Market analysis for Feb. 26th, 2025

Welcome to the midweek point! We had a pretty darn good day  yesterday. Everything we touched worked. We had about a $600 dollar profit on the SPX but the 4DTE puts that we had rolled expired worthless and that puts our result at a loss for the day overall but, we've brought in some good income on that position over the last four days. Here's a look at our results. Net liq ended up about 2K for me by the end of the day.

We've been proiftable on both of our Nat gas trades for the last two months but controlling buying power is still an issue with this underlying. Our new trade for this next month looks amazing (If I do say so myself!) Cash flowing approx. $120/day with the potential for a $3,500 profit on a $5,500 investment. I love it!

Technicals are still slightly in the sell zone but I think the bulls may finally grab a hand hold today. They've been trying for the last week to push higher but just haven't had the strength to overpower the selling. Is today the day? Futures are up solidy right now, as I type but that's happened several times since retracing from ATH's. I think they hold today. We've got a long /MNQ scalp working this morning.

I apologize but no charting or levels today.  This is all I'm getting out of my Trendspider software, at the moment.

NOTE: We've got a little different schedule today. I've got another eye appt. right in the middle of the trading day so we'll get as much working this morning as possible. I'll start our 0DTE's off with 1DTE's that we'll finish off tomorrow. Zoom session will be live in the A.M. for the portfolio/results review and then I should be back before the close. /MCL ladder, /NG, CAVA, DIA, FSLR, INTU, WDAY, NVDA, CRM, SNOW, EBAY, 0DTE's (started as 1DTE's).

March Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQH25) are trending up +0.77% this morning, rebounding from yesterday’s losses, while investors turn their attention to a highly anticipated earnings report from AI darling Nvidia.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indexes closed mixed. Sempra (SRE) plunged over -18% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the company posted downbeat Q4 results and cut its FY25 EPS guidance. Also, Nvidia (NVDA) dropped more than -2% and was the top percentage loser on the Dow after a Bloomberg report stated that some officials in the Trump administration are seeking to impose additional restrictions on the type of Nvidia chips that can be exported to China without a license. In addition, Tesla (TSLA) slumped over -8% after data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association showed that the company’s sales in Europe tumbled 45% in January from a year ago. On the bullish side, Solventum Corp. (SOLV) surged more than +9% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Thermo Fisher agreed to buy the company’s purification and filtration unit for about $4.1 billion.
Economic data released on Tuesday showed that the U.S. Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to an 8-month low of 98.3 in February, weaker than expectations of 102.7 and marking the biggest monthly drop since August 2021. Also, the U.S. December S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. increased to +4.5% y/y from +4.3% y/y in November, stronger than expectations of +4.4% y/y. In addition, the U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to +6 in February, stronger than expectations of -3.
“Consumer confidence continues to come off its election-fueled sugar high from November. Economic uncertainty remains elevated, whether that’s around tariffs or more US-centric data like inflation or retail sales,” said Bret Kenwell at eToro.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Tuesday that the central bank must stay resolute in its fight against inflation and highlighted the risk of longer-term inflationary headwinds. “It makes sense to stay modestly restrictive until we are more confident inflation is returning to our 2% target,” Barkin said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 97.5% probability of no rate change and a 2.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting in March.
Meanwhile, prospects for early action on U.S. President Donald Trump’s tax cut plans improved as the Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives passed a budget blueprint late on Tuesday that includes deep reductions in safety-net programs like Medicaid.
Investors are eagerly awaiting Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for release after the market close. Sales of the company’s AI chip, Blackwell, will be in focus, with analysts eyeing future demand, especially after China’s DeepSeek claimed it could train competitive AI models with significantly fewer resources.
“Nvidia’s numbers could well be a make-or-break event for the market, at least in the short term,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Prominent companies like Salesforce (CRM), TJX (TJX), Lowe’s (LOW), and Snowflake (SNOW) are also set to report their quarterly figures today.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on U.S. New Home Sales data, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists foresee this figure standing at 679K in January, compared to 698K in December.
U.S. Crude Oil Inventories data will be released today as well. Economists expect this figure to be 2.500M, compared to last week’s value of 4.633M.
In addition, market participants will hear perspectives from Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic throughout the day.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 4.304%, up +0.14%.

I'll see you all in the zoom shortly!