Welcome back traders! We had a great day yesterday. Not a perfect day. Our SPX debit didn't hit but our NDX did. I want to do a training review today on the nine main orderflow indicators we use and what is showing on our live scalping zoom feed. See below:

Supertrend, Parabolic SAR, Pivot point, Squeeze indicator, Audible order flow with Tickstrike, $TICK, $ADSPD, $VOLSPD are the ones we'll focus on today.

As I mentioned, our results were solid. 

I want to stress, once again, how important it is to have diversified strategies working each day. I can't remember the last time we've had a day where something wasn't losing money and yet, you'll see our YTD results are impressive. You never know what's going to work. Scalping is one example. We did scalp yesterday but no results were posted because the cover is set to expire this Friday but there's $2,500 potential profit sitting there. Our Theta fairys are another example. We hit a $170 profit last night in a couple hours. 

Sometimes the cash is pouring in on scalping and Theta fairys and sometimes we go a whole week without a single entry. You just never know what opportunities the market will offer up each day.
​Let's look at the markets:
Poor earnings results from GOOG and AMD as well as China issues with AAPL are dragging the futures down this morning. It's put us back to a neutral rating to start the day which means it will just be a crap shoot about direction (IMHO).

Heaven knows we've had plenty of volatility and movement this past week but in terms of actual ranges or directional bias there's absolutely nothing happening!  At some point we will move from consolidation to trending. Neutral days can be the trigger days for that to happen. I don't see that taking place today but you never know.

​March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are trending down -0.91% this morning as disappointing results from Alphabet and Advanced Micro Devices weighed on sentiment.
Alphabet (GOOGL) slid over -7% in pre-market trading after the Google parent reported weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue as growth in its cloud business slowed. Also, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slumped more than -8% in pre-market trading after the chipmaker posted weaker-than-expected Q4 data center revenue, and its full-year forecast for the data center business failed to impress investors.
Market participants now look ahead to a fresh batch of U.S. economic data, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from entertainment giant Disney.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s three main equity benchmarks closed higher. Palantir Technologies (PLTR) jumped about +24% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the data analytics company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued above-consensus Q1 and FY25 revenue guidance. Also, megacap technology stocks advanced, with Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) rising more than +2%. In addition, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) climbed over +8% after the artificial intelligence server maker announced that it would provide an FQ2 business update on February 11th. On the bearish side, Estee Lauder (EL) plunged more than -16% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the cosmetics and skin care company provided a downbeat FQ3 outlook and announced job cuts. Also, Merck & Co. (MRK) slumped over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after halting shipments to China of its Gardasil vaccine and offering a weak FY25 forecast.
A Labor Department report released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. JOLTs job openings fell to 7.600M in December, weaker than expectations of 8.010M. Also, U.S. December factory orders fell -0.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of -0.7% m/m and marking the largest decline in 6 months.
“[The latest reading on U.S. job openings] eases upside risks into Friday’s employment report in a way that is helpful for the Federal Reserve and markets,” said Krishna Guha at Evercore.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday, “As long as the economy and the labor market remain strong, I see it as appropriate for the Committee to be cautious in making further adjustments... I do not think we need to be in a hurry to change our stance.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 83.5% chance of no rate change and a 16.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season rolls on, and investors await new reports from notable companies today, including The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Qualcomm (QCOM), Arm Holdings (ARM), Uber Technologies (UBER), and Ford Motor (F). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the January ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will stand at 148K, compared to the December figure of 122K.
Investors will also focus on the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global Services PMI. Economists expect the January ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI to arrive at 54.2 and the S&P Global Services PMI to be 52.9, compared to the previous values of 54.1 and 56.8, respectively.
U.S. Trade Balance data will come in today. Economists foresee this figure standing at -$96.50B in December, compared to -$78.20B in November.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 2.400M, compared to last week’s value of 3.463M.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from Fed officials Barkin, Goolsbee, Bowman, and Jefferson.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.471%, down -0.93%.

Welcome to Tues. traders! Are we getting a little stability, post tariffs? I'm looking for a bullish day today. More on that in a minute. We had a good day yesterday considering we had no idea (no one did, no matter what they said) about the tariffs. Would they or wouldn't they be implemented. How would the market be effected? Yesterday was going to be a big unknown so we traded really small (in comparision to a normal day) and waited most of the day before entering our trades. We still netted an 11% gain on the day. It brings up the ever present question...what's more important, transparency or premium? You'll usually get the best premium on your credit trades if you establish them right at the open but you lack transparency and a lot can happen those next 6.5 hrs. before the market closes. If you wait, like we did yesterday where we only had 1-2 hours left in the day, you get much better transparency but much less premium. I think it tough to apply a universal rule that one is always better than the other. There was enough volatility yesterday that we picked transparency over premium. Every day this is one of our main questions we ask ourselves. Here's our results from yesterday. One last comment...on days that are "scary" or uncertain or volatile, scalping can yield great risk/reward setups. I'm a firm believer that you need as many tools as possible. 

Let's take a look at the markets
Technicals are still bearish after the weak last couple of days but I'm looking for that to change today.

Yesterday was incredibly bullish. Yes I know technicals are bearish. Yes I know we finished down on the day but...we spent most of the day climbing out of the hole that futures dug. Note the green candles.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.01%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.08% this morning as investors awaited the latest reading on U.S. job openings, comments from Federal Reserve officials, and corporate earnings reports from heavyweight names.
Stock futures initially moved lower after China retaliated to new U.S. tariffs. China’s Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced on Tuesday that it will impose a 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% tariffs on crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement vehicles, and pickup trucks. The measures are set to take effect on February 10th. China’s commerce ministry also announced that starting Tuesday, the country will implement export controls on tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum, and indium products. In addition, China said it would launch an antitrust probe into Google. This marked the resumption of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies, though China’s response was seen as restrained.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes ended in the red. Moderna (MRNA) sank over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 as vaccine makers retreated amid expectations that vaccine skeptic Robert Kennedy Jr. would be appointed to lead the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Also, automobile stocks dropped after President Trump announced tariffs on U.S. imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, with Tesla (TSLA) sliding more than -5% and General Motors (GM) falling over -3%. In addition, FedEx (FDX) slumped more than -6% after Loop Capital downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy. On the bullish side, IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) surged over +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the pet healthcare company posted upbeat Q4 results and issued solid 2025 EPS guidance.
Economic data released on Monday showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, stronger than expectations of 49.3 and marking the highest level in 2-1/3 years. Also, the U.S. January S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised upward to 51.2, beating the consensus of 50.1. In addition, U.S. construction spending rose +0.5% m/m in December, stronger than expectations of +0.3% m/m.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated on Monday that the central bank should be more cautious in reducing borrowing costs due to increasing uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration. “Now we’ve got to be a little more careful and more prudent of how fast rates can come down because there are risks that inflation is about to start kicking back up again,” Goolsbee said. Also, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic stated that he wants to wait “a while” before lowering interest rates again following last year’s cuts, given the uncertainty surrounding the direction of the U.S. economy in 2025. In addition, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said, “There’s no urgency for making additional adjustments.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 86.5% probability of no rate change and a 13.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season continues in full flow, with investors anticipating fresh reports from major companies today, including Alphabet (GOOGL), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), PepsiCo (PEP), Merck (MRK), Amgen (AMGN), Pfizer (PFE), and PayPal (PYPL). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. JOLTs Job Openings figures, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the December JOLTs Job Openings will arrive at 8.010M, compared to the November figure of 8.098M.
Investors will also focus on U.S. Factory Orders data. Economists expect this figure to be -0.7% m/m in December, compared to the previous number of -0.4% m/m.
In addition, market participants will be anticipating speeches from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.579%, up +0.79%.

Welcome to a new month of trading and a new set of market catalysts called "tariffs". The market got thrown into turmoil late Friday as the treat of tariffs turned into more of a reality. I say more of a reality vs. an actual reality because there is still a chance (slim?) that this goes away. The tariffs were implemented last Saturday but they are really "implemented" until tomorrow, Tuesday. The EU tariff threat seems like it will be worked out before implementation and Trump has mentioned he will be talking to Canada and Mexico today, one day before D-day. It's a massive game of chicken with huge potential for market swings. Futures certainly look ugly this morning but if PLTR reports the blow out numbers expected today and a resolution is found (possibly after the market closes) Tomorrow could be a big up day...could be. It's a big guessing game right now. Here's our results from Friday.

Let's take a look at the markets. Probably not a surprise that the technicals are bearish to start the day.
​

​The SPY ETF closed the week in negative territory at $601.82 (-1.00%). Buyers stepped in early Monday morning, absorbing the DeepSeek dip and driving prices higher in a steady grind with Momentum holding a higher low. By Friday, the gap was finally filled—but just as SPY approached new all-time highs, the tariff news hit, triggering a sharp reversal into the weekend.

My lean or bias today is neutral. Futures are down 100 points on /ES. Depending on the outcome of the negotiations that are planned with Canada and Mexico we could get a big swing one way or the other. To guess right now would be just that, a guess. 

Back to another Friday! Crazy how fast this week has gone for me. Let's all get out of the house this weekend and do something! We had a solid day yesterday, once again. I was on the wrong side of two big scalps which hurt me there but we are up $1,100 this morning so that should get us a better result to finish off the month. We couldn't quite make it a full month without a losing day. Close! Oh so close. Here's our results below:

We've brought in almost $30,000 of profit this month including the 1HTE's. Its been a great start to the year.
Let's take a look at the market and what's moving it. 

The Dow is certainly pushing on its ATH's but the rest of the indices are still stuck. We were finally able to get some weekly setups back on our oil faithful SPY/QQQ/IWM. Hopefully next week we'll be able to continue those.

The news that moved us, first down, then up late yesterday and apparently into this morning was the word "tariff". They look like they are coming. Maybe Saturday at the earliest. Is it a bluff? A bargining tool? We'll know when the markets open next Monday. PCE is out this morning and that could shake things up as well.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.46%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.73% this morning as solid earnings from Apple and Intel buoyed sentiment, while investors geared up for the release of the Federal Reserve’s first-line inflation gauge.
Apple (AAPL) rose over +3% in pre-market trading after the iPhone maker reported upbeat FQ1 results and offered reassuring FQ2 revenue guidance. Also, Intel (INTC) gained more than +2% in pre-market trading after reporting better-than-expected Q4 revenue.
Investors are also preparing for President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement this weekend. Trump stated that he would enact his threat to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico on February 1st, citing the flow of fentanyl and substantial trade deficits as key reasons for his decision. He also threatened China with tariffs but did not specify a level.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the green. International Business Machines (IBM) surged nearly +13% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after the IT giant posted upbeat Q4 results and provided strong FY25 revenue growth guidance. Also, Lam Research (LRCX) climbed more than +7% and was the top percentage gainer on the Nasdaq 100 after the semiconductor equipment firm reported better-than-expected FQ2 results and offered an upbeat FQ3 forecast. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) advanced over +2% after the EV maker revealed plans to start robotaxi operations and projected a “return to growth in 2025.” On the bearish side, United Parcel Service (UPS) tumbled more than -14% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the shipping giant issued below-consensus FY25 revenue guidance. Also, Microsoft (MSFT) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after the tech giant reported weaker-than-expected FQ2 Intelligent Cloud revenue and said its cloud-computing business will continue to grow slowly in FQ3.
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, in its initial estimate of Q4 GDP growth, said on Thursday that the economy grew at a +2.3% annualized rate, weaker than expectations of +2.7%. Also, U.S. December pending home sales plunged -5.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change and marking the biggest drop in 5 months. At the same time, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week unexpectedly fell by -16K to 207K, compared with the 224K consensus.
“Overall, the economy is on firm footing heading into 2025, which should support risk assets given the strong linkage between economic growth and corporate profits,” said Josh Jamner at ClearBridge Investments.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 84.0% chance of no rate change and a 16.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s March meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Exxon Mobil (XOM), AbbVie (ABBV), Chevron (CVX), Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and Charter Communications (CHTR) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the core PCE price index will stand at +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y in December, compared to the previous figures of +0.1% m/m and +2.8% y/y. 
Investors will also focus on the U.S. Employment Cost Index, which came in at +0.8% q/q in the third quarter. Economists expect the fourth-quarter figure to be +0.9% q/q.
U.S. Personal Spending and Personal Income data will be closely monitored today. Economists anticipate December Personal Spending to be +0.5% m/m and Personal Income to be +0.4% m/m, compared to November’s figures of +0.4% m/m and +0.3% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Chicago PMI will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 40.3 in January, compared to the previous value of 36.9.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward a speech from Fed Governor Michelle Bowman.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.534%, up +0.49%.

The trade docket is busy today. Our take profit already hit for last nights Theta fairy. So nice to start the day off with $100 dollars in our pocket. We'll keep scalping with what we setup yesterday and this morning. There's another $1,000 additional potential there. AAPL, ABBV, ALTR, ASUR, CAVA, CRNX, GCBC, GE, IWM , LENZ, SPY/QQQ, QTTB, SUM, TEAM, TSLA, V, VALU, XOM, 1HTE, 0DTE's with SPX, NDX and possibly NVDA and MSTR.

Welcome to Thursday, or what we call "FOMC hang over day"! I have to start off todays blog with this...I don't hype up what we do or what we've built here. I'm not the guy screaming about get rich quick or guarantees of profits. I actually try to downplay the opportunity but my gosh!... We've had one heck of a great month and I do think it's at least partially attributed to our unique setups. Who else has our earnings results? We intented the Theta fairy. We pioneered 1HTE's on Bitcoin. Our approach and order entry to trading 0DTE's is something I haven't seen anyone else do. Our scalping program hasn't had a single losing day this month and is on track for over $120,000 APR. Our passive, asset allocation portfolio is up almost 9% this month. I want to knock on wood and hopefully I'm not ruining our stellar run but man...I'm just proud of what we've done here.

Here's our results from yesterday:
​

Let's take a look at the markets.
​Buy mode is trying to get a foot hold.

Markets are still pinching. A big move could be incoming. 

The IWM finally seems to be stabilizing. That means we'll be back on our IWM millionaire maker trade today.

​March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are trending up +0.54% this morning as investors digested earnings reports from big U.S. tech companies.
Tesla (TSLA) gained over +2% in pre-market trading despite reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 results, as the EV maker revealed plans to begin robotaxi operations and projected a “return to growth in 2025.” Also, Meta Platforms (META) rose about +2% in pre-market trading after the social media and tech giant reported better-than-expected Q4 results and CEO Mark Zuckerberg said that 2025 would be a “really big year” for AI, though light Q1 revenue guidance capped gains. At the same time, Microsoft (MSFT) fell more than -3% in pre-market trading after the tech giant reported FQ2 Intelligent Cloud revenue that missed analyst expectations and said its cloud-computing business will continue to grow slowly in FQ3.
Investors now look ahead to fresh U.S. economic data, including the first estimate of fourth-quarter GDP and jobless claims figures, along with a slew of corporate earnings reports, with a particular focus on results from “Magnificent Seven” member Apple.
As widely expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yesterday. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate in a range of 4.25%-4.50%, following a string of rate cuts last year. In a post-meeting statement, officials reiterated that inflation remains “somewhat elevated” but omitted a reference to its progress toward their 2% target. Later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that the reference to inflation was merely an effort to shorten the sentence, rather than convey any significant message.
At a press conference, Powell stated that officials are in no hurry to lower interest rates, adding that the central bank is pausing to observe further progress on inflation. “With our policy stance significantly less restrictive than it had been and the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance,” he said.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower. Packaging Corp. (PKG) fell over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the maker of cardboard boxes issued below-consensus Q1 EPS guidance. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) slid more than -4% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow and Nasdaq 100 after Bloomberg reported that Trump administration officials were exploring additional curbs on the company’s chip sales to China. In addition, Danaher (DHR) slumped over -9% after the life sciences firm posted weaker-than-expected Q4 adjusted EPS. On the bullish side, F5 Inc. (FFIV) climbed more than +11% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the company reported upbeat FQ1 results and provided a strong FQ2 revenue forecast. 
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that preliminary U.S. wholesale inventories fell -0.5% m/m in December, stronger than expectations of +0.2% m/m. 
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 82.0% probability of no rate change and an 18.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in March.

Welcome back to FOMC day! We had another excellent day yesterday. It's been quite a month for us. I generally budget 10K of buying power for our scalping efforts and an additional 10K for our 1HTE's. We have more than doubled that money in the 1HTE's and are close to doubling it in scalping. That's $20,000 of income this month just with those two strategies. These are also strategies and setups you won't get anywhere else. It's also important to note, you don't need to day trade to have good potential. Our passive ATM portfolio is up almost 6% for the month. That's an annualized APR of 72%. Will we make 72% this year? Uh...probably not! Impressive none the less. Here's our overall results from yesterday.

Today's blog is short and sweet. We have FOMC today. For those of you that are new to our trading room it's worthwhile to review how we approach it. We have a bunch of earnings trades today and hopefully at least one 1HTE. We also have a "Extrinsic rich" Theta fairy working this morning. Other than that, we sit on our hands for most of the day until the FOMC minutes drop. We usually get a bit of a flutter at that point but its Powells testimony one half hour later that usually gets things moving. CME futures and analysts are predicting no rate cut so eyes will be on future looking statements. About 20-35 min. into Powells testimony is when we look to get our 0DTE's started. This is also when our scalping with the QQQ's starts. Today is about patience and discipline and sitting on our hands.
I do want to review our "game changer" calendar setups we are using with our scalping so if you can tune in to the zoom today, please do. I've got two live examples I put on last night to illustrate.

No bias or lean today. No levels. We try to stay open minded and just trade what we see later today. 
​See you all in the trading room shortly!

Welcome back traders! What an amazing day yesterday. It was an absolute home run. Now, to give us credit, we did corrrectly read the bearish flip on Friday and positioned ourselves coming into Monday with a bearish NDX setup. On the other hand, we clearly weren't expecting the kind of sell of we got. It was fantastic and we had a blowout success with all our trades. Scalping continues to kill it. We haven't had a single losing day all month and are right on pace for our $100,000 a year income goal. See our results below:

Let's take a look at the markets: Neutral rating to start out the day but there's some very bullish price action that happened under the surface yesterday that I'll share down below.
​

Intra-day the selloff might have seemed monumental but big picture? Meh...

​Nvidia's market cap fell $593 billion today, which was by far the largest single-day decline for any company in history. The loss in value was bigger than the market cap of 487 companies in the S&P 500. Remember folks...one stock does not make a market...in the long term.

This is what is MOST interesting to me and why I'm very bullish right now. ​Believe it or not, market breadth actually improved today. 64% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading above their 200 Day moving average, the most since December 13

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are up +0.09%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are up +0.16% this morning, stabilizing after yesterday’s dramatic selloff, while investors awaited the start of the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting as well as a flurry of U.S. economic data and corporate earnings reports.
The dollar strengthened after U.S. President Donald Trump said he preferred significantly larger across-the-board tariffs than the 2.5% reportedly favored by new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Trump also stated that he would soon impose tariffs on foreign-produced semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and certain metals to encourage manufacturers to produce domestically. “I have it in my mind what it’s going to be but I won’t be setting it yet, but it’ll be enough to protect our country,” Trump told reporters Monday night.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes closed mixed, with the benchmark S&P 500 sliding to a 1-week low and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slumping to a 1-1/2 week low. Chip stocks tumbled after the emergence of Chinese startup DeepSeek sparked concerns about the potential demand for the most advanced chips and data centers, with Nvidia (NVDA) plunging nearly -17% to lead losers in the Dow and Broadcom (AVGO) sinking more than -17%. Also, nuclear power stocks, anticipated to benefit from rising demand driven by energy-intensive data centers for AI technology development, came under pressure, with Vistra Corp. (VST) plummeting over -28% to lead losers in the S&P 500 and Constellation Energy (CEG) dropping more than -20%. In addition, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) fell over -10% after the lender issued below-consensus full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance. On the bullish side, AT&T (T) climbed more than +6% after the company posted upbeat Q4 results.
Economic data released on Monday showed that U.S. new home sales rose +3.6% m/m to 698K in December, stronger than expectations of 669K.
“What was shaping up to be a big week in the markets got even bigger with the disruption in the AI space,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “That could make this week’s megacap tech earnings even more critical to market sentiment.” 
The Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting later in the day. After cutting rates three times in late 2024, Fed officials are widely expected to keep them unchanged on Wednesday, given signs of a strong U.S. economy. Market watchers will likely focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference for any additional clues about when interest rates might be lowered further. 
Fourth-quarter corporate earnings season is in full swing, with investors awaiting new reports from notable companies today, including General Motors (GM), Starbucks (SBUX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), Stryker (SYK), Royal Caribbean (RCL), and RTX Corp. (RTX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the January CB Consumer Confidence index will stand at 105.7, compared to last month’s figure of 104.7.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. Economists expect the November figure to be +4.2% y/y, unchanged from October. 
U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data will be closely monitored today. Economists forecast December Durable Goods Orders at +0.3% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.4% m/m, compared to the prior figures of -1.2% m/m and -0.2% m/m, respectively.
The U.S. Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to come in at -13 in January, compared to the previous value of -10. 
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.559%, up +0.68%.

Another busy day in the trading room. I look forward to seeing you all there!

Welcome to Monday or should I say "profit day"? Let's talk about my mistake on Friday before we talk about our adjustment which should more than bail us out today. Our goal this year is risk management and consistency over profits. One thing we've learned with our three stage 0DTE entries is the longer you wait to add each stage the better it's worked out. I didn't wait long enough on our NDX on Friday. I had $700 at risk in stage one. That would have been a really nice profit if it hit (which it did) and not a big risk if it didn't but I got antsy and added the ratio too quickly. It wasn't needed. I needed to be more patient. We put on a bearish adjustment which should be more than enough to bring us right back into a nice profit this morning but...you can't depend on the /NQ being down 800 points every time you screw up. We'll take our profit at the open and count our blessings and try to do better today.  We've already got our long scalps working and those are already profitable so there's no excuses if we don't have a banner day today. Here's my results from Friday. If we can open up with a $9,000 profit on our NDX adjustment that would get us going today. Keep on crashing market!

Not surprising with the futures selling off this morning that our technicals are bearish.

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -2.43%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -3.78% this morning as worries mount that a cheaper artificial intelligence model from China could challenge the supremacy of U.S. technology.
Chinese artificial intelligence lab DeepSeek’s latest chatbot threatened to disrupt U.S. firms’ dominance in AI, triggering a global selloff in the tech sector. DeepSeek announced that it developed AI models nearly on par with American rivals, despite using inferior chips and less data. This has raised questions about the lofty valuations of AI-related stocks and Silicon Valley’s business model, which relies heavily on extensive research and development spending. On Monday, DeepSeek’s AI Assistant surpassed ChatGPT to become the highest-rated free application on the U.S. Apple App Store.
“While it remains to be seen if DeepSeek will prove to be a viable, cheaper alternative in the long term, initial worries are centered on whether U.S. tech giants’ pricing power is being threatened,” said Jun Rong Yeap, a market strategist at IG Asia.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s weekend spat with Colombia further contributed to the bearish sentiment. Trump initially announced sweeping tariffs on the country but abruptly reversed course after reaching a deal on the return of deported migrants.
Investors now look ahead to earnings reports from some of the biggest tech heavyweights, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, as well as the release of the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge and other key economic data later in the week.
In Friday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major equity averages ended lower. Texas Instruments (TXN) slumped over -7% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the analog chipmaker gave a lackluster Q1 forecast. Also, CF Industries Holdings (CF) slid more than -7% after JPMorgan Chase downgraded the stock to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $75. In addition, CSX Corp. (CSX) fell over -2% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. On the bullish side, Meta Platforms (META) rose more than +1% after CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the company plans to invest up to $65 billion in AI projects in 2025.
Economic data released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan’s U.S. consumer sentiment index was revised downward to 71.1 in January, weaker than expectations of 73.3. At the same time, the U.S. January S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, stronger than expectations of 49.8 and the fastest pace of expansion in 7 months. Also, U.S. existing home sales rose +2.2% m/m to a 10-month high of 4.24M in December, stronger than expectations of 4.19M.
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s post-policy meeting press conference will take center stage this week. After cutting rates three times in late 2024, Fed officials are widely expected to keep them unchanged on Wednesday, given signs of a strong U.S. economy. Market watchers’ focus will center on any additional clues about whether and when interest rates might be lowered further. U.S. rate futures currently price in slightly less than two interest rate cuts this year, with the first expected no earlier than June. 
Fourth-quarter earnings season shifts into high gear, and investors await fresh reports from high-profile companies this week, including Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), AT&T (T), T-Mobile US (TMUS), Starbucks (SBUX), ServiceNow (NOW), IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), Lam Research (LRCX), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), Caterpillar (CAT), Comcast (CMCSA), United Parcel Service (UPS), Altria (MO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), AbbVie (ABBV), Lockheed Martin (LMT), and General Motors (GM).
On the economic data front, the December reading of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, will be the main highlight. Investors will also be monitoring a spate of other economic data releases, including U.S. GDP (first estimate), the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, Durable Goods Orders, Core Durable Goods Orders, the S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a., the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories (preliminary), Crude Oil Inventories, Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales, the Employment Cost Index, Personal Income, Personal Spending, and the Chicago PMI.
In addition, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will deliver brief remarks on the economy and perspectives on mutual and community banks on Friday.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. New Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 669K in December, compared to 664K in November.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.534%, down -1.93%.

Heavens knows we've got plenty of earnings and economic catalysts this week to keep it interesting. 
We've got some I.V. coming back into the markets today with the futures selloff. It would be best for us if we keep crashing this morning. Don't rebound until we can grab our NDX profit.

My bias or lean today is slightly bullish. Now, let me quantify that! /NQ futures were down over 1,000 points when we put on our long /MNQ scalp and we are already "up" 200 points from there so when I say bullish, yes, we'll probably finish in the red today but up off the lows of early morning. The damage looks bad but in reality its just sucked out the last weeks positive days. Let's look at the charts below.

All today's done so far is take us back to Jan. 17th. Just a "flesh wound" 

Let's hope we can score a nice victory on our bearish NDX setup at the open and cruise on our long /MNQ scalp to a nicely profitable day. 

Trade docket today is going to focus on our /MNQ scalp. That could yield a massive gain. I don't remember our last losing day scalping and I don't intend to have one today. VIX or short vol trade of some kind. BA earnings JBLU earnings, BTC swing trade. GME?, We may add to a few of our long pairs setups. 1HTE, 0DTE's. We already booked out profit on Nat gas. That was a $3,400 profit. 

Let's have a great day today folks and hope we don't rebound too much before we can cash out of our NDX trade.

Welcome to Friday! I need to go to the DMV, take my dog to the Vet and pay bills so the weekend is welcome!
Yesterday was sooooo good. I'm starting to sound like a broken record but our focus on "consistency over profits" has been spot on. Focus on risk management and let the profits (or losses) fall where they may. Here's our results from yesterday. Of special note are the scalping and 1HTE results of almost $16,000 profit month to date. That's a run rate of $200,000 profit per annum. It's unlikely we hit that but our results are above our expectations. 

This is a trading room. We do a lot of "day trades" or "0DTE's". They are flashy and get a lot of attention but not everyone is able (or wants) to stare at a screen all day. I make a focused effort to make sure there are profit opportunities for everyone, regardless of what you're looking for. I wanted to highlight some of our longer term, weekly trades for this past week.
We had five weeklies on oil, silver, 10yr. bonds, wheat and bitcoin. They yielded 6%, 7%, 4%, 4% and 7% returns for us this week. I'm super proud of those results and that fact that we are putting up these opportunities each week is something you should take a look at if you haven't yet. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are trending down -0.21% this morning, taking a breather after the benchmark index scaled a fresh peak, while investors geared up for U.S. business activity data.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed in the green, with the benchmark S&P 500 notching a new all-time high and the blue-chip Dow posting a 6-week high. GE Aerospace (GE) climbed over +6% after the maker of jet engines posted upbeat Q4 results, issued solid FY25 adjusted EPS guidance, and announced a $7 billion stock buyback plan. Also, Union Pacific (UNP) advanced more than +5% after the railroad operator reported better-than-expected Q4 EPS. In addition, Netflix (NFLX) gained over +3% after Wolfe Research upgraded the stock to Outperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $1,100. On the bearish side, Electronic Arts (EA) tumbled more than -16% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 after the company reported weaker-than-expected preliminary FQ3 results and cut its full-year net bookings guidance. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Arm Holdings (ARM) slumping over -7% and Micron Technology (MU) sliding more than -4%.
The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week rose +6K to a 6-week high of 223K, compared with the 221K expected.
“Jobless claims may have surprised slightly to the upside, but they were well within the modest range established in recent months,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Employment continues to highlight US economic outperformance.”
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, U.S. President Donald Trump called on OPEC to reduce crude prices and said he would push for interest rate cuts. Trump stated he would demand an immediate reduction in rates, which he claimed had increased deficits and led to what he described as economic calamity under the Biden administration.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% chance of no rate change at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
On the earnings front, notable companies like American Express (AXP), Verizon (VZ), NextEra Energy (NEE), and HCA Healthcare (HCA) are slated to release their quarterly results today. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary reading, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the January Manufacturing PMI will come in at 49.8, compared to last month’s value of 49.4.
Also, investors will focus on the U.S. S&P Global Services PMI, which stood at 56.8 in December. Economists expect the preliminary January figure to be 56.4.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 4.19M in December, compared to the previous number of 4.15M.
The University of Michigan’s U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to arrive at 73.3 in January, compared to 74.0 in December.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.635%, down -0.04%.

We've got a modified theta fairy working order going into PMI release. Normally we need to deploy 15K of capital to get our $100 profit. This one is only using $850 dollars. We'll know about one half hour after the open if we get a fill.

Small speculators or what is commonly referred to as "The dumb money" are all in! Generally a sign of a top. 

Conversly, insiders or "The smart money" is showing the lowest buying interest in quite a while.

​Warren Buffet indicator hits AN ALL-TIME HIGH US stock market to GDP ratio reached 207%, exceeding the previous record of 200% set before the 2022 bear market. The ratio is also WELL above the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble top. By comparison, 20-year average is 120%...

What do I take away from all this? There's nothing to imply a crash is coming. (There rarely is). I do think it implies that returns may be muted this year. That's amazing for us. In particular I think our A.T.M. passive asset allocation portfolio has a great chance to vastly outperform the SP500.

BTC: We had one of our biggest profits yesterday with our 1HTE. I can almost guarantee you that will NOT happen today. It was a confluence of price action and Trump signing an executive order to establish a crypto strategic reserve. Things are much calmer this morning. $107,520 is resistance with support at $103,000. We'll see what we can find but I won't push it today if we can't get a clean entry with a decent risk/reward.

Welcome back traders! I had a lot of gratitude in my heart yesterday. I had an eye appt. that took up a good part of the trading day. As I was sitting in the waiting room another patient complained that they had to take off work to come to their appt. and they were losing money. We had a $3,000 profit day, mostly while I was getting my eyes poked. It doesn't always work that way and stock/option trading is anything but "passive" but it's still a great opportunity for all of us. 
I also want to mention that I think I'll be adding a short video commentary each day to the blog. Sometimes a verbal report can provide better insight than text. It will take a bit to get the "video studio" back up and running so hopefully next week.
I can't even express how happy I've been with our risk management this year. It may seem strange to get so excited on certain days where we trade all day and deploy 30K-40K of capital and make $300 bucks but its not about reward soley but rather risk/reward. Our goal this year is consistency. We are on track this month for $8,000 of profit in our scalping program, which is great and right on track with our annual goal of $100,000 of income but I'm most proud of the consistency of our results. A lot of this comes from LOWERING our profit goals. Hitting singles and doubles vs. aiming for home runs.
Here's our results from yesterday.

I would be remiss if I didn't point out our 1HTE results as well. If you want results that are different than the masses you need to do something different. I'm super proud of the fact that we do trades and setups that no one else has.

Let's take a look at the market.
Bullish bias is continuing with three strong days in the books.

SPY and QQQ are fast approaching their ATH's.

"Every trade makes money"! That's a bold statement but it's factual. The market is a zero-sum game. For every winner there's a loser. If you lost money in a trade you can assure yourself there was someone on the other side of that trade that made what you lost. In this sense, every trade makes money...for someone. Credit trades are tough today. I.V. is low. Generally you want to buy options when they are cheap and sell options when they are expensive. The problem with debit trades is they are directional in nature. You have to pick a direction and then you need to be right! Broken wing butterflies are a nice mix and have worked well for us. Here's a look at our SPX from yesterday.  We made $800 profit on $3,000 of buying power. Now that's great but it would actually have been a better example if it would have lost money. Our risk was about $80 dollars in this trade. It also clocked in at about 93% POP. Focus on risk management first and let the profit (or loss) fall where it may. 

​March S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESH25) are down -0.20%, and March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are down -0.49% this morning, taking a breather after a strong rally this week, with investors turning their attention to U.S. President Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos and a new round of corporate earnings reports.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended higher, with the benchmark S&P 500 rising to a new record high and the blue-chip Dow and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 notching 5-week highs. Netflix (NFLX) surged nearly +10% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the streaming giant reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results, raised its 2025 revenue guidance, and announced a $15 billion boost to its share repurchase program. Also, Oracle (ORCL) climbed more than +6% following the announcement of the $500 billion “Stargate” AI infrastructure project. In addition, Procter & Gamble (PG) gained over +1% after the company posted better-than-expected FQ2 results. On the bearish side, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) fell nearly -2% after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 MedTech sales.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the Conference Board’s leading economic index for the U.S. fell -0.1% m/m in December, in line with expectations. 
Meanwhile, market participants are looking ahead to U.S. President Donald Trump’s keynote address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, later in the day. They will listen closely for further details on Trump’s plans to introduce tariffs on goods imported to the U.S. 
“Markets are reacting positively to the initial wave of Trump policies, with investors showing enthusiasm reminiscent of the run-up to the election as they breathe a sigh of relief over the tariff announcements and the early stages of earnings season,” said Mark Hackett at Nationwide.
The fourth-quarter earnings season picks up pace, and investors await new reports from notable companies today, including GE Aerospace (GE), Texas Instruments (TXN), Union Pacific (UNP), American Airlines (AAL), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Elevance Health (ELV), and CSX Corp. (CSX). According to Bloomberg Intelligence, companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post an average +7.5% increase in quarterly earnings for Q4 compared to the previous year.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast this figure to arrive at 221K, compared to last week’s number of 217K.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be -0.1M, compared to last week’s value of -2.0M.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 99.5% chance of no rate change at next week’s monetary policy meeting.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.632%, up +0.72%.

My bias or lean yesterday was spot on. I was looking for a bullish day with the potential for a retrace later in the day. That played out to a T and allowed us to score an above avg. return on our SPX setup. Futures are down this morning but I'm still going with a very slight bullish bias which will be reflected in our first tranches in our 0DTE's.

​The stock market's CAPE ratio is clocking in at 37.0. It has only been higher than this twice in history. Good luck out there. We may be holding near ATH's but this market ain't cheap.

I look forward to seeing you all in our live trading room shortly! Let's see if we can put a four figure profit in our pockets, once again but more important. Lets keep risk in check and take a profit (or loss) as it comes.