Market analysis for Sept. 6th, 2024

We had another good day yesterday. In hindsight, my three day losing streak may have just come from swinging too big. Our trades these past few days have not been massive, yet we've managed to bring in around $3,000 a day in profits. It's important to note that our last piece of our three day losing streak that started last Thurs. ended yesterday. Our NDX roll expired at a full loss of -11K. It was already reflected in our net liq as it's been worthless for several days but we do need to record that result. Our day trades worked out well though and we are set up well to start the day with our /MNQ scalping. There is $750 dollars of profit potential sitting in that trade for the day. I want to talk up our scalping results, once again. $400 dollars a day is close to a six-figure annual income and that's what we are on track for. Need an extra 100K a year? Check out our daily scalping results. 

Here's our results from our day trades from yesterday:

Sell mode continues for the market. No surprise here. 

Something interesting if you look at the four major indices we trade. They are ALL at very critical levels of either support/resistance or consolidation zones. The next few days of trading could usher in some big directional moves.

NFP is the key catalyst for today. 
​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are trending down -0.65% this morning as investors geared up for the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report to gauge the extent of the Federal Reserve’s easing.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. McKesson (MCK) plunged over -9% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after the medical distributor issued below-consensus Q2 adjusted EPS guidance. Also, Copart (CPRT) slid more than -6% and was the top percentage loser on the Nasdaq 100 after reporting weaker-than-expected Q4 EPS. In addition, C3.ai (AI) slumped over -8% after the enterprise software maker reported weaker-than-expected Q1 subscription revenue. On the bullish side, Tesla (TSLA) climbed more than +4% after announcing plans to roll out its Full Self Driving system in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, subject to regulatory approvals. Also, Amazon.com (AMZN) rose over +2% and was the top percentage gainer on the Dow after Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of the stock with an Overweight rating and a $230 price target.
The ADP National Employment report released on Thursday showed that U.S. private nonfarm payrolls increased by 99K in August, significantly lower than the consensus figure of 144K and the smallest increase in 3-1/2 years. Also, the U.S. August ISM services index unexpectedly rose to 51.5, stronger than expectations of 51.3. In addition, U.S. Q2 nonfarm productivity was revised upward to +2.5% q/q from +2.3% q/q, while Q2 unit labor costs were revised lower to +0.4% q/q from +0.9% q/q. Finally, the number of Americans filing for initial jobless claims in the past week fell -5K to 227K, compared with the 231K expected. 
“[Friday’s] payroll report could be softer than expected given the slowdown in ADP estimates,” said Jeffrey Roach at LPL Financial. “If the payroll report surprises investors and comes in weaker than expected, the likelihood of a 50 basis-point cut increases at the upcoming Fed meeting.”
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 57.0% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 43.0% probability of a 50 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. monthly payroll report, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that August Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 164K, compared to July’s figure of 114K.
A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 44% of investors expect a “risk-on” market reaction to the jobs report, 27% anticipate “risk-off,” and 29% foresee a “negligible/mixed” response.
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will also be closely watched today. Economists expect August figures to be +0.3% m/m and +3.7% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +3.6% y/y.
The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today as well. Economists expect this figure to ease to 4.2% in August from 4.3% in July.
In addition, market participants will be looking toward speeches from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Christopher Waller.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.701%, down -0.84%.

Trade docket for today: /MNQ, QQQ scalping. DELL, DIA, DOCU, FSLR, IWM, 0DTE's. Let's see if we can knock down another $3,000 profit day. That would be a nice finish to the week.

My bias today: Bearish. NFP is the catalyst and could shoot us higher but, if the "the trend is your friend", then you are bearish right now.

Intra-day 0DTE levels:
​/ES; Two key levels for me today. Above 5570 the bulls have a chance Below 5469 the bears continue to pounce.

/NQ: Same with the Nasdaq. Above 18979 the bulls have a chance. Below 18698 the bear push continues.

Let's get that solid finish to the week traders! See you in the trading room shortly.