Market analysis for Sept. 26th, 2024

Welcome to Thursday! Our weeks been pretty good and yesterday continued that trend. We had another "excellent" day with both our day trades making money AND our net liq was up. That was a bit of a surprise as our Nat gas trade hurt us yesterday after helping us on Weds. A couple of notes about yesterday. We rolled some of our SPX puts to today. Those obviously look great this morning with futures up. Our NDX event contract made us 220% ROI but has a 1,100% potential. These setups can be fantastic every once in a while. They are a valuable addition to our 0DTE's. If you're not trading them with us I invite you to come check them out. No cost to open an account and you can start trading with $20 dollars. Come give it a go!

Here's a look at our day yesterday. It was pretty darn solid. 

Futures are popping today with MU earnings helping to the upside. We have an MU earnings trade working and that should cash flow perfectly for us today.
​December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ24) are trending up +1.33% this morning as market participants cheered forecast-beating quarterly results and guidance from semiconductor giant Micron, while also awaiting a flurry of U.S. economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials.
Micron Technology (MU) surged over +15% in pre-market trading after the memory chipmaker reported stronger-than-expected Q4 results and provided above-consensus Q1 guidance.
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed. Global Payments (GPN) slumped over -6% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after BTIG, William Blair, and Seaport Research downgraded the stock. Also, KB Home (KBH) slid more than -5% after the homebuilder reported weaker-than-expected Q3 EPS. In addition, General Motors (GM) fell over -4% after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock to Underweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $42. On the bullish side, Vistra (VST) climbed about +6% and was the top percentage gainer on the S&P 500 after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock to $132 from $110. Also, chip stocks advanced, with Intel (INTC) rising over +3% to lead gainers in the Dow and Nvidia (NVDA) gaining more than +2%.
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. new home sales fell -4.7% m/m to 716K in August, a smaller decline than expectations of 699K.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler stated on Wednesday that she “strongly supported” the U.S. central bank’s decision last week, noting that it would be appropriate to implement additional rate cuts if inflation continues to ease as anticipated. “The labor market remains resilient, but the FOMC now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy as disinflation continues in the right trajectory,” Kugler said.
U.S. rate futures have priced in a 39.3% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 60.7% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at November’s monetary policy meeting.
Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver pre-recorded opening remarks at the 2024 U.S. Treasury Market Conference later in the day. Also, a slew of other Fed officials will speak today, including Collins, Bowman, Williams, Kugler, Cook, and Kashkari.
On the earnings front, notable companies like Costco Wholesale (COST), Accenture (ACN), Jabil Circuit (JBL), and CarMax (KMX) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the Commerce Department’s final estimate of gross domestic product, which is set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that U.S. GDP will stand at +3.0% q/q in the second quarter, compared to the first-quarter figure of +1.4% q/q.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Durable Goods Orders data, which came in at +9.9% m/m in July. Economists foresee the August figure to be -2.8% m/m.
U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders data will be reported today. Economists estimate this figure to come in at +0.1% m/m in August, compared to the previous number of -0.2% m/m.
U.S. Pending Home Sales data will come in today. Economists expect the August figure to be +0.9% m/m, compared to the previous figure of -5.5% m/m.
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be reported today as well. Economists estimate this figure to be 224K, compared to last week’s number of 219K.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.776%, down -0.24%.

Technicals are now pinned to the upside with bullishness.

Price action continues to support the bullish bias.

Charlie once again putting up some interesting data. ​US Small Caps are up 7% over the last 10 trading days while US Large Caps are down 4%. The 11% spread is the largest 10-day Small Cap outperformance ever. $IWM $SPY
​This could be an interesting setup for a pairs trade.

Trade docket for today: /MCL, /MNQ and QQQ scalping, FSLR, IWM, MU, SPY?, GLD/NEM, ORCL? COST, BB 0DTE's.

My bias and lean today has to be bullish. The futures are just up too much to be anything else. 

Let's see if we can find some intra-day 0DTE levels:
​/ES; Futures are pumping today! Two key levels for me. 5865 is the resistance level and 5806 is the support. Between those levels is just meaningless chop for me.

/NQ; The Nasdaq is doing everything it can to catch up to the other indicies. The push higher is impressive. The moves are big enough now that I'm looking at levels on a one day chart vs. the normal 2-4 hr. chart. The next big resistance area is at 20677 with support at 20029.

BTC: Bitcoin has been firming up quite nicely. I've got a binary trade on BTC that is will NOT hit a new ATH this year. It's got a 110% ROI potential. Chech out our binary trade link. these are some of the funnest trades we do.
Key levels for me today. 65,831 is resistance and 62,839 is support.

Let's have a great day. I'll see you all in the trading room!