Welcome to Thursday traders! Sorry the blog software was giving me fits yesterday. Here's our results from Tues. 

Our results from yesterday were solid as well. Impressive even if you consider the low premium and poor price action for the day but it was also our lowest captial outlay of the year. Just not a lot to get behind. 

Let's take a look at the markets: SPY and QQQ are back to ATH's with the IWM and DIA stuck in a seemingly locked in, tight consolidation zone.

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.15%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.17% this morning as investors assess tariff and geopolitical risks, while also awaiting a raft of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from retail giant Walmart.
Market jitters have been fueled in recent days by U.S. President Donald Trump’s apparent shift away from supporting Ukraine and its European allies, along with his threats to expand tariff plans across multiple sectors. Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he is considering a 25% tariff on lumber, with the import levy potentially coming around April 2nd. Trump also said he would announce tariffs on cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals “over the next month or sooner.”
The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s January 28-29 meeting, released Wednesday, showed that officials are in no hurry to cut interest rates amid stubborn inflation and economic policy uncertainty. “Participants indicated that, provided the economy remained near maximum employment, they would want to see further progress on inflation before making additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate,” according to the FOMC minutes. Policymakers are also monitoring the implementation of Trump’s economic policy plans and their potential impact on the economy. “Participants cited the possible effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policy, the potential for geopolitical developments to disrupt supply chains, or stronger-than-expected household spending,” the minutes said. Still, officials anticipated that “under appropriate monetary policy” inflation would continue to move toward their 2% target.
“Another ‘nothing burger’ from the Fed. After making a big adjustment in December there is no rush to make other changes. It’s uncharted territory but not necessarily bad for stocks,” said David Russell at TradeStation. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended higher. Garmin (GRMN) surged over +12% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported better-than-expected Q4 results and provided solid FY25 guidance. Also, quantum computing stocks soared on Microsoft’s new chip, with D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) jumping more than +8% and Quantum Computing (QUBT) climbing over +7%. In addition, Analog Devices (ADI) rose more than +9% after the chipmaker posted upbeat FQ1 results and issued above-consensus FQ2 guidance. On the bearish side, Celanese (CE) plummeted over -21% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the specialty chemicals company swung to a quarterly loss.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. housing starts fell -9.8% m/m to 1.366M in January, weaker than expectations of 1.390M. At the same time, U.S. building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +0.1% m/m to 1.483M in January, stronger than expectations of 1.460M.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Wednesday that a strong U.S. economy gives policymakers the flexibility to wait before considering further interest rate cuts. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said, “I’ve been really comfortable with the idea that we would take a pause and wait and see how the economy’s evolving and then use that information to guide what our policy should look like over the next several months.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% probability of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.
Today, retail giant Walmart (WMT) and notable companies like Booking (BKNG), Copart (CPRT), Block (XYZ), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN) are slated to release their quarterly results.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 19.4, compared to last month’s value of 44.3.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 215K, compared to last week’s number of 213K.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be reported today. Economists forecast the January figure at -0.1% m/m, the same as the previous reading.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 3.200M, compared to last week’s value of 4.070M.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Fed officials Goolsbee, Jefferson, Musalem, Barr, and Kugler.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.524%, down -0.24%.

​Top 10 US stocks' market cap and earnings GAP is INSANE: The largest 10 firms as a share of the S&P 500 hit 38%, near an all-time high. Their earnings account for 28% of the S&P 500 profits and have not kept up with the market cap expansion. The gap will eventually close.

​US private sector hiring is in a RECESSION: US hiring in the private sector has declined for 29 months STRAIGHT, the longest streak since the Great Financial Crisis. Hiring rate dropped to 3.6% in December, the second-lowest in 10 YEARS, nearly in line with the 2020 low.

​Americans are MISSING debt payments as if there is a RECESSION: US consumer serious delinquency rates (90+ days) in credit card debt have jumped to 11.4%, the highest in 13 YEARS. They have risen at the pace recently seen in the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009. Serious delinquencies have also exceeded the 2001 recession levels. US consumers are struggling.

My bias or lean today is neutral to bearish. I'm not seeing the catalyst that can push the SPY/QQQ's to new ATH's and the IWM/DIA are stuck. We've had a nice run. The tecnicals are still bullish but I think we are due a pause.

See you all in the live trading room shortly!

Good morning traders! Welcome back to a shortened holiday trading week. I hope you all had a great break from trading. My wife and I were able to spend some time with some good friends up in the mountains and it was nice to have a break. We had a solid day Friday using very little capital, comparitively speaking. We'll have a very short zoom session this morning to talk strategy and go over our results YTD. Here's a look at how our Friday went. 

Markets are starting off the week with a slight bullish lean.

The SPY and QQQ's are pressing on the ATH's. The IWM and DIA look a tad weaker. We are initiating some bearish cash flow setups today in our ATM portfolio on both of those.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.32%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.36% this morning as U.S. and Russian representatives met to negotiate an end to the three-year war in Ukraine.
Limiting gains in U.S. stock futures, Treasury yields surged as cash trading resumed following the Presidents’ Day holiday. A rise in bond yields followed hawkish comments from Fed officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated on Tuesday that recent economic data supported maintaining interest rates at current levels until further progress on inflation was observed. Also, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday that while monetary policy “is now in a good place,” she wants to “gain greater confidence that progress in lowering inflation will continue as we consider making further adjustments to the target range.” In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker advocated for keeping rates unchanged amid a strong economy but said he anticipates interest rates will gradually decline in the long run. 
See Next: Meet the Disruptor Shaking Up the $500 Billion Smartphone Industry
The Barchart Brief: Your FREE insider update on the biggest news stories and investing trends, delivered middayInvestors’ focus this week is also on the publication of the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, remarks from other Fed officials, and a fresh batch of U.S. economic data.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended mixed. Airbnb (ABNB) surged over +14% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the vacation home rental company reported upbeat Q4 results. Also, chip stocks gained ground after Treasury yields extended declines, with Micron Technology (MU) rising more than +4% and Nvidia (NVDA) advancing over +2%. In addition, Roku (ROKU) climbed more than +14% after the company posted better-than-expected Q4 results and said it aims to be profitable in FY26. On the bearish side, GoDaddy (GDDY) tumbled over -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS. Also, Applied Materials (AMAT) slid more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaking equipment maker provided a weak FQ2 revenue forecast.
Economic data released on Friday showed that U.S. retail sales slipped -0.9% m/m in January, missing the -0.2% m/m consensus, while core retail sales, which exclude motor vehicles and parts, dropped -0.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m. Also, U.S. industrial production climbed +0.5% m/m in January, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m, while manufacturing production unexpectedly fell -0.1% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.1% m/m. In addition, the U.S. import price index rose +0.3% m/m in January, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m.
“The consumer sentiment report showed people were getting nervous and [Friday’s] weak retail sales number confirmed it. However, the resulting slack is good news for the Fed and tilts the balance a little bit more toward rate cuts,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
In this holiday-shortened week, investors will be closely watching the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the January 28-29 meeting, scheduled for release on Wednesday, for further indications that rate cuts remain unlikely in the foreseeable future amid expectations that inflation may remain elevated for longer. Market participants will pay particular attention to any comments on the potential inflationary impact of President Trump’s proposed policies, including trade tariffs.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% probability of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
Market watchers will also focus on several economic data releases this week, including the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (preliminary), the S&P Global Services PMI (preliminary), Building Permits (preliminary), Housing Starts, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Jobless Claims, Crude Oil Inventories, Existing Home Sales, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
In addition, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will be making appearances this week.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is winding down, but several notable companies are due to report this week, including Walmart (WMT), Arista Networks (ANET), Medtronic (MDT), Analog Devices (ADI), Booking (BKNG), Rivian Automotive (RIVN), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY).
Today, investors will focus on the Empire State Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the February Empire State manufacturing index will come in at -1.90, compared to -12.60 in January. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.506%, up +0.67%.

Let's take a look at volatility and expected moves this shortened week:

Nothing impressive I.V. wise. VIX1D is buried. 

I'll see you all in the special zoom session shortly!

Good morning traders and Happy Valentines (if that's something you celebrate). I'm a lucky man. My wife agrees with me that it's a manufactured holiday and we don't do gifts. Makes it easy if you're a man! I had a losing day yesterday. It's been a while. We've had a nice run but they can't all be winners. Most of our trades did well but the NDX ended up being a loser for me. I was asked by one of our trading members, "in retrospect, would you still do the trade?" My response was, "In retrospect I would NOT do any trade at any time that loses money!" LOL. It seemed pretty obvious to me but thinking deeper it's not that easy. It was a good risk/reward. I was risking about $4,500 for a potential $9,000 profit. It just didn't hit. If you look at our YTD results so far everything has been going well...except the NDX. What are my take aways with regards to that? #1. We just have to, have to, have to be out of these setups before the close. Trying to take the NDX all the way to expiration is like a kamakazi mission
#2. I try to constantly remind myself that every trade is a winning trade...of one of the trade participants. That means if you are in a setup that is constantly losing, it may be a great trade! You're just on the wrong side of it. If wild unexpected moves are hurting us in the NDX I'm going to go with the flow today and put on a long vol NDX trade.  Let the market do what it will! Here's our results below:

Let's take a look at the markets:
​Technicals are slightly bullish.

For the first time in nearly three weeks it looks like the markets are wanting to trend again. We are getting close to pressing on the ATH's on several major indices. 

My bias or lean today is slightly bullish. That seems to be the push that started yesterday. Yes, we are going to be running into resistance soon but the buyers seem stronger than the sellers right now. 

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending down -0.15% this morning, taking a breather at the end of a turbulent week, while investors await a raft of U.S. economic data, with a particular focus on the retail sales report.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 posting a 1-1/2 week high and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching an 8-week high. MGM Resorts International (MGM) surged over +17% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the casino operator reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results. Also, chip stocks advanced after Treasury yields retreated, with Intel (INTC) climbing more than +7% and Micron Technology (MU) rising over +4%. In addition, AppLovin (APP) jumped more than +24% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the mobile software company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, West Pharmaceutical Services (WST) cratered over -38% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after issuing below-consensus FY25 guidance. Also, The Trade Desk (TTD) tumbled more than -32% after the ad tech firm posted weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue and provided disappointing Q1 revenue guidance. 
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. producer price index for final demand rose +0.4% m/m and +3.5% y/y in January, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y. Also, the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose +0.3% m/m and +3.6% y/y in January, compared to expectations of +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -7K to 213K, compared with the 217K expected.
“While PPI was much higher than expected, with even higher revisions, the real data that goes into PCE was weaker. And PCE is the one that Jerome Powell and the Fed look at. So in reality, the numbers are better,” said Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities. 
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% chance of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday ordered his administration to explore the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on multiple trading partners. Trump signed a measure directing the U.S. Trade Representative and Commerce Secretary to propose new tariffs on a country-by-country basis to rebalance trade relations, a comprehensive process that could span weeks or months to complete. Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, stated that all studies should be finalized by April 1st, allowing Trump to take action immediately thereafter.
“The fact this is a slow burn approach from Trump, with the chance many of the tariffs will be extinguished, is supporting market sentiment,” said Kyle Rodda, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Today, all eyes are focused on U.S. Retail Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that January Retail Sales will stand at -0.2% m/m, compared to the December figure of +0.4% m/m.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Core Retail Sales data, which came in at +0.4% m/m in December. Economists expect the January figure to be +0.3% m/m.
U.S. Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data will be reported today. Economists forecast January Industrial Production at +0.3% m/m and Manufacturing Production at +0.1% m/m, compared to December’s figures of +0.9% m/m and +0.6% m/m, respectively.
U.S. Export and Import Price Indexes will be released today as well. Economists anticipate the export price index to be +0.3% m/m and the import price index to be +0.4% m/m in January, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +0.1% m/m, respectively. 
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.528%, up +0.07%.

As I mentioned, markets are finally back to pressing on ATH's. Can the bulls breakthrough and establish a new uptrend?

​As inflation runs hot, more Americans are relying on debt to get through life. Total consumer debt surged by a record $40.8 billion in December, contributing to a $950 billion increase over the past five years. This brought total consumer debt to over $5 trillion. Financial pressure on households continues to escalate (and meanwhile, job openings are falling… and rents are falling …)... when will they finally reach their limit?

​$META has now traded green for 19 consecutive days, the longest winning streak in history for any Magnificent 7 stock and one of the greatest runs in history!

​Is the S&P 500 bull market near an end? ~61% of S&P 500 stocks trade above their 200-day moving average, down from 86% at the peak. According to Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, this trend shows a negative divergence, feeling like "late innings" to him.

​The Goldman Sachs Bull/Bear Market Indicator measuring market and economic sentiment hit 73%, one of the largest readings in history. The index uses valuations, yield curve, unemployment, inflation and other metrics. The sentiment has rarely been greater.

Let's take a look at our intra-day level on /NQ as that will be our focus for 0DTE today.
 On a daily chart we are back to ATH!​

On the 2hr. chart however, we start to see some divergence. Resistance is close and obviously correlates with the ATH. It would be a big feat for the bulls if they could break above 22,161 and hold. There are multiple support levels on the way down. 22,066, 22,008, 21,912, 21,840, 21,782. There's a lot more support levels than resistance. It should be easier for the bears to push down through these levels than for the bulls to push up above the ATH.

I'll see you all in the trading room shortly! Let's get a nice finish today to end the week. 

Welcome back traders. CPI was good for us. It offered up great scalping opportunities. We had to work our NDX most of the day. It caused me to miss some good earnings setups but that's o.k. I'm proud of our risk management again with our NDX. One of the most powerful quotes in trading is: "All large losses start as small losses". Be willing to take lots of small losses in order to avoid that big one. CPI offered us an amazing opportunity in the 1HTE bitcoin trade. It contributed a bunch to our excellent overall results. Here's a look at our results.

PPI incoming today so no bias or levels.
March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.02%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.06% this morning as market participants awaited crucial producer inflation data and a new round of corporate earnings reports. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended mixed. Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies (WAB) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q4 results and provided soft FY25 guidance. Also, Biogen (BIIB) fell more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the drug developer issued weaker-than-expected FY25 adjusted EPS guidance. In addition, Lyft (LYFT) slid over -7% after the ride-hailing company gave disappointing guidance for Q1 gross bookings. On the bullish side, CVS Health (CVS) surged nearly +15% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the healthcare conglomerate reported better-than-expected Q4 results.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report released on Wednesday showed that consumer prices jumped +0.5% m/m in January, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. On an annual basis, headline inflation unexpectedly accelerated to +3.0% in January from +2.9% in December, stronger than expectations of no change at +2.9% and the fastest pace of increase in 7 months. Also, the January core CPI, which excludes volatile food and fuel prices, unexpectedly accelerated to +3.3% y/y from +3.2% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +3.1% y/y. 
“Higher-for-longer may have just gotten a little longer,” said Ellen Zentner at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. “The Fed has been waiting for clear signs that inflation is trending lower again, and [yesterday] they got the opposite. Until that changes, the markets are going to have to remain patient about additional rate cuts.”
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the latest CPI report indicates that although the central bank has made substantial progress toward taming inflation, there is still more work to do. “I would say we’re close, but not there on inflation. Last year, inflation was 2.6% - so great progress - but we’re not quite there yet,” Powell told House lawmakers in response to a question on the second day of his semi-annual testimony to Congress. The Fed chief added that policymakers “want to keep policy restrictive for now,” suggesting that interest rates will stay elevated for the foreseeable future. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said that the timing of the next interest rate cut remains uncertain due to the unclear trajectory of inflation and potential policy changes, including tariffs, from the Trump administration. “It’s going to take a while to just figure out what is going on,” Bostic noted.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% chance of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Applied Materials (AMAT), Deere & Company (DE), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), Duke Energy (DUK), Airbnb (ABNB), and Datadog (DDOG) are set to report their quarterly figures today.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Producer Price Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. January PPI will come in at +0.3% m/m and +3.2% y/y, compared to the previous figures of +0.2% m/m and +3.3% y/y.
The U.S. Core PPI will also be closely monitored today. Economists expect January figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.3% y/y, compared to December’s numbers of 0.0% m/m and +3.5% y/y.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will come in at 217K, compared to 219K last week.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.601%, down -0.71%.

See you in our live zoom shortly!

Welcome to CPI day! We've got PPI coming up tomorrow. Will these two days of data be enough to get us trending out of this chop zone? I'd love to see a down move to get some premium back in our trades. We had another solid day yesterday. Risk management was on point. It almost always costs us some potential when we are super risk focused. Pulling legs early or repositioning almost always costs money which comes out of the max potential profit but I made the statement Sunday night in our trading room that I wanted to pull $1,000 a day out of my account this week and still keep the value growing so we have no room for error and so far so good. Take a look at our results below. Also, our YTD numbers are looking pretty good.

I only update our ATM program once a month but that asset allocation model is up over 11% so far YTD. I continue to think we'll have a really good shot at a good result this year vs. the SP500, which I think is going to have some headwinds. 
​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending down -0.12% this morning as investors braced for the release of key U.S. inflation data while also awaiting further testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed. DuPont de Nemours (DD) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the industrial materials maker reported better-than-expected Q4 results. Also, Coca-Cola (KO) advanced more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the beverage maker posted upbeat Q4 results. In addition, Intel (INTC) rose over +6% after U.S. Vice President JD Vance said the Trump administration would ensure that advanced artificial intelligence chips are manufactured in the country. On the bearish side, Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) plunged more than -11% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the payment technology company issued below-consensus Q1 guidance. 
Don't Miss: Own a piece of the world’s most iconic characters—invest now before this opportunity disappears!
The Barchart Brief: Your FREE insider update on the biggest news stories and investing trends, delivered middayIn prepared remarks for a Senate hearing Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut rates. “With our policy stance now significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” he said. Also, Powell described the labor market as “not a source of significant inflationary pressures.” In addition, the Fed chief noted that speculating on tariff policy at this time would be unwise.
“He’ll want to see the February jobs and inflation data, and align with other policymakers before saying much,” said David Russell at TradeStation.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Tuesday that keeping interest rates steady for “some time” is appropriate as policymakers wait for further progress on inflation and assess the economic impact of new government policies. Also, New York Fed President John Williams said that “the modestly restrictive stance of policy should support the return to 2% inflation while sustaining solid economic growth and labor market conditions,” but cautioned that policy-related uncertainty casts a shadow over the economic outlook.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 95.5% probability of no rate change and a 4.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the March FOMC meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. consumer inflation report, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. The report may indicate when U.S. interest rates are next likely to be cut, if at all. Economists, on average, forecast that the U.S. January CPI will come in at +0.3% m/m and +2.9% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.4% m/m and +2.9% y/y. Also, the U.S. core CPI is expected to be +0.3% m/m and +3.1% y/y in January, compared to December’s figures of +0.2% m/m and +3.2% y/y.
A survey conducted by 22V Research revealed that 41% of respondents anticipate a “risk-off” market reaction to the CPI report, 31% predict “risk-on,” and 28% expect it to be “mixed/negligible.”
Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee, due later in the day. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Fed Governor Christopher Waller are scheduled to speak today as well. 
On the earnings front, notable companies like Cisco (CSCO), AppLovin (APP), CVS Health Corp. (CVS), The Trade Desk (TTD), Robinhood Markets (HOOD), and Reddit (RDDT) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.549%, up +0.26%.

With CPI today and PPI tomorrow I don't express a lean or bias and I don't look at levels until the day is a few hours in. These are days that the Algos will determine the moves and its important to be flexible.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly. We'll be working our /ES trade quite a bit today. We've already got the anchor position in place.

Yesterday day was a good day for us. It was a solid reminder that we don't always need to swing for the fences to have a $1,000+ profit day. I was trading with a bit of "tariff ptsd" yesterday. We've had three days where our trades looked amazing...until they didn't, as soon as tariff news dropped. I simply wasn't willing to trade the puts side yesterday and while that cost us some potential premium capture, I stand by it. It was the right thing to do from a risk management standpoint. It was also a great lesson in how important it is to have multiple, diversified strategies. We still had a solid day, even with the low capital outlay and conservative approach. See our results below. 

Let's take a look at the market.
We start today off with a neutral rating. That seems appropriate as we continue to churn in a tight chop zone. 

One thing I feel pretty confident about predicting is that we won't stay stuck at this level forever. We have CPI and PPI coming up in the next couple of days. That may be enough to get us moving agian.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.33%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.44% this morning as investors digested another round of tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump and looked ahead to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony as well as Wednesday’s release of a key U.S. inflation report.
Late Monday, President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, including key suppliers Mexico and Canada, effective March 12th, but stated he would consider an exemption for Australia. Trump earlier said he would introduce reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax U.S. imports this week.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks ended higher. Rockwell Automation (ROK) surged over +12% after the automation products maker reported better-than-expected FQ1 adjusted EPS. Also, aluminum and steel company stocks advanced after Trump announced plans to impose a 25% levy on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S., with Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) soaring more than +17% and Alcoa (AA) rising over +2%. In addition, McDonald’s (MCD) climbed more than +4% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the burger chain posted an unexpected increase in Q4 comparable sales. On the bearish side, ON Semiconductor (ON) slumped over -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the chipmaker posted downbeat Q4 results and issued below-consensus Q1 guidance. 
Today, market participants will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee for insights into the rate outlook. Powell will likely emphasize the resilient economy as a primary reason policymakers are not in a hurry to further reduce borrowing costs. 
Also, investors will likely focus on speeches from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, and New York Fed President John Williams, due later in the day.
Aside from Powell’s testimony, the U.S. consumer inflation report for January, scheduled for release on Wednesday, will be a highlight, as it may indicate when U.S. interest rates are next likely to be cut, if at all. The CPI is expected to remain unchanged from December at +2.9% y/y, while the core CPI is projected to ease to +3.1% y/y from +3.2% y/y in December. 
“Inflation data, Powell’s congressional testimony, and tariffs are poised to drive the market story,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “If the S&P 500 is going to break out of its two-month consolidation, it may need a respite from the types of negative surprises - like DeepSeek, tariffs, and consumer sentiment - that have tripped it up over the past few weeks.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 93.5% probability of no rate change and a 6.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Coca-Cola (KO), Shopify (SHOP), Gilead (GILD), Marriott (MAR), and DoorDash (DASH) are set to report their quarterly figures today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
The U.S. economic data slate is largely empty on Tuesday.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.521%, up +0.58%.

Good morning traders! Welcome back to a new week. I hope everyone had a nice weekend. We spent some time with our neighbors watching the Superbowl. I'm not a stick and ball fan but it was nice to hang out with friends.
We had an exceptional day Friday. It was a nice way to end the week. Take a look at our results below: 

There's honestly not much to be unhappy about with our YTD performance. I've mentioned this before but Scalping cotinues to be a huge help for us as well as the 1HTE's. I'm also really happy with how many Theta fairies we've been able to get on. I'm entering today with a short /MNQ scalp and a Theta fairy that only has the call side working. I'm currently down on both of these but I think with regards to tariffs, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times? Come on!" I just think I'd rather be bearish here and need to roll up and out vs. bullish and need to roll out and down.

Let's take a look at the technicals to start the week.
Bullish bias and futures are up this morning but...I'm positioning for some bearish moves. CPI and PPI are out this week. "policy volatility" is coming into play and we'll take about systemic vs. unsystemic risk and how, regardless of technicals, I'd rather have some bearish exposure right now.​

Overall, I don't seem much to be impressed about in this price action. 

​This week, the SPY closed marginally lower at $600.77 (-0.16%). After three weeks of tight price action paired with a squeeze, next week’s CPI and PPI data could be the catalyst for the next major move. This index will have to gain the top of the ascending triangle to push higher, while the rising trendline from the August 5th lows could act as a critical support level if sellers take control.

​QQQ posted a modest gain this week, closing at $522.92 (+0.12%), as it continues to inch higher within a well-defined ascending triangle. Monday’s bounce off the lower trendline reaffirmed key support, keeping bullish momentum intact. Now in the third week of its squeeze, QQQ is nearing the triangle’s apex, potentially setting up for a decisive move on next week’s CPI announcement.

​IWM lagged behind its index peers this week, closing lower at $226.00 (-0.21%) and testing the lower boundary of its ascending channel, a key level since October 2023. Now, in a prolonged squeeze that has turned negative for the first time since last summer, the stage is set for a decisive move. Will this extended squeeze lead to a breakdown, or will buyers dig in here at support?

Let's take a look at the expected moves for the week..
​I.V. for the week isn't horrible and it's not amazing. We should be o.k. to get both debit and credit setups working this week.

The VIX1D at 16 is agian, middle of the road levels. Not great...not horrible. 

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!

Welcome to Friday. The gateway to the weekend! We had an absolutely perfect day yesterday. Check it out below.

See you all in the live trading room shortly. Let's see if we can put another $1,000+ dollars in our pockets today to end an awesome week on the right foot.

Welcome back traders! We are finally to expiration day of our 15DTE "mistake" NDX trade. For a quick recap, I errantly placed a 0DTE as a 15DTE (I have a habit of doing that!) We've traded around it for the last two weeks and the mistake actually looks pretty profitable. Building more of these (on purpose) may not be a bad way to go in this current enviroment. Here's my results from yesterday. I took a flyer right before the close on NDX that lost but most of our traders skipped it. Otherwise is was a solid day. I'm loving our setups in scalping. I'm really interested to see how we finish out this year with scalping and our ATM program. I think both of these hold a lot of promise. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.05%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.08% this morning as investors awaited a new round of U.S. economic data, remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and an earnings report from “Magnificent Seven” member Amazon.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended in the green. Johnson Controls (JCI) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company posted upbeat FQ1 results and raised its FY25 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, chip stocks gained ground after the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell to a 7-week low, with Marvell Technology (MRVL) climbing more than +6% and Nvidia (NVDA) rising over +5%. In addition, Amgen (AMGN) advanced more than +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after reporting better-than-expected Q4 results. On the bearish side, Alphabet (GOOGL) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the Google parent reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue as growth in its cloud business slowed. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) fell more than -6% after the chipmaker posted weaker-than-expected Q4 data center revenue, and its full-year forecast for the data center business failed to impress investors. 
The ADP National Employment report released on Wednesday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls rose by 183K in January, up from 176K in December (revised from 122K) and beating the consensus estimate of 148K. Also, the final estimate of the U.S. January S&P Global services PMI was revised higher to 52.9 from the 52.8 preliminary reading. At the same time, the U.S. ISM services index fell to 52.8 in January, weaker than expectations of 54.2. In addition, the U.S. December trade deficit was -$98.40B, wider than expectations of -$96.50B and the largest deficit in nearly three years.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin stated on Wednesday that policymakers require more time to assess the trajectory of the U.S. economy and inflation amid heightened uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s policies, reinforcing expectations for rates to remain unchanged. Also, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he is comfortable keeping interest rates on hold until policymakers gain a clearer understanding of the overall impact of the Trump administration’s policies on tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 85.5% chance of no rate change and a 14.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the Trump administration’s primary focus in lowering borrowing costs is on 10-year Treasury yields rather than the Fed’s benchmark short-term interest rate. He stated in an interview with Fox Business that regarding the Fed, “I will only talk about what they’ve done, not what I think they should do from now on.” Bessent reiterated his belief that increasing energy supply would aid in reducing inflation.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues, with investors looking forward to fresh reports from notable companies today, including Amazon.com (AMZN), Eli Lilly (LLY), Philip Morris (PM), Honeywell (HON), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Fortinet (FTNT), and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 214K, compared to last week’s number of 207K.
U.S. Unit Labor Costs and Nonfarm Productivity preliminary data will also be closely watched today. Economists forecast Q4 Unit Labor Costs to be +3.4% q/q and Nonfarm Productivity to be +1.5% q/q, compared to the third-quarter numbers of +0.8% q/q and +2.2% q/q, respectively.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.435%, up +0.34%.

Yesterdays price action was what I had predicted and it was enough to get us a slightly bullish outlook going into todays session.

I'm not going into this session with any real lean or bias. I'll note the demarcation points below for a bullish or bearish trigger. Things for the most part look bullish. It's only the IWM that still can't get back up above it's 50DMA.

I'll see you all in the trading room shortly!

Welcome back traders! We had a great day yesterday. Not a perfect day. Our SPX debit didn't hit but our NDX did. I want to do a training review today on the nine main orderflow indicators we use and what is showing on our live scalping zoom feed. See below:

Supertrend, Parabolic SAR, Pivot point, Squeeze indicator, Audible order flow with Tickstrike, $TICK, $ADSPD, $VOLSPD are the ones we'll focus on today.

As I mentioned, our results were solid. 

I want to stress, once again, how important it is to have diversified strategies working each day. I can't remember the last time we've had a day where something wasn't losing money and yet, you'll see our YTD results are impressive. You never know what's going to work. Scalping is one example. We did scalp yesterday but no results were posted because the cover is set to expire this Friday but there's $2,500 potential profit sitting there. Our Theta fairys are another example. We hit a $170 profit last night in a couple hours. 

Sometimes the cash is pouring in on scalping and Theta fairys and sometimes we go a whole week without a single entry. You just never know what opportunities the market will offer up each day.
​Let's look at the markets:
Poor earnings results from GOOG and AMD as well as China issues with AAPL are dragging the futures down this morning. It's put us back to a neutral rating to start the day which means it will just be a crap shoot about direction (IMHO).

Heaven knows we've had plenty of volatility and movement this past week but in terms of actual ranges or directional bias there's absolutely nothing happening!  At some point we will move from consolidation to trending. Neutral days can be the trigger days for that to happen. I don't see that taking place today but you never know.

​March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are trending down -0.91% this morning as disappointing results from Alphabet and Advanced Micro Devices weighed on sentiment.
Alphabet (GOOGL) slid over -7% in pre-market trading after the Google parent reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue as growth in its cloud business slowed. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slumped more than -8% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted weaker-than-expected Q4 data center revenue, and its full-year forecast for the data center business failed to impress investors.
Market participants now look ahead to a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from entertainment giant Disney.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) jumped about +24% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the data analytics company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 and FY25 revenue guidance. Also, megacap technology stocks advanced, with Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) rising more than +2%. In addition, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed over +8% after the artificial intelligence server maker announced that it would provide an FQ2 business update on February 11th. On the bearish side, Estee Lauder (EL) plunged more than -16% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the cosmetics and skin care company provided a downbeat FQ3 outlook and announced job cuts. Also, Merck & Co. (MRK) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after halting shipments to China of its Gardasil vaccine and offering a weak FY25 forecast.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 7.600M in December, weaker than expectations of 8.010M. Also, U.S. December factory orders fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m and marking the largest decline in 6 months.
“[The latest reading on U.S. job openings] eases upside risks into Friday’s employment report in a way that is helpful for the Federal Reserve and markets,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday, “As long as the economy and the labor market remain strong, I see it as appropriate for the Committee to be cautious in making further adjustments... I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.5% chance of no rate change and a 16.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, and investors await new reports from notable companies today, including The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Uber Technologies (UBER), and Ford Motor (F). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the January ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 148K, compared to the December figure of 122K.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Services PMI. Economists expect the January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to arrive at 54.2 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 52.9, compared to the previous values of 54.1 and 56.8, respectively.
U.S. Trade Balance data will come in today. Economists foresee this figure standing at -$96.50B in December, compared to -$78.20B in November.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 2.400M, compared to last week’s value of 3.463M.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed officials Barkin, Goolsbee, Bowman, and Jefferson.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.471%, down -0.93%.