidance.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks retreated, with Amazon.com (AMZN) sliding over -3% to lead losers in the Dow and Nvidia (NVDA) falling more than -2%. Also, Vistra Corp. (VST) dropped over -6% and was among the top percentage losers on the S&P 500 after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. In addition, Firefly Aerospace (FLY) plunged more than -15% after the rocket developer posted weaker-than-expected Q2 results. On the bullish side, McKesson (MCK) climbed over +6% after the healthcare services company raised its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 52.0 in September, weaker than expectations of 52.2. Also, the U.S. September S&P Global services PMI fell to 53.9, weaker than expectations of 54.0. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -17 in September, weaker than expectations of -5.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that risks remain for both the labor market and inflation, reiterating that policymakers likely face a difficult path ahead as they consider additional rate cuts. “Near-term risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside — a challenging situation,” Powell said. The Fed chief did not indicate whether he might support a rate cut at the central bank’s next meeting.
“Powell doesn’t want to antagonize the White House, but he’s not rolling over either,” said David Russell at TradeStation. “He’s keeping his options open in case price pressures increase. Powell’s not trying to sound hawkish, but he’s trying to dodge some of the forceful demand for aggressive cuts.”
Also speaking on Tuesday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policymakers should remain cautious about further rate cuts as inflation is above the central bank’s target and rising. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic echoed remarks from his Chicago counterpart, saying he anticipates more inflation coming. At the same time, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said, “Now that we have seen many months of deteriorating labor market conditions, it is time for the FOMC to act decisively and proactively to address decreasing labor market dynamism and emerging signs of fragility.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 94.1% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 5.9% chance of no rate change at the October FOMC meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. New Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that August new home sales will stand at 650K, compared to 652K in July.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be 0.8 million, compared to last week’s value of -9.3 million.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.110%, down -0.24%.

Today we'll have our training class on ADX and ATR that we missed on Monday. Come join us around 12:00 pm MDT.

​The SPX continues to grind higher toward fresh highs, with volatility risk premium (VRP) climbing to 5.6%, placing implied volatility in the “overvalued” zone relative to realized moves.
The elevated VRP suggests options markets are pricing in more risk than spot action has delivered, which can sometimes precede periods of consolidation or choppier trading.
In the short term, keeping an eye on whether VRP remains stretched or begins to compress will be important for gauging if momentum can extend cleanly higher or if markets pause to digest recent gains.

I'll see you all in our live trading room shortly!