Welcome back traders. I know it's April 1st but it's no joke. The market moves are something we havent seen in a long time. We were just talking early this morning in the live trading room how important it is in times like this to have something that is stable. Our ATM asset allocation portfolio continues to make money as the market loses. Diversification will save you in times like this and having something that can make money as markets go down is a big part of that. We were oh so close...again on our SPX 0DTE yesterday. The risk managment is on point but we just haven't been able to land on a big profit zone. 

All we can really do in a market like this is make sure our risk is in check. The results will be what they will be. Here's a look at my day yesterday.

We'll work the same approach today. We've got $1,600 or extrinsic on a 2DTE expriation in our scalping setup. That served us well yesterday. Let's see what we can do with that today. If the markets can build today like they did yesterday we may be able to get $400+ out of another roll up and out. That would be an easy way to profits today.
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The notorious JPM collar trade: The JPM Collar (June 30th Exp): Short 5880 Call Long 5290 Put Short 4460 Put What This Suggests JPM Expects: 1. They’re Not Expecting a Big Rally Above 5880 By selling the 5880 call, they are capping upside. This usually means: “We’re okay missing out on further gains above this level.” It implies a neutral to slightly bullish view — but not euphoric. So: they don’t expect SPX to go way above 5880 before June 30. 2. They Want Protection Starting Around 5290 Buying the 5290 put signals concern about a moderate correction. They’re willing to pay for insurance if SPX falls below current levels. This means: “We’re preparing for a potential pullback or downside volatility.” 3. They’re Willing to Take Some Tail Risk Below 4460 Selling the 4460 put reduces cost — but opens risk if SPX crashes hard. This implies: “We don’t think SPX is going below 4460 — and if it does, we’ll take the hit.” So they’re betting that: A crash below 4460 is unlikely Or if it happens, they’re okay absorbing that risk (possibly because they have other hedges)
This had generally been a good guide for what plays out and what the "big boys" are doing with their money.

Let's take a look at the markets today: Sell mode is still working. Bulls tried a few times yesterday but didn't acomplish much. 

All the major indices we track and trade continue to sit on the "cliff". There's a lot of downside potential below it if the bulls can't hold this level.

I continue to watch the 270 level on VTI. As long as that level holds, I continue to hold my long /MNQ in our scalping program and cover it with a /NQ credit spread.  It faught well yesterday. 

My lean or bias today is still neutral. We need to either recapture our upper resistance level or lose the cliff to get this market moving again. Yesterdays 100+ intra-day swing in the SPX ended up being nothing at the end of the day. Directional moves will come. When? We don't know.

Let's try to be patient with our SPX entry. Work our /MNQ scalp to maximize it's potential and squeeze as much as we can out of the 1HTE's today. See you all in the live trading room!

Welcome back traders! Markets are looking weak again. Lots of uncertainty right now. That brings up the topic of risk. We talked about this a lot last week in the trading room. How much risk is acceptable? The knee jerk reaction is "none!" Of course we need (even want) risk. Without it there is no reward. The question is, what is the sweet spot with regards to a 0DTE? It seems for our setups and approach $500 dollars risk is the sweet spot. Any less and you'll be stopping out too much and get chopped up with fees and commissions. Any more and it gets hard to overcome it with the follow up adjustment. I did a good job on the risk management Friday with our NDX. It had almost $2,000 of profit potential with minimal downside. It didn't hit for a profit but the risk/reward was good.

I couldn't quite keep the risk on the SPX below $500 but I was close. We'll focus on this same target today.
Here's a look at my day Friday. 

Let's jump right in and look at the markets as we start a new week.
​Technicals are in sell mode. Futures are down, once again this morning.

Most of the indices are sitting on the cliff we formed a few weeks ago with the last big downturn. A break below this current level could offer up substantial downside. 

One of the downside triggers I'm watching is the 270 level on VTI. A break below that could signal an increased inflow of selling.

​The SPY closed the week at $555.73 (-1.46%), retreating sharply after an early bullish gap up. That move was quickly reversed as price rejected the top of a bear flag, putting bears back in control. Selling accelerated midweek, triggering a breakdown from the pattern and driving SPY toward its year-to-date lows, leaving bulls on the ropes.

​QQQ closed the week at $468.97 (-2.47%), finishing on a weak note after rejecting its all-time high anchored VWAP, which represents the average price paid since the market’s peak. A rejection here indicates trapped longs are selling into strength at breakeven to reduce exposure. It also broke below a key high-volume node, leaving the index with little support below. With bearish momentum building, the bears head into the week holding the upper hand.

​IWM closed the week at $200.45 (-1.63%), continuing to underperform as small caps struggle for traction. Unlike its large-cap counterparts, it never even reached its all-time high anchored VWAP and now clings to the bottom of a key high-volume node. With support thinning out, a test of the 52-week low appears increasingly likely as IWM remains the weakest link among major indexes.

Let's take a look at the expected moves for this week. VIX1D is up. That should be good for premium collection.

It's not often we see a 2% weekly expected move in the SPY.

My lean or bias today is neutral. They may sound off with all the bearishness and with futures being down this morning but I'm basing off of current futures levels. As I type /ES is down -60 and /NQ down -285. It's (Obviously) likely that the indices finish in the red today but I think a lot of the downside is already reflected in the futures. 

Let's take a look at some key levels in the market.
​/ES: On the daily chart 5509 is the key "cliff" level. It was the low we hit on Mar. 13th, on our previous downturn. We bounced hard at the level then. Will we get there again? If so, do we bounce?

Intra-day on /ES: 5599 is first resistance with 5623 next. 5513 is support.
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I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room. Let's keep the focus on risk first...profit second and we should have a good day.

Good Friday to you all! PCE numbers are out this morning. The FED's favorite inflation gauge could set the tone for todays trading session. We had another losing day yesterday. Two days in a row for me. That's rare but it still doesn't make it feel any better. Waiting longer for entries seems to be the key. Let's see if I can do better today.
Fortunatley our ATM portfolio continues to crank our profits as the market continues to drop. Here's a look at my day yesterday:

We'll update the monthy YTD results on our ATM portfolio Next Tues.

Let's take a look at the markets:
​Techncally we're still in sell mode. That likey won't change unless the indices can reclaim the 200DMA. That seems to be a big task.

Not a lot to see on the indices. They aren't continuing the big bearish move is started a few weeks ago but it's also not reclaiming the 200DMA. We seem to be in a bit of a waiting game right now.

une S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.20%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.32% this morning as market participants remain cautious amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs while also awaiting the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge.
Investors have been paring back risk ahead of April 2nd, when U.S. President Donald Trump is set to unveil so-called “reciprocal tariffs” that risk escalating the trade war and hurting the global economy. Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note that there are indications investors are growing more worried about the possibility of stagflation in the U.S. due to tariffs.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended lower. Automakers sank after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25% tariff on auto imports starting next week, with General Motors (GM) slumping over -7% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Ford Motor (F) falling more than -3%. Also, AppLovin (APP) plummeted over -20% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after Muddy Waters Research issued a short report against the company. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slid more than -3% after Jefferies downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. On the bullish side, Dollar Tree (DLTR) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500, adding to Wednesday’s +3% gain after selling its Family Dollar business to Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for about $1 billion.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday that the Q4 GDP growth estimate was revised upward to +2.4% (q/q annualized) in its final print, stronger than expectations of no change at +2.3%. Also, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell -1K to 224K, compared with the 225K expected. In addition, U.S. pending home sales rose +2.0% m/m in February, stronger than expectations of +0.9% m/m.
“The monthly jobs report may paint a different picture, but [yesterday’s] jobless claims number suggests the labor market is still on solid ground. For markets, though, the question is whether anything will be able to rise above the noise of the tariff story,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “In the near-term, the most likely scenario is more choppy trading,” he added.
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that swift policy changes by the Trump administration have created “a sense of instability” among businesses, and the accompanying fall in sentiment could “quiet demand.” With a robust labor market and inflation still running high, the Fed’s “moderately restrictive” stance is a “good place to be,” Barkin noted. Also, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said it seems “inevitable” that tariffs will fuel inflation, at least in the short term, adding that holding interest rates steady for an extended period is likely appropriate.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.4% chance of no rate change and an 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the May FOMC meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y in February, compared to the previous figures of +0.3% m/m and +2.6% y/y. 
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will also be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate February Personal Spending to be +0.5% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.4% m/m, compared to January’s figures of -0.2% m/m and +0.9% m/m, respectively. 
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure at 57.9 in March, compared to 64.7 in February. 
In addition, market participants will be anticipating a speech from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.339%, down -0.69%.

My lean or bias today is more neutral. PCE could be a catalyst today. Technicals are bearish, Futures are down as I type this but I will go out on a limb and say that if PCE comes in just right, the markets may bounce today. Don't be surprised if we are up later in the day.

Let's book some profit today...for a change! See you all in the live trading room. Let's finish the week strong.

Welcome back traders! This week is going by fast. Yesterday was a losing day for me overall. That's fine...it happens. It will happen again. That's how trading works. No trader makes money every day but...one thing we discussed yesterday in the trading room was, how much loss is too much? Risk of ruin is an important topic for traders to understand. Generally it focuses on how much risk will wipe you out. How much risk will blow up your trading account. That's important to know if you are trading a small amount. Say 2-5K. I prefer to use to to gauge how much risk (or loss) is acceptable. 2% of your account is the general rule. I lost almost 4% yesterday so that's about twice as much risk as I should have allowed. I'll work harder today to keep that in check.
​Here's my results from yesterday.

Fortunately for us our Asset allocation portfolio just keeps kicking butt. The A.T.M. program is just killing the market this year and maybe more importantly, it's passive. Set it in the morning and forget it. I'm very excited to see what our year end result will be. We'll update the Monthly figures next week. If you'd like a passive approach that is crushing it right now come check it out.

Let's take a look at the markets: Yesterdays sell off took the wind out of the bulls sails.

We didn't last long above the 200DMA. Only the DIA remains bullish.

une S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.01%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.04% this morning as investors weigh U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on automotive imports.
President Trump signed a proclamation on Wednesday to impose a 25% tariff on auto imports. The auto tariffs are set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Washington time on April 3rd, initially applying to fully assembled vehicles. By May 3rd, the scope will widen to cover key automobile parts such as engines, transmissions, powertrain components, and electrical systems, with the possibility of further expansion if needed, according to the proclamation. As a result, shares of legacy automakers slumped in pre-market trading, with General Motors (GM) sliding over -5% and Ford Motor (F) falling nearly -3%.
Investors now await a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, including the third estimate of fourth-quarter GDP and jobless claims figures, as well as comments from a Federal Reserve official.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed in the red. The Magnificent Seven stocks sank, with Nvidia (NVDA) slumping over -5% to lead losers in the Dow and Tesla (TSLA) sliding more than -5%. Also, chip stocks retreated, with Arm Holdings (ARM) dropping over -7% to lead losers in the Nasdaq 100 and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) falling more than -4%. In addition, AI infrastructure stocks plunged after TD Cowen said that Microsoft abandoned more data center projects in the U.S. and Europe, with Super Micro Computer (SMCI) slumping over -8% to lead losers in the S&P 500. On the bullish side, Cintas (CTAS) climbed more than +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company posted upbeat FQ3 results and raised its full-year EPS guidance.
“Uncertainty on the tariff front remains ridiculously high, leaving it incredibly tough for businesses or consumers to plan more than about a day into the future, and still making it nigh-on impossible for market participants to price risk,” said Michael Brown, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose +0.9% m/m in February, stronger than expectations of -1.1% m/m, while core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, advanced +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Wednesday that unpredictable fiscal policies under President Donald Trump’s administration are clouding the central bank’s economic outlook. He noted that the Fed should “just sit where we are for an extended period of time until we get clarity.” Also, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said it’s uncertain whether the impact of tariffs will be temporary and warned that secondary effects might prompt policymakers to keep interest rates unchanged for longer.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 90.4% probability of no rate change and a 9.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at May’s monetary policy meeting.
Today, all eyes are on the Commerce Department’s final estimate of gross domestic product, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect the U.S. economy to expand at an annual rate of 2.3% in the fourth quarter, in line with initial estimates.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 225K, compared to last week’s number of 223K.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee the February figure coming in at +0.9% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -4.6% m/m.
U.S. Wholesale Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists forecast the preliminary February figure at +0.7% m/m, compared to +0.8% m/m in January.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin.
On the earnings front, fitness apparel maker Lululemon Athletica (LULU) is set to report its Q4 earnings results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.392%, up +1.24%.

There's a fair amount of "chat" out there today that could trigger some moves:
​Docket
08:30 ET
US GDP Q3 Final
GDP QoQ – Forecast: 2.3% | Prior: 2.3% | Range: 2.6% / 1.3%
Price Index – Forecast: 2.4% | Prior: 2.4% | Range: 2.5% . 2.4%
Core PCE – Forecast: 2.7% | Prior: 2.7% | Range: 2.8% / 2.6%
US Weekly Initial & Weekly Jobless Claims
Initial Claims – Forecast: 225k | Prior: 223k | Range: 240k / 215k
Continued Claims – Forecast: 1.885M | Prior: 1.892M | Range: 1.91M / 1.866M
11:30 ET
US sells $75 bln 4-Week Bills

Speakers
09:00 ET
ECB’s de Guindos speaks in a conversation with IIF Managing Director and Chief Economist Marcello Estevão at the 2025 IIF European Summit – Europe at a Crossroads: a Time to Act for Competitiveness and Growth
12:15 ET
ECB’s Wunsch speaks in Brussels (same event as above)
12:45 ET
ECB’s Escriva speaks in Brussels (same event)
14:40 ET
ECB’s Schnabel delivers the “Mais Lecture 2025: Financial literacy and monetary policy transmission” in London.
16:30 ET
Fed’ Barkin gives a lecture at Washington and Lee University, followed by an audience Q&A.
Text and Q&A are expected.
Fed’s Collins speaks in a fireside chat on the economic outlook and monetary policy in Boston. No text is expected, but there will be a Q&A

My bias or lean today: Brearish. I was bullish yesterday. I thought the bulls would be able to hold the 200DMA. That clearly didn't happen. If your a bull don't despair. Recapturing the loss of something as technically big as the 200DMA rarely happens in a day. Somtimes it can take weeks however, The bears didn't do the bulls any favors yesterday. With "tariff talk" hanging over the markets at least through April 4th (and probably much, much longer) there's enough uncertainty that the bulls will need some sort of a white knight to show up and give a helping hand.

I'll see you all shortly in the live trading room. Let's make it a green day!

Welcome back traders! We had another peacful, easy day yesterday. Our "focus on risk...build for potential" continues to make trading fun and stress free, all while giving us the potential to still pocket $1,000+ a day in profits. We'll talk more about that in our zoom this morning but right now I want to highlight the "best" trade we've done all year. How do I quantify best? That's a tough one. It's certainly not based on how much it made. It's based on hold time. ROI and how "safe" it was (P.O.P.) Here's the trade. It was on Nat gas. 1DTE. We put it on right before the close yesterday and we'll take it off this morning so less than a day trade, time wise. It's a $3,431 trade and it's up $130 dollars (or 4%) overnight and here's the best part. It's statistically a 99,5% POP trade. What does that mean? Well, there is statistically no trade can be called "guaranteed". The best probability you can get. The closest you can come to a guarantee is 99.5%. That's where this trade is. Check it out.

These opportunities are rare but I look for them every day. If you're doing the same trades everyone else is you'll get the same results Whether it's the Theta fairy, the Vampire trade, our unique 0DTE's or the 1HTE BTC trades, I'm proud of the fact that we have setups no one else has.

Let's take a look at our results from yesterday:

Once again, we choose to "Focus on risk...build for potential". I love this approach and the whole concept of it. Let's build setups that have the least amount of risk possible while still giving us "potential" for home run days. That's a hard task Increase safety while simultaneously providing high return potential. We build the trade with a high probability and then create "pockets" of high profit potential. Sometimes they hit...sometimes they don't but it really is the best of both worlds. I made $285 profit on our SPX 0DTE yesterday. It could have been $1,500 had it landed in one of the profit tents. It didn't. That's o.k. There wasn't a single moment yesterday where I was concerned with risk. That's how I like it. 

Let's look at the market to start today:
Buy mode continues! We are working those 200DMA's. Today should be telling. If we can hold them today, even if we don't go higher, that would be a huge win for the bulls.

We are now above the 200DMA on three of the four major indices. Next area of focus is the horizontal black lines. Above those and it's full stream ahead for the bulls.

Probably the best overall read on the market health is the VTI. A better, more rounded gauge. It also broke above it's 200DMA yesterday. I'll be watching this closely today to see if it holds or retraces.

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -0.07% this morning as cautious investors refrain from making big bets amid uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariffs.
Tariffs have continued to take center stage for investors. The Trump administration signaled that the upcoming wave of U.S. tariffs could be more targeted than initially expected, as nations hurried to obtain exemptions from the impending duties. On Tuesday, President Trump stated he didn’t want too many exceptions, but he would “probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be... that would be very tough for people.” Moreover, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that U.S. tariffs on copper imports could be implemented within several weeks, months ahead of the deadline for a decision.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended higher. International Paper (IP) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the paper and pulp giant issued solid FY25 revenue guidance. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks gained ground, with Tesla (TSLA) rising more than +3% and Alphabet (GOOGL) advancing over +1%. In addition, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) rose more than +3% after BTIG upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $431. On the bearish side, KB Home (KBH) slid over -5% after the homebuilder posted downbeat FQ1 results and cut its full-year housing revenue guidance.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to a 4-year low of 92.9 in March, weaker than expectations of 94.2. Also, the U.S. January S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. increased to +4.7% y/y from +4.5% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +4.6% y/y. In addition, U.S. new home sales rose +1.8% m/m to 676K in February, weaker than expectations of 682K. Finally, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -4 in March, weaker than expectations of 8.
“Sentiment continues to wane among investors, consumers, and businesses as economic concerns and economic policy uncertainty take their toll. Until there’s more certainty on the tariff and macro front, sentiment and confidence remain vulnerable,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler on Tuesday voiced support for keeping interest rates unchanged for “some time,” while pointing out an uptick in some measures of Americans’ inflation expectations. “I am paying close attention to the acceleration of price increases and higher inflation expectations, especially given the recent bout of inflation in the past few years,” Kugler said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.4% chance of no rate change and an 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in May.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast February Durable Goods Orders at -1.1% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.2% m/m, compared to the prior figures of +3.1% m/m and 0.0% m/m, respectively. 
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be 1.500M, compared to last week’s value of 1.745M.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem throughout the day.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Dollar Tree (DLTR), Chewy (CHWY), Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), and Jefferies Financial (JEF) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.316%, up +0.19%.

Basically, we are back to waiting around for more Tariff news!

My bias or lean today is bullish. Nothing really to talk about here. You simply have to be. Pushing above the 200DMA and your bearish? That's a tough one to justify. Could Trump "tweet a tariff" and send us back down? You better believe it! Still...you've just got to go with the probablities here. Up we go.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly. I do have my last eye appt. today so it will break up the day a bit but shouldn't disrupt our trading too much. 

Welcome back traders! Well...yesterday was impressive for the bulls. Two things caught my eye. #1. The /ES was able to break above the 200DMA. That's big.

#2. The rally was broad based. 

While the NDX and VTI have not broken back above their respective 200DMA's yet, they are also looking much better. The bulls may be back! We've got two synthetic longs on with SPY and VTI in our ATM portfolio. Those could benefit greatly in the next week if the bulls can maintain this pace.

Let's talk about our day yesterday. We had what I'd call an "acceptable" day. We made over $600 dollars. I think anytime you have a profitable day it's a good day however, we missed a profit zone in our SPX trade which left a lot of profit on the table. Is that O.K.? I think it is. Here's what our final SPX position looked like going into the close. 

We had a couple profit "zones" built with butterflies that would have yielded us over $1,000 profit. They didn't hit (as you can see) and we ended up with twenty bucks. We've had several of our big profit zones miss lately and we end up with quite a bit less than we could have made. Is that a problem? No. I think it's the right way to manage risk. If risk management is our first priority and profits our second then we need to have some form of asymmetric setups working. Something with low risk/high reward. That takes care of the risk management aspect but...those trades come with low probablities.  We did have one of our trading members who got a better level for his butterfly. Nice job Gentry!

The markets are every changing and with the 200DMA now looking more like support than resistance they could be changing back to bullish. That will change our I.V. and likely our approach...once again, but for now, the butterflies and broken wing butterflies seem to offer the best risk/reward. I'll focus a bullish broken wing setup today on the SPX and likely skip the NDX. Make sure to tune in to the trading room today as we'll be building a 0DTE on Nat gas for tomorrows expiration that I think you'll all like.

Here's a look at our results from yesterday:

We are nearing the end of the month. We'll update our A.T.M. results. If you want a little preview, let's just say we are crushing the SP500! This could be a banner year for that portfolio.

Let's take a look at this changing market. Technicals are firmly bullish.

We certainly don't have an "all clear" signal if you are a bull but the DIA and SPY are now back above the 200DMA. That's bullish. We do need to give the market some time to verify if this is indeed a new support or still a resistance zone.

My lean or bias is bullish. We've started our scalping room off with a long /MNQ which I would like to hold for a while and cash flow against it. While recapturing the 200DMA is very bullish, it doesn't usually happen in one trading session. It can take weeks to solidify.

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are down -0.11%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are down -0.19% this morning, pointing to a slightly lower open on Wall Street after yesterday’s rally, while investors await a raft of U.S. economic data as well as remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
Tariffs have remained in focus for investors, with U.S. equities rallying on Monday amid optimism over more targeted U.S. levies. U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday twice indicated that trading partners could be granted exemptions or reductions from his “reciprocal” tariffs. However, the U.S. president also stated that he will soon impose tariffs on automobiles and pharmaceuticals, and later added that levies on lumber and semiconductors will be introduced further down the line. “So we’ll be announcing some of these things in the very near future, not the long future, the very near future,” Trump said.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed sharply higher, with the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq 100 notching 2-week highs. The Magnificent Seven stocks rallied, with Tesla (TSLA) surging over +11% to lead gainers in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 and Nvidia (NVDA) rising more than +3%. Also, chip stocks gained ground, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) climbing nearly +7% and NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) rising more than +5%. In addition, Azek (AZEK) jumped over +17% after James Hardie Industries agreed to acquire the manufacturer of outdoor living products in a cash and stock deal valued at $8.75 billion. On the bearish side, Lockheed Martin (LMT) fell more than -1% after Melius Research and BofA downgraded the stock.
“Stocks look to continue to rally from oversold levels, and any reduction in potential tariff impacts will be an upward catalyst. I believe we have seen the worst of the market’s pullback, though we will continue to see increased volatility at the beginning of next month based on the outcome of President Trump’s tariff policies,” said Ivan Feinseth at Tigress Financial Partners.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March, weaker than expectations of 51.9. At the same time, the U.S. March S&P Global services PMI rose to 54.3, stronger than expectations of 51.2.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said on Monday that he now sees just one interest rate cut this year, down from his previous forecast of two reductions, as tariff hikes are slowing progress on disinflation. “I moved to one mainly because I think we’re going to see inflation be very bumpy and not move dramatically and in a clear way to the 2% target,” Bostic said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 89.2% probability of no rate change and a 10.8% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in May.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the March CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 94.2, compared to last month’s figure of 98.3.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. Economists expect the January figure to be +4.6% y/y, compared to +4.5% y/y in December.
U.S. New Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 682K in February, compared to 657K in January.
The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure will stand at 8 in March, compared to the previous value of 6.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and New York Fed President John Williams.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.351%, up +0.46%.

Let's take a look at the intra-day levels of /ES and BTC.
​/ES: As mentioned before...we are back above the 200DMA. Is it up, up and away?

I look forward to seeing you all again in the live trading room shortly. Also, a big thank you to the fellow trader on twitter (X) that reached out to me yesterday thanking me for the blog. It's free to all and soley a labor of love for me and sometimes I'm not sure anyone cares or reads it! LOL. That was appreciated.

Welcome back traders! Another new week ahead of us. Are the bulls finally back? They are certainly trying. That pesky 200DMA is a big overhang so we may have a setup today that can be confusing. It certainly looks like a bullish day. Futures are gapping up. Technicals are bullish but... I'm looking for a retrace at some point in the day. Will we retrace and close the gap up zone? Hard to say but I'm probably looking for some bearish setups in todays bullish price action. We did land a nice profit this morning on a Theta fairy so that's a good start to the week. I'm hopeful we can get some additional Theta fairys working this week.
​We had a solid day Friday. Here's a look at our results:

Let's take a look at the markets to start the week.
​As I mentioned above, the bulls are trying but the 200DMA is a big resistance level.

Technicals are back to bullish. Let's see if the bulls can finish strong today and hold that into tomorrow. That will give us a better idea if this bullish move has staying power. 

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are up +0.97%, and June Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQM25) are up +1.14% this morning, with investors hopeful that the next wave of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs will be less severe than previously signaled.
Sentiment got a boost after Bloomberg reported that the next round of U.S. tariffs, due on April 2nd, is expected to be more targeted than the sweeping measures previously anticipated. Trump will unveil broad reciprocal tariffs on countries or blocs but is expected to exempt certain ones, and for now, the administration does not plan to introduce additional sector-specific tariffs at the same event - contrary to what Trump had previously hinted, the report said.
Investor focus this week is on the release of the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge and other key economic data.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended in the green. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed over +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underweight with a price target of $45. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks gained ground, with Tesla (TSLA) rising more than +5% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100 and Apple (AAPL) advancing nearly +2%. In addition, Boeing (BA) rose over +3% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the beleaguered plane maker secured a contract to design and build the U.S.’s next-generation stealth fighter jet. On the bearish side, Micron Technology (MU) slumped more than -8% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the largest U.S. maker of computer memory chips offered a weak FQ3 adjusted gross margin forecast. Also, FedEx (FDX) slid over -6% after the shipping giant cut its full-year guidance. 
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Friday that hard data continues to indicate a strong economy and reiterated his expectation for rates to come down over the next 12 to 18 months, provided that inflation continues to ease. Also, New York Fed President John Williams said, “The current modestly restrictive stance of the Fed’s monetary policy is entirely appropriate given the solid labor market and inflation still running somewhat above our 2% goal.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 85.1% chance of no rate change and a 14.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s May meeting.
This week, market participants will closely monitor a slew of U.S. economic data for clues on how the economy is holding up amid President Trump’s recent unpredictable tariff announcements and increased volatility in the U.S. stock market. The February reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight, as it could offer insights into the interest-rate outlook. Other noteworthy data releases include U.S. GDP (third estimate), the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., New Home Sales, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, Crude Oil Inventories, Goods Trade Balance, Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventories (preliminary), Pending Home Sales, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.
“The macro data seems biased to be weak in the coming weeks, but the PCE inflation data will likely show some stubbornness, remaining a tad elevated,” ING analysts said in a note.
Investors will also hear perspectives from several central bankers this week, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler, New York Fed President John Williams, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin. 
In addition, notable companies like discount retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR), homebuilder KB Home (KBH), fitness apparel maker Lululemon Athletica (LULU), online pet retailer Chewy (CHWY), and video game retailer and meme stock favorite GameStop (GME) are scheduled to release their quarterly results this week.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the March Manufacturing PMI will come in at 51.9, compared to last month’s value of 52.7.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 51.0 in February. Economists expect the preliminary March figure to be 51.2.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.281%, up +0.68%.

​SPY triggered its first weekly bearish 8/21 EMA cross since the October 2023 correction, closing the week at $563.98 (+0.22%). This shift is clearly highlighted by the EMA Crossover Candle Colors Indicator, which paints candles red when the fast EMA crosses below the slow EMA. The last crossover in 2023 turned out to be a head fake, leaving traders now questioning if this is just another false alarm.

​QQQ ended the week at $480.84 (+0.25%), with its 8/21 EMA cross carrying more weight, considering the last one marked the beginning of a year-long bear market in 2022. With volatility compressed last week and key tech names under pressure, the signal adds to a growing list of warning signs that bearish momentum is brewing.

​IWM closed the week at $203.79 (+0.46%), outperforming the large caps on a relative basis last week. However, the small-cap index has been a consistent laggard and has given back all of last year’s gains. It is now attempting to catch some support on a high-volume node in the volume profile but has yet to hold any sort of bullish momentum.

Let's take a look at the implied moves and I.V. for this week. The numbers are not bad. 

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly! I've got some more info on the Costa Rica project and a little side mastermind day if you are looking at going down to look at the home.

Welcome back traders. Happy Friday. I've been thinking alot after the close yesterday and even as I woke up this morning about the concept or idea of a "perfect day" as a trader. What does it look like? It will obviously be different from individual to individual. The easy, knee-jerk answer is "I made a lot of money!". Making money is certainly part of it. We should enjoy trading but we wouldn't do it without the potential for financial reward however, there is so much more that could/should go into creating a "perfect day"  Efficiency is important. We've had plenty of $30,000 profit days but we also used $250,000 of capital. Consistency is important. Nothing is guaranteed but it would be nice to have some expectations of profit on a regular basis. The amount of profit is important as well. We'd love to make $5,000/day but do we really need to? Is that a viable, sustainable goal? Our results yesterday had me asking myself these questions. Initially I was "O.K." with our day. We didn't get rich but we didn't lose however, after thinking about it I believe that our day yesterday was close to "perfect". We were particularly efficient with our deployment of capital. Sitting on almost 80% of our cash. Could we have put more of it to work? Sure but it wouldn't have been great on the reward part of the risk/reward ratio. We made $700 dollars. Did we want more? Sure! Who doesn't? $700 dollars a day, if you can generate it consistenly adds up nicely of a years time. It was a boring day. We joked we could have taken not one but two naps and not missed anything! We want boring! Sitting in a casino for six hours a day, sweating and pulling out our hair is not a sustainable business. We never once worried about our risk getting out of control. I use a simple gut check each day to know immediately if I did a good job that day. "Did I enjoy myself?" If I feel like I've just been through the ringer then, no matter how much I made (or lost) it wasn't a good day.

I hope you've got a plan in place that gives you lots of "perfect days". That's what we all strive for.
​Here's a look at our day:

Let's take a look at the markets. We expected a retrace yesterday and that's what we got. It's always easier to trade well when the market does what you expect it to. The overall trend is still obviously bearish however, the bulls are trying!

The VTI has spent the last fourdays trying to shake off the bearishness and push higher. No luck so far but, it's trying. 

Technicals continue to be bearish. Frankly, there's just not a lot to be bullish about. Earnings yesterday were bad and added to the Tariff concerns.

We currently have an earnings trade on FDX. While our trade looks solid, the stock is getting whacked. FedEx is a harbinger of the economy and what it's telling us is not good.

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.35%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.42% this morning as concerns over U.S. tariffs and weak corporate earnings weighed on sentiment.
Investors are facing an increasingly uncertain outlook for the global economy amid concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that both reciprocal tariffs and specific additional sector-based tariffs would take effect on April 2nd, posing a significant risk to the global economy.
Investors also digested some disappointing corporate earnings reports. FedEx (FDX) slumped over -6% in pre-market trading after the shipping giant, which is considered an economic barometer, reported weaker-than-expected FQ3 adjusted EPS and cut its full-year guidance. Also, Nike (NKE) slid more than -4% in pre-market trading after the sportswear giant warned of further declines in revenue and profitability in the current quarter under its turnaround strategy, with the growing trade war adding to uncertainty. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed lower. Accenture (ACN) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after its chief executive stated that federal spending cuts were beginning to affect the company’s revenue. Also, Microchip Technology (MCHP) slid more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after the struggling semiconductor company announced that it had hired Macquarie Group to assist in selling its wafer fabrication plant in Arizona and launched an underwritten public offering of $1.35 billion in depositary shares. In addition, Rivian Automotive (RIVN) fell over -4% after Piper Sandler downgraded the stock to Neutral from Overweight. On the bullish side, Darden Restaurants (DRI) climbed over +5% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the Olive Garden owner provided solid FY25 comparable sales guidance.
Economic data released on Thursday showed that the U.S. Philly Fed manufacturing index came in at 12.5 in March, stronger than expectations of 8.8. Also, U.S. February existing home sales unexpectedly rose +4.2% m/m to 4.26M, stronger than expectations of 3.95M. In addition, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +2K to 223K, compared with the 224K expected. At the same time, the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.3% m/m in February, weaker than expectations of -0.2% m/m.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is bracing for a quarterly event known as “triple-witching,” during which derivatives contracts linked to equities, index options, and futures expire, prompting traders collectively to either roll over their positions or initiate new ones. About $4.5 trillion worth of options tied to individual stocks, indexes, and exchange-traded funds are set to mature today, according to an estimate from Citigroup. 
The U.S. economic data slate is empty on Friday. However, investors will focus on a speech from New York Fed President John Williams.
U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.8% probability of no rate change and a 16.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in May.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.221%, down -0.28%.

It's triple witching today with $4.5 trillion (that's with a T!) of expirations rolling off today. It could be a volatile one.
​My bias today is every so slightly bearish. As I said, the bulls are trying but they appear to be outmatched at the present.

The word recession is getting more and more play. ​8 times it fell this hard. 8 times we had a recession. It's the Conference Board Leading Indicators divided by Lagging Indicators. All 8 times it fell 10.6% or more, which is the current decline, we were in recession at that very moment. Recession right now.

Let's look at the /ES intra-day levels for todays 0DTE trading. I'll skip BTC since it's been tough the last few days and NDX because that will be a late day entry IF we trade it. 
On a daily chart the /ES actually looks a bit bullish! At least it's trying. It's tried pushing higher the last 6 trading days. It's still below the 200DMA and we are no longer in the oversold zone it's going to need some assistance to go higher. It's not just going to happen. 

I got the info on the Costa Rica Investment property yesterday. I'll put up a video on the youtube channel this weekend with the details and the term sheet and post the link in discord for those who expressed an interest.
​See you all in the live trading room shortly!

Bottom line: Develop a plan. Here's our saying from the trading room, "You develop your Rules. You practice your Rules. You revise your Rules. You practice your new Rules. You follow your Rules. You Rule. “Own your trade”.
​

Welcome back traders! FOMC has come and gone and it did NOT disappoint! We had a great day scalping. I'll say this again. You don't need to do every strategy in the world, every day but...#1. You should have them in your bag of tricks. #2. That gives you the ability to pull out different approaches on different days. There's never a guarantee of profits but on days like yesterday, scalping should be a priority. If you're looking for movement, FOMC will usually deliver. I completely ruined a perfect setup in our 0DTE. It was absolutely fine and I rolled up puts at the last moment. That was a mistake. I'll try to do better today. Our risk management was still on point and I guess, if we are not going to make money on a given day we should at least set a goal to not lose.
Here's a look at my day:

Let's take a look at the markets: 
With the push up yesterday and the retrace in the futures this morning, we are back to a neutral rating. I quoted an interesting result yesterday that of the last 10 FOMC days, 80% of the time whatever the move on the day, it retraced the next. That statistic looks to improve today as we're getting a retrace in the futures. 

While the SPY is getting closer to its 200DMA we are still clearly in a bearish stance. All the major indices are in the red YTD. The DIA appears to be having to best support right now. 

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.43%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.60% this morning, tracking losses in European equities after ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that U.S. tariffs heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook.
Stock futures initially moved higher after the Federal Reserve indicated there remains scope to lower interest rates later this year, as any tariff-driven rise in inflation is expected to be temporary. However, concerns remain that U.S. President Donald Trump will keep raising trade tariffs, which could dampen economic growth and drive inflation.
Investors now await a flurry of U.S. economic data and earnings reports from several high-profile companies.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted to maintain the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.50% for the second consecutive meeting. In a post-meeting statement, officials said that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.” Also, the Fed said that, starting in April, it would further slow the pace at which it is shrinking its balance sheet. In addition, the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections showed that officials anticipate a half percentage point of rate cuts in 2025, implying two quarter-percentage-point reductions, unchanged from their December forecast.
At a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the considerable uncertainty stemming from President Donald Trump’s significant policy changes but reiterated that the central bank is in no rush to adjust interest rates. “Inflation has started to move up,” he said, “we think partly in response to tariffs. And there may be a delay in further progress over the course of this year.” However, the Fed chief noted that his baseline expectation is that any inflation increase driven by tariffs will be “transitory.”
“The Fed indirectly cut rates [yesterday] by taking action to reduce the pace of runoff of its Treasury holdings. This paves the way for the Fed to eliminate runoff by summer, and, with any luck, inflation data will be in place where reducing the Federal Funds rate will be the obvious choice,” said Jamie Cox at Harris Financial Group. 
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the green. Boeing (BA) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Dow after CFO Brian West stated that the plane maker’s cash burn was slowing and provided a positive outlook on the company’s business. Also, Tesla (TSLA) rose more than +4% after the EV maker received California’s approval to begin carrying passengers in its vehicles. In addition, Signet Jewelers (SIG) soared over +17% after the world’s largest diamond jewelry retailer posted upbeat Q4 results and gave strong Q1 revenue guidance. On the bearish side, Gilead Sciences (GILD) fell more than -2% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the Health and Human Services Department plans to significantly cut the federal government’s funding for domestic HIV prevention.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.3% probability of no rate change and a 16.7% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in May.
Today, memory and storage products maker Micron Technology (MU), apparel giant Nike (NKE), and economic bellwether FedEx (FDX), along with other notable companies like Accenture (ACN), Lennar (LEN), and Darden Restaurants (DRI), are slated to release their quarterly results.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the March Philly Fed manufacturing index will stand at 8.8, compared to last month’s value of 18.1.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists expect this figure to be 224K, compared to last week’s number of 220K.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure coming in at 3.95M in February, compared to 4.08M in January. 
U.S. Current Account data will come in today. Economists estimate this figure will stand at -$330.0B in the fourth quarter, compared to -$310.9B in the third quarter.
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index for the U.S. will be released today as well. Economists expect the February figure to be -0.2% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.3% m/m.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.217%, down -0.92%.

Jobless claims are the only pre-planned news catalysts for the day that may move the markets.

Lot's of good trade opportunities for us today as well as some good conversations and trainings. I want to explore the thought process behind looking at the probabilites of a trade working vs. the potential profit. It should make for some good converstion around the pros and cons of different setups. I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly!

Welcome back traders! Welcome to FOMC day for those that celebrate it! As traders, we just want movement and FOMC days usually delivers. We've already got our first tiny position working 

We'll come out of the gate adding the put side. 

And then work to fill in the "valley of death" as the day progresses towards Powells testimony. 

We had a picture perfect day yesterday. Not because we made maximum profits. In fact, we ended up in the lowest profit range.

No, it was picture perfect because it was an easy day. You could have napped most of our day. Good risk management. Good captial deployment and no nail biting! Prioritizing risk management over profits continues to feel good and not stressing about your trades is a "payoff" just as much as a cash profit. Take a look at our days results:

March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.21%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.22% this morning, pointing to a slightly higher open on Wall Street as investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s comments.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed lower. The Magnificent Seven stocks sank, with Tesla (TSLA) sliding over -5% and Meta Platforms (META) falling more than -3%. Also, travel stocks retreated on economic concerns, with Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) slumping over -7% and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) dropping more than -4%. In addition, Bakkt Holdings (BKKT) plummeted over -27% after Bank of America and Webull Pay announced they would not renew their commercial agreements with the company. On the bullish side, Harrow Health (HROW) surged more than +15% after the company reported better-than-expected preliminary Q4 revenue.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. housing starts rose +11.2% m/m to 1.501M in February, stronger than expectations of 1.380M. Also, U.S. February building permits, a proxy for future construction, fell -1.2% m/m to 1.456M, stronger than expectations of 1.450M. In addition, U.S. industrial production advanced +0.7% m/m in February, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m, while manufacturing production gained +0.9% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m. At the same time, the U.S. February import price index unexpectedly rose +0.4% m/m, stronger than expectations of -0.1% m/m.
Today, all eyes are focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision later in the day. The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to hold the Fed funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%. Market watchers will closely follow Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference and the central bank’s quarterly “dot plot” in its Summary of Economic Projections for clues on the path ahead. For now, Fed officials have indicated they are in a wait-and-see mode as they look for further progress on inflation and more clarity on the economic impact of President Trump’s policies. 
“The ongoing trade tensions and tariff implementations under President Trump’s administration have introduced significant uncertainty,” said Jay Woods at Freedom Capital Markets. “Investors are eager to understand how these policies are influencing the Fed’s economic outlook, especially concerning inflation and growth projections.”
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that investors are monitoring the March Fed meeting more closely than the previous three meetings. “Our survey respondents lean risk-off vs risk-on (34% vs 27%, respectively). We also asked what people think the other respondents expect, and more investors expect a risk-on reaction than people thought,” said Dennis DeBusschere, founder of 22V.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists expect this figure to be 0.800M, compared to last week’s value of 1.448M.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.291%, up +0.23%.

The focus today is not so much on the FEDs rate policy but Powells testimony and forward looking comments. Trumps tariffs and economic policies could weigh on the economy. Will that give Powell more leeway to cuts rates at the next FED meeting? While there is little to no expectation of a rate cut happening today, the question of how many future cuts we get this year (estimates range from zero to three) may become more transparent today.

I don't lay out a lean or bias on FOMC days and I don't give intra-day levels either. There will, most likely, be a flurry and volume spike at the release of the minutes but it will be Powells testimony and something (who knows what?) that the algos will grab onto and likely get the indices moving. It's going to take us where it takes us. Our Job today it to not create any pre concieved ideas or bias and simply trade what the market gives us. These are usually pretty solid days for us.
Bearish mode is still hanging in there as we start the day:

Could Powells testimony be enough to get us back to the 200DMA's? There a ways up there but it's possible.

All the major indices are down on the year with the market briefly hitting -10%+ for a formal declaration of a "bear" market. 

While markets are losing our A.T.M. (Asymmetric trade management) asset allocation model portfolio continues to shine. A portfolio that can make money when markets drop is just the ticket for this kind of investing enviroment.

I'll see you all in the live trading room shortly and we'll continue to build up our SPX setup for the day.