Market analysis for Sept. 19th, 2024

Welcome back traders! We had an 'excellent" day yesterday with FOMC. I need to define "excellent" and use that term with more consistency. We measure two key metrics each day. Our Net liq, or account value and whether its going up or down and our day trades. With the Theta Fairy and Scalping it can be nine different trades including all our 0DTE's with our event contracts. Sometimes our day trades can fail to generate a profit but our net liq goes up because of our model portfolio holdings. Likewise, sometimes our day trades make money but our net liq is down on the day because our holdings in the model portfolio go down. Yesterday we had a green number on our net liq. Our accts. went up in value AND, our day trades made money. That's the qualifier for an "excellent" day.
FOMC is an interesting day. As traders we KNOW that it's going to offer up the opportunity to make money. It's just up to us as traders to capitalize on what that market gives us. It's not an easy day to trade. It wasn't too messy for us. We could have done better. We could have done worse. Here's a look at our day: 

Let's look at the markets as we start Thursday after the FOMC day.

Technicals are pinned bullish now. Futures are soaring as I type!

 Looking at the futures we've got the /ES back up to ATH's and DIA (/YM) as well. 

Trade docket for today: /MNQ scalping, IWM, MU, FDX, LEN, FDS, QQQ, DG/WMT pair, GS/RJF pair, LW/NWL pair, MRK/UNH pair, 0DTE's.

My bias or lean today is begrudgingly bullish. I say begrudgingly because the futures are currently pinned to the upside. Obviously bullish but how much more upside do we have today?

​September S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ESU24) are up +1.48%, and September Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQU24) are up +2.03% this morning on expectations the Federal Reserve’s half-percentage-point rate cut will steer the U.S. economy toward a “soft landing,” while investors awaited a new round of U.S. economic data and an earnings report from delivery services giant FedEx.
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by a half percentage point yesterday, marking its first rate reduction in over four years. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 11 to 1 to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5.00% after maintaining it at its highest level in two decades for over a year. In their statement, policymakers indicated they will contemplate “additional adjustments” to rates depending on “incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.” At the same time, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned not to presume that the half-point move establishes a pace that policymakers will maintain. “This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%,” Powell said in a press conference.
Projections released after the Fed’s two-day meeting revealed that a slim majority, 10 out of 19 policymakers, supported cutting rates by at least an additional half-point during the two remaining 2024 meetings. Also, Fed officials penciled in an additional percentage point of cuts in 2025, according to their median forecast.
“The markets got what they wanted - a big first cut by the Fed. Now we’ll see if they remain satisfied,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “The Fed has a well-deserved reputation for not rushing, so there’s the potential for some disappointment if it’s seen to be moving too slowly, especially if economic data continues to soften. But today they delivered.”
In yesterday’s trading session, Wall Street’s major indices ended in the red. ResMed (RMD) slumped over -5% and was the top percentage loser on the S&P 500 after Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to Underperform from Peer Perform with a price target of $180. Also, chip stocks lost ground, with Intel (INTC) sliding more than -3% to lead losers in the Dow and Nasdaq 100 and Nvidia (NVDA) falling nearly -2%. On the bullish side, U.S. Steel (X) advanced over +1% after a U.S. security panel granted Nippon Steel permission to refile its plans to acquire the company for $14.1 billion. In addition, Intuitive Machines (LUNR) surged more than +38% after announcing that it was awarded a NASA contract worth up to $4.82 billion for providing communication and navigation services for near-space missions. 
Economic data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. building permits, a proxy for future construction, rose +4.9% m/m to a 5-month high of 1.475M in August, stronger than expectations of 1.410M. Also, U.S. August housing starts rose +9.6% m/m to a 4-month high of 1.356M, stronger than expectations of 1.310M.
Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 62.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut and a 37.1% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next central bank meeting in November.
On the earnings front, notable companies like FedEx (FDX), Lennar (LEN), and Darden Restaurants (DRI) are slated to release their quarterly results today.
Today, all eyes are focused on the U.S. Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, set to be released in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that the September Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will come in at -0.8, compared to last month’s value of -7.0.
Also, investors will focus on U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data. Economists predict this figure will hold steady at 230K, consistent with last week’s number.
U.S. Existing Home Sales data will be released today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 3.92M in August, compared to 3.95M in July.
The U.S. Conference Board Leading Index will be reported today as well. Economists expect the August figure to be -0.3% m/m, compared to the previous number of -0.6% m/m.
In the bond market, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is at 3.707%, up +0.38%.

Let's take a look at levels today:
​/ES; Two key levels for me today. 5747 as resistance and 5696 as support. Above is bullish. Below is bearish.

/NQ: Two key levels for me in the /NQ as well. 19,856 is resistance and 19659 is support. Above is bullish. Below is bearish.

BTC: Bitcoin is popping with equities. 64,402 is resistance. 62,093 is support.

We have a heavy trade docket today but it will be a half day for me. I'm headed to a local traders mastermind today just down the road from me at 11:00 am MST so we'll get everything done quickly this morning!

Not every day will be "excellent" but let's give is another try!! See you in the trading room!