Welcome to Friday! Today is a big triple-witching day.  Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. According to Bloomberg, a record $7.1 trillion in notional open interest is set to roll off today as contracts expire across the U.S. options market. Expect some volatility and gamma squeezing going on into the close.

We had a solid day yesterday. Here's a look at our results.

Let's take a look at the markets. We start the day with a neutral technical rating. I wasn't impressed with the bullish effort yesterday. I believe the downtrend is still in play.

Those all important 50/20DMA are still in play. The QQQ's sit just below them (bearish), and the SPY is sitting right between the two (bearish). Bulls will need a decent, clean move today to clear these hurdles.​

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.04% this morning as global bond yields climbed following the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike.
The 10-year T-note yield rose three basis points to 4.15% on negative carryover from a jump in 10-year Japanese bond yields to the highest level since 1999 after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a three-decade high.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed higher. Micron Technology (MU) surged over +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the largest U.S. memory-chip maker posted upbeat FQ1 results and gave a blowout FQ2 forecast. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks advanced, with Tesla (TSLA) rising more than +3% and Amazon.com (AMZN) gaining over +2%. In addition, Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) jumped more than +41% after announcing a merger with TAE Technologies in an all-stock transaction valued at over $6 billion. On the bearish side, FactSet Research Systems (FDS) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company issued soft FY26 revenue guidance.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Thursday showed that the CPI rose +2.7% y/y in November, weaker than expectations of +3.1% y/y. Also, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, rose +2.6% y/y in November, weaker than expectations of +3.0% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -10.2 in December, weaker than expectations of 2.5. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell by -13K to 224K, in line with expectations.
“November’s inflation undershoot has armed Fed doves with strong ammunition for a January rate cut,” said Seema Shah at Principal Asset Management. “Distortions can’t be ruled out, but the sharp drop in annual inflation leaves the Fed with little excuse not to respond to rising unemployment.”
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 75.6% probability of no rate change and a 24.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at January’s monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their current positions or initiate new ones. According to Bloomberg, a record $7.1 trillion in notional open interest is set to roll off today as contracts expire across the U.S. options market.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists anticipate that the final December figure will be revised higher to 53.5 from the preliminary reading of 53.3.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will also be released today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 4.15 million in November, compared to 4.10 million in October.
Investors will also monitor earnings reports from several notable companies, with Paychex (PAYX), Carnival Corp. (CCL), and Conagra Brands (CAG) set to report their quarterly results today.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from New York Fed President John Williams.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.149%, up +0.85%.

Market manipulation and the great bitcoin "decoupling" is of great interest to me. 

We are seeing MASSIVE swings in markets right now: Between 11:55 AM ET and 12:25 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$450 billion in market cap. 23 minutes later and $320 billion in market cap has been added back. That's a $720 BILLION swing in market cap in under 1 hour. ​

Let's finish the week off strong! See you all in the live trading room shortly. 

We lost both the 50 and 20 DMA yesterday on the SPY and the QQQ. That's a pretty bearish sign. It's "only" been four straight days of downward movement but it's been consistent . Futures are green this early morning and I wouldn't be surprised to see a green day after a week of selling but the downward overall trend is pretty entrenched now. Are we still looking for a Christmas rally? 

We didn't have much to work on yesterday and so I kept risk low on the SPX. I did go big on scalping and that cost me. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
In spite of futures being up as I type, the technicals are still flashing bearish.  CPI numbers will be the initial driver this morning so futures don't matter too much. 

December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.46%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.74% this morning as forecast-beating quarterly results and guidance from Micron boosted sentiment.
Micron Technology (MU) surged over +10% in pre-market trading after the largest U.S. memory-chip maker posted upbeat FQ1 results and gave a blowout FQ2 forecast.
Lower bond yields today are also supporting stock index futures.
Investor focus now turns to delayed U.S. inflation data for November.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended in the red. AI-infrastructure stocks slumped, with GE Vernova (GEV) plunging over -10% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Constellation Energy (CEG) sliding more than -6% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, chip stocks slipped, with ARM Holdings (ARM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) falling over -5%. In addition, Lennar (LEN) slid over -4% after the homebuilder posted weaker-than-expected FQ4 adjusted EPS and issued soft FQ1 new orders guidance. On the bullish side, Texas Pacific Land (TPL) climbed more than +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the landowner announced a strategic agreement with Bolt Data & Energy to develop data center campuses on Texas Pacific property in West Texas.
“The AI trade continues to take on water,” said Jonathan Krinsky at BTIG. “While it’s still premature to say this is ‘the’ top for AI stocks, evidence is growing that it’s more than just a speed bump. The other question is if, in fact, AI is losing its leadership, where will new leadership be?”
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday he supports additional interest rate cuts to bring the central bank’s setting back to neutral, while noting there is no need to move hastily. “Because inflation is still up, we can take our time — there’s no rush to get down,” Waller said in a CNBC forum. Outlining a scenario in which inflation continues to ease through 2026, Waller said monetary policy settings remain as much as 100 basis points above neutral. At the same time, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that while it is a “close call,” inflation currently poses a greater concern than the labor market.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 73.4% chance of no rate change and a 26.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in January.
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. consumer inflation report for November, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Notably, the report will have no monthly changes for most price categories, providing only a partial snapshot of inflation. That’s because the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it was unable to retroactively obtain much of the October price data, and November data collection was also delayed by the government shutdown. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. November CPI will come in at +3.1% y/y, compared to +3.0% y/y in September. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +3.0% y/y in November, unchanged from September.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 36% of investors expect a “risk-on” market reaction to the CPI report, 46% anticipate a “mixed/negligible” response, and just 18% expect a “risk-off” reaction.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will also be closely monitored today. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 224K, compared to last week’s number of 236K.
The U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists anticipate that the Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 2.5 in December, compared to last month’s value of -1.7.
On the earnings front, high-profile companies such as Accenture (ACN), Nike (NKE), Cintas (CTAS), and FedEx (FDX) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.129%, down -0.48%.

Did you watch Bitcoin yesterday?  We got a small 1HTE trade on. I'm not a big conspiracy guy but you've got to wonder what's happening. ​You can’t make this up: Bitcoin just surged +$3,000 in 1 hour and reclaimed $90,000 as $120 million worth of levered shorts were liquidated. Minutes later, $200 million worth of levered longs were liquidated, with Bitcoin now down to $86,000. That’s a $140 BILLION swing in market cap in under 2 hours. Leverage is out of control.

Part II today on trader biases. Come join us in our live zoom feed!

I look forward to seeing you all in the live zoom shortly! 

Welcome back folks. We had a perfect day yesterday. Multiple entries. They all worked. Our levels were spot on and yet, We couldn't put much capital to work and thus, our dollar profit was low. It should have been an $800 dollar profit day but the trades that worked didn't quite work enough!
That's alright. We did our job of trading to trade well. The profit (or loss) will fall where it may. It's just strange. We do have a continuation trade on the SPY from yesterday. 
​That's a small $158 dollar risk for a potential $442 profit so that could enhance what we did yesterday. 

Here's a look at our day: 

Our ATM portfolio did hit another ATH yesterday. As we get closer to the end of the year's reporting it looks like we have a real shot at 30%+ ROI for the year. Almost double the market. It would also enhance our yearly avg. return of 26%. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
After a few days of red the bulls look like they may want to show up today. We've got a slight buy signal technically to start off the morning. 

After three pretty solid red days the bulls are looking to take back some territory this morning. That would be good for our SPY trade.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.27% this morning as investors continue to digest the latest U.S. jobs data, while also awaiting remarks from Federal Reserve officials and an earnings report from semiconductor giant Micron.
Oil prices climbed more than +2% after President Trump ordered a full blockade of all sanctioned tankers entering and leaving Venezuela. “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America,” Trump posted on Truth Social. The move marks a significant escalation and comes after U.S. forces seized an oil tanker off the country’s coast last week, heightening concerns over prolonged supply disruptions in the region.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Energy stocks slumped as the price of WTI crude dropped over -3%, with Phillips 66 (PSX) sliding over -6% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Baker Hughes (BKR) falling about -4% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. Also, Humana (HUM) slipped over -6% after the managed-care company reaffirmed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance that fell short of expectations. In addition, Pfizer (PFE) fell more than -3% after the drugmaker issued below-consensus FY26 adjusted EPS guidance. On the bullish side, Comcast (CMCSA) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after CNBC cited swaps-market trading activity that may suggest involvement by activist investors.
The U.S. Labor Department’s report on Tuesday showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by +64K in November after declining by -105K in October. At the same time, the U.S. unemployment rate rose to a 4-year high of 4.6% in November, weaker than expectations of 4.5%. Also, U.S. November average hourly earnings rose +0.1% m/m and +3.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y. In addition, U.S. retail sales were unchanged m/m in October, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m, while core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, grew +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
“[Tuesday’s] data paints a picture of an economy catching its breath,” said Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group. “Job growth is holding on, but cracks are forming. Consumers are still standing, but not sprinting.”
Meanwhile, a key focus for investors is now the U.S. consumer inflation report for November due on Thursday. Notably, the report will have no monthly changes for most price categories, including the headline and core CPI. That’s because the Bureau of Labor Statistics said it was unable to retroactively obtain much of the October price data that were not collected during the government shutdown. Economists expect core and headline inflation to be +3.0% y/y and +3.1% y/y, respectively. “Although this is well above the Fed’s target rate, at this level it would suggest that inflation remains stable, and it would also add to the view that tariffs have not caused a spike in inflation, yet,” according to Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. 
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic wrote in an essay published Tuesday that policymakers should stay focused on addressing inflation, with elevated price pressures likely to persist through most of next year. “After wrestling with all the considerations, today I continue to view price stability as the clearer and more pressing risk despite shifts in the labor market,” Bostic said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 80.1% probability of no rate change and a 19.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the January FOMC meeting.
Today, investors will hear perspectives from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
Market participants will also monitor earnings reports from several notable companies, with chipmaker Micron Technology (MU), cereal maker General Mills (GIS), and electronics manufacturing services provider Jabil Circuit (JBL) slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be -2.4 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of -1.8 million barrels.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.170%, up +0.51%.

The market seems to be fighting two opposing issues. On the one hand, earnings are solid! ​$SPX is expected to report Y/Y earnings growth of 12.1% for CY 2025, which would be the 2nd straight year of double-digit growth

No big news catalysts today beyond some FED speak. We'll get CPI tomorrow. That could get some action going. I thought that about NFP yesterday, though, as well.
Let's take a look at the intraday levels for our 0DTEs today. I'll likely continue to focus my efforts today on the existing SPY setup. 

​6833* (200PMA), 6841* (50PMA), 6852, 6863 are resistance levels. 6806, 6790, 6778, 6761 are support levels.

Our training today dives into the biases we have as traders. Once we can identify them, we can work on them.
Come join us on our live zoom.
​See you all shortly in the live trading room!

Yesterday was a pretty big non event. Not much movement and not much volume. We've got NFP incoming this morning and that may generate some price action. We should have just sat on our hands yesterday. There wasn't a lot of setups that made sense. We kept risk low but couldn't get any green on the day. Here's a look at the day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. A bearish trend seems to want to take hold. We've got a bit of a trend reversal happening here. 

Technicals are slightly bearish this morning. 

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.06%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.14% this morning as investors exercise caution ahead of the release of the key U.S. jobs report, which will offer clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path next year.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the red. ServiceNow (NOW) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Bloomberg reported that the company was in advanced talks to buy cybersecurity startup Armis for as much as $7 billion, and KeyBanc downgraded the stock to Underweight. Also, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped as the price of Bitcoin fell more than -4%, with Riot Platforms (RIOT) tumbling over -10%, and Strategy (MSTR) sliding more than -8% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100. In addition, iRobot (IRBT) plummeted over -72% after the Roomba maker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. On the bullish side, KLA Corp. (KLAC) rose more than +2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a price target of $1,500.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the Empire State manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -3.9 in December, weaker than expectations of 10.0.
Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Monday that the central bank’s policy stance remains overly restrictive for the economy, citing his benign inflation outlook and warning signs in the job market. Also, New York Fed President John Williams said monetary policy is well-positioned for next year following last week’s rate cut. “The FOMC has moved the modestly restrictive stance of monetary policy toward neutral,” Williams said. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she backed last week’s rate cut, though the decision was a “close call” given her ongoing concerns about elevated inflation. “While my analysis in November had leaned toward holding policy steady, by the December meeting, available information suggested the balance of risks had shifted a bit,” Collins said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 73.4% chance of no rate change and a 26.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report for November, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report arrives later than the typical first Friday of the month due to the lingering impact of the historically long government shutdown. Notably, the report will be unusual as it will include an estimate of October payrolls — figures that were delayed by the shutdown. Economists, on average, forecast that Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 51K in November. At the same time, October payroll data is expected to show substantial losses in government jobs stemming from buyouts of federal workers.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that investor expectations for the market’s reaction to the key jobs report are fairly evenly split, with 29% calling for “risk-on,” 36% “risk-off,” and 36% “mixed/negligible.”
With the Fed still appearing more focused on labor market weakness than inflation, the jobs report may bring a “bad news is good” reaction, according to Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “As long as the numbers don’t suggest employment is falling off a cliff, the markets may embrace soft data because it could lead to a more-dovish Fed,” Larkin said.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data. Economists expect the November figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y, compared to +0.2% m/m and +3.8% y/y in September.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today. Economists anticipate that the November figure will creep up a tick to 4.5% from 4.4% in September.
U.S. Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales data for October will be closely monitored today. The report was originally scheduled for release on November 14th, but was delayed due to the fallout from the shutdown. Economists expect retail sales to rise +0.1% m/m and core retail sales to rise +0.2% m/m in October, compared to the September numbers of +0.2% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.
Preliminary U.S. purchasing managers’ surveys will be released today as well. Economists expect the December S&P Global Manufacturing PMI to be 52.0 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 54.0, compared to the previous values of 52.2 and 54.1, respectively.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.179%, down -0.05%.

Let's take a look at some of the key levels for 0DTE today based on the /ES futures. 
A very key area from yesterday is the 6827 level. Buyers could not get the market above this level all day. If they fail again today, that cements more bearish price action.  6827, 6835, 6847, 6852 are resistance zones. 6812, 6803, 6798, 6779 are support.  NFP will be the driver today.

Awaiting NFP. Let's hope we get some price action we can work off today. See you all in the live trading room shortly!

Techs got hit pretty hard on Friday pushing the indices down. They look to rebound this morning. As techs go, so goes the overall market. I had a losing day Friday with my day trades. I was just on the wrong side of the price action all day. That was offset by our ATM portfolio that hit another ATH. We've got two weeks left in the year. I'm not sure if we'll get to my personal goal of 30%+ ROI on the year but I think we'll be close. 

Let's take a look at the markets:
After Fridays tech selloff and this mornings futures rebound, we sit at a neutral rating to start today.

We are back to a bit of a neutral zone now. It will be interesting to see if the bulls or bears can get us to a clear trend today.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.48%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.49% this morning, signaling a partial rebound from Friday’s tech-led selloff on Wall Street as investors stepped in to buy the dip at the start of the final full trading week of 2025.
Lower bond yields today are supporting stock index futures.
This week, investors will focus on key U.S. economic data, including monthly employment and inflation figures, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages closed sharply lower. Broadcom (AVGO) plunged over -11% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the software and semiconductor giant’s sales outlook for the AI market fell short of investors’ lofty expectations. Also, Sandisk (SNDK) tumbled more than -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after GF Securities downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. In addition, Ciena Corp. (CIEN) slumped over -9% after Northland Securities downgraded the stock to Market Perform from Outperform with a $190 price target. On the bullish side, Lululemon Athletica (LULU) surged more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the retailer posted upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Friday that she would prefer interest rates to be somewhat more restrictive to continue putting pressure on inflation, which remains too high. “Right now, we’ve got policy that’s right around neutral,” Hammack said. Also, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said he dissented against the latest FOMC’s decision to cut interest rates because inflation remains “too high” and policy should stay modestly restrictive to contain it. At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he is penciling in more rate cuts for 2026 than many of his colleagues, but dissented against a rate cut at the December meeting because he wanted to wait for additional inflation data. In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said, “On net, I am still a little more concerned about labor market weakness than about upside risks to inflation.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 75.6% probability of no rate change and a 24.4% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in January.
This week, a slew of delayed U.S. economic data will give investors and policymakers a long-awaited snapshot of the labor market and broader economy. The jobs report and consumer price index for November will be the main highlights, starting to shape the outlook for interest rates in 2026. U.S. retail sales data for October will also draw attention, along with preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys on manufacturing and services sector activity. Other noteworthy data releases include the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Business Inventories, Existing Home Sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
Market participants will also parse comments from several Fed officials, with the key question now being how far and how fast interest rates will fall in 2026. The Fed has projected just one rate cut next year, but many in the market anticipate more, with U.S. money markets fully pricing in two reductions. Fed Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, along with New York Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, are scheduled to speak this week.
In addition, several notable companies, including chipmaker Micron Technology (MU), advisory firm Accenture (ACN), sneaker maker Nike (NKE), and shipping giant FedEx (FDX), are set to report their quarterly figures this week.
Today, investors will focus on the New York Fed-compiled Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the December figure to come in at 9.8, compared to 18.7 in November.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.170%, down -0.60%.

​SPY ended the week modestly lower, closing at $681.76 (-0.57%). The Turtle Trading Strategy triggered a long entry last week after the ETF printed a new 20-day high. Price has since pulled back and is now sitting just above its 10-day low, which marks the strategy’s exit level. According to the Strategy Variance Explorer, this trade is considerably underperforming its historical average, leaving bulls with little room for error heading into the new week.

​IWM Russell 2000
IWM led the major indexes last week, closing at $253.85 (+1.23%). Small-caps likely benefited from avoiding much of the earnings-driven volatility while also responding favorably to the Fed’s recent rate cut. The Turtle Trading Strategy triggered a long entry the prior week, and since then, two additional pyramiding entries have been added as price continued to push higher. With multiple entries now in play, the focus shifts to whether the trend can sustain its momentum or begins to show signs of exhaustion.

​The SPX continues to grind higher, and the breadth backdrop is showing steady improvement. The number of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average has recovered meaningfully, placing the SMA-200 breadth measure back in the green zone an area associated with stronger underlying participation.
The SMA-10 of breadth is also turning upward, signaling that more stocks are re-engaging with the broader trend. In the short term, holding this green-zone strength would point to healthier market underpinnings, while any pullback from here would suggest a more selective advance and a need to watch for momentum cooling.

1.16% expected move for the week.

We've got a good training today starting a new series on 19 Bias or beliefs that influence traders actions: 

1. Dunning-Kruger Effect: Overestimating one’s own trading skills due to a lack of knowledge and experience.
2. Overconfidence Bias: Having excessive confidence in one’s own trading decisions or strategies.
3. Confirmation Bias: Seeking or interpreting market information in a way that confirms pre-existing beliefs.
4. Anchoring Bias: Relying too heavily on the first piece of information seen (like initial price) when making decisions.
5. Availability Heuristic: Overestimating the importance of information that is readily available or memorable. Like seeing social media posts of profitable trades and believing this is the norm.
6. Hindsight Bias: Believing after an event has occurred that one could have predicted the event. “Ah, I should have seen that coming”.
7. Loss Aversion: Being more sensitive to losses than to gains of the same size.
8. Representativeness Heuristic: Judging the probability of an event by how much it resembles other events or trends.
9. Gambler’s Fallacy: Believing that past events can affect the likelihood of something happening in the future, despite no causal relationship.
10. Status Quo Bias: Preferring to keep things as they are, avoiding change.
11. Endowment Effect: Valuing a trade more highly simply because you took it.
12. Optimism Bias: Believing that one is less likely to experience a negative event compared to others.
13. Recency Bias: Overemphasizing the most recent information or experiences.
14. Framing Effect: Making decisions based on how information is presented rather than just on the facts themselves.
15. Self-Serving Bias: Attributing successes to personal skill and failures to external factors.
16. Bandwagon Effect: Adopting beliefs or practices because they are becoming popular or widespread.
17. Illusion of Control: Overestimating one’s ability to control or influence events, such as market movements.
18. Neglect of Probability: Ignoring the actual probability of outcomes, leading to poor risk assessment.
19. Sunk Cost Fallacy: Continuing a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money, effort).

Let's start the week strong today! See you all shortly. 

Ah, cognitive dissonance. We all have it. That situation where your actions don't align with your beliefs. For example, I know drinking soda is bad for me, yet I continue to do it. I know working out every day is beneficial, yet I don't do it. We all have beliefs that we feel are right, yet we don't act on them. How does this relate to investing?
Our ATM portfolio is killing it this year. We are on pace to make around 30% ROI and nearly double the market. Two of our biggest contributors to those massive gains have been TSLA and LULU. What's interesting about them is that they have, at times, been the most hated positions in our portfolio. TSLA was a buying power hog and always needed constant adjustment. LULU had fallen by over 50% and while that just created an amazing buying opportunity, some of our members didn't see it as a great opportunity. We all know (and believe) that it is the right thing to do to "buy when blood runs in the streets" but how many actually do it? LULU should continue to be a cash flow machine for us going forward but it took patience to hold it and gumption to buy it.

By the way. If you want a passive investment model that has almost double the SP500 returns, on avg. over the last 5 years you can check it out for free. 

Our string of daily profits continued yesterday. It was all due to our multi-pronged approach to setting up trades. It was a very TRICKY price action day. Those first few candles in the morning and the whipsaws were something we haven't seen in a very long time. Fortunately scalping scored for us again with an overnight profit hitting for me at 2:00AM while I slept. The 1HTE bitcoin trades continue to offer incredible setups as well, when we can find them. You will be hard pressed to find another trade that can predictably make as much in under an hours time. If you're not trading these your missing out. Get started here:

Also, APEX is having there biggest sale of the year right now. 90% off. You SHOULD be using a prop account to scalp with us. Get $50,000 of someone else's money to scalp futures with us. You get 90% of the profits, they keep 10% and they take all the risk! This just makes sense. Take advantage of the huge discounts here: 

If you want to replicate the profits you see us generating with our scalping program you can come scalp live with us right here: 

Last pitch for you to start making money. If you want to day trade (0DTE) setups. I believe we put up the best risk/reward setups you can find on a daily basis. You can come trade live with us for a free week and check it out. 

Let's get into the markets.
​Buy mode is still holding...just barely.

The QQQ's remain weak but ATH's for everything else. 

December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are trending down -0.58% this morning as Broadcom’s earnings report prompted further concerns about the AI trade.
Broadcom (AVGO) slid over -5% in pre-market trading after the software and semiconductor giant’s sales outlook for the AI market fell short of investors’ lofty expectations. Chief Executive Officer Hock Tan said on a conference call that the company has a $73 billion backlog in AI product orders to be delivered over the next six quarters. However, this figure disappointed some investors. The company also said margins would decline due to a higher mix of AI-related revenue, adding to concerns about returns from AI.
Investor focus now turns to remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended mixed. Visa (V) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after BofA upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $382. Also, shares of cruise line operators advanced, with Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) rising more than +7% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) gaining over +6%. In addition, Planet Labs (PL) jumped over +35% after the company reported upbeat Q3 results and raised its full-year revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Oracle (ORCL) plunged more than -10% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the software and cloud-computing company posted weaker-than-expected FQ2 cloud sales and raised its full-year capital spending outlook.
“This Oracle move is, of course, dragging down the entire ecosystem. However, market breadth is really positive for a second consecutive day,” according to Alexander Altmann, global head of equities tactical strategies at Barclays Plc.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose by +44K to a 3-month high of 236K, compared with the 220K expected. Separately, delayed data showed the U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to -$52.8 billion in September, stronger than expectations of -$62.5 billion.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 73.4% chance of no rate change and a 26.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in January.
Today, market participants will parse comments from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.
“Focus will fall largely on Fedspeak, with scheduled remarks due from 2026 voters Hammack and Paulson, while dissenters Goolsbee, Schmid, and Miran will all likely issue statements explaining why they didn’t vote with the majority on Wednesday,” Pepperstone’s Michael Brown said in a note.
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.169%, up +0.60%.

Let's take a look at our intraday /ES levels for our 0DTE setups. 
6909, 6925, 6940, 6949 are resistance levels. 6895, 6885, 6876, 6869 are support. 

We had an excellent training yesterday. Monday should be another awesome one.
See you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's see if we can keep the profits flowing.

Last week was amazing for us. Every day a winner. Great. Last week had some really good setups. This week? Well, Monday and Tuesday were blah as traders didn't want to take positions prior to FOMC. Yesterday was a big "wait and see" until the end of the day. Two very big traders I follow on Twitter just said, "take this week off" and walked away. This always blows my mind. Yes, this week has not presented the amazing setups we'd like to see but never the less, we've made money every day.  That's the power of options. Regardless of market conditions, Up, down, neutral. High I.V, Low I.V. There are setups that can work. Are they as juicy as we'd like? Not always, but there are always trades to be had. Even if it's a 1HTE setup on Bitcoin. We had some nice setups yesterday for FOMC. Did we get rich? No. But we just keep bring in the green. Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets. 
Technicals are back to bullish after the move yesterday. 

Although we do see a bit of Jekyll and Hyde action in the futures. 

It was really the interest rate sensitive IWM that got the best of yesterdays FOMC news.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.35%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.65% this morning as Oracle rekindled worries about the massive spending tied to artificial intelligence, overshadowing optimism over the Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate cut.
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) plunged over -10% in pre-market trading after the software and cloud-computing company posted weaker-than-expected FQ2 cloud sales and raised its full-year capital expenditures forecast. The company’s results brought renewed attention to concerns over tech valuations and whether heavy spending on AI infrastructure will ultimately pay off. Investors will get another read on the AI trade’s strength when Broadcom releases its earnings after the close.
Notably, stock index futures pared earlier losses of more than 1% as dip buyers stepped in. Lower bond yields today are also helping limit losses in equity futures.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher. GE Vernova (GEV) surged over +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the energy company increased its earnings projections and boosted its dividend and share buyback authorization. Also, Nike (NKE) rose more than +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Guggenheim initiated coverage of the stock with a Buy rating and $77 price target. In addition, Photronics (PLAB) jumped over +45% after the company posted better-than-expected FQ4 results and provided upbeat FQ1 guidance. On the bearish side, shares of mobile grocery delivery firms slipped after Amazon.com announced it had expanded same-day delivery for perishable groceries to more than 2,300 cities and towns, with Uber Technologies (UBER) falling more than -5% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and DoorDash (DASH) dropping over -4%.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the U.S. employment cost index rose +0.8% q/q in the third quarter, weaker than expectations of +0.9% q/q.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates for the third consecutive time yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to lower the target range for the Fed funds rate by a quarter percentage point to 3.50%-3.75%. Fed Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a half-point rate cut, while Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee dissented in favor of keeping rates unchanged. In its post-meeting statement, the committee made a slight adjustment to its language, suggesting greater uncertainty about the timing of its next rate cut. In their updated economic projections, officials’ median forecasts pointed to one quarter-percentage-point cut in 2026 and another in 2027. In addition, policymakers authorized new purchases of short-term Treasury securities to ensure an “ample” level of bank reserves.
At a press conference, Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed had likely done enough to ease the threat to employment while keeping rates sufficiently high to continue easing inflation pressures. “This further normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once the effects of tariffs have passed through,” Powell said.
“The Fed emphasized that future moves will be data-dependent, shifting firmly to a meeting-by-meeting approach,” said Daniel Siluk, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 80.1% chance of no rate change and a 19.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 220K, compared to last week’s number of 191K.
U.S. Trade Balance data for September will also be released today. The data was originally scheduled for release on November 4th, but was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists anticipate that the trade deficit will widen to -$62.5 billion from -$59.6 billion in August.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists forecast that the final September figure will come in at +0.1% m/m.
In addition, market participants will monitor earnings reports from several notable companies, with Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST), Ciena Corp. (CIEN), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU) scheduled to report their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.143%, down -0.67%.

We just finished our 12-part series yesterday, and it was a very insightful study. Today, we'll be looking at one of the most infamous books Wall Street has ever seen.  There's some amazing stuff here. If you want to see how we find positions we want to be assigned on in our ATM portfolio (that consistently beats the SP500) you won't want to miss it. Come join us in our live Zoom.

We've got a sweet setup already working from yesterday for our SPX 0DTE. We'll build our day out around this position. 

See you all shortly. Today should be a "banger" as the kids like to say!

Today is FOMC day. The expected rate cut is not the news. What Powell says about next year and how a deeply divided Fed will work itself out is the real story. Also, the great Warren Buffett is set to retire. Considered one of the best investors to have ever lived. His long-term track record is 19.8% average annual return. A return, by the way, that doubles (trounces) the stock market.  Remember that 24% a year doubles your money every three years. You don't need better than that. If you can do that, you are in an elite group and your money will compound just fine. I'm super proud of our ATM portfolio. Entering its sixth year with an average yearly return of 26%. Trouncing the market isn't an easy task.

We had a good day yesterday. It was another tough day and my only mistake was trying to scalp on a day that had no real scalping opportunities. Still, we found some places to may money and finished green on the day. 
​Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
Technicals are breaking down as we await the FOMC. 

Neither the bulls nor the bears want to take a substantive position this week ahead of FOMC.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are down -0.05%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are down -0.11% this morning as investors refrain from making big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year, with all eyes on the central bank’s outlook for interest rates in 2026.
Higher bond yields today are weighing on stock index futures. The 10-year T-note yield rose two basis points to 4.20%, extending its advance as investors grew more cautious about the pace of rate cuts next year.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. AutoZone (AZO) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted weaker-than-expected FQ1 results. Also, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after its consumer banking chief, Marianne Lake, said firmwide expenses in 2026 would total roughly $105 billion. In addition, Toll Brothers (TOL) fell over -2% after the homebuilder reported weaker-than-expected FQ4 earnings and gave cautious 2026 deliveries guidance. On the bullish side, Ares Management (ARES) climbed more than +7% after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the asset manager would be added to the S&P 500 index on December 11th.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings rose to a 5-month high of 7.670 million in October, stronger than expectations of 7.140 million. Separately, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.3% m/m in September, in line with expectations.
“It’s hard to read too much into the JOLTs report – the outperformance in job openings is ostensibly hawkish…, but the pace of layoffs rose too,” according to Vital Knowledge’s Adam Crisafulli.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to deliver a 25 basis point rate cut for a third straight meeting. That would take the Fed funds rate to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Market watchers will follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for clues on next year’s interest rate path. Market participants will also scrutinize the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer guidance on how policymakers expect the interest rate path to unfold over the next few years.
The implied move in the U.S. stock market following the Fed’s decision is just under 1% in either direction, according to data from Strategas Group. A swing of that magnitude would mark the largest post-Fed-Meeting move in the S&P 500 index since March.
“It’s not too much of an exaggeration to say that the rate cut is actually the least important part of this meeting,” said Tom Essaye, founder of The Sevens Report. The market “cares much more that the Fed signals it will continue to cut rates and does not signal a pause in the rate-cut cycle.”
Meanwhile, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, the frontrunner in President Trump’s search to replace Mr. Powell, said on Tuesday he believes there is ample room to significantly lower rates, potentially by more than a quarter-point cut. “If the data suggests that we could do it, then — like right now — I think there’s plenty of room to do it,” Hassett said.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. Employment Cost Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The ECI was originally scheduled for release on October 31st, but was delayed due to the government shutdown. Economists expect this figure to come in at +0.9% q/q in the third quarter, the same as in the second quarter.
The EIA’s weekly crude oil inventories report will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be -1.2 million barrels, compared to last week’s value of 0.6 million barrels.
On the earnings front, prominent companies such as Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), and Synopsys (SNPS) are set to report their quarterly figures today. Oracle’s results will attract particular attention amid concerns over lofty tech valuations and whether massive AI investments will ultimately deliver returns.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.210%, up +0.45%.

​The SPX momentum setup is stabilizing again, with the momentum score climbing back to its upper range (near 5) after several weeks of choppy readings. Price action has also firmed, with the index holding above recent swing lows and grinding toward the upper end of its short-term range.
In the very near term, the key thing to watch is whether SPX can maintain this renewed momentum strength, as past rebounds to a score of 5 have often coincided with brief follow-through attempts.
If momentum slips back toward the mid-range again, it would signal that buyers are losing control of the current bounce and that the index may be stuck in a sideways consolidation.

​QQQ’s 1-month skew continues to show a clear put-side bias, with the risk-reversal sitting in the upper-third of its 3-month range (≈74th percentile). This suggests that traders are still paying a relative premium for downside protection even as spot prices have recovered from the late-November dip.
The white 25-delta risk-reversal line has been grinding higher, indicating persistent demand for puts over calls. In the short term, this kind of elevated skew often reflects a market that’s stabilizing but still carrying hedging pressure, useful to keep in mind if volatility picks up again or if QQQ retests recent support levels.

I'm a big believer in humility as a wonderful human trait and that "pride cometh before the fall". This is accurate in life but especially important in trading. The minute you think you've got it figured out and are "hot stuff" the market has a way of smacking you upside the head! Our trades are no different and any other traders. Some win and some lose but...one thing I do brag about and am very proud of, is our levels. Win, lose or draw on the day, our levels are usually pretty spot on. It's what we base all our trading off of. It's our "secret sauce" here. Yesterday however was on another level!  I told our traders before the open it could be a "yucky" day. No body wants to really commits, either way, before FOMC. (Frankly today could be the same). We were down most of the day but kept working it. Stayed patient and darned if we didn't hit both our resistance area and target area within 1 point!
Here's a look at our day. 

Let's take a look at the markets.
​Sitting so close to ATH's, nobody wants to commit before FOMC tomorrow.

We start the day with a technical neutral rating. That seems very appropriate but also gives no guidance.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are trending up +0.07% this morning as investors gear up for the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting, while also awaiting the delayed reading on U.S. job openings.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed lower. Marvell Technology (MRVL) slumped about -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Benchmark downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and withdrew its price target. Also, Tesla (TSLA) slid more than -3% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight. In addition, CoreWeave (CRWV) fell over -2% after the cloud computing firm announced plans to offer $2 billion worth of convertible senior notes due 2031 in a private placement. On the bullish side, Paramount Skydance (PSKY) climbed more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company launched a hostile takeover bid for Warner Bros. Discovery at $30 per share in cash.
The Fed kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. The central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% on Wednesday. Investors will closely follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for clues on next year’s interest rate path. Market watchers will also scrutinize the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, which will offer guidance on how policymakers expect the interest-rate path to unfold over the next few years.
“The tone of Chair Powell’s press conference and accompanying statement will be critical,” wrote Deutsche Bank AG strategist Jim Reid. “We expect Powell to emphasize that the hurdle for further cuts in early 2026 is high, signaling a near-term pause. This guidance will be key to maintaining credibility.”
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures for October, set to be released in a couple of hours. Notably, the October JOLTs report will include figures for September. The report will provide investors with additional insight into the health of the U.S. labor market. Economists, on average, forecast that the JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 7.2 million.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will also be released today. Economists expect the September figure to drop -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.5% m/m.
Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Monday it will skip publication of its delayed October PPI report and instead roll those figures into a rescheduled November report set for publication on January 14th.
On the earnings front, notable companies like AutoZone (AZO), Ferguson (FERG), AeroVironment (AVAV), and GameStop Corp. (GME) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In tariff news, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 5% levy on imports from Mexico, accusing the country of violating a 1944 treaty that obligates it to deliver millions of gallons of water to the U.S.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.162%, down -0.26%.

​The S&P 500 is trading at nearly 24x forward P/E ratio, the 2nd-highest among major global stock markets.

​The SPX option score has stabilized near the upper end of its range, hovering around 4–5, which signals improving short-term sentiment compared with the mid-November softness.
Price action has also firmed, with the index carving out a series of higher lows and pushing back toward the recent 6,900 level. In the very near term, this combination, stronger option score plus recovering spot price, suggests traders are leaning more constructively, especially if the index can hold above the mid-6,800 zone that has acted as a pivot.
However, the score has flipped quickly before, so watching whether it sustains another high reading over the next few sessions will be key to gauging whether momentum builds or stalls.

Let's take a look at the intraday /ES levels once again. Today may be another "malaise" like yesterday. I don't expect much movement before FOMC. That doesn't mean we can't profit (see yesterday), but we'll likely need to work for it. 6863, 6870* (20.50PMA on 2hr. chart convergence), 6875, 6883, 6894 are resistance levels. 6856, 6850, 6844, 6836, 6830 are support levels. 

We had an excellent training yesterday, and tomorrow will be our last in our 12-part series on must-read books. We'll end with on one of the best books ever for traders. Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van K. Tharp. It's an absolute must for serious traders. Please join us tomorrow in our live Zoom feed.  

See you all shortly in the live trading room! Let's make some more money today.
​

Welcome back to a new week of trading. I hope your weekend went well. We had a church Christmas party on Sat. and an extended family party (62 relatives!) on Sun. so I'm a bit Christmas'ed out! 
This week we get FOMC on Weds. and another rate cut looks likely. The focus should be on the FEDS ' looking comments about 2026. How many rate cuts will we get?

We had an excellent run of profit last week. Our ATM portfolio continues to power into the close of 2025 and should, once again, beat the SP500 for return. In spite of the fact that price action was muted most of last week, our day trades all worked as well. Here's a look at our Friday results. Our end-of-day .40-cent trade turned in a 350% gain, which helped.

Let's take a look at the markets: Technicals are still hanging onto the buy mode signal.

Markets seem to be waiting around for FOMC to drop. The question is, has the rate cut already been priced in?

​SPY was the weakest of the major indexes last week, finishing nearly unchanged at $685.69 (+0.33%). However, the Chande Absolute Trend Strength (CHATS) Indicator turned candles green for the first time in weeks, reflecting a shift toward strengthening momentum and renewed trend persistence. With SPY pressing toward all-time highs, a fresh CHATS flip often signals the early stages of a re-acceleration phase rather than exhaustion.

​The latest SPX breadth readings show short-term participation beginning to firm up, with the number of stocks reclaiming their 5-, 20-, and 50-day SMAs ticking higher after a period of compression.
While none of the breadth measures are signaling an extreme, the upward curl across all three windows suggests improving internal momentum rather than a narrow, index-driven move.
In the short term, continued follow-through in the 5-day SMA breadth is a key sign to watch, sustained expansion there often precedes broader strength in the 20- and 50-day cohorts.
Conversely, if these small upticks stall or roll over, it may indicate the rally is losing participation under the surface even if headline price holds steady.

Let's look at the weekly expected move in the SPX. Sitting at a 1.16% expectation. That's low for an FOMC week.

​December S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESZ25) are up +0.12%, and December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ25) are up +0.23% this morning, pointing to a higher open on Wall Street as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s final monetary policy committee meeting of the year, where another rate cut is widely expected.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the green. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) surged over +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the retailer reported stronger-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year guidance. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Micron Technology (MU) rising more than +4% and GlobalFoundries (GFS) advancing over +3%. In addition, Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) climbed more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after Netflix agreed to acquire the company for about $72 billion. On the bearish side, DocuSign (DOCU) slumped over -7% after the software company issued soft Q4 revenue guidance.
Data from the U.S. Department of Commerce released on Friday showed that the core PCE price index, a key inflation gauge monitored by the Fed, rose +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y in September, compared to expectations of +0.2% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Also, U.S. September personal spending rose +0.3% m/m, in line with expectations, and personal income grew +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. In addition, the University of Michigan’s preliminary U.S. consumer sentiment index rose to 53.3 in December, stronger than expectations of 52.0. Finally, U.S. consumer credit rose by $9.18 billion in October, weaker than expectations of $11.8 billion.
“Overall, the [PCE Inflation] data was consistent with another 25 basis point Fed cut [in December], but it doesn’t suggest any urgency for the Fed to accelerate the pace of cuts in 2026,” said BMO’s Ian Lyngen.
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference will take center stage this week. The central bank is widely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50% to 3.75%, especially after last week’s ADP payroll report pointed to falling private-sector jobs. “Momentum is now firmly behind a third 25 basis-point easing for the year. While there is some nervousness about the potential for inflation to remain elevated due to tariff-induced price hikes, the news on the jobs market is increasingly concerning,” according to ING economist James Knightley. With next year’s rate path uncertain, Mr. Powell’s remarks will be closely monitored. Market watchers will also scrutinize the Fed’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections, as they look to gauge how quickly and how far interest rates will fall next year.
Investors will also keep an eye on U.S. economic data this week. The U.S. JOLTs Job Openings for October and weekly jobless claims will provide investors with additional insight into the health of the labor market. Notably, the October JOLTs report will include figures for September. Other noteworthy data releases include the Employment Cost Index, Unit Labor Costs (preliminary), Nonfarm Productivity (preliminary), and Trade Balance.
In addition, several prominent companies, including Broadcom (AVGO), Oracle (ORCL), Adobe (ADBE), Costco (COST), and AutoZone (AZO), are slated to release their quarterly results this week.
On Friday, the Fed’s blackout period ends, with central bank officials Paulson, Hammack, and Goolsbee set to deliver remarks.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Monday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.151%, up +0.27%.

Let's see if we can repeat last weeks string of success's. I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!