Market analysis for Mar. 26th, 2025

Trade of the year?

Welcome back traders! We had another peacful, easy day yesterday. Our "focus on risk...build for potential" continues to make trading fun and stress free, all while giving us the potential to still pocket $1,000+ a day in profits. We'll talk more about that in our zoom this morning but right now I want to highlight the "best" trade we've done all year. How do I quantify best? That's a tough one. It's certainly not based on how much it made. It's based on hold time. ROI and how "safe" it was (P.O.P.) Here's the trade. It was on Nat gas. 1DTE. We put it on right before the close yesterday and we'll take it off this morning so less than a day trade, time wise. It's a $3,431 trade and it's up $130 dollars (or 4%) overnight and here's the best part. It's statistically a 99,5% POP trade. What does that mean? Well, there is statistically no trade can be called "guaranteed". The best probability you can get. The closest you can come to a guarantee is 99.5%. That's where this trade is. Check it out.

These opportunities are rare but I look for them every day. If you're doing the same trades everyone else is you'll get the same results Whether it's the Theta fairy, the Vampire trade, our unique 0DTE's or the 1HTE BTC trades, I'm proud of the fact that we have setups no one else has.

Let's take a look at our results from yesterday:

Once again, we choose to "Focus on risk...build for potential". I love this approach and the whole concept of it. Let's build setups that have the least amount of risk possible while still giving us "potential" for home run days. That's a hard task Increase safety while simultaneously providing high return potential. We build the trade with a high probability and then create "pockets" of high profit potential. Sometimes they hit...sometimes they don't but it really is the best of both worlds. I made $285 profit on our SPX 0DTE yesterday. It could have been $1,500 had it landed in one of the profit tents. It didn't. That's o.k. There wasn't a single moment yesterday where I was concerned with risk. That's how I like it. 

Let's look at the market to start today:
Buy mode continues! We are working those 200DMA's. Today should be telling. If we can hold them today, even if we don't go higher, that would be a huge win for the bulls.

We are now above the 200DMA on three of the four major indices. Next area of focus is the horizontal black lines. Above those and it's full stream ahead for the bulls.

Probably the best overall read on the market health is the VTI. A better, more rounded gauge. It also broke above it's 200DMA yesterday. I'll be watching this closely today to see if it holds or retraces.

June S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESM25) are trending down -0.07% this morning as cautious investors refrain from making big bets amid uncertainty about U.S. President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariffs.
Tariffs have continued to take center stage for investors. The Trump administration signaled that the upcoming wave of U.S. tariffs could be more targeted than initially expected, as nations hurried to obtain exemptions from the impending duties. On Tuesday, President Trump stated he didn’t want too many exceptions, but he would “probably be more lenient than reciprocal, because if I was reciprocal, that would be... that would be very tough for people.” Moreover, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that U.S. tariffs on copper imports could be implemented within several weeks, months ahead of the deadline for a decision.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s main stock indexes ended higher. International Paper (IP) climbed over +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after the paper and pulp giant issued solid FY25 revenue guidance. Also, the Magnificent Seven stocks gained ground, with Tesla (TSLA) rising more than +3% and Alphabet (GOOGL) advancing over +1%. In addition, Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD) rose more than +3% after BTIG upgraded the stock to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $431. On the bearish side, KB Home (KBH) slid over -5% after the homebuilder posted downbeat FQ1 results and cut its full-year housing revenue guidance.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to a 4-year low of 92.9 in March, weaker than expectations of 94.2. Also, the U.S. January S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. increased to +4.7% y/y from +4.5% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of +4.6% y/y. In addition, U.S. new home sales rose +1.8% m/m to 676K in February, weaker than expectations of 682K. Finally, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly fell to -4 in March, weaker than expectations of 8.
“Sentiment continues to wane among investors, consumers, and businesses as economic concerns and economic policy uncertainty take their toll. Until there’s more certainty on the tariff and macro front, sentiment and confidence remain vulnerable,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler on Tuesday voiced support for keeping interest rates unchanged for “some time,” while pointing out an uptick in some measures of Americans’ inflation expectations. “I am paying close attention to the acceleration of price increases and higher inflation expectations, especially given the recent bout of inflation in the past few years,” Kugler said.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in an 88.4% chance of no rate change and an 11.6% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in May.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Core Durable Goods Orders data, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists forecast February Durable Goods Orders at -1.1% m/m and Core Durable Goods Orders at +0.2% m/m, compared to the prior figures of +3.1% m/m and 0.0% m/m, respectively. 
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will also be released today. Economists expect this figure to be 1.500M, compared to last week’s value of 1.745M.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem throughout the day.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Dollar Tree (DLTR), Chewy (CHWY), Cintas (CTAS), Paychex (PAYX), and Jefferies Financial (JEF) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.316%, up +0.19%.

Basically, we are back to waiting around for more Tariff news!

Trade docket today: Booking profit on the "best trade ever", Natgas. Booking profit on our modified Theta Fairy, Copper/Oil pairs trade, Continue working our long /MNQ with /NQ cover scalp. CHWY, DLTR, GME, KBH? 1HTE BTC and 0DTE SPX (once we take profit on the Nat gas 0DTE)

My bias or lean today is bullish. Nothing really to talk about here. You simply have to be. Pushing above the 200DMA and your bearish? That's a tough one to justify. Could Trump "tweet a tariff" and send us back down? You better believe it! Still...you've just got to go with the probablities here. Up we go.

Let's look at the intra-day levels on BTC and /ES as those will be the focus once we book profits on the NatGas 0DTE.
​/ES: While the price action is bullish, you can see some heavy overhang.  The risk is certainly asymmetric to the downside, meaning much bigger potential moves down vs. up. Heavy resistance at 5828. It's righ where we sit as I type. Then 5845 and 5883. Bulls need to get above the 5828 as a first goal today. 5783 and 5745 are support levels.

BTC: Bitcoin gave us a small trade yesterday but it was over 300% ROI! Not bad I'd say. 88,770 is resistance with 87,667 and 86,759 working as support. We may need to do a 0DTE vs. 1HTE today to get any premium.

I look forward to seeing you all in the live trading room shortly. I do have my last eye appt. today so it will break up the day a bit but shouldn't disrupt our trading too much.